gunnarthor

Today sucked. I don't think we've "lost" that much in one day since 08. Wells Fargo had a very bad day. Not sure I'd jump into the market too soon. I think some of this is value correction and it might make sense to wait to see since this bull market has been going pretty long. Fortunately, I don't have a lot of cash on hand anyway.

Morris will be hard to top. My first thought was Reggie Jackson but you already checked that. My second thought was Joe Carter and you already checked him. I found this but this is cumulative, not one game. https://www.sporcle.com/games/big8dog88/mlb-world-series-win-probability-added

Uff-da. Maybe I should have wished for Yvonne Strahovski ...

Solid list. If the Polanco we saw in August and Sept is real he belongs on the list. Not sure he's a .300 hitter/high on-base guy though. Hope he is. I think this will be a big year for him.

Yeah, health in 2006 (and 09 and 10, too) was a big issue but that's the reality of low payroll teams. Frankly, I've always thought that the Twins decade from 01-10 with 6 division titles and one trip to the ALCS was more impressive than the Yankees one WS win in the same window.

That's a fair point. Health for every team is a big issue. I'm not sure if Molitor actually deserves credit for his use of days off for the players, if the Twins were just "lucky" last year of if the young guys (and Dozier) are just hearty but injuries are always a big concern that hasn't really affected us too much over the last few years. We have some depth (I think the Rochester rotation will be May, Gonsalves, Slegers and Romero) and Granite and Gordon could be the first position players up but if Buxton misses half a season, they really can't make that up.

I admit I like what they've done with the bullpen and I think we can expect better seasons from Buxton, Sano, Polanco and Kepler so our offense should be even better. We really aren't that far away. Darvish might be enough to put us over the top but until we address starting pitching, we really won't know where we stand compared to Cleveland.

Part of me actually hopes the market does poorly in 2018 because then the GOP will be less likely to hold the House and Senate. Of course, part of me holds big banks and big oil so I'm a bit of hypocrite.

Yeah, rough day.

Do you like him more than Buxton, Rosario or Kepler? I don't. He's good insurance though.

We still have to get Sickel's and the fangraphs guys (not sure if they are doing one combined or two individual lists) as well. I think Baddoo might sneak onto the fangraphs list, they've mentioned him in their chats. I believe it was a BA guy who said that the Twins had a glut of players (ranked 2-8 in the system) that could have been ranked more or less in any order. Klaw obviously sees Gordon higher but that seems about right to me. A bunch of guys who, right now, are pretty good prospects but not at the elite level like Lewis or that second tier (think Kepler) quite yet. I think Klaw has Gordon at that Kepler level. Anyhow, I think that the system is in good shape. Light on elite talent, which is bad, but pretty deep with enough young players with high ceilings so that next year Lewis might not be alone.

True, but even with those three gone, our high end youngsters (Graterol, Baddoo, Kiriloff, Miranda, Javier) might more than make up for it. I'm really high on that 2016 draft group. Probably unrealistically so.

I like Romero a lot. I thin he's our #1 pitching prospect. Hopefully he gets to the majors this year.

I'm not sure how they can suspend Sano unless there's more than just he said/she said. I'm more worried about his injury recovery but like others think Escobar can cover third for a bit. I'm ok with Rodney closing b/c then we have better pitchers pitching in more important situations. Some of our best bullpens had arms equal to or better than our closer not closing. We should continue that. I don't see how they option Gibson out of ST. He's either traded or in the opening rotation. As for Santana, I'm not overly worried about him. I just want innings. I don't expect him to be an all-star again but he should be a capable pitcher. That'll be enough.

My guess is that we have a top 10 system right now but not top 5. A year from now, it might be top 5.

He was a nice pick. I think he's a sleeper for us.

Honestly, until the owners step up and show what kind of payroll this team can support, I don't think there is any reason for Buxton to sign longterm. He makes minimum this year and then has three arb years left. He could realistically make 40m in just those three arb years without locking himself to the team. First arb year - 4-7m second arb year - 11-16m third arb year - 16-20+ Charlie Blackmon just got 14m in his third year, Donaldson just got 23m! Machado is going to the arbitrator b/c he couldn't come to an agreement but he'll easily get 20m, I'd bet. Salaries are sky rocketing. And as a FA at 28, he should bet on himself at this point.

In 2021, Gordon will be cheaper. The Pohlads won't pay to keep Buxton, Sano, Berrios, Kepler, Rosario and Polanco together. We can hope they'll keep most but they might not even do that. They certainly won't keep all. By 2021, all of those guys salaries could be a combined 80m or more.

I think most everyone understood the premise of the thread. They might even have looked at things other than batting average to make their predictions.

Sure, but Garver's never been a top 100 prospect, let alone a potential elite one like many of the other guys in our system, the manager hasn't given him many shots when he was up here and the FO didn't feel the need to bring him up despite some positional openings - either as a backup catcher over Giminez or to give him some DH at-bats.

That's a long way out. No way Garver will be our starting catcher. Dozier would be 34. Just looking at our system, I think it's more likely to be - C - Rortvedt - he'd be 24 in 2021 and on target to be in the majors by then. DH/1B - Sano/Rooker in some combination. I'm actually pretty excited about both these guys. Sano would be 28 and in his last season of team control. Rooker, 26, is a nice power threat to go with him. Other possibilities could include Diaz (25) or Kepler moving from the OF. 2B/SS - Nick Gordon and Wander Javier - lots of candidates for the MI but Javier might be the most likely to stick at short. Mayo expects him to break out this season. He'd be 23 in 2021 and has some pretty loud tools. 3B - Andrew Bechtold - I liked this pick in the draft last year. I think he turns into a poor man's Koskie for us and keeps the spot open until Jose Miranda is ready. LF/CF/RF - I think the Twins trade Rosario and Kepler in the intervening years to keep money to sign Buxton and Sano longterm. That opens the corners for Akil Baddoo and Royce Lewis. Butxton will be 27 but he will have already signed a longterm extension to stick. Baddoo and Lewis could make it an even rangier OF. The nice thing about the OF for 2021 is that the Twins will have a ton of options - Buxton (27), Kepler (28) and Rosario (29) would all be under team control for that season before getting to free agency. The minors OF depth is really, really good - Royce Lewis (22), Baddoo (22), Kiriloff (24) all have all-star upside in the OF. Pearson, Wade and Granite would all be under team control as well. We'll see how they develop over the next few years.

There's a lot to be excited about in our system next year. To name three that haven't come up as much - Tyler Jay - can he make the pen out of ST? Will this finally be the year our system gives us a true bullpen weapon? Jose Miranda - one of the other second round picks in 2016. Had a really nice season in Elizabethon and looks like he's growing into the power predictions Andrew Bechtold - I think he's a big time sleeper for us and I'm really excited to see how the Twins push him, since he'll be 22 next year.

Rosario put up a 120 OPS+ last year and I think Kepler can probably pull that off this year but I think his will be based on higher OBP and lower slg. He should become a good player for us and a solid piece in the bottom half of the order.

I liked the 2017 draft (although I was a moody little bitch on day one and way to angry we didn't draft for need) but I'm not sure it's as good as either 2012 or 2016. Time will tell. It's also good to remember that pushing prospects isn't new this year. We've been very aggressive with our prospects ever since Brad Steil took over the minor leagues.

We bought a small amount of AT&T for our IRAs. They seem like one of the big winners in the ****ty tax plan so ....