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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    His August 2015 BB and K rates were better but his production was down (hit .193/.305/.339 with only 3 HRs). The reason I pointed out his numbers this July is because he maintained or improved production while bringing down his K rate and maintaining his BB rate. I made the table by using a website that creates the HTML code, then using a text editor to find/replace the "<" and ">" with "[" and "]" to convert from HTML to the BB codes this site recognizes. The site I used was: http://www.tablesgenerator.com/html_tables Make sure to turn off the "generate css" option. I created and imported a .csv file in Excel to load the data into the table.
  2. Taildragger8791
    Totally agree, I'm not even an ABW III disciple. Just interesting to note actual progress in all 3 areas for a change. He's at 15 games for July, btw, so a little over half a month's worth of games.
  3. Taildragger8791
    Interesting to note that ABW III is on pace to have one of his best months in terms of balance between SO% and BB% while still producing. In the past it was always a tradeoff between those things. BB% is around his career norm (9.7%) while SO% is down to 29% for the month of July, down from his usual 40%. He could just be swinging a hot bat but hopefully it's a sign he's starting to see pitches better. I wish I knew how to make this table not look huge, but the data is interesting to see. [table] MonthABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOAVGOBPSLGSO%BB% April '1566916405116290.2420.3010.53040.3%8.3% May '151072327717287390.2520.3040.53334.2%6.1% June '159518307111288410.3160.3710.75839.8%7.8% July '151007215131711420.2100.2860.37037.8%9.9% Aug '1510913217031718360.1930.3050.33928.3%14.2% Sept '1525551025180.2000.2220.48030.8%3.8% April '166181431273250.2300.2660.41039.1%4.7% May '169312202081313490.2150.3150.49546.2%12.3% June '169212196051811420.2070.2830.43540.8%10.7% July '1656102151386180.3750.4440.66129.0%9.7% [/table]
  4. Taildragger8791
    A 10%+ ROI with growing equity in a nearly fail-proof business sounds pretty good to me. Not sure why they'd feel any desire to sell. That's pretty tough to beat. But I'm also not a billionaire businessman and I have no idea what other projects they may want to focus on.
  5. Taildragger8791
    Even though the penalty period has expired it doesn't mean it makes business sense to cash out. It only makes sense if they think the Twins valuation has maxed out or is slowing in growth to the point that they can reallocate that investment elsewhere for a bigger return. $450 million in the bank doesn't do anything for you and they have plenty of other assets to play with. I don't see them selling unless they just don't want to put the energy into the team anymore.
  6. Taildragger8791
    Just because they don't love baseball doesn't mean they don't love the money and opportunities that come with owning a team. The only reason to sell would be because they can get a better return on their investment elsewhere. Hard to beat out a sports franchise in terms of growing value. Also, when does the penalty for selling the team run out? That was a stipulation of the shiny new ballpark we bought them.
  7. Taildragger8791
    Wow. They really did it. It's sad to see it end that way for Terry but hopefully this is a sign of good changes to come.
  8. Taildragger8791
    I believe the quote also said something like "our phones are open, call if you have any ideas", which is a pants-on-head crazy statement from your GM. You'd like to see a little more direction and pro-activeness projected from your front office. Hopefully it was a poor choice of words and they have a better plan than letting other teams frame the trade proposals. Appearances matter when you're putting on such a display of suckitude for several years now. I'd also be pretty frustrated if they dumped Polanco for anything less than a sure-fire starting-caliber player. He's a young MLB-ready middle infielder who can legit hit and we're going to burn him because we can't stomach losing one of Escobar/Nunez/Dozier? Pretty short-sighted unless they have good reason to believe he can't establish himself at SS/2B.
  9. Taildragger8791
    NOBODY could have seen it coming? That's a pretty bold statement. Maybe not to this severity but it shouldn't have been a total shock that he'd regress considerably and be thoroughly mediocre. His career ERA is 3.83 which is high for a supposed back-end reliever, and 2014/15 were clearly much better than his established baseline. Even his minor league performance was pretty rough until his call-up year. Sustained excellence shouldn't have been the expectation. I also found it interesting that he was 10 for 26 in save opportunities in his career at the time we acquired him. That may not be the best statistic but it speaks a little to his performance in high leverage situations.
  10. Taildragger8791
    Way to jinx it. Now we won't see him til September.
  11. Taildragger8791
    I know the Twins have been pretty bad, but they're not an MILB team yet.
  12. Taildragger8791
    Speaking of Burdis, has there been any further updates on our own Burdi? It's been dead quiet on him and he's been out a suspiciously long time for a bone bruise. Reportedly he had a setback, but I'm not sure how you have a setback from a bone bruise. Surely there is more going on?
  13. Taildragger8791
    That's fair. I certainly didn't want more vets other than for the bullpen and catcher, and I supported playing the young players who were ready. Yet when you look at this roster it wasn't particularly well built to do that. Plouffe displaced Sano, May displaced to the bullpen, Polanco can't crack the roster, Arcia pushed off the roster completely, no backup for Buxton and Rosario if they need to go down, etc. These are moves of a team thinking it can win and compete now, but then again the lack of offseason moves conflicts with that. The whole division went out and got better and we stood still with an awkward roster overflowing with dead weight vets mixed with really young players. It's tough to buy that Terry had zero opportunities to clean that up a little. And waiting 3-4 years for all the bad contracts to run out isn't realistic. The confusion regarding the plan or expectation for this year is where my frustration is largely stemming from. We went for a middle-of-the-road approach which seems to be taking us nowhere. Thankfully it appears the team is starting to prioritize the youth over vets, so hopefully they stick with that plan for the rest of the year.
  14. Taildragger8791
    I was about to say the same thing before I saw your comment, so instead I'll highlight it. If a few veterans underperform or fail then you can reasonably lay most of the blame on those players. If they all struggle or fail then maybe they weren't as good as you thought to begin with. That has to shift some blame to the front office and coaching. Similarly, if a few marginal prospects don't make it then you can blame it on them being marginal prospects. But when nearly all your top prospects keep falling off a cliff then it again points to the front office and the coaching. Either they are picking talent poorly, they are developing it poorly, or the players were pulled out of the oven half-baked to try and cover up other roster mistakes.
  15. Taildragger8791
    The obvious implication of calling out Murphy's Law is that "bad luck" and the universe conspired against the Twins to generate all these negative outcomes. It's a flawed analogy which deflects blame though, because in the end real people caused and are perpetuating this train wreck with no end in sight. It's not Murphy's Law when you buy 20 lottery tickets and only get 1 winner for $10. That's the expected result when you gamble, and based on how many times the word "hope" or similar appears in the article I'd say that's exactly what the Twins did.
  16. Taildragger8791
    I know you jest, but I was trying to be optimistic about the future and the playoffs should be what we're building for, right? It may be 2018 or 2019, but if Dozier is still supposed to be considered part of the future then his performance should be analyzed in that context. I'm glad he's showing some life again and if he somehow sustains it that would be awesome. But, as the article stated, he's probably still going to be prone to long slumps due to matchups and adjustments and that could be a big liability when everything gets tighter in October/September. We should be thinking about what it takes to win championships, not just build a .500 record and be relevant. His past performance may average out over a long season to look palatable, but in a short winner-take-all series it could sink you. A top-half of the order hitter that can be wiped out by careful pitching and shifts is a liability in the playoffs when your opponent fields top of the line pitchers and defense almost every night. Maybe I'm being too idealist, but I'm tired of trying to find reasons to be content with "not that bad" instead of asking for "good" and "great".
  17. Taildragger8791
    I want to be okay with Dozier's approach, but he needs to drastically decrease the length and severity of his slumps to justify it. Hitting below replacement level for 2-4 months at a time seriously hinders the lineup's effectiveness. Consistency counts for something too, not just career averages. Like a "volume scorer" in basketball who's jumpshot goes cold, you have to keep giving them shots until they get going because you're dependent on that production. Meanwhile, you're digging yourself into holes and losing winnable games. What do you do with Dozier if he's mired in an extended slump come playoff time?
  18. Taildragger8791
    And horrible April and spring training. His May stat line is driven by a hot first 8 games of the month where he hit .370 and had an OBP of .452. The next 8 games (taking us to today) were .200 and .285, respectively. So he's shown signs of life but yes, he's still struggling.
  19. Taildragger8791
    Kepler had to be put on the 40-man starting in 2014, so an option was burned even though he stayed in A+ ball the entire time.
  20. Taildragger8791
    You're going to have to pick and choose which of the young players you want to give MLB time. You've argued to have everyone from Buxton to Kirilloff playing with the big club right now. This isn't beer league softball so someone has to sit. Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Sano, Arcia, and I'll throw in Grossman (he's shown potential value and is actually performing) all need to play as much as possible.
  21. Taildragger8791
    The list seems pretty agreeable except I'd have a tough time putting Kirilloff into the top ten already. His floor/ceiling spread is huge since he's a total unknown (like most players after the top 5-10 picks), being anywhere from perennial all-star to AAA-washout. He has power, doesn't offer premium defensive value, and could prove to be fatally flawed with this swing length/speed. That puts names like Arcia/ABW/Vargas/Palka/Colabello in my head. Hard for me to push that projection above guys with a floor of actually contributing at the MLB level.
  22. Taildragger8791
    Hopefully studying the Wikipedia page for "strike zone".
  23. Taildragger8791
    Even Killebrew went back down to the minors after his bonus baby year in the majors (when that was a thing) and that was in the mid-50's. It's beyond outrageous, that's easily exhibit A in your plea for insanity if you're on trial this week.
  24. Taildragger8791
    Comments like that just make all the other believers in super aggressive promotions look conservative. There is a line somewhere, between letting guys gradually develop in the minors and pushing them up as fast as possible, and you pole vaulted right over it.
  25. Taildragger8791
    If you dump him and replace him in the offseason you aren't very likely to do much better, and now you've just added significantly to your payroll for no real improvement. The Twins aren't exactly a bunch of miracle workers are picking up free agent pitchers.
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