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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    The average may come down but the power will remain. And when you hit the ball as hard as he does consistently, the BABIP will be elevated from the norm anyways. So it shouldn't fall off the table completely.
  2. Taildragger8791
    The statement I was making is that Berrios has a big range right now of where he could end up. Few guys can really maximize their talents and hit their absolute ceiling because another gap in their game holds them back. My point was if he is one of those guys I could see him topping out as a #2 pitcher, but that's really hard to do and I like to set realistic expectations. So in my view his more realistic ceiling, the point at which I think everyone should be pretty satisfied, is if he settled in as a mid-rotation guy for a long time. That's very doable for him and would represent the best pitcher we've developed in quite a while around here. But first he has to get over whatever is holding him back from successfully making the jump from AAA to MLB. Lots of guys don't figure that step out and I wouldn't take it for granted that he will. In other words, I was trying to describe his probability of success as more like a curve. 5% chance he's a #2, 40% chance he's a solid mid-rotation pitcher, 35% chance he's a back-end rotation guy, and 20% chance he busts within 4 years. Only a 20% chance to bust is pretty good and well below the rate we've experienced around Minnesota for the last decade. And of course these numbers are very arbitrary and loose, but I hope it helps better illustrate the point I was making.
  3. Taildragger8791
    Looks like they just cut the whole hockey department too, doubling down that bet on football and basketball. They should just rename it "E!spn" since their time is increasingly spent reporting on tweets, debating drama that they themselves manufactured, and offering up superficial analysis like "which team wanted it more". Half the time I turn it on it's just Screamin' A. Smith yelling at me for some reason. I still haven't figured out what he's so angry about so I just turn it off as soon as I see his dumb face spraying slobber at the camera.
  4. Taildragger8791
    Get it all out of your system in one game boys. It still only counts as one L and we'll still happily take the series win.
  5. Taildragger8791
    He actually has 44 plate appearances which is a little more meaningful since he's been drawing a lot of walks. And only 4 strikeouts, which his impressive. I'm not making any statements on the situation, just didn't want that to fall through the cracks. (slowly backs out of the conversation)
  6. Taildragger8791
    Apparently Sano forgot he's not actually superman trying to stretch that double while weighing in at 265 lbs.
  7. Taildragger8791
    I hope Santana is keeping the arm loose. Heck of a long time to be sitting in the dugout.
  8. Taildragger8791
    Looks like Napoli got cheated on that throw.
  9. Taildragger8791
    Looks like control is still a little iffy. 3 walks in 6 innings (102 pitches) and 62% of his pitches for strikes. The strikeouts are nice, as are the low hits/runs totals. I'm guessing he didn't punch a ticket to the majors today though.
  10. Taildragger8791
    Is it Mauer? It's Mauer, isn't it. If I've learned one thing from reading STrib commenters it's that it's always Mauer's fault.
  11. Taildragger8791
    Buxton is officially en fuego.
  12. Taildragger8791
    I think that's pretty much the consensus. Nobody is saying he's toast or to give up on him. Just that there are legitimate concerns because of the ongoing severity of his struggles and ineptitude to this point. I just don't think pointing to mini slumps that other players have had really says anything useful one way or the other about Buxton. Particularly when those slumps don't really compare all that well (different root cause, different types of players, different era, etc). It would be more helpful to find cases of talented players that had his level of strikeout and pitch recognition issues and actually overcame them.
  13. Taildragger8791
    All players have slumps that even out in the long run, we know this. That doesn't relate to what Buxton is going through because this isn't just a slump, he's been totally inept with the bat (until yesterday). Other than his September swoon he hasn't shown that he can handle major league pitching at even a basic level in what is now his 3rd year in the show. It would be one thing if he was repeatedly oscillating between stretches of competence and slumps as he makes adjustments back and forth with pitchers. But this isn't that, this has been a guy that's totally lost at the plate and just trying random things to find something that works.
  14. Taildragger8791
    With a strikeout rate half that of Buxton's, and a K/BB rate closer to 2 instead of 7.
  15. Taildragger8791
    It's not about "proving" anything. I'm kind of tired of hearing that phrase. It's about going to an environment more conducive to learning and making adjustments for young players because the difficulty level isn't ratched up to 11. That said, I'm not ready to send him down yet since there has been glimmers of progress lately. Let's see if that turns into anything or if it's just a blip.
  16. Taildragger8791
    That's true. I think we all got a little ahead of ourselves getting enamored with minor league successes because we had absolutely nothing on the major league squad that offered hope. I think our expectations have been readjusted on prospects now that we've seen firsthand how difficult the leap from AA to the majors really is.
  17. Taildragger8791
    I've always wondered this as well. There are many reports about how great and major league ready most of his pitches are, yet that same stuff doesn't seem to be good enough to overpower minor leaguers. He gets by but it doesn't seem sustainable as he keeps moving up. But then again what do I know (don't answer that).
  18. Taildragger8791
    I'm not aware of anyone who really believes Berrios has near #1 upside, other than Twins fans that forgot what elite pitching actually looks like. I could understand saying #2 if he's one of those 5% of guys that truly maximizes their talent, but probability says he'd likely top out as a mid-rotation guy if he ever figures it out and sticks in the majors.
  19. Taildragger8791
    But yeah, it's awfully disproportionate that you can chuck a weapon at a guy and have your buddy shove him in the face for mildly reacting, and THAT guy is the one who gets suspended out of all that.
  20. Taildragger8791
    I'm just waiting to hear how long Tom Brady's suspension will be for this.
  21. Taildragger8791
    What is going on with Kohl Stewart tonight? 4 wild pitches already, along with 4 runs and a whole bunch of baserunners. The wheels are coming off...
  22. Taildragger8791
    Agreed. I'm thinking this can't just be a platoon thing since Mauer and Vargas are both playing.
  23. Taildragger8791
    That would make me more optimistic about the lack of promise in our pipeline if the Twins had a proven ability and desire to acquire pitchers from outside the organization. Because right now that's the only way this front office is going to get a league-average staff pulled together before the end of the decade.
  24. Taildragger8791
    So how do you differentiate whether the difference is due to luck or due to loss of effectiveness? It's surely a combination of both, but Gibson has been pretty ineffective for the better part of a year and a half now. It's not just luck that he's regularly living on the wrong side of his already unimpressive career numbers.
  25. Taildragger8791
    It's jarring how a few weeks of actual games played is all it takes to knock the rosy glasses off and remind everyone that bad players are still bad. Gibson only ever showed a glimmer of success and some fringe MLB qualities and that earned him a pretty lengthy leash in a lot of minds. The extreme cesspool of pitching we've been subjected to for over half a decade has apparently biased our judgement of what good pitching actually is. Sure, send him to long relief or AAA if you can since you have to pay him this year anyways. But he needs to be replaced at the earliest opportunity to upgrade or extend a tryout. Unfortunately we may not even have an opportunity with the pitching pipeline looking pretty barren and broken. Berrios is the only hope for upside for this year, and maybe Mejía. Both are gambles at this point. Gonsalves is a major question mark with both health and his 'stuff'. Romero is off to a tough start. Stewart is probably calling up Russell Wilson for advice on going back to football. Woof. Weirdly enough or strongest organizational position is suddenly middle infield and we can't even trade any of them for pitching help. Just a snake bitten team this decade.
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