John Bonnes

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' trade for reliever Sergio Romo, what's next between now and the trade deadline, recovering from the Yankees by beating up the White Sox, resetting the AL Central race, Byron Buxton's triumphant return, Nelson Cruz's three-homer game, and losing faith in the Twins' rotation. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

He’s a starting pitcher with outstanding underlying numbers that are disguised by pitching in a tough home ballpark. He’s signed to a reasonable deal that keeps him under team control through 2021. He’s recently been made available on the trade market, and I can report that the Twins are “very serious” about him as a potential low-cost addition. But would the Twins really consider trading for Lance Lynn?Lynn, of course, pitched for the Twins last year, and disappointed Twins fans and the organization with a 5.10 ERA. He seemed unwilling or unable to throw strikes. But immediately upon being traded to the Yankees, his control returned as he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Over the offseason, the 32-year-old signed a three-year $30M deal with the Rangers, and has posted a 3.93 ERA and a 3.00 FIP while pitching in one of MLB’s tougher parks. That’s good for an ERA+ of 129. That’s a better ERA+ than any of the Twins pitchers other than Jose Berrios. That’s a lower FIP than anyone on the Twins staff. And he’s thrown more innings than anyone in the Twins rotation, too. This is not the Lance Lynn you remember. But, geez, just try to forget. Those first pitches out of the zone. The nibbling. The early exits. The dour demeanor…. There’s no indication that Lynn is anything more than another option the Twins are considering, but given his history, that is news all by itself. Lynn hasn’t been a talked-about option in the Twins Daily forums, while teammate Mike Minor absolutely is. But Lynn clearly should be. The situation around Lynn was not that different than it was for Ryan Pressly. He was moved in a trade deadline deal, and thrived with his new team. Over the offseason he got a multi-year deal and continues to produce at a high level. But the expectations and narrative around them is totally different. Pressly, who didn’t have much in the way of expectations, is viewed as an organizational failing. The Astros convinced him to do something that the Twins didn’t and turned him into an outstanding trade deadline addition. Lynn, however, had all kinds of expectations, and his performance is viewed as a personal, not organizational, failing. He was angry about his contract. He didn’t want to be here. He was unwilling to throw strikes. But what If those narratives are incomplete? Or what if they don’t really matter? The simple reality would be that the Twins could acquire a solid #2 starter under contract for 2021, whose only blemish is that he had a rough few months under the old coaching staff. Breaking news: a lot of the Twins starting pitchers had a rough few months under the old coaching staff. Do the optics matter here? For how long? If Lynn is the only starting pitcher the Twins acquire at the deadline, from a public relations perspective, they’ll be torn to shreds. It will be worse than if they don’t add any starting pitching at all. Lynn will need to be even better than he has been in Arlington (which should be possible, given the difference in ballparks) to eventually erase that narrative. Hopefully, the reality would eventually overcome the perception. The Twins, who we pride as increasingly analytical, might have this one right. Twins Territory (and Twins Daily), who we pride as passionate, might be challenged to take a more objective look. Click here to view the article

Not a bad prediction. The Yankees did outlast the Twins and their bullpen was the difference. But neither was particularly strong.

Aaron and John talk about the Indians closing the gap on the Twins, the lineup's frustrating lack of clutch hits, wholesale changes in the bullpen, Marcus Stroman rumors and other trade deadline speculation, Rocco Baldelli micro-managing when things get tense, and the boys from ByeGoff.com discussing an umpire's lawsuit against MLB. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Want more Twins talk? Subscribe to our midweek "Off The Record" episodes via Patreon.com/Gleeman. Click here to view the article

Hey. I just changed the headline, and I wanted to explain why. Apparently Skor North has been using a "Twins Trade Rumor Roundup" as a series, and I didn't realize. So now we'll go with "Twins Trade Rumor Recap." Sorry Derek!

Lol. Fixed. I can reread my work five times and still miss obvious stuff. It's like a superpower.

The rumor mill has been pretty dry lately, so Bob Nightengale’s recent story with trade talk rumors was a tall glass of water. The revelations in the story are related to the lack of news: it turns out there are a number of teams that are still trying to decide if they are selling or buying. Or perhaps whether they can get away with selling when their fans want them to be buying.Fans (and in some cases, ownership) look at standings, not playoff odds reports. For a lot of these teams, the standings suggest their team is still in a race for a couple of Wild Card spots, while the math suggests they're a pretty significant longshot. On a regular basis, Twins Daily curates MLB's trade deadline rumors to determine what they mean for the Minnesota Twins. The Texas Rangers are a good example. They weren’t supposed to be competitive this year, but are just five games back of the American League Wild Card. But that also mean they are one of six teams chasing two Wild Card spots, and they’re the second worst one. Plus, while they’re four games above .500, they’ve been outscored on the year. So playoff odds reports have them at a 1-2% chance of making the playoffs. That’s important to the Twins because the Rangers have one of the few starting pitchers available that could upgrade the Twins rotation, Mike Minor. “Well, publicly, they are telling teams they can’t trade Minor as long as they’re in the race, but privately, they know his trade value will never be higher,” writes Nightengale. He says they’ll strongly consider moving him if they slip further back in the Wild Card race – and they face the Astros this weekend. If they do start selling, they also have several relievers that would interest the Twins. Chris Martin has been a reliable right-handed setup man who will be a free agent at the end of the year. Shawn Kelley is their closer, but is really more of a setup arm, who has a $2.5M option next year. Jose LeClerc is a young arm who dominated last year, lost the closer job, but is still doing good work and under contract through 2022 with team option years through 2024. That adds a lot of talent to the shopping mart. Nightengale also mentions Kirby Yates, about whom the Twins have inquired. Nightengale reports that the Padres “certainly are listening.” Yates is one of the few relievers who could be an upgrade on Taylor Rogers, and is under team control next year, too. But will the Padres want to sell? They’ve also had a surprising year, and are just three games back of the National League Wild Card spot. But just about everyone in the NL is within five games, so the playoff odds reports gives the Padres just a 4-7% chance of making the playoffs. They face the Cubs this weekend, and a slide might be the excuse management needs to set themselves up for a more realistic chance in 2020 or 2021. The biggest surprise potential seller in Nightengale’s story was the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are just a half game back of the last NL Wild Card spot. Playoff odds reports give them a 20-40% chance of making the playoffs, but Nightengale says “privately, they want to sell.” They have several players that would make sense for the Twins, starting with starting pitchers Zach Greinke (whose salary they would love to shed) and Robbie Ray, who new Twins Daily writer Copper Carlson profiled yesterday. But they also have relievers that make sense, like closer Greg Holland, who will be a free agent at the end of the year. Finally, Nightengale also reported that the owner of the Cincinnati Reds, who currently have the second worst record in the National League, wants to stay in the race as long as possible. Considering they have several impending free agents and 4-9% chance of making the playoffs, pressure should increase to change that attitude. The Reds have several names that make sense for the Twins. Carlson’s story also talks about Reds starter Sonny Gray, left-handed reliever Amir Garret will soon return from the IL, and closer Raisel Iglesias is under contract through 2021. So while the waiting is frustrating, it’s probably working in the Twins favor. A lot of these teams are going to be facing some ugly realities in the next two weeks, and the market for buyers could be considerably better than it is today. Click here to view the article

Would the Cleveland Indians, who currently hold the last Wild Card spot and are just five games behind the Twins, really trade away their ace pitcher Trevor Bauer at the trade deadline? Based on a conversation with Indians GM Zack Meisel … maybe? Meisel seems to be taking a pretty big picture view of Cleveland’s competitive window, with an eye at wedging it open regardless of cost.This offseason the Indians cut substantial payroll and discussed trading Bauer or fellow ace Cory Kluber to bolster their club in other areas. When the GM talks about “future sustainability” and a “continuation of the offseason plan” it suggests he is trying to walk a tightrope. We still haven’t heard of any ace pitchers (short of Madison Bumgarner, if you still consider him one) definitively being available, so it’s possible trading Bauer could net the Indians a little help this year and some prospects for future years. It’s also possible that the Cleveland could backfill his spot with a capable, if inferior, arm for a lot less and count on Kluber coming back to lead the rotation. Bauer (3.65 ERA, 160K in 138 IP) is probably one of the top five pitchers in the American League, and he’s under team control for 2020, though arbitration will probably cost that team around $20M. The Twins would certainly be interested in those numbers, but an interdivisional trade like that is exceedingly rare because the high-level prospect can hurt his former team (and management team) so much. It’s one thing to trade Alex Kirilloff to the Dodgers. It’s another to face him 19 times per year for the next seven years. But he could go to another competing team, which might eliminate them from chasing Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard or Zach Greinke. It would be a fine line to walk. Depending on which playoff odds report you look at, even after closing the gap on the Twins, the Indians only have a 10-20% chance of winning the division. But they have about a 50% chance of making the playoffs, which jibes with what the MLB Standings say: that there are four teams chasing two Wild Card spots. It's more likely Meisel will play it safe, add a little help, and explore trading Bauer in the offseason. Left-handed Relief Rumors Two left-handed relievers showed up in the rumor mill over the last 24 hours, and both look like they’re increasingly available. The Dodgers are reportedly interested in Jake Diekman, the 32-year-old Royals reliever, per Jerry Flanagan of MLB.com. The Royals have already started dumping players and Diekman has a $5.75M team option for 2020 that they’re not going to pay. Of course, they’re not going to pay it because he hasn’t been particularly effective: he has a 4.97 ERA and a 1.368 WHIP. Also, the Twins have been particularly unkind to him, tagging him for seven runs in 4.2 IP. But it’s nice that other teams can snap him up and leave alone some of the other candidates the Twins might be targeting. Flanagan says the Nationals have also had interest in Diekman. A clear level above Diekman is Roenis Elias, the southpaw Mariners closer. His stuff is not elite (4.07 ERA, 43K in 42 IP) but he’s an above average left-handed reliever with some upside and is under team control for two years after this one. That might make him less likely to be traded, but his GM is Dealin’ Jerry Dipoto, and with as many teams interested in some left-handed relief, it’s hard to envision him passing up a competitive deal. Two Buyers Talk Trade Deadline It should not be a surprise that the Cubs and Brewers are both planning on being buyers at the deadline. The Cubs have about a 70-80% chance of making the playoffs and the Brewers have about a 30% chance, per various odds reports. Both seem to have a measured approach to the deadline, but it’s worth noting that the Brewers have been linked to some of the top starting pitching names in the rumor mill like Bumgarner. Meanwhile, the Cubs are another team that has been linked to left-handed relievers. That makes three teams just today besides the Twins chasing left-handed relievers: the Dodgers, Nationals and Cubs. The list of quality left-handed relievers who are likely to be available isn’t that deep. Here's the start of a list for us to track as the deadline goes on: Will Smith (SFG)Tony Watson (SFG)Roenis Elias (SEA)Jake Diekman (KC)Maybe?Greg Holland (ARI)Zach Duke (CIN)The Twins don’t need a shutdown southpaw reliever – they already have one in Taylor Rogers – and they might be just as comfortable moving Martin Perez, Devin Smeltzer or Lewis Thorpe to the bullpen for the playoffs. But it looks like Watson and Elias would be the best fits for the team, and that’s a pretty small market to be chasing. Click here to view the article

So I just looked it up, since I wanted to try out these mad SQL skills I learned last night to create this story. The 17-inning game was the longest regular season game thread, and shame on me for missing that.The AL Wild Card was longer.The longest baseball related thread of all time was the Dozier Trade Discussion Thread. (And there were some other long Dozier trade threads, too.)

It’s easy to say we want the Twins to go out and get a top shelf reliever, but what exactly would one cost? Last year’s trade market can provide some hints. Eight high-level relievers were traded last June and July, giving us some idea how teams value relievers and their own prospects. Let’s look at one, compare them to players this year, and see if you would make that deal.7/26/18 - Chicago White Sox trade Joakim Soria to Milwaukee Brewers for LHP Kodi Medeiros and RHP Wilber Perez Five days before the trade deadline, the Brewers got their shutdown setup man. Joakim Soria had been the White Sox closer, posting a tidy 2.56 ERA with the requisite stats (11.4 K/9) to match. He was purely a rental as he had a player option at the end of the year which he was sure to exercise, making him a free agent. That sounds a lot like Will Smith, the left-handed closer for the Giants, who is one of the more highly sought relievers at the deadline. Both have fantastic stuff, both have been closers this year, but are probably better used as setup men. Both are veterans, and (most importantly) both will be free agents. I suspect most would probably rather have Smith over Soria, so we’ll make sure the second half of the trade upgrades the prospects a bit, too. To get Soria, the Brew Crew had to give up two minor league arms: Kodi Medeiros was a former first round draft pick (12th overall) who had struggled in the minors, especially with his control. But the 22-year-old was doing better, both with his control (3.9 BB/9) and with the results (3.14 ERA) in AA. Kohl Stewart (#37 on Twins Daily’s midseason prospect list) is not a terrible comp for him in the Twins system. He was also a high draft pick, and also struggled. Has also bounced back a little, and is level higher and two years older. I think most would choose Stewart, but we need to upgrade the package a little anyway. Wilber Perez was a 20-year-old right-hander who was pitching in the Dominican Summer League at the time he was acquired. He has had success there (1.92 ERA) and to a lesser extent this year in Low A (3.92 ERA), but he reportedly has about a 91 mph fastball, so this is not a fire-thrower. Twins prospect Edwar Colina is a level higher, two years older, and has a little more success, so he’s a rich man’s Perez. Colina is also the #24 Twins prospect in our 2019 midseason prospect ranking. But we’re trying to upgrade the package, so let’s keep him as the comp. So, would you trade Stewart and Colina to get Giants closer Smith? You can tell us below, just register and give us your breakdown. Click here to view the article

It’s important to occasionally reflect on the community that we’re building here, so we can make it better and acknowledge all the great work that so many people are doing. Doing so weekly turned out to be a little aggressive, but a monthly review seems about right. Also, it gives me an excuse to use a cheesy stock photo. So let’s look back at June and find out what Twins Daily’s community was up to.Overall Traffic For June Users – 147,859 (up 106% from 2018 Sessions – 462,668 (up 80% from 2018) Page Views – 1,328,465 (up 60% from 2018) Congratulations everyone – you set a record in June! June is usually a big month for Twins Daily, since it’s both the middle of the baseball season and we get very busy during the MLB Draft, which happens the first week of June. But as impressive as the 1.3M page views are, it’s even more gratifying that almost 150,000 unique readers stopped by to check out our writers. I distinctly remember when I started blogging and that number was 15. Increasing that by a factor of 10,000 is … I don’t even know what. I have goosebumps. It’s crazy to me. Stories Our top writer for the month was Andrew Thares, who of course led our MLB Draft coverage. Cody Christie was on his heels, and has grown his readership four times what it was the same month last year. Editor Tom Froemming and founders Nick Nelson and Seth Stohs are of course in the top 10, and so are Ted Schwerzler, Andrew Gebo, Matt Braun, AJ Condon and Steve Lein. Andrew, Matt and AJ are all brand new this year, and each cleared 10,000 reads in their stories last month. That’s fantastic. The most read story is our ongoing 2019 MLB Draft Signing Tracker. The Day 2 and Day 3 threads ranked second and third. The top traditional story was Tom’s article explaining why we need not freak out over the Twins trading prospects. Finally, we paid our writers at the end of the month, since it was the end of a quarter. On a quarterly basis we pay our contributing writers the ad revenue that their stories directly generate. For the second quarter of 2019, that was about $4 per 1000 reads. We’ll continue to work to increase that rate and find a way to better compensate them for their invaluable contributions. We recognize that isn’t enough for their excellent work, but it’s what we get, and we feel strongly that it should belong to them. Forums Registrations – 78 (we had 80 in 2018) Topics –346 (up from 197 in 2018) Posts – 16,462 (up from 11,333 in 2018) We would love to have you join us and talk Twins. This seems like a great year to get involved. Just register and tell us your thoughts. The top posters in June (not including moderators or writers) were: Aggies7Blakeoperation mindcrimeMNT199670chargerMike SixelLaBombosampleSizeOfOnespycakeNine of twelveThat’s quantity and that’s great, but you can also reward quality on our forums. On each comment on our forums, you can choose to give it a “like”. The most liked comment from our community was from mlhouse, who attended a Fort Myers Miracle game and added his observations to that day’s minor league report. I’m especially fond of this one, as it really added to the story and discussion. As for the members with the most likes in June, we should start with our excellent moderators, who always deserve our thanks. A few of them were at the top of the list: USAChief topped it, falling just one short of reaching 2000 likes. Ashbury and Brock were second and third, but LaBombo took the top spot amongst non-moderators. He’s been active in the game threads, such as this one, praising Rocco Baldelli and the Twins newfound penchant for hitting the snot out of the ball. If you would like to join the game threads, they’re always pinned to the top of the Minnesota Twins Talk forum. Thank you to everyone for sharing your thoughts and keeping the Twins Daily forums a civil, entertaining and informative place Blogs I’m going to need to find a better way to feature all the blogs that are being created for these monthly reports. I count at least 10 active blogs from June 6th through the 30th. If you like discovering that next underground band that is going to break through, stop by and check them out, urge them to keep writing, and respond to their thoughts. The blogs are right here and they’re always a link at the top of the Twins Daily menu. Thank you for checking in with us. If you have any ideas for Twins Daily, or feedback that you want to share, please don’t hesitate to give it, good or bad, in the comments below. I promise to read your thought and respond when appropriate. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about every possible impact trade the Twins could make, matching up with Cleveland to start the second half, creating a super Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano's turnaround, Luis Arraez's emergence, and how much bullpen one Taylor Rogers can carry. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.Listen Here! Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the state of the Twins heading into the All-Star break with a 5.5-game lead, injuries for Jake Odorizzi, C.J. Cron, and Eddie Rosario, LaMonte Wade's very brief edge over Jake Cave, whether there's any reason to have faith in Adalberto Mejia, and highlighting a possible under-the-radar trade target. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.PLAY THE PODCAST Want more Twins talk? Subscribe to our midweek "Off The Record" episodes via Patreon.com/Gleeman. Click here to view the article

It’s never been more convenient to get tickets to a Twins game. I can be walking to the game, look at options and download tickets. But almost regardless of how you get your tickets, one gut punch awaits at the end: jacked up fees. Let’s get rid of the gut punch.Twins Daily has partnered with Ticket Club, which in many ways is similar to other online ticket brokers. But with Ticket Club, you can get rid of the fees, because they are literally a club for tickets. By becoming a member, they waive all the fees. And for Twins Daily members, they have an even better deal. Ticket Club usually charges an annual fee of $50 for the first year and $10 per year for membership. But for Twins Daily readers, Ticket Club has agreed to WAIVE the first year fee. Plus, no credit card is required and there there is no future commitment. Just use our discount code TCTWINS and enter it HERE for their Premium Membership through 9/1/2019. Click over, and use that discount code by clicking the code redeem link. You'll have a Premier Membership on TicketClub.com for a full year, for free. That means a year where you can test things out, including NO FEES for tickets to Twins games, Vikings games, concert and theater tickets or ANY tickets around the country. Take a second to hop over to their site to take advantage, even if you're not going to buy tickets in the near future, you'll still want to sign up for the free membership before the discount code expires on 9/1/19. Again, just go to this link and enter the code TCTWINS to get a full free year of membership with no future commitment. And then check out their Twins tickets for this weekend. Ticket Club has tickets to most events in across the country, so even if you're not local this is a HUGE DEAL. Thank you again for reading Twins Daily. We value you, and hope you can take advantage of this offer. Click here to view the article