alarp33
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Everything posted by alarp33
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I would guess Harper / Machado sign deals similar to Stanton. 10+ years, with a player opt out in there at age 30 or so.
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You are willfully ignoring the facts here. Yes the Yankees have an advantage. No, the Yankees are not buying wins. The Yankees are winning this year because they have drafted extremely well, and made many shrew trades that don't involve buying anyone, they involve smart baseball decisions. WAR Leaders Severino (International FA, $225,000 signing bonus) Judge (drafted) Gregorious (traded for when coming off a season with .653 OPS) Brett Gardner (drafted) Stanton (traded for - bought) Hicks (we all know the story here) Sanchez (international FA) Torres (waved white flag and traded Chapman at deadline) Green (traded for, non roster invitee to Spring)
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Harper and Machado are unique cases because they are hitting Free Agency before their age 27 seasons. It will be more interesting to see what happens with Donaldson or Dozier. If the o/u for number of years they get was 3.5, I’d take the under on both for sure. I think that’s a major shift from 5+ years ago
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The bottom of my post was what MLR wrote... you replied you weren't sure the league has changed. I was just providing examples of how its changed. I didn't make anything up. There's always going to be bad deals (I don't see any way the Hosmer deal looks good in the long run if he doesn't opt out) but teams ARE changing their behavior when it comes to handing out long term deals. 5 years ago is there any chance Lance Lynn would've been agreeing to a 1 year deal in late March for $8 million? He would've been a lock for 4-5 years prior to this shift in FA
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Also if you really need more evidence of a shift in how teams operate in Free Agency, didn't Scott Boras literally threaten to sue owners on behalf of free agents this winter because he was claiming collusion?
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Right, players are always going to get $$, but the thing that has changed is years. Which is exactly what MLR was saying. You'll probably see more and more deals like Arrietta was given. Higher than expected $ per year, lower years. Darvish is making $7 million more this year than he will in the final 2 years of his deal which i found interesting. Pujols on the other hand made only $12 million his 1st season in LA, but will get $30 million in his final season (when he's 41) Are you really going to take a position that the FO's around the league have become considerably less inclined to sign deals that take a player well past their prime.
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These are the number of free agents who received 6+ years in Free Agency over the past 3 offseasons; I think the days of Pujols and Cabrera receiving 10+ years in their 30's are long gone. Though you certainly may see younger guys like Harper / Machado get 10+ 2016 - 6 (Price (7), Greinke (6), Heyward (8), C Davis (7), Upton (6), Cueto (6)) 2017 - 0 2018 - 2 (Darvish (6), Hosmer (8) - especially Hosmer, I think pretty universally disliked contracts)
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The Yankees were 4 games over .500, 6.5 games out of 1st, and 4 games out of a WC when they traded Chapman for Gleybar Torres. Just some prospect. I hope the Twins don't make any of those types of moves this summer, who neds just some prospect
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The Yankees have the #2 Farm System in baseball (ESPN). Is your argument that they somehow unfairly bought that farm system to create a super team? Or are you supporting the others argument that having a stocked farm system is useful when trying to acquire a player like Degrom? EDIT: The comments on the rankings article. Seems like the Yankees have done in recent years what many of us are advocating and you are arguing against? The Yankees are going to be dominant for the future precisely because they stopped making stupid trades that mortgaged their future and largely stopped signing absurd FA contracts (until this Winter, when their payroll plummets - which just so happens when Harper and Machado hit FA). The brilliance of Brian Cashman has been in how he has deployed the products of his farm system to bolster the big league club while holding on to the core guys. In another era, Aaron Judge or Gary Sanchez or Luis Severino would have been used to trade for established veterans, but Cashman has held on to the right guys -- you might even argue he has been too conservative in trading prospects, but I doubt Yankees fans would complain right now. Even in trades for Giancarlo Stanton and three players from the White Sox at the deadline, the Yankees have kept their top tier of prospects intact. The result is a system with five guys in the top 100, three more with strong cases and continued depth for future acquisitions.
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Good info. I am not saying that Polanco will jump into the lineup hitting like he did in August of last year though. I'm saying that whether he plays in 10, 12 or 16 games at AAA, its not going to make much of a difference.
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I don't know, seems like a bunch of guesses to me. If the Twins say he'll be in the lineup July 2 I haven't seen any reason to doubt that yet - I'd probably begin doubting it if he hasn't played in a game by next Monday. FWIW, the MLB wRC+ and Ops were higher in April than they are in June so far, even though weather is a factor in April. "rust" seems pretty subjective and unmeaningful
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"few" prospects from the top 100 will have an impact in the major leagues...? Huh?
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Not to mention, both trades completed by a different front office.
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Well he has been playing in extended Spring games, which would be the equivalent of getting looks at live pitching? I'm just failing to see why people are saying he needs the full 20 games? These guys don't get 20 full games in March. If he's playing in games by mid to end this week I see no reason why the July 2 deadline is in jeopardy, other than a magical number of 20 which seems to be coming from nowhere?
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The most at bats any player on the Twins received this Spring was 51. Why does Polanco need 70-80 to be ready to play?
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You do understand that everyone you're arguing with in this thread is totally fine with and advocating for trading for pieces like a Andrew Miller during an actual contention window, like the Indians did. Which is totally different than trading a boatload for 1 piece in Mid-June while 6 games under .500
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Yeah clearly none of us have any idea what it will take, but I think it’s fair to say it will be a substantial return the Marlins get
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Right about Verlander? The guy with a no trade who there was 0 indication would’ve been interested in coming here to chase a wild card. Ok We are years behind Hou and Chi but people are wrong saying making a monster trade for Realmuto today makes very little sense. Hmm, ok. I’m not sure I understand your argument at all. Are the Twins contenders, is Realmuto is the only path to contention? Help me out
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Did you not read the post I quoted? It literally is saying it doesn’t matter if the Twins are good or not, they should trade for as many good players as possible.
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The Twins should fill their team with good players. Got it, we agree. If only this were fantasy baseball and you could just build an all star team through trades
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Are you comparing this years team to the 2006 team? You can’t see a difference in team makeup or closeness to title contention? If you are not making any parallels between the situations, I agree wholeheartedly. Terry Ryan totally messed up the championship window of the mid to late 2000s teams
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Lucroy was a year closer to FA, 3 years older, had a limited no trade which limited his market, and brought back 2 top 50 prospects. I’d be very surprised if Lewis and Kiriloff alone got a deal done right now. And if you aren’t willing to include Lewis (where I would fall in) I can’t even imagine the price. Gordon, Kiriloff, Romero and ?. No matter what the price today would be, that is a farm system crippling deal for 1 player that doesn’t bring you into a serious contention window
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Based on what the Marlins have been seeking from other teams (Robles AND Soto from WAS), Lewis and Kiriloff is probably only a starting point, I'm guessing you would need to throw in at least one other very good piece, maybe two.
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Because good players with 2 years of control left cost a lot of prospects on the trade market? Apologies for calling him above avg, let me know what the appropriate adjective would be for the future
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I'm not sure it means much, but Gibson averages about 2 pitchers more per inning that Berrios. That certainly plays in to the lower IP as well.
