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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    That looks a lot better, thanks. I think the page I was on yesterday was the "live analysis" page which was updating way behind the TV coverage.
  2. Taildragger8791
    Is there a good online tracker (not MLB.com, apparently) that updates pretty close to live speed? The MLB site yesterday seemed like it was several picks behind at all times.
  3. Taildragger8791
    And since the start of May it's more like a 32% k-rate, 6.25% BB-rate, slashing .243/.291/.379 (.670 OPS). In other words, he had a little bit of a lukewarm streak for a few weeks and depending on where you draw the line it'll drastically change the numbers. He's making some contact finally, but he's still struggling to draw walks or collect XBHs the last month and a half. I'll take the progress, but he's still pretty far from competent with the stick.
  4. Taildragger8791
    And he's hitting .200 in the month of June with zero walks. Arbitrary sample sizes are fun.
  5. Taildragger8791
    I wasn't aware we had two AA arms that together could nab a top of the rotation starter. If that were the case then I hope they pull the trigger sooner than later before any more arms fall off down there.
  6. Taildragger8791
    I don't think people generally criticize picking Buxton, because he clearly has immense talent. I think people criticize how the Twins have developed him since he still so frequently looks like he's completely lost and searching for clues at the plate. He stands out as a prime counterexample to the idea that was repeated a lot yesterday that the Twins excel at developing young, athletic position players. We've had a lot of prospects who profile that way and several even had great MiLB success, but they often floundered for years trying to transition to MLB before finally clicking elsewhere or busting. So, naturally people are skeptical of another player of the same mold being chosen 1-1 and already being lauded as a surefire future All Star with comparisons to Jeter. Nobody even knows what position this kid can play yet, or if he'll develop any power, or even be able to hit with his "non-traditional plate approach". I'm giving the new front office the benefit of the doubt since the kid obviously has a lot of tools and physical attributes. Hopefully the rest of the draft will reveal their strategy and validate their approach to the first few picks. I'm willing to be patient before I blast the selections, but they definitely stuck their neck out in their first year. Hopefully it doesn't result in it getting lopped off in 3 years.
  7. Taildragger8791
    The hits weren't hard but there were a lot of liners and grounders right back up the middle. I assume that means they were seeing his pitches clearly and weren't being fooled on speed or anything. If they were bloopers or seeing-eye grounders then I'd chalk it up to being one of those days, but it looked more like the hitters had him figured out a little bit. Might be time to make an adjustment, which should be expected when breaking in a rookie. Hopefully he figures it out.
  8. Taildragger8791
    He's only had 4 appearances this year, each spaced 3 days apart, with his first and fourth outings being fairly rough. I don't think he'll be considered for MLB call-up until he at least pitches effectively on short rest. I could see him going to AAA soon though. He finished last season strong there.
  9. Taildragger8791
    This. Everybody is on equal footing and 17 years isn't a small sample. Also, the only recent picks we've had that aren't in the majors and might move the needle are Gordon and a bunch of relievers, who by nature have a limited impact. Kirilloff and this year's 1-1 pick are far too much of unknowns to argue about. So it doesn't change the fact that we're in the bottom tier of draft & development success. Hopefully the new front office will right the ship. It'll take time to see results though, so we'll have to be willing to show some patience (which goes against the nature of a fan, I know).
  10. Taildragger8791
    I don't think it's quite that dismissable. It's still a strong data point to support the general sense that the Twins have been poor at drafting and developing talent for a while now. The last few years aren't going to change much, we'll add a few major leaguers to the total but it won't move the needle that much in the context of a 17-year sample. Other teams will likely match our gains and we'll still bordering on last place. In fairness the article shows we're closer to middle of the pack in WAR, but 20% of that is concentrated in a single 1-1 pick: Joseph Patrick Mauer. Not criticizing Mauer or drafting him, just pointing out that he alone vaults the Twins from last place to middle of the pack on that chart. When looking at individual years there are plenty of defensible reasons brought up for why the Twins failed to draft enough quality MLB players. But over 17 years? No. Just...no. That's systemic failure. The most common one I've grown tired follows this format: "Other teams passed on [insert player] so you can't blame our front office for not realizing they were a promising player worth drafting". I hate that argument because if it were valid then it instantly removes any and all liability for failure to acquire talent. You're effectively saying the draft is 100% a lottery and we may as well fire the scouting department and just knock $1 off all items at the concession stand instead.
  11. Taildragger8791
    I considered that, but it's awfully difficult to consistently isolate all your 'badness' into a concentrated set of games while reserving your 'goodness' for the other set of games. Unpredictability and unintended consequences will spill over at some point. Having 3 pitchers with an ERA under 4 is nice, but we still don't know that Mejia is for real and Santana is starting to throw clunkers with more frequency (3 of his last 6 starts). Berrios will likely have ups and downs as he gets established. Something has to give, either the record will start to erode or the pitching staff will have to get shored up quickly.
  12. Taildragger8791
    That's based purely on the fact that Turley is an unknown. It's very likely he'd be far worse than Santiago.
  13. Taildragger8791
    Pretty remarkable that a team can be in first place 1/3rd of the way into a season while having one of the worst run differentials in the AL and posting 4 pitching appearances from a position player. How long can this really be sustainable?
  14. Taildragger8791
    It's nice to see Mauer is on a good hitting streak but I'll wait a few months to say he's back to form or reports of his decline were silly and out of line. We've seen him get hot for stretches before. I hope he carries it through the year but I'll reserve judgement until it's proven out over more than a month or two.
  15. Taildragger8791
    Whoosh. Apparently I did. My sarcasm meter is a little wonky until that 2nd cup of coffee.
  16. Taildragger8791
    Cubs have a World Series and Astros are beating the pants off everybody this year (including us, in a humiliating sweep). I wouldn't say the Twins are on that level yet. And I wouldn't say our success is sustainable until they turn over most of the pitching staff with quality MLB arms, which is no small feat.
  17. Taildragger8791
    Wimmers actually had 16 appearances with the Twins last year, but his minor league track record is pretty poor anyways. Wheeler has an ERA of 4.28 since the start of 2015. There's a reason neither of those guys have really forced their way into even this piss poor bullpen. Most of the names you gave have defensible reasons for not being forced to the majors sooner: Busenitz was just traded to the Twins late last year and needed time to be evaluated.I'm not sure about Hildenberger, but as someone mentioned he may just have an obvious ceiling like Anthony Slama did. Coaches seemingly don't think he's for real.Baxendale doesn't have the numbers or track record to suggest he's going to succeed.Curtiss was in A ball last year with an ERA over 3 in a A+ (a pitcher's league even).Bard was also mostly in A+ ball and hasn't blown away any level he's been at. I admittedly don't know why Melotakis seems to be getting slow played, that one's a mystery to me. But I haven't followed him closely. Regardless, almost none of these guys are the ones who have a chance to anchor a bullpen. Most will probably flame out with a cup of coffee or hang around for a few years. The few arms we had with true top end talent were battling injuries or performance issues or were simply too young. This just seems like complaining for the sake of complaining. Truth of the matter is we don't have healthy, MLB-ready, impact talent in this system right now.
  18. Taildragger8791
    Jay just returned from bicep tendinitis and has only made one appearance in his new role as a reliever. He'll take time to settle in and make sure he's healthy. Although with bicep tendinitis on the table I'm sure it's only a matter of time until Jay's arm is on the (operating) table.
  19. Taildragger8791
    I hope one lesson we've learned from this is that "blocking" prospects on this team is rarely the issue some think it is. There were 4-5 minor leaguers being penciled in to save the 2017 bullpen and pretty much all of those options have cratered only 2 months into the season, leaving us with nothing. Pitching injuries and prospect development is just too much of a minefield to pinpoint when guys will be ready and able to help. I'd rather build depth from every source and let prospects force their way onto the roster. You can always make room and make trades if you find yourself with an embarrassment of riches.
  20. Taildragger8791
    I'm not sure what you're talking about or what you think I said. The only point I made was to refute the idea that a college pitcher is somehow more of a sure thing to stay healthy than a high school pitcher just because he has more years of use on his arm without injury (yet). That's all I was ever saying. I understand why that idea makes sense logically but I'm not aware of any statistics which bear that out. And the recent experience of the Twins has actually been the reverse of that. The next reply to me said the Twins' experience was irrelevant because their pitchers were mostly drafted later in the first round, but I don't see why that matters if we're limiting it to a discussion of health. If someone wants to do the analysis I'd be more than interested to see it. But I certainly didn't say anything about not drafting pitchers in general.
  21. Taildragger8791
    I don't see what it matters if a guy is an early or late first round college draft pick with regards to expected health.
  22. Taildragger8791
    He's on pace for 147 games played this year, so it doesn't look like he's getting rested or platooned all that much. Maybe that'll change if Park forces a promotion, but that doesn't look to be happening anytime soon. Edit: For context, that would be a tie for the 2nd most games he's ever played in a season.
  23. Taildragger8791
    Just saying...Gibson, Wimmers, and Jay were all college draft picks and either underwent Tommy John or had other injury issues within the first couple of years. Jay was shut down early last year due to soreness and still isn't ready to pitch yet this year. Not much word on when he will return either. Meanwhile, Stewart was the high school pick and has overall been pretty healthy. So I don't think there's ever any guarantee of future health.
  24. Taildragger8791
    Let me paraphrase and then misattribute as a direct quote: "Ervin Santana a much better pitcher than Clayton Kershaw - confirmed." -- Snepp
  25. Taildragger8791
    There is likely a lot of bias in that stat. What if you limit it to players picked in the first couple of rounds? College players have been much more sorted out for MLB potential by the time they're drafted, so there's some selection bias there. High school players are much more of an unknown and there are WAY more of them to draft than college players, with a much larger variance in talent. So yeah, it should be pretty expected that a random college player is more talented than a random high school player, and that talent is more of a known commodity due to more exposure to scouting evaluations.
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