Taildragger8791
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Everything posted by Taildragger8791
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That seems bizarre to me that at this late stage of his career Whitworth would want to go to a hopeless team like the Rams. The contract doesn't seem overly ridiculous like the one Kalil got, although it is plenty healthy for a 35 year old. I would think the Vikings could have competed with that if he'd given them an opportunity.
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I just have to trust the coaches to assess that based on their evaluation and criteria they set. It's not going to be based on box scores, it's going to be based on what they're seeing in his delivery, command/control, and overall approach to hitters. There were reports he was modifying his delivery due to the pitch tipping possibility, by bringing the ball straight back instead of around his back, so that's a legitimate thing that needs monitoring and a controlled environment to work on.
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I guess that's where we just have to agree to disagree then. I think whether or not he dominated in AAA already is totally irrelevant and there is still value in letting him go back and work on things with their perfectly capable coaches who have been instructed on what he needs to do to get back. If you can't rely on those coaches to help with a couple of basic adjustments then they need to fire the whole staff and start over. He doesn't need to be a finished product to be promoted but he does have to be able to tread water before he can really be let loose for an extended period to learn at the big league level. It's not fair to his teammates to put him out there to when he's downright drowning and placing all the stress on them to pick up the slack.
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He was called up. Then he failed spectacularly, proving he wasn't as ready as we thought. Now he can go back and work on some things and come up to try again. Probably in a month or two. Not that big of a deal. It happens with prospects sometimes. Unfortunately for the Twins it seems to happen way too often, but that's another issue that needs resolving. The disconnect here is that you seem to be arguing players can't do anything valuable in the minors if they're already putting up good box scores. I don't subscribe to that idea. I think guys can get reps to work on things in a lower leverage environment while not worrying that every little mistake is going to get punished horribly. Then he can come up when he's developed some consistency and comfort with his changes.
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Yes, what's your point? Is there some reason Viola couldn't have pitched in the minors for another year or two instead? Obviously it worked out but I don't think being dumped in the majors so early is what made Viola into a great pitcher, that was going to happen regardless. And it helps that Viola was at least somewhat surviving by managing 6 innings per start over those years, whereas Berrios has been absolutely drowning at barely above 4 innings per start with no sign of progress. You can't even compare the two. You can't keep running a guy out there who can't go past 4 innings and puts your team in a deep hole every time out. I'd be cool with giving Berrios a shot to open the season in Minnesota if Hughes proves not to be healthy and ready, but if he is then we're basically stuck with the 5 guys we got until someone gets hurt or plays themselves out of a job. It's totally fine to let the guy go back to AAA for a bit until everyone is comfortable he's ready to try again.
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It was blatant enough to see with peripheral vision. Granted I have a different view on a tv screen, but I tried keeping my eyes on his release point and looking for a flash of color in my peripheral. I forget which way it goes but in one case you see a lot more of the ball and get a clear flash of white, whereas in the other grip he palms or covers the ball with his fingers more and you don't see the flash of white nearly as prominently. Good hitters have incredible vision and reflexes and can key on that.
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Maybe they did but Berrios didn't think he needed to make the adjustment since he was getting results against inferior hitters. Either way, now that they're aware of it and Berrios has seen the results of his way they can make a plan and do something about it. If the AAA coaches can't coach then why the hell are they there? Fire them all then. I don't see the value in letting the player get thoroughly dominated and demoralized in the bigs if he's ineffective. And fans don't want to watch 2-3 months of losses and utter failures from unprepared prospects trying to learn on the job.
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He was found to be tipping pitches. It's a serious part of why MLB hitters smashed on him last year. He flashes his grip to the hitter during his windup and the off-speed and fastball grips are easily discernible. When it was first reported last year I paid attention to his next game and was able to call most of his pitches from home before every release. If my untrained eye can see that from home then you know the best hitters in the world are keying on it easily. He needs to fix it and that isn't an overnight adjustment for someone that's been throwing with the same motion for his whole career.
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If the Twins send Berrios back to AAA it isn't a punishment and it isn't because they need to see him dominate AAA hitters again, so you may as well stop repeating those thoughts. Nobody is arguing those points. The perfectly valid reasons for him to start in AAA is: 1) He's the only one with options and he hasn't demonstrated that he's any more ready than May to start. This is May's last opportunity and we have to find out now if he can hold down a starting gig. Hughes is the one that's really pushing him out. 2) He has to make real adjustments to his delivery to improve command and eliminate tipping his pitches. These are things he generally gets away with at AAA and gets absolutely clobbered for in the bigs. He'll get more practice on that in AAA by being in a more controlled environment and going deeper into games where he can build up confidence and repetitions. In the bigs he'd just be getting hammered and knocked out in 3 innings, slowing down his progress at the expense of MLB losses and the bullpen. The thing to remember here is he won't be evaluated on his box score, but by demonstrating to his coaches that he's made the necessary changes for succeeding at the highest level. So save yourself some heartburn when he isn't promoted the first two weeks just because you see some good lines on his stat sheet.
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Don't Fret About Twins Prospect Rankings
Taildragger8791 replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The fact is that professional sports is a business, in fact it's big business. It's competition. And big businesses bend every rule and contract they can to get an edge. Just because there's a stipulation in a contract doesn't mean it's going to be followed, it just means there needs to be a favorable cost-benefit analysis prior to breaking it. You don't have to like it, but if you want to compete then you have to be willing to accept it. And if you don't want to continue accepting it then you have to negotiate for stricter terms to shift that cost-benefit back to the disfavorable side of the ledger. Which is eventually what happened. The way rookie players have their service time toyed with wasn't within the original spirit of the CBA either, but all teams do it to some degree because they can get away with it (to an extent). Or Pujols getting all kinds of extra "marketing" agreements with the Angels extending beyond his player contract so they can avoid the luxury tax. Or the top drafting team every year leveraging the #1 pick into taking less than slot money so they can spend more of the pool on later picks. Where do you draw the line on fair and unfair? -
I agree that Vargas isn't an established major leaguer, I just meant that he kind of is what he is and we have a good idea of what we're going to get with him. He's 26 years old and has been up and down for a few years and is basically at sink-or-swim time in the major leagues. As for Berrios, if he is making serious adjustments to his delivery then no, I don't think he'll get to work on that as well because his primary focus will be winning games. Not to mention that he won't get as many innings/appearances in WBC as he would in ST. I also don't think we want random coaches on his WBC team screwing with his delivery and mechanics (remember complaints about last year when every Joe Blow had access to him to give advice?). The Twins' coaches are in the best position to monitor him and provide feedback on his progress, and he can throw whatever pitch as much as he needs to instead of worrying about game results and situations dictating his pitching. What if he reverts to his old form he's comfortable with and gets blown up all spring? Even if he reverts and succeeds, then he comes back to us a mess and will have to go to AAA to start over again so he can learn to reliably get actual MLB hitters out.
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Berrios is in a critical phase of development trying to transition from AAA wonderboy to MLB regular. This is an important time for him to be working on his adjustments he needs to make to be effective in the big leagues. Taking off to go pitch in the WBC, where he isn't getting critical instruction and feedback from his coaches and may not be building up the requisite arm strength he needs will naturally set him back. Berrios is also on the roster bubble, mostly because of those struggles, and by not competing or showing the coaches he made the necessary adjustment he's naturally put himself at a disadvantage in that 5th starter competition. That's his choice to make, and he made it. Santiago is a vet and is what he is. Vargas and Rosario are more established and known quantities and don't have any serious competition for their roster spots (whether or not they should is another issue). So these guys going off to the WBC for a while isn't much of an impact as long as they are professional enough to get themselves ready.
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Don't Fret About Twins Prospect Rankings
Taildragger8791 replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If it was truly intended to be a strict rule then the punishment should have reflected that. Instead it was implemented as more like a soft cap and a luxury tax, something that's existed in sports for a while and a handful of teams exceed when it's deemed to be worth it. Personally, I think it's a dumb system and I'm glad they changed it. But I'd be lying if I didn't admit that one reason I dislike it is because the Twins would never have the gumption to exploit it like other teams did. And let's not pretend like the Pohlads aren't adroit businessmen who are used to exploiting byzantine rules/laws/systems for their benefit. Heck, you don't have to look any further than Target Field to see one prime example. -
Don't Fret About Twins Prospect Rankings
Taildragger8791 replied to Brandon Warne's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I don't think it's fair to call it cheating. The system was created and agreed to by all teams. And the smart teams realized that it was more beneficial to accept the costs of exceeding their allotment than it was to stay within it every year. It's not "cheating" because anyone else was free to do so too. They didn't break a firm rule and try to get away with it, like paying players under the table. They played within the definitions of the system. It's no different than going over the luxury cap and paying a tax to do so. -
I kind of wish that system were changed a little. Make it so vested veterans can refuse assignment and walk away with 20% or 30% of their remaining contract and still get to be free agents. If they want their full remaining contract they can be sent down to clear 25-man roster space. They can always try to earn their way back, but this gives the team and the player some flexibility to move on from bad situations or at least make them better. I doubt many players want to be the albatross on a team who gets playing time or roster space based on his contract instead of his performance. Let him accrue MLB service time too if you want, I don't care. Just don't clog my roster. I'm sure this would open up avenues for abuse that need to be considered, but it's silly that teams are stuck reserving a roster spot for non-performing veterans just because their contracts by nature are expensive and guaranteed.
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I think that 2 WAR is basically Gibson's ceiling and his floor is obviously quite a bit lower, as evidenced by last year. 2 WAR shouldn't be the expectation, but the hope. My issue with him is he's so inconsistent. He seems to either give you a great game or sometimes short stretches of good games, or (more commonly) he's completely ineffective and gets lit up like a Christmas tree. When you average it all out it doesn't seem so bad but it hides how he taxed the bullpen and gave the team no chance to win in at least half of his starts. That wonderful 2015 that people like to point to as evidence that he's a good pitcher has some devils in the details. That season was anchored by a crazy strong month of May where he had a 1.36 ERA, something he has never come close to repeating (never within 2.40 of that in a single month again). He also had a couple of decent months at 3.73 and 3.93. Unfortunately he added three other months with ERAs of 4.84, 4.70, and 5.29. That speaks to what I was saying about how he can put together short competitive stretches (usually in the 3.70-4.00 range) but he'll also put up god awful stretches where he buries his team right off the bat. That's not a #3 pitcher and it's not a #4 pitcher on a good team. I'm not even sure anyone would accept that out of a #5 if they had playoff aspirations. Yes, I realize a month is a short sample size but it's the quickest and easiest way to illustrate how volatile of a pitcher he is, and how his overall numbers hide how ineffective he is in a significant proportion of appearances. If he put up a 4.40 ERA every month he'd be a much easier pitcher to live with as your #4 or #5, but the fact that he will single-handedly bury your team in half his starts is difficult to swallow. Edit: Disclaimer: No, I'm not advocating for cutting Gibson at this time. They're basically committed to trying him out this year to see if he can make an adjustment and recover his career. But he shouldn't be a lock to keep his position if he's sitting on a 5.00+ ERA mid-season and there are other young pitchers available to try out. He's not as proven or established and people like to believe and we need to keep looking to improve on his roster spot.
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Hughes' salary shouldn't matter to anything at this point. That's a sunk cost. Put him in the position where he brings the most value to the team from a performance standpoint. Don't care if that's in the rotation, bullpen, or off the roster, but I hope that is the only aspect the team is considering.
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I don't know why these names come up every time a pitcher lacks velocity. There's a reason Moyer and Radke were so exceptional. That's because it's really rare and difficult to be consistently successful without a good fastball. Hughes doesn't have a bag of tricks to throw at hitters, he has a fastball/cut fastball/curve and sometimes a change. The change is mid-80s, almost as fast as his new fastball, which doesn't work and is probably why he's all but scrapped it. And his delivery doesn't have much deception to it. So...long story short he needs a real fastball.
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Not necessarily. Pitchers can be behind their regular season form while hitters can be even further behind, thus still putting pitchers ahead of hitters. That makes sense when you think about what all goes into hitting vs. pitching. Hitters have to knock of rust on their swing mechanics and timing, pitch recognition, picking up spin and movement, reaction time, etc. Pitchers are mostly building up arm strength and regaining feel for their motion and pitches. Hitters have to react and be near perfect to have success, meaning often times the pitcher just needs to get the ball to the plate to have a good chance.
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I don't think Sano's strikeouts stem from a lack of work ethic, but they do concern me since I was hoping for improvement on that front. I'd expect that if his K's were going to get better then he wouldn't be already striking out constantly against rusty pitchers and minor leaguers throwing with restricted repertoires. Maybe he's just gotten by with his plate approach for so long that it hasn't been proven to him yet that it's an issue. And it's possible he's right, but this year will be a good litmus test on where he's at and how effective that approach can be. He's coming into his 3rd year, healthy and in shape, and at his preferred defensive position. There isn't much of an excuse to underperform.
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Vikings will not pick up AP option
Taildragger8791 replied to Mike Sixel's topic in Minnesota Vikings Talk
I think Latavius Murray would be a perfect fit. All around back and a great pass blocker. That would be a sight for sore eyes around here. -
Yeah in the end it balanced out, but as a broke college kid and broke new grad it still felt less painful (especially considering gas prices at the time). Premium isn't so much a rip-off as people just misunderstand what it's for. It's for high compression engines, common on sports cars, German cars, motorcycles, etc. Putting it in the family car or SUV is quite literally burning money, however. And I'm not aware of any vehicles that need the mid-level octane, typically everything is fine at 87 or is optimized to run on 91+.

