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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    The Twins can't afford a contract like Scherzer's or Lester's or Verlander's at all. It wasn't about the prospects, it was cost. The Pohlads aren't going to do this. We have 20+ years of history here. The Twins won't sign these guys. Comparing the Twins to the Dodgers, who were able to keep their multiple Cy Young winner while the Twins had to trade theirs away, isn't helpful. The Cubs are paying Arrieta 15.5m, Lackey 16m and Lester 25m this year. The Yankees have two FA starters making 22m or more, this year. The Astros could take on Verlander's salary. Falvey was hired b/c ownership thinks he can create a cheap competitive team. Payroll will remain in the bottom third of the league. That means we're probably looking at 110m payroll. If we stretch it, it might get to 120 but I'd bet heavily against that. Ownership is going to use the old excuses about not signing longterm contracts to make sure they have money available for raises for our core. And then they'll let that core leave when the market resets next offseason.
  2. gunnarthor
    The Twins have Berrios who was pretty well regarded prospect and had a pretty nice season. They also have four starting pitchers in AA or above that have been top 100 guys on some list - Thorpe, Gonsalves, Romero and Stewart. Only Thorpe wasn't on a top 100 list last year although Stewart probably isn't this year. They could combine a few of those with Gordon to make a solid trade. They could see how they develop and mix them in next year. Basically, the Twins have options if they want. What they don't have the ability to do is sign Darvish. But you're main problem is suggesting that the Twins follow a blueprint of the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros or Nats. Those teams are spending way, way more than the Twins.
  3. gunnarthor
    If the Twins had more reliable back end of the rotation, they might not have been in the wild card game. They had a solid front of the rotation in Santana and Berrios. By both bWAR and fWAR, Ervin Santana would have been the second best pitcher on the Yankees. So we had a shot. They just need a better staff for a season and not a one game playoff. That can be done several ways. It's not realistic though to expect the Pohlads to pay for Darvish. You need a different plan.
  4. gunnarthor
    These kind of posts don't help. Everyone wants to win and the suggestion is that those who want someone less than Darvish don't.
  5. gunnarthor
    I'm not sure that you're second assumption is right. Yes, I think you're (generally) right about a guy like Darvish helping if he's not hurt and a Chatwood might not help even if healthy but you are way underrating the longterm harm the Twins would face if a Darvish contract blows up on them the way Hughes' contract did. What if Darvish gets his 7/175m contract and busts after year two? The Twins owe him 125m more yet get nothing out of that? Every year they hope that they can get some good starts out of him only to send him out for a Phil Huges-like run and then return him to the DL? He'll take away starts from young guys and he'll be worth negative WAR but because we still owe him that money, he'll get his chances. That would be a much bigger problem than if Chatwood's 4y/48m deal doesn't work.
  6. gunnarthor
    It's a "win" because the Twins didn't sell Dozier for 60 cents on the dollar. They could still trade Dozier (or a different MI) this year and get a better offer. If they had moved Dozier, they (likely) couldn't have. I'd also point out that the Yankees ace couldn't make it out of the first inning. Pitching is rough all around. Kyle Gibson would have been arguably the Angels best pitcher last year. So while the back of the rotation isn't set and the front doesn't have a true ace, we do have pieces in place and the ability to get something in free agency as well (or through a trade).
  7. gunnarthor
    But we have a good pitch framer now ...
  8. gunnarthor
    I like the idea of Chatwood a lot more than Lynn. He's younger and won't cost as much. Huge advantages. He's not exactly Phil Hughes but the narrative about getting out of a certain park is the same. I think he could be a solid #4 type (a good thing). He'd still probably get 12m/year though.
  9. gunnarthor
    This seems pretty light for Sano. I don't see what he gains from giving up prime earning years at such a discount.
  10. gunnarthor
    Payroll is the big question. I think we'll have a payroll around 110m which gives us about 20m to play with in free agency. But someone posted Forbes estimates of revenue for the Twins and if that was correct and if Twins still use 52% of revenue for payroll (as opposed to all monies spent on salaries such as draft and international bonuses) then our payroll could be closer to 140m.
  11. gunnarthor
    It's a drop in the bucket compared to the owners.
  12. gunnarthor
    No. He just came off a 5 WAR season as his agent knows. The reason the Twins want to extend him is because they know (and his agent knows they know) that Buxton is an elite player. Buxton is going to get paid a lot the next few years through arbitration. The numbers you suggest are probably low but even if they were 100% correct, he'll get that money regardless of whether he signs an extension now. The only way he doesn't get that money is if he suffers a career ending injury. If not, he's set. He's already made 6m in a signing bonus and over a million in salary. Plus he has endorsement contracts. Hopefully he's got a smart business guy watching his funds. There should be no reason for him to give up three years of free agency for 54m, as you suggest. Machado and Harper are going to break baseball's salary structure next offseason and Buxton is going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that.
  13. gunnarthor
    I think Buxton would get a lot more than 100m. He's much closer to Trout's contract than Upton's, which is 7 years old already and he signed it coming off a down year. Buxton was a 5 WAR player this year and everyone thinks this will be his worst year for some time. He's going to be a FA at 28. He has no incentive to give away his age 28-30 years for essentially a promise of 24m through his arbitration years - which are also set too low by probably 10m. When he gets to FA, he's going to be one of the 10 highest paid players in baseball. And it probably won't be by the Pohlads.
  14. gunnarthor
    There is no reason for Buxton to sign such a team friendly deal.
  15. gunnarthor
    I wonder if that's just cyclical or a new trend. 15 this year and 15 last year but 28 in 2015 and well over 30 in 2014 and 2013. I honestly don't know but would guess it's just more random than anything. Right now teams might be overly reliant on bullpen + a shortage of good pitchers = less starting pitcher innings. But those things can change. I think on the Twins staff Santana, Berrios (185 innings this year) and even Gibson (195 innings in 2015) could throw 200 innings in a season in a good year so we'll see.
  16. gunnarthor
    I'm pretty sure the science of PED use has only continued to grow. Seeing how much PEDs are affecting other sports, I think it would be naive to think baseball isn't in a similar position. I'd bet that at somewhere around half the players are taking some sort of illegal PED now.
  17. gunnarthor
    The A's?
  18. gunnarthor
    Pretty sure 25ip in the post-season isn't a big enough sample size to mean anything. I'd love to have 5 starting pitchers who could throw 200+ innings and put up 4.5 WAR. I'd happily take my chances with that rotation.
  19. gunnarthor
    There's another stat, WPA, that's supposed to measure how a player helped in their opportunities. It's not a predictive stat or a rate stat, it just measures (do varying degrees of accuracy) how a player influenced a game/season. By that stat, Ervin still wins.
  20. gunnarthor
    Sure they could. They'd probably win several. It's funny. Anytime a Twins pitcher doesn't do well in the playoffs it's because he doesn't strike out enough guys (even though our soft tossing guys did pretty well) and when other teams strike out pitchers get blown out, it's not a problem. Twins need good pitchers. Good pitchers come in many different forms. Sure, the best pitchers tend to be strike out pitchers but that doesn't mean only strike out pitchers are good. And strike out pitchers are expensive. I'm not saying we should ignore that, of course. But if we could get a Dallas Kuechel or two, that'd be just fine.
  21. gunnarthor
    I think we have to be careful with pitchers. Outside of the Roid era, most pitchers (not all) are usually done around 32. Obviously, there are exceptions and PED use is still happening but pitchers fall off a cliff faster than most realize. Lynn might be worth 3 WAR next year, 2 the following year and worth nothing over the rest of it. I think I'd rather trade for a younger pitcher or maybe take someone like Vargas on a one year deal while we wait for Gonsalves and Romero to come in. That said, I'm sure I'll be the first cheerleading Lynn's signing if it happens.
  22. gunnarthor
    My hope is that the FO discussed some issues they had with his managing before he resigned. I think the fact that they fired Allen plus the addition of Pickler and Rowson last year means this FO is still going to push for better voices in the dugout.
  23. gunnarthor
    Yep, those innings and complete games were big. Hopefully, Berrios has a bunch next year.
  24. gunnarthor
    I'm opposed to the move and hope greatly that the Twins win the world series.
  25. gunnarthor
    I think this is a mistake. Besides bunting, Molitor had a lot of problems. This should have been a time for the new FO to make a move but so far they have not done much at all. This should be a mark against them which are starting to add up.
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