John Bonnes

Spit out my tea at "startling variety of woodland creatures".

Aaron and John talk about the Twins losing hitting coach James Rowson, Royce Lewis winning MVP of the Arizona Fall League, the team's most valuable long-term building blocks, what happened 28 years ago, and the making of playoff legacies. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

Throughout the season, the Twins bullpen was a concern. Should it be a concern this offseason? Who better to ask than former Twins closer, three-time All-Star , Fox Sports North analyst and closet nerd Glen Perkins? In this year’s Twins Daily Offseason Handbook, Perkins dives into the improvement of the Twins relief corps (and core). As a former reliever, he’s able to share changes the pitchers made that increased their effectiveness beyond their projections back in April. Like this:Throughout the 2019 season Littell found himself on the Rochester-to-Minnesota shuttle. Most times it was not due to performance, but by being one of the few guys who had options. When he returned to Minnesota on July 3rd he was a new pitcher. He was sent down in June with instructions to alter his arm swing and delivery to try and help add velocity. Littell was acquired from the Yankees in 2017 as somewhat of a soft-tossing strike-thrower and, along with the move to full-time bullpen arm, came back from Triple-A throwing harder than ever before. After averaging just over 92 MPH in 2018, Littell saw his FB velocity jump to nearly 95 mph while his swinging strike rate went from 7.7% to 12.8% in 2019. The focus on this offseason is starting pitching, which seems odd considering as recently as the trade deadline the focus was 100% on the bullpen. Perkins's review of the more important arms is a feel-good story, but it also gets to the main question that must be answered: should it still be a priority? You’ll review the evidence and decide for yourself if you preorder the Offseason Handbook. By preordering it, you get it days before those who wait, and the $10 investment provides a whole hot stove’s worth of information over the offseason. Grab it now. Click here to view the article

Each month, we try to check in on the site and the community and share what we find. Yesterday, that meant reviewing stories and traffic the site garnered in September. Today we’ll dive into community building and the forums.Community Building Usually when we talk about community building, we’re talking about the forums, but this time we had an actual face-to-face event: the ALDS Game 1 Watch Party at Brothers Bar & Grill. It actually happened in October, but I don’t want to wait until next month to talk about what a great time that was had. First, we had 315 people show up, which filled up the enormous downstairs area of Brothers and spilled into the upstairs as well. Second, these are 315 Twins Daily fanatics, so the crowd was far more intense than an actual Twins game. Every pitch was scrutinized and agonized and dissected. The celebrations were raucous and the groans were shared. The next night I went to the Twins own watch party at Target Field, and they did a great job, and it’s in a great space, but there was no question in my mind which was the better experience. It was a powerful night. It might have been the highlight of my season. I would love this to be a more regular occurrence in 2020. I don’t mean just postseason games, though god knows I would like that to be a more regular occurrence too. Stay tuned, because bringing together fans seems like a very natural and impactful endeavor that Twins Daily should attempt. If you have any ideas for that, I’d love to hear them below. Forums Another thing that didn’t happen in September, but I want to share was a recent topic by Brock praising and thanking the moderators. We have had several new moderators join the ranks lately to help with all the increased traffic we’ve had, and I can tell you, it’s a lot of work, as I detailed in a response to the post. So I’d appreciate it if you stop by to let them know how much you value their contributions to the site. The high level numbers for September were great: Registrations – 98 (up 754% from 2018) !!!!!!!!Topics –289 (up 65% from 2018)Posts – 15,563 (up 140% from 2018)If you’re not part of those numbers yet, I assure you, we want to hear from you. There should be a lot to talk about this offseason. Just register and tell us your thoughts. Here are some standouts:The most liked post of the month came from SwainZag, in a thread that challenged the idea of resting players when so many in the lineup were hurt in September.The Twins Daily contributor who got the most likes was Blake, and it looks like most of them were in our popular game threads, including this one versus Cleveland.The (non-game-thread) topic with the most comments was the news that Michael Pineda had been suspended for a banned substance.The Twins daily member with the most posts was FlauerPauer, who should also get credit for a helluva user name. mrtwinsfan and LVTTwinsfan finished second and third.One piece of not so good news. While we’ve had lots of interaction on stories, we haven’t had many topic started in the forums. If you have a question, a thought, an opinion, some research or find a story you want to share, I’d encourage you to head to the forums to starts a conversation. Our community rarely bites too much, and in fact the opposite is true: they really appreciate the effort. The top topic started by a member last month was this research on the 2020 payroll, started a week before the season ended by amgjt.Thank you to everyone for sharing your thoughts and keeping the Twins Daily forums a civil, entertaining and informative place. October has already been incredibly active in the forums and stories. I hope you enjoy the offseason as much as the regular season. Blogs Finally, I’ll encourage you, when you find your voice a bit more, to check out Twins Daily’s blogs. September we had seven active blogs, but an interesting thing has happened in October: they really fired up. I count 12 blogs in October and we’re only a little halfway through the month. If you’re looking for more baseball – and I think a lot of us are looking for more baseball in October - stop by and check them out, urge them to keep writing, and respond to their thoughts. The blogs are right here and they’re always a link at the top of the Twins Daily menu. Thank you for checking in with us. If you have any ideas for Twins Daily, or feedback that you want to share, please don’t hesitate to give it, good or bad, in the comments below. I promise to read your thoughts and respond when appropriate. Click here to view the article

Pitching will be an especially important subject for the Twins this offseason. So we’re especially excited that Matthew Trueblood, known for his analysis surrounding pitching at Baseball Prospectus, will be joining our guest writer ranks this year. His meaty essay in the 2020 Offseason Handbook takes a look at a defensive aspect that was mostly overlooked as the season progressed: the Twins' decreasing use of the shift.Here's a taste: Shifting is not a universal good; it must be implemented thoughtfully and effectively. Still, the high-level evidence suggests the Twins were better when they deployed shifts more often. Download attachment: Trueblood offseason 2019-10-22.JPG In August, only the Pirates allowed a higher BABIP than did the Twins. In September, only the Tigers and Cubs did. In analysis of individual pitchers, BABIP is often treated as an indicator of luck, but at the team level, it speaks to the quality of the defense. Minnesota’s was, down the stretch, one of the worst in baseball. Not only does Trueblood breakdown the impacts of decreasing the frequency of the shift, he breaks down the impact and the variation behind each individual starting pitcher. And since this is an offseason-focused publication, he looks at the free agent starting pitchers they Twins might acquire and their history (and in some cases, criticism) of using the shift. It’s all done so you can come up with your own offseason blueprint and see how it compares to that of the Twins brain trust. Secure your digital copy now, and you'll get it before it's officially available to the public (ETA is around the conclusion of the World Series). You can name your price but the minimum for preorders is $10. You can only get it early if you preorder, so grab yours now! Click here to view the article

On a monthly basis we like to check in on the health of the site and bring news and notes to the community. September was a remarkable month in stories, authors, traffic, and community building. Let’s cover it.Stories and Authors You are hearing from more and more writers at Twins Daily, as we pointed out in last month’s report, and we find that thrilling. But since September was the last month of the third quarter, I got another thrill: I got to pay them, some for the first time. We sent out over $4500 to the contributing writers that are responsible for the stories you read on the front page. “Thrill” might sound strange, but that was literally the whole point of Twins Daily, and really the goal when we first created the Offseason Handbook (which proceeded Twins Daily) eleven years ago. Seth, Nick, Parker and I had all blogged about the Twins for years without making a cent. We wanted to find a better way for bloggers to get something for their work, because we wanted to continue to read independent voices. So Twins Daily pays all our contributing writers the income the site makes directly from their stories from ads. If someone views a story that has been promoted to the front page, we count those page views and send revenue the site to the writer. In September, that was good news in two ways. First, we had record traffic, which I’ll get to soon. And second, our ad provider provided a better return on those ad spaces, averaging close to $6 per 1000 page views. This doesn’t slay the blogging dragon by any means: on a per story basis, I’m still legitimately embarrassed that we can’t pay our writers more for their insights. We recognize we are paying less than their work is worth, but we pass along what we make. We believe they should have it. Here are a couple of other story highlights from the month: 21 different writers had at least 2000 views of their stories in September.The most read writer was Cody Christie.The most read story was whether or not the Twins could hold off the Yankees for the home run record. (Spoiler alert: they did.)Other very popular stories included Nick Nelson’s review of Kyle Gibson’s Twins’ career and Cody’s preview of Luis Arraez’ Twins’ career.TrafficIt might surprise you to find out that September has traditionally been a pretty slow month at Twins Daily, or at least it might surprise you if you don’t realize we launched in 2012, right when the Twins took a downturn. Since then, the Twins have only had three Septembers that weren’t playing out the string: 2015 when they made a too-little-too-late charge at the Wild Card, 2017 when they won the second AL Wild Card and this year when they were Central division champions. The most page views we’ve ever had in September was that 2017 season, when we had 734K page views with 62,000 users visiting. This September blew those away: Readers – 156,976 (up 225% from 2018)Sessions – 397,237 (up 138% from 2018)Page Views – 1,032,480,367 (up 114% from 2018)Turns out a pennant race is good for traffic. Who knew? This offseason should be interesting for Twins Daily. We’ll continue to provide daily coverage of the Twins throughout the offseason, and a lot of community-building and discussion takes place over the next four months. I would love to see those 156K visitors from September drop in occasionally. Traffic for October suggests they are. So if you find a story or discussion that you like, please share it with your friends or followers via email, Facebook or Twitter. The Twins get an offseason, but Twins Daily doesn’t. We just keep analyzing and discussing, which brings us to or forums. We’ll discuss that tomorrow. If you have any questions, concerns or thoughts, I'd love to discuss them in the comments section. Have at it gang. Click here to view the article

If you're into offseason talk, this includes quite a bit of discussion in the last half hour both about what other AL teams might be thinking this offseason, and about the Twins ability (or inability, we'll see?) to take risks this offseason.

Aaron and John talk about their preseason over/under bets, why the Twins need to finally take some risks, the less-juiced playoff baseball, Rocco Baldelli being nice at Brasa, and the Yankees losing to someone other than the Twins again. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. http://directory.lib...dex/id/11711168 Click here to view the article

Also I love the idea of Hrbek just being g a full time bear manager with the club. It feels like that’s his calling.

Can’t help but notice he didn’t say they could squeeze Astudillo into that service elevator with the bear.

Aaron and John talk about the ALDS and its depressing end, and then set up the offseason with payroll, arbitration, and free agent decisions to come. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. http://directory.lib...dex/id/11615684 Click here to view the article

Every new manager has certain shortcuts, certain fallbacks. They’re not bad things; they’re crucial to survival. In the majors, the game moves fast. A skipper without much experience at marshaling and weighing resources in a competitive environment needs to have a few safe spaces to which they can reliably go when the walls seem to start closing in on them. Three games should hardly form the basis of a team’s offseason mentality, but this five-part series will explore five takeaways from the ALDS series that seem both clearer and more important now than they did a week ago. Here are links to Part 1 and Part 2. This is one area in which experience is an irreplaceable and inimitable asset. Every new guy is going to have some tough learning moments as he figures out how to keep all the plates spinning and not to count on an illusion of control he creates by closing off certain options. Aaron Boone had them in the playoffs last season. This year, he’s clearly made huge strides, and it was his counterpart’s turn to take his lumps. Much has been made of Baldelli’s failure to call upon Taylor Rogers soon enough in either of the first two games of the series. That’s a fair criticism, as long as it’s not taken too far, but the fact is that even in this day and age, it’s rare for a team to call upon its relief ace in a game of indeterminate status, with fewer than five innings in the books and no lead to protect. More importantly, Baldelli erred in both Yankee Stadium games by leaning on heuristics he needed to have left in the regular season. When he needed length in the middle innings of a close game, down the stretch, Baldelli went to Zack Littell, so that’s who he called for to start the fifth inning in Game 1. However, he either never fully considered his own thought processes or overlooked them when a familiar situation arose. Littell wasn’t that guy in September because he was actually the best pitcher for those situations, but because Baldelli needed to keep his true relief aces fresh and couldn’t afford to extend one by throwing him into a game that might or might not prove winnable, with 15 outs still left to get. In October, those reservations needed to be dispensed with, and if Baldelli had done so, he would have called upon Sergio Romo or Trevor May for that fifth inning work. It was impossible to foresee that Littell (and then Tyler Duffey) would struggle so badly, but it should have been possible to discern that the game situation differed meaningfully from the same inning and score against the Tigers in mid-September. Next time, Baldelli will get that right. The other security blanket he needs to throw away, however, can be a harder one for managers to let go. In each game, Baldelli called upon Duffey when innings began to go sideways. That’s not necessarily a bad decision, in a vacuum. Duffey was great this season. However, Baldelli did it for the wrong reasons. As even more seasoned managers often do, he had come to rely on Duffey as his “up-and-in” guy—a quick-ready fireman who could warm up fast and enter a game before an inning got out of hand. That’s a real trait, although a hard one to quantify or measure. (Thus, it is also subject to considerable error in evaluation, especially anecdotal biases.) Managers do well to be aware of how each of their relievers responds to such things. This includes not only the length of time they’re given to prepare, but the possibility of being asked to warm up multiple times without actually entering the game, or the mental challenge of entering with runners on base. On the other hand, managers get in trouble (especially in October) when they let that kind of consideration govern them, instead of being more proactive and getting the best possible pitcher for a given moment or match-up warm before that situation can even materialize. In the fifth inning of Game 1, Duffey either should have started the frame, or he should have been left to put out a fire later. In Game 2, especially given that Duffey had a 7.45 ERA and allowed an .811 OPS on zero days’ rest in 2019, Baldelli should have called upon May to relieve Randy Dobnak. In the first two frames, Dobnak had showed plenty of the chinks in the armor that rapidly pushed him out of the fray in the third. Seeing them, Baldelli should have had May warming during the top of the third, if he needs more time to prepare than does Duffey. Those are the things even Boone isn’t good at yet, and at which Baldelli can certainly improve and for which he can be more ready next fall. Here are links to Part 1 & Part 2 of this series. Or comment below after you register. Click here to view the article

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported today that the Twins have picked up Nelson Cruz’s $12M contract option for 2020. The move is not a surprise, but it’s nice to inject a little positive forward-thinking news into the news cycle just 48 hours after being knocked out of the ALDS. Cruz hit .311 with 41 home runs, even while he was limited to just 120 games due to wrist tendon issues.The option, believe it or not, represents a cut in pay to Cruz. The 39-year-old signed a one-year deal last offseason with the Twins for $14M that also included a team option for $12M this year, which is what the Twins exercised. He responded with a 1.031 OPS for his new team, the highest of his 15-year career. The move was expected, though perhaps not this soon, though there was no point in delaying it. In Twins Daily’s review of the Twins’ payroll situation, Cruz’s option was already included. The Twins still need to make some tougher decisions, such as whether to offer CJ Cron arbitration or extend a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Those decisions are not expected for a few weeks. Click here to view the article

It is rare that the offseason machinations of a billion-dollar team can be distilled down to a Twitter hashtag, but the headline says it all: #3Pitchers70Million. The Twins have a nearly empty starting rotation and, even by their modest standards, a lot of money to spend. This essay could end right now, and you would know enough to follow developments this offseason.But let’s give a little more. For a complete breakdown, make sure to grab a copy of the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook which you can pre-order today. There you’ll find names, amounts, contracts and details on the decisions that the Twins will likely make. Plus, you get a handy worksheet where you can figure out how you’re going to fit your dream rotation into the Twins starting staff. Honestly, just dreaming through that is worth the price of admission. But here’s a high level breakdown. The Lineup - $50-55M committed Essentially, the only decisions are whether to offer arbitration to C.J. Cron and whether to entice Jason Castro or another catcher back to the Twins. The rest of the decisions are no-brainers. Even without Cron and Castro, all of the positions are covered, provided you’re not trading anyone away for some pitching (and then maybe even if you are). The total cost of all those players will be about $50-55M. The Rotation - $5M committed Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda and Martin Perez are all either free agents or likely to be, though there are some decisions the Twins need to make. Jose Berrios sticks around, gets a raise due to arbitration, and one spot at least is probably saved for a competition between Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak and Lewis Thorpe. That leaves three spots to fill and $55-60M spent. The Bullpen - $10M committed The youth that filled up the Twins bullpen will likely fill it up, but they’ll need to decide whether to try and retain (and pay) Sergio Romo who will be a free agent. If you think they do, or need to add another big arm to the bullpen, you need to add to the committed payroll, but without that they are only spending $65-$70M and can fill all the slots on the 25-man roster. Payroll Space - $60M - $75M available Two years ago, the Twins had about $130M payroll for their Opening Day roster. Last year it shrunk down to $120M, reflecting decreased interest in ticket sales due to a disappointing 2018. This year, the opposite is true; anything less than $135M should be considered gross negligence. That leaves about $70M to spend on three pitchers. Maybe that means signing a free agent, like Gerrit Cole, whose price tag will be $30-35M/year. Maybe that means trading for a veteran whose salary has become an albatross. (Could the Nationals be in teardown mode yet?) Or maybe that means acquiring a high-end pitcher by trading some top prospects (or even everyday players) and backfilling them with free agents. The story of the offseason will be how the Twins attack their top three problems: pitching, pitching and pitching. They have a lot of work, but all the resources they should need to get the job done. It sounds crazy to say this as a Twins fan (and it probably is) but payroll really should not be a limitation. We’ll follow their progress (or lack therof) every day here at Twins Daily. If you would like to get a head start, preorder the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. Click here to view the article

“Freedom’s just another word for nothing left to lose.” – Janis Joplin When the time was right, the Twins promised they would pull the trigger. It could not be any more right than this offseason – the Twins have unprecedented freedom to address their starting pitching issues - and Twins Daily will cover their decisions, rumors and moves (or lack thereof) every day throughout the offseason.First up: tomorrow we’ll start coverage from our 12th annual Twins Daily Offseason Handbook. It’s a complete breakdown of the decisions the Twins will need to make, including how much they’re likely to spend, which free agents will be available, what trade candidates they can pursue, and a full breakdown of minor league options. You’ll be able to preorder it tomorrow, ensuring you get it before we even get to the end of the World Series. You’ll also get daily coverage of the team, even without games. Want a breakdown of what you can expect from Luis Arraez? Well, we’ve already got that, but we’ll have more like that. Want to hear about how top Twins prospect Royce Lewis is doing in the Arizona Fall League? OK, we already have that too, but there will be plenty more coverage like that as well. How about the latest rumors? They’ll be covered in our stories, but covered even more immediately in our forums, along with thoughtful, civil discussion about what they mean, and whether they make sense for the Twins. There should be plenty to talk about. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have positioned the Twins to have a very low payroll commitment exactly when they need to go out and rebuild a starting rotation to compete with teams like the Astros and Yankees. We will be detailing that tomorrow, and how even if the Pohlads don’t break the bank, money should not be much of a limiting factor. We’ll also be profiling free agent targets or trade candidates pretty much every day on the site. If you haven’t already, you’ll learn all about Gerrit Cole, the top free agent starting pitcher available. Is it even worth talking about whether the Twins could land the top free agent pitcher on the market? Hint: there’s already an essay in the Offseason Handbook titled “Could the Twins Sign Gerrit Cole?” For the next four months, right up until spring training, we’ll be covering the Twins, uh, daily. Just like we have done for the last seven years. If you’re not ready for the season to end, we’ve got good news: it never does here. We’ll see you tomorrow. Click here to view the article