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alarp33

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Everything posted by alarp33

  1. alarp33
    We've gone round and round on this for weeks. Noone has said they should not add talent. Realmuto does NOT have to be THE talent added. You keep insinuating its trade for Realmuto or give up and thats just simply not the case.
  2. alarp33
    Well the Buxton / Sano "window" isn't really even open yet, since they are both in the minor leagues. But getting rid of Kiriloff or Lewis certainly doesn't bring you close to the Yankees in the next 2 years, and then Realmuto is a FA
  3. alarp33
    The Twins will not get a late 1st round pick as compensation for Dozier. It's very very unlikely he would receive $50 million in free agency, in which case his comp pick would be in the #75 range, after the 2nd round.
  4. alarp33
    I would not expect Gordon to be a 3-4 WAR player next season by any means, but I think he can be productive enough, the resources can be used elsewhere, and I don't have confidence Dozier is going to age well. The "killing 2018" comment is in reference to the fact their best hitter, who was entering a contract year, and needed to be heavily relied on, put up a .689 ops and 88 wRC+ in the 1st 3 months. The offense tanked, and Dozier was a big reason for that.
  5. alarp33
    I'm not, cuz I don't really have a strong opinion either way... I agree Dozier has been better the last 4.5 years, I don't think there's really any need to even debate that. I think the fact Escobar can play any IF position and is younger works in his favor going forward. Who knows how to predict Dozier going forward? He helped kill the 2018 season with his 1st 3 months, but if he stayed hot now I wouldn't be shocked. If I'm only signing one for next year, it's probably Escobar and I'm trading Dozier in 2 weeks. But that has a lot to do with wanting Gordon at 2B, and thinking Sano isn't going to play 3B next year.
  6. alarp33
    Do they say it matters? Probably. Is there tangible evidence a "high character" guy gets paid more? Probably not. I don't think there's many (any?) people who would call Ardolis Chapman "high character". A world series winner traded their top prospect for him in a pennant race, then his old team gave him $86 million that off season. Maybe performance matters more than character? BTW - what does "high character" even mean when it relates to Dozier? None of us are in the locker room every day, do his teammates all like him? Who on this Twins team does not have "high character"?
  7. alarp33
    I'm not weighing in on this one way or the other, but to talk about value today and going forward, you shouldn't use WAR from 4 years ago, especially because Dozier is the age where he's likely already passed his peak.
  8. alarp33
    Definitely agree with that. I'm just not sure I see a scenario where the Marlins trade Realmuto to the Twins and it doesn't include a hitter named Lewis or Kiriloff, and a pitcher named Graterol or Romero. And I think if they somehow were interested in a Kiriloff/Graterol package, you are probably adding in a pretty good 3rd piece as well.
  9. alarp33
    In what way does it matter? You obviously can’t quantify it, it’s never helped the team in the standings?
  10. alarp33
    That's really not true at all either. Teams do not pay 2.7 WAR players $15-20 million / year in the open market. Take a look at the Twins most recent off-season. Logan Morrison (3.7 WAR 2017) - 1 year/ $8 million Lance Lynn (3.2 WAR 2017) - 1 year / $12 million Addison Reed (2.4 WAR 2017) - 2 years / $16 million Will the Twins (if they don't trade him, which i expect they will) make Dozier a qualifying offer? Maybe if he heats up in 2nd half? They likely can pay Nick Gordon $550k to produce a win or two above replacement as a rookie and spend the $17-18 million elsewhere. His character also has no bearing, how he hits the ball does.
  11. alarp33
    Of course, my point is why would the Marlins want him as a centerpiece of this deal? He's a 24 year old who hasn't pitched in the majors yet and has a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter. Realmuto isn't getting traded for that.
  12. alarp33
    4 seam fastballs get crushed because they miss middle up, which is what Gray's biggest problem has been (command), not because they consistently stay low in the zone
  13. alarp33
    I'd wager heavily its far more likely the 8.5 game lead could be the difference
  14. alarp33
    Like the Twins sending Gibson down in a playoff race last year?
  15. alarp33
    - If the playoff game was tomorrow, I probably wouldn't start Gray over Gibson. If it was in 3 months I would certainly think long and hard about it. Gray has been a better pitcher throughout their careers, especially when you adjust for park. It's not even that close. - Fans don't matter. What we do, say and think has no bearing on how teams operate their roster. - Since the start of 2017. Jon Gray's GB% = 47.5%. Kyle Gibson's GB% = 49.7%. Jon Gray K%/BB% = 26.5%/6.8%. Gibson's = 19.7%/10.5%. What exactly makes Gray a bad fit for Coors yet Gibson a good one?
  16. alarp33
    4 of their top 10 prospects, which isn't even close to enough to get that deal done anyways
  17. alarp33
    I would look at this nearly the opposite way. The organization (which is what matters, not the fans) has a lot invested in Gray, and probably values him even higher than other organizations do. I don't understand why they would be willing to trade him for someone who comes with less team control and is not a clear upgrade
  18. alarp33
    "Quick fix" sign one of the best players in baseball and trade for the best catcher in baseball, easy!
  19. alarp33
    Yeah, I just don't think there's anyway they look at it and come to the conclusion Gibson would be much more valuable to a playoff push than Gray. I think any playoff hopes they have likely center around Gray figuring something out soon and rejoining the rotation later this month.
  20. alarp33
    I disagree that if they want to make a playoff push they would trade Gray in general... but I agree with your updated offer might at least make them think.
  21. alarp33
    By nearly any measure Gray has been a better pitcher than Gibson throughout their careers. And he has 2 more years of team control than Gibson. Why in the world would that be even worth considering for CO? And if for some reason he was put on the block, you don't think 28 other teams wouldn't make an offer better than that?
  22. alarp33
    I know he's in AAA currently but the Rockies aren't trading Gray for expiring contracts. If they do trade him it will be for prospects, and probably pretty good ones
  23. alarp33
    I know the $ amount / WAR is often thrown out there, but to be clear that's not how free agency works. No 3 WAR player signs for $30 million / year, so using that number is really irrelevant
  24. alarp33
    Very loose definition of "fact".
  25. alarp33
    You do not know that, which is why everyone is disagreeing with your posts. That is not how negotiations work. "We will really need a 2nd baseman and RH bat, but I don't know, we have seen the numbers and in 2013 Brian Dozier in close and late situations was brutal"
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