alarp33
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Everything posted by alarp33
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Article: The Rise and Fall of Miguel Sano
alarp33 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I was always very anti - Reusse and this notion Sano was fat. He's always been just a big human and it didn't seem to be negatively affecting his play. And then this Spring came around and I saw Sano in a game for the 1st time and well... he's fat now. I have no idea what his attitude is like, if he still wants to be great or not. But an athlete has a job that is primarily based around their physical abilities and stature. If he doesn't care enough to not be 30 pounds overweight its hard to draw any logical conclusion other than, he doesn't care about his craft. I think/hope its not too late for him to wake up -
If the Twins signed a player who raped a 6 year old it is probably the only single move they could make to lose me as a fan forever. Disgusting to even consider rooting for a player like that
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Yeah I’m not sure where these numbers are coming from. It’s legit maybe $10 million on the very high end of estimates spread over 4 seasons, assuming good health and performance of a pitcher over 6 years.
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I have absolutely no idea how you’re arriving at those numbers. David Price won a CY Young and finished 2nd in one, had over a 21 WAR in his 1st 5 mlb seasons and made under $50 million during his 4 arb years. And you’re pie in the sky optimism is Romero making $15 million more than David Price? Also you are assuming similar performance and health from Romero as Kyle Gibson, but are putting him at $5 million for arb year 1? Price was around $4.3 and had a heck of a better start to his career than Gibson These numbers are not realistic in the least PS: Dallas Keuchel wasn’t a Super 2, so why are you using him as an example for super 2 salaries? He’s in his 3rd and final year of arbitration
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Can you translate? Are you saying a Super 2 player gets $30 to $40 million more than a regular 3 year arb? Or just they can make that total?
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Gordon is a middle infielder, maybe SS, maybe 2B. Unfortunately none of the current options for next year are good defenders at SS Sano is not a passable 3rd baseman, and will not be the regular 3rd baseman in MN next year, which is what this discussion was about
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How is he playing out of position? Maybe he's a poor defender who would benefit from a move You answered your own question from your previous post
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We're watching different games if you think that is his optimal position* *And that's talking about today. Not what his 3rd base ability (or lack thereof) is going to be in the future
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SS are hard to find. So you're giving up on one of them (Gordon) in order to play Sano out of position, because 1B are easy to find? I'm not sure that makes sense.
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In 2021 even if he was Super 2, and even if he is elite in 2019+2020, he's going be making what, $4.5 or $5 million? David Price made around $48 million during his 4 arbitration years and he finished 2nd and won a Cy Young. I think this is the record for Arb money for a pitcher I can't find a good comp for him, but Dallas Keuchel who won a Cy but was hardly at the Price level throughout his 6 years is going to make around $30 million his final 4 seasons of control. $18 million spread over 4 years, for a team that will probably have $500 million in salaries those 4 seasons kind of is chump change
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I wasn't picking on you, I just have seen the service time thing a lot recently when it comes to some of these young Twins. Like others have stated 6 years from now for a pitcher is an eternity, if Romero is 29 and makes $20 million in his last 4th year of arbitration I would say that's a problem the Twins would happily sign up for today if they could Just like service time isn't an issue with Nick Gordon, who should be a good player but unlikely to break the bank at any point. I'm not sure why they sent him down, I would try to limit his innings to a degree this year, maybe thats part of it. But I feel pretty confident in saying it has 0 to do with his Super 2 status
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Who's playing 3rd?
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I think service time is brought up wayyyyy to often by fans and factors in to a lot less decisions than fans think. On an uber prospect like a Harper, K Bryant, etc. of course service time is a factor in decisions. On a good but not elite prospect like Romero? I highly doubt it.
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I think you can wait till this offseason, which has been my point all along. You can certainly try to plan on them being important parts of your lineup next year, but I don't think that means you need to trade your two top prospects as if that's a certainty. If he's traded to Houston for 3 top 100 prospects this summer? Oh well, I'm not going to lose sleep over it because I don't think the Twins are in a position today where making a trade like that makes sense.
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Agreed, and I would love to be wrong on this one - when it comes to where the team is at today
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If they are 8+ games out? I think they'd be better off trading those guys, calling up Gordon to play 2nd. They wouldn't get a top 50 prospect for any of those guys, but they could get some nice lottery tickets. Probably improve their draft slot as well.
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My answer is firmly.. MAYBE. Like I've said, if Buxton and Sano stink, no I don't think it's open the next two years. If Buxton and Sano figure it out, then yes I think its open. Which is why I would not consider a trade today for Realmuto.
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Yes, that's where I am at. There is no need to make a decision either way right now. But the way I am expecting things to go, my moves would be to deal Dozier, Lynn, Rodney, etc. in month. But I do NOT think this changes the outlook for next year. I am still optimistic the ship can be righted.
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I've been as big of Buxton/Sano supporter as anyone, and I would bet on both of them as well. I'm just unwilling to bet with Lewis/Kiriloff at this point that this team is set to be GOOD next year (and I'm all but counting out the 2018 team)
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I think there's a vast difference between giving up on the next 2 years, and not trading for Realmuto now. I don't think its hyperbole to say this franchises entire short term fortune relies upon Sano and Buxton being very good to star level players. IF both of them are busts, where does this team sit next year WITH Realmuto? I think the answer is nowhere near the level of the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, Indians, etc. Which is why I see absolutely no reason to even be considering a trade like this as we sit here today
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Because the Twins rotations have stunk for 7 years they should just be happy that maybe Gonsalves, Mejia or Pineda are warm bodies? Woof I feel like I'm watching a different team than others in this thread when I see stuff like "this seasons opportunity" thrown in about a team who is currently trailing a rebuilding Tigers team and sits 5 games under .500
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You are not offering up anything except that Realmuto is good and would help the Twins. No one is disagreeing with that. The entire discussion is why should a team in the Twins current position make a trade like this where they'd very likely have to part with their top 2 prospects. What is your reasoning for completing a blockbuster trade like that now. Because you think this team can compete with the Astros, Yankees and Sox this year? Because they would certainly catch the Indians? I'm just asking why the urgency
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So in your opinion the only way for the Twins to ever compete is trading for Realmuto now? That seems to be what you are saying. You have provided absolutely no analysis on how they should complete this trade (Kepler + Garver? Lol), what they should do about competing next year, why they are completing it now (as they sit under .500 and 6 games back in Central). How many wins do you think Realmuto is worth to this team? Realistically what does he add from now through end of September, 2-3 wins? THAT is your solution for fixing this mess? BTW, Donaldson hit .270/..385/.559 last year with a 146 OPS+ and had a 4.9 WAR. But yes, my only solution was to sign a "mediocre" player like him (whos been hurt this year, making him gettable on a shorter term deal) EDIT: I've NEVER said they should wait for prospects like Lewis to arrive before they try to compete. I have said I would wait to see what they have in Buxton and Sano before going all in on a trade, since right now they have nothing with either of them and are a long ways from contention
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Right but the Mets didn't trade for Cespedes now, which is what people are advocating the Twins do with Realmuto. The Twins pitching is much better than it was in previous years, that's not really relevant though. The Starters are 19th in xFIP, 17th in FIP, 14th in ERA, 14th in WAR. Those numbers don't scream, look out American League. The mets respectively in 2015 were; 4,6,3,5 in those categories.
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It seems you are using "set" pretty loosely. Gibson, Berrios, Odorizzi, Romero and ?? Is certainly not a rotation I would consider "set". Other than the rotation, I would certainly look at bringing in a 3rd baseman (Gordon trade bait?) and moving Escobar to 2b. I like the idea of gambling on Josh Donaldson for 2-3 years because I think they need another RH bat. I'd certainly try to improve the bullpen (who's next years closer?). A 1st base/DH type is a need, with Sano filling the other. Lots of areas the team can improve that doesn't require trading Lewis and Kiriloff
