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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    One thing that I'd like to see the Twins look into is if they could trade for another teams supp first or second round pick. Obviously, most of the teams that have those picks are trying to stockpile minor league depth so are unlikely to move them but a few - Diamondbacks, Orioles, Pirates or Cleveland might be willing to make a win-now trade. And I'm also not sure if the Twins can swing a trade but last year the Diamondbacks basically sold Touki Toussant so maybe there would be a way to buy such a pick?
  2. gunnarthor
    Yeah, the Twins have 3 picks in the second round. For a while, they really hit on second round picks but it's been awhile. We'll see if this is the year Johnson gets something. The picks are #56, 73, 74. So there are certainly some interesting players who might be available - and the Twins might be able to save some money and get someone who has fallen at 56. Zach Jackson from Arkansas might be the relief pitcher drafted and converted to starter this year. And Zach Burdi. I forgot about him.
  3. gunnarthor
    Yeah, Benintendi might be the Aaron Nola of his draft. I don't think he slips as far if it was a redo but the question, if I remember correctly, wasn't about his bat it was more about his physical frame. He's short and has a weak arm. So his success in the low minors might not tell us quite as much. As for draft results, yeah, I wish Buxton and Berrios were tearing up the majors instead of AAA. But I don't think it means they won't. And the other guys are still a few years away - the problem when you draft HS players. I want the Twins to keep drafting the BPA and not worry about him being a college bat or a HS arm or whatnot.
  4. gunnarthor
    Let's see, since 2012, the Cubs and Twins have drafted near each other and had the same amount of 1st round picks 2012 - (Twins picking before Cubs) - Buxton, Berrios, Bard. Cubs - Alomra, Blackburn, Johnson. 2013 - (Twins picking after Cubs) Twins - Stewart. Cubs - Bryant. 2014 - (Twins picking after Cubs) Twins - Gordon. Cubs - Schwaber. 2015 - (Twins picking before Cubs) Twins - Jay. Cubs - Happ. Ranking these guys you'd place Buxton and Bryant at the top. After that, Bard and Blackburn are probably wash outs. Schwaber made the majors but suffered a really bad injury. The rest probably go (per mlb.com) Berrios, Jay, Happ, Alomra, Gordon, Stewart, Johnson. Obviously, the big difference is that Bryant is playing well in the majors but I'm not sure that means college hitters would have been better picks. For instance, in 2012, the best college bat was Zunino. In 2013, when the Twins picked, it would have been Colin Moran. In 2014 it would have been Michael Conforto. And last year it would have been Andrew Benintendi. Even with hindsight, I'm not sure the Twins would have picked any of those guys over their picks although some would be in the majors faster.
  5. gunnarthor
    Maybe this ties in with TRex's question but is there any sense of how the Twins view guys like Alec Hansen or Bobby Dalbec? Both were pre-season top 20 players but have fallen off b/c of rough seasons.
  6. gunnarthor
    Nice write-up.
  7. gunnarthor
    I thought Hunter's best attributes were keeping the team even after losses and preventing guys from pressing. I thought for a few weeks Sano really looked like he thought he needed to hit a home run. And Rosario has been pressing all year. Perhaps Hunter knew a better way to communicate with young guys that struggled than Molitor has - hell, I'm not sure Molitor really struggled like these guys have. But Hunter, who did struggle, might be better able to walk them through it. Like Mike, I'm not sure what that's worth but I do think it was real. In any event, the players will eventually have to figure it out themselves. My guess is that eventually this team acquires Sano's swag but it might take longer than I thought.
  8. gunnarthor
    I agree that the Twins should keep Buxton down for at least another month. Let him dominate the level for a while.
  9. gunnarthor
    I hope the team doesn't rush Buxton back. He needed at bats so let's get him some more at bats so he's comfortable.
  10. gunnarthor
    Just looking at mlb.com's list does suggest that the Twins could pretty easily draft a catcher in the first 3 rounds. I believe they have five picks inside the top 95. But it also looks like there might be a number of potential high school arms that they could focus on instead. Or they could nab another Trey Cabbage like kid - I think Cole Stobbe would be a fun pick. I'm still interested in some of the guys whose stock is dropping. Coming into the season, Bobby Dalbec was a top 20 guy. College bat who had a bad season and might not be able to stay at third. But he has good power and a strong arm. Might be a fun lottery ticket. And, of course, Alec Hanson.
  11. gunnarthor
    Obviously, we're still in really small samples but is Kepler really unlucky or are pitchers hitting the bat out of his hand? His walk rate and strike out rates are outstanding but his babip is .200. So he's either hitting it right at people or he's making incredibly weak contact.
  12. gunnarthor
    Maybe we're talking past each other? The Twins have some higher paid (but moderate compared to MLB salaries) players not playing well. I would argue that Mauer and Santana are playing well, Milone, Plouffe and Dozier's salary were set as part of the CBA although the Twins locked in a value on Dozier. The other salaries are pretty minimal. Basically, what you are arguing is that FA signings aren't really worth it. Which is a reason the Twins don't do it much and only do it on the smaller scale.
  13. gunnarthor
    And if the Cubs called and offered Lester for Sano, we'd hang up on them. Doesn't mean Lester has negative value. I don't think Santana's contract is a bad one. He's pitched well for us. Obviously, the PED suspension is a big mark against him but when he's on the mound, he's been good. He's not an ace but he's also not being paid like an ace. I agree that the Nolasco signing hasn't been a good one.
  14. gunnarthor
    It's not really the same salary. Santana and Nolasco combined for just under 100m. Lester signed for 155m. While Santana and Nolasco will be paid 25m this year, the Twins won't be paying 25m to them in 2021, which is the real problem with those long term contracts. And I agree that there are some good contracts, too. Arrieta is a steal. But Mauer and Santana might also be overpaid (actually, Santana probably isn't) but they are good players.
  15. gunnarthor
    Well, sure. But when Kepler was called up, the 40 man was full. I, and I think most of us, were fine with the Twins not putting a vet like Robinson (or Murphy) on the 40 man. Santana got hurt, the Twins needed another body. It happens. They could have cut Hicks on April 7th (or whenever) and put Maestro on the 40 man so Kepler stayed down but I'm not overly concerned with them not doing it. That doesn't bother me nearly as much as Molitor starting/not starting Buxton or how he treated Meyer.
  16. gunnarthor
    Maybe trading off young talent for quick fixes and not understanding where you are in the rebuild process? Maybe signing 100m deals for bad FA? Looking at the Twins 40 man roster, there does seem to be some pretty nice talent there. They have 6 OFers 25 or younger (Sano, Arcia, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler and Walker). The 1b/3b/RF/DH plan of Mauer/Plouffe/Sano/Park worked out pretty well so far. The current team is getting very little from C/2b/ss/lf/cf. The two OF spots and second base are basically set and just have to get better with the talent within the org. Catcher sucks but that's a league wide problem. The Twins should try to upgrade short stop. (I'd love it if they could pry Profar away from Texas but that's probably a pipe dream, even though the Rangers could use some OFers). But really, the offense will improve when Dozier and two more of those young OFers start playing well. The pitching staff still needs to improve but they have some nice pieces in the system. I expect that Burdi, Chargois and Melotakis will make the bullpen better and get call up this season. I want Meyer to get another (real) shot at starting in the majors but a final rotation of (healthy) Santana, Berrios, Gibson, Meyer and Hughes (or May if Hughes can't start), could be good enough by the end of the year.
  17. gunnarthor
    I'll give him a pass on Kepler and Polanco. Kepler was up b/c the 40 man didn't have a dead weight guy like Shane Robinson on it. So he had to come up. Polanco has been the Twins emergency call-up guy the last few years and that's ok. I wish Molitor had played him a bit more but with Santana and Plouffe on the DL, he was the obvious call-up.
  18. gunnarthor
    I don't think you're right on that. The main reason teams don't bring on salary are worries over longer contracts, not one year guys. (Or injuries, of course). So I do think the Twins could trade Jepsen or (healthy) Perkins, for instance. And I suspect that Nolasco will get traded this year but we'll see if the Twins have to cover some of the money. Obviously, Milone and Fein weren't good signings but their combined 6.7m is hardly a sticking point. (It's also strange that you used a top 12 list). Most teams top paid players have the same issue - look at the Cubs top paid players. Whose trading for those players full salaries? (And that's the best team -record wise - in baseball). Lester - 25m Heyward - 22m Lackey - 16m Montero - 14m Zorbrist - 10.5 That's 87.5 right there. And you could probably find something close to that on nearly every team. Now you could argue that some of those Cubs guys are earning their salary, of course. But I would say that Mauer and Santana are both playing pretty well, too. The real concern is the Nolasco signing and the Hughes extension. I liked the Hughes extension. Wasn't a big fan of Nolasco although I understood it. It looks like both will be pretty bad.
  19. gunnarthor
    I'd be ok if Molitor was gone but I think Ryan's fine. The way Molitor treated Meyer and Buxton was nuts.
  20. gunnarthor
    As to Buxton, let's keep him in AAA for a bit so he gets going. Nice to see Kepler starting to hit. I think those two just need at-bats.
  21. gunnarthor
    I guess that sort of depends on what you think he will be. I suspect he's far from not panning out as the OP wrote. I didn't think he'd be a consistent 8 WAR guy like Trout, either though. I think he can and will be an all-star CFer who, in his best seasons, will be among the best players in baseball. I'm not sure I'm willing to change that belief on his struggles at the ML level.
  22. gunnarthor
    Javier Baez was the first guy who jumped to my head. It's probably a bit early to give up on these guys' high ceilings. Strike out rates that high are fairly new things so you won't historically see those numbers anyway.
  23. gunnarthor
    I have to say, i do find it annoying how many Buxton is a bust threads that have shown up on TD. After we drafted him, he started something like 1-30 in rookie ball and there were threads saying "we should have drafted Appel or Zunino. He's a bust." He becomes the best prospect in baseball, has his 2014 season ruined by fluke injuries and comes back and hits AA and AAA pitching to a tune of .305/.367/.500 despite missing nearly a year and facing the hardest jump in the minors. And he struggles in his first taste of the majors, and we get the "he's a bust" threads again. He's going to be great. Relax.
  24. gunnarthor
    It's time to relax. Buxton just needs at-bats. He's only had about 1200 total and only 500 or so at AA or above (even counting his ML at-bats). He'll be fine.
  25. gunnarthor
    I think this is on Molitor. I thought he might be holding him back to start in Duffey's place but it looks like Duffey will start Saturday. So, I have no idea why he hasn't gotten him into a game yet. I imagine it's a lack of trust since he last saw him in ST and he wasn't that effective.
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