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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    I agree he's exciting and he might be one of my new favorite young prospects to follow this year. I just don't know how you rank someone so high with nothing to go on except unrealized potential. He hasn't demonstrated anything remarkable in game action yet so it's pure projection based on above-average raw talent and limited DSL time. I understand getting enamored with the upside, but the floor/ceiling spread is enormous at this point and should be considered.
  2. Taildragger8791
    Wiggins is a 2 masquerading as a 3 right now and I don't know if he'll ever put on the 20-30 lbs he needs to muscle up against the league's best small forwards. That means he and LaVine can't be on the floor together for extended stretches of time, and I don't know if a max contract LaVine coming off the bench can work financially or chemistry-wise.
  3. Taildragger8791
    Apparently KLAW really wants that credit for predicting Berrios' eventual failure.
  4. Taildragger8791
    Mike (edit: and markos) covered it pretty well. Javier and Gordon are 3-4 years apart developmentally and who knows what the MLB roster will look like in 4-5 years. You can't project baseball rosters that far ahead. That's why getting prospects is all about best player available, and let the chips fall where they may. If it causes a logjam then you have some good trade bait to rebalance things later.
  5. Taildragger8791
    I'd do everything possible to upgrade from Kalil, but I think we saw this year how much lower the floor is when you swap him out for just any guy. Bringing him back on a 1-year deal at least assures a minimum level of competence on the QB's blindside.
  6. Taildragger8791
    Do you even have to franchise Kalil? He might do a one year prove-it deal so he can cash in on a better multiyear deal next season. And where else would he have a better opportunity to showcase himself? If we can't sign someone else I'd certainly entertain that idea. You know you'll get the most motivated version of Kalil possible.
  7. Taildragger8791
    That might be a more popular opinion than you think. I sense there's a little more positivity around Mejia since he's basically found money, being acquired in the Nunez trade instead of coming up as a top prospect that we invested heavily in (resource-wise by the team, and emotionally by the fans). I personally wouldn't mind seeing him in the rotation out of spring training if he shows well. I think the guy could be a decent back-end starter and if we don't audition him soon he's going to get passed up for opportunities by the crew at AA. But with the long list of guys ahead of him I'm assuming he'll be in AAA for a while, barring injuries. At least that'll create some drama so we get to have an interesting debate later this year on who the next call-ups should be.
  8. Taildragger8791
    Love the optimism and I think it'll be a fun group to watch this year. I think the AVG/OBP are a little high for Buxton and Rosario, particularly Buxton's OBP unless he greatly improves at drawing draw walks. The SB are a little high too. Buxton will need to become an on-base machine and increase his aggressiveness to steal over 30 bases, and I don't think Rosario gets enough opportunities between the low OBP and only averaging a 65%-70% success rate. I would think he'll need to get that up to 75% to get the automatic green light. Everything else I think represents the realistic upside of this group, and they'll be one of the best things to follow in 2017.
  9. Taildragger8791
    I don't know if I'd call the pipeline "poor" but it's certainly not above average either, yet. The fact that we have some names to talk about seriously is a big upgrade from where we were the last several years, but I think we also forgot that's how it's supposed to be. Teams are supposed to have a steady trickle of MLB-quality talent. Otherwise you end up with 90+ loss seasons on the regular. But to get even a top-10 rotation out of this system it'll take a couple of lottery hits, big trades, or top free agent signings (if there's even any available). I like that we at least have a couple of lotto tickets for a change, which provides some optimism. This pipeline could look a lot better at the end of the season if they start to pan out. I just hope the front office has contingency plans for the next couple of years if they don't.
  10. Taildragger8791
    I don't think the team is going to have as much financial flexibility as you think if things pan out. The team will want to get Buxton and Sano under contract in the next couple years to control their arbitration costs and hopefully buy out some free agent time. That might be true of Polanco, Kepler, or Berrios as well. They'll need to acquire a top-end pitcher at some point unless we hit the lottery in a trade or the draft this year. And Dozier himself would be a $20 million per year player in 2 years if he continues to perform. He certainly wouldn't take a discount on the only big contract of his career. He's playing it smart and betting on himself to cash in on his production.
  11. Taildragger8791
    Well we always heard from Terry Ryan that the Pohlads willing to spend more money and weren't restricting him. I guess this next 2-3 years will put that to the test.
  12. Taildragger8791
    When does Punto slide (head first) into town?
  13. Taildragger8791
    Gotcha. I misunderstood the presentation of the data there. But 100 pitches at 95+ still isn't a lot. If he just flat out doesn't have the bat speed or reaction time necessary then he's done. But if it's just a mechanical tweak or learning how to time those pitches then he could still be alright. I still don't think we know which it is, so I'm not ready to close the book on him without giving him to opportunity to try.
  14. Taildragger8791
    I appreciate the analysis. There's definitely a pattern but it's hard to make a definitive judgement from these results with barely 1/2 a season of experience combined between AAA/MLB, especially when there was a questionable injury involved. He never got a chance to make an adjustment. And maybe the wrist injury played into his inability to adjust to heat (requiring more force on the affected area). We've watched plenty of rookies come up and pile up disappointing numbers, regularly taking 2-3 years of up & down play while learning. It seems premature to bury him. Hell, your own analysis showed he only saw 20 pitches all year at 95+ mph. He probably saw that many in all his time in Korea. I also have to add that I'm not surprised by a chart showing decreased performance with increased velocity. I'd guess that pattern exists for almost ever hitter. Unfortunately his baseline was already pretty low so the overall numbers look pretty poor. If this were a long-time minor league player I'd be more concerned, but let's give him a year with health to see if he can get used to velocity. I'm far from a rosy-glasses optimist but I do see potential with Park for one reason, which is that we typically see new hitters in the Show struggle with big league breaking pitches more than anything else. Park seems to already be tuned in on those. Give him a year to time up that bigger velocity and we could be handsomely rewarded.
  15. Taildragger8791
    People and sportswriters do get carried away with hyperbole and the over-simplified idea of "winners" teaching "how to win". But I do think there is something to be said for getting productive guys who are known to have good work habits and professionalism and know how to sacrifice personal achievement for the betterment of the team. It's no surprise that often those guys come from a winning background, since winning teams by nature have more of those guys than bad teams. Bonus points if that player has a reputation for actively reaching out to other guys instead of just quietly going about his business.
  16. Taildragger8791
    To be fair, nobody in this thread is questioning his effort or want-to. What I've read is pretty much everyone recognizing and lamenting over how serious the injury appears to be and expecting the worst. It might sound harsh, but if it turns out that his arm is toast it would be better for the Twins to know sooner than later so they can plan appropriately. I'd also hate for him to suffer a more permanent injury trying to come back for...what? A couple of seasons at 70% of what he was? If the injury really is that serious then I hope he's proud of what he accomplished and enjoys a long healthy life, and maybe comes back as a coach or FO contributor when he's ready.
  17. Taildragger8791
    It's the same compilation of guys either way so I don't think it matters in this case who's bat plays better where. Just find the best defensive combination and go from there. I'm not sure if Polanco can man 3rd with his arm but I see it brought up a lot and he did start there a handful of times last year. He has the range and the arm is less of an issue when charging in on the ball. You'd probably get more no-throws or late throws, but that might be countered by getting to more balls consistently. I see no reason Sano couldn't learn to play 1B adequately if he's athletic enough for 3B. If Mauer went down for the year I could see this being a pretty efficient way to fill the lineup. If we could get the 2014/2015 version of Escobar he'd slot in great at SS too. Of course I hope Mauer can be more effective with a reduced role, but it is interesting to see the creative combinations that open up when you remove his name from the equation.
  18. Taildragger8791
    I think he started all around the outfield and as time went on he split time between both corner OF and 1B to develop positional flexibility. They knew he was at least athletic enough for corner outfield, but I think I read somewhere that's a common development strategy for guys like that who can handle it.
  19. Taildragger8791
    Wouldn't it make more sense to move Sano across the diamond and shift Polanco to 3rd, then slot in your shiny new SS? That improves the defense at both positions on the left side while massively improving the 1B production. The only tradeoff is a hit to SS offense, which few teams are great at anyways.
  20. Taildragger8791
    I think if you had a spectrum connecting Chris Davis and Giancarlo Stanton Sano would currently sit somewhere in the middle. I'd place him to be a hair better than Davis due to the walks/pitch recognition and a little more power, but a fair bit behind Stanton due to the strikeouts and contact issues. I seem to recall a lot of swinging strikes from Sano on balls in or near the zone last year, and his strikeout rate needs to come way down for him to be more than a "3 true outcomes" guy, which is his floor right now. It would be great if he can shrink those holes and leap from that spectrum and onto whatever one Miggy Cabrera has been owning for over a decade. I know that's where we had our hopes set, even though a Stanton-type would still be a really darn good player.
  21. Taildragger8791
    I can't imagine these transactions impacted the assessment that much considering Light was expected to have a minimal role this year, and Park's production can't be that much worse than his main replacement in Vargas. Adrianze isn't going to supplant anyone without some serious injuries or total non-performance by Polanco & Escobar. There has to be something else driving these seemingly random predictions.
  22. Taildragger8791
    When do we find out if Park made it through waivers? I thought the window to claim a guy was only a few days?
  23. Taildragger8791
    Teams monitor strenuous innings as much as total pitches, especially with young pitchers. If a guy is throwing 30+ pitches per inning they're going to yank him sooner than later to protect him from himself. On top of it being more stressful on the arm, the guy may start overthrowing or losing his mechanics out of mental frustration, thus injuring himself in a game that was already out of hand.
  24. Taildragger8791
    It isn't "fine" just yet but there is a lot of talent in the lineup presenting a realistic potential for improvement. There are no guarantees, but there is a clear path to success there. That's miles ahead of the rotation which doesn't have anywhere near that level of upside in the system, nor is there even a clear path towards respectability.
  25. Taildragger8791
    Totally agree. The problem is he doesn't throw it over the plate. His last extended stint at AA (2015) he had 32 walks in 43.2 innings. There's no amount of strikeout ability in existence that can counterbalance walking a guy almost every outing.
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