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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    I don't know if Park qualifies as a "bounce back" candidate since he hasn't really set a baseline to bounce back to yet. He hit some long homeruns and had a couple short stretches that looked competent, but otherwise flailed a lot and was demoted as a result. I'd put him in the same category as the young guys that are still developing and establishing who they're going to be (Sano, Kepler, Vargas, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Duffey). Most of them will be ok and find a role on the team, a couple will fizzle out. That's just the nature of the game. When it comes to guys I think of as actual bounce back candidates (Hughes, Gibson, Perkins, Plouffe, Mauer), I don't have faith that any of them will get back to even their median performance levels. Plouffe likely needs to be moved to clear roster space and save Molitor from himself. The rest of them will get their opportunities but I certainly don't want to depend on them. There needs to be a Plan A that doesn't require gambling on these guys to be key contributors. That kind of "planning" is how we ended up with a persistent tire fire on the pitching mound all year instead of actual big league pitchers.
  2. Taildragger8791
    I'm struggling to get a feel on what Sano is going ultimately to be as a hitter. His basic slash line looks alright at a glance for a run-producing power hitter, but I came away from last season with the feeling that while he had some big hits he also had way too many at-bats where he came up short or was non-competitive. Particularly in key situations. That's just going off my general impression I remember from the season, however. Looking at his splits might explain where that feeling came from: after the all-star break he only hit .228/.286/.452/.738, while before the all-star break he hit .243/.350/.472/.823. The weak finish to the year is probably weighing down the impression I took away. The other thing that sticks out is that when he's behind in the count he's struggled mightily. I'm sure most people on here remember later in the season when the analysis came out that he does most of his damage after working his way ahead in the count or to a full count. What I see is that his damage came on the first pitch or when he gets to start out ahead in the count. If he starts out behind or gets 2 strikes his numbers fall way off, particularly in the power department. In 2016 he hit .172/.235/.323/.558 after 0-1, hit .185/.185/.296/.481 when behind in general, hit .219/.223/.439/.662 when even, and with two strikes he hit .123/.210/.230/.440. One more thing I thought was interesting. I seem to remember Sano having trouble with high heat last year, and swinging through those pitches often. BBREF has a split for power pitchers and finesse pitchers, and here were his stats with regards to that: Power: .168/.248/.267/.515 Avg: .232/.325/.465/.790 Finesse: .285/.359/.589/.948 Perhaps the heat is what he's struggling with after all? If he can learn to recognize pitches faster or catch up to the faster pitches he could break out in a big way. But until he closes that hole in his swing good pitchers with high heat will continue to minimize him.
  3. Taildragger8791
    Acquiring a closer in mid-season is way more difficult and expensive, and leaves winnable games on the table that can make or break your season. Similar to what happened in 2015 when we went into the year with a shoddy bullpen, tried to patch it up mid-year, and missed a playoff spot by a few games as a result. I don't expect that to happen next year considering how abominable and unsalvageable our rotation is, but the scenario you described is a too-little too-late approach. It's not prohibitively expensive to get a one or two year deal on a bounce-back candidate free agent, and there's room in the bullpen to add a piece. Why not cover your bases and give yourself a chance? There will still be plenty of opportunities to break in young pitchers without over-relying on them to be ready. Then, if we have another 102-loss team on our hands you can hopefully trade that veteran for something if they managed to establish some value.
  4. Taildragger8791
    I'd agree with that, but I don't think hardly anyone is seriously advocating for a long-term big money FA for the bullpen. Nick's suggestions, and most of those I've seen in this thread, were talking about buy-low 1- or 2-year deals on bounce-back veterans. With the additional consideration that said veteran could be flipped for trade value if they reestablish themselves. Any thoughts of getting a Jansen/Chapman type sounded pretty tongue-in-cheek to me.
  5. Taildragger8791
    I don't really understand the aversion to spending the Pohlad's money. I don't think their budget is strained, and there won't be any new money spent on SP or the lineup this next year. So who cares about a few extra bucks spent on the bullpen?
  6. Taildragger8791
    The like didn't show up until after I got the reply, my bad. It's entirely possible, he's just got a big uphill battle starting this next year to make it work. He's going to get plenty of opportunity to try. The difference is he's gone from someone we hoped to be comfortable slotting into future rotations to someone that we need to ready a backup plan for, which certainly complicates things for the 2018+ teams.
  7. Taildragger8791
    I was being cheeky, and I assumed you were too. I just don't see the value in comparing to all-time greats who were extremely exceptional at how they succeeded. Tons of pitchers have better raw stuff and strikeout rates than Maddux that wash out of baseball every year because they don't figure out the finer points required to have actual success. Nobody ever advocated to cut him so I don't get point of that snark either. It's entirely reasonable to have doubts about a prospect while supporting him.
  8. Taildragger8791
    And worse BB/9, H/9, BB/K, and way less innings per start.
  9. Taildragger8791
    Berrios and Gonsalves are the only pitchers in that list that are intriguing to me for next year. May, Duffey, Gibson, Stewart, and Mejia are lottery tickets to even be serviceable. We're going to go through a lot of pain next year while we figure out who can play but hopefully it'll set up a somewhat established rotation and bullpen for 2018. Jay needs another full year of development and building innings, but he has real promise with his stuff. Looking forward to seeing how him and Thorpe recover from their injuries and develop next year.
  10. Taildragger8791
    I don't know if being 21 is an excuse for having a track record of low strikeout rates. Strikeouts at those lower levels are achievable largely on stuff alone. By far his best K rate above rookie ball was 7.6/9 when he repeated high-A this year, and otherwise has rates of 4.6/9 (AA), 5.0 (High A last year), and 6.4 (Low A last year). Those are remarkably low for someone who scouts think has such good stuff, so I don't know what to make of him. Is it sustainable to rely on inducing poor contact against major league hitters? The Gibson/Pelfrey comps make sense but those guys still had managed decent strikeout rates in the minors. How many MLB pitchers thrive with a K/9 below 6.0?
  11. Taildragger8791
    Again, I basically agree. I'd rather dump Santiago and his salary to open up a spot. If some team offers up a promising young starter then of course I trade Santana. But I don't think there's a logjam preventing those guys from coming up next year. Gonsalves won't be up until mid-season most likely, by which point there will be a spot for him. Jay and Stewart might be looking for room in the second half and by then another 1 or 2 guys will have pitched themselves out of a job or be hurt. If not, then that means the rotation is doing pretty well and don't need to be replaced anyways. But most likely two out of Mejia/Gibson/May will be replaceable before the end of the year.
  12. Taildragger8791
    I agree on Dozier, if there's good young pitching or catching talent to be had in a return. I guess I agree on Santana too but I don't see the market for him. Age/contract are going to work against him. Rather than get a mediocre player that's going to clog up a spot I'd rather let him continue to lead by example for the young pitchers, and provide a little stability so the bullpen can maybe get a break every 5 days.
  13. Taildragger8791
    That sounds like a big assumption you made there. Just to provide some context, even if that did shave off half a run it would only take our starting rotation from the worst ERA in baseball (5.48) to the second worst in baseball. They would need to shave off another half a run to get just outside of the bottom third in baseball, and then almost another half a run to get well into the top ten. That's how far we have to go. And with all the work there is to do breaking in young pitchers and fixing our veteran ones there's little chance they will be significantly better than Nolasco, Milone, Duffey, or Dean were this year.
  14. Taildragger8791
    Realistically, there aren't any options to turn over this rotation in one year other than getting Sandy Alderson liquored up at winter meetings and tricking him into trading Syndergaard and deGrom for Plouffe and Duffey. So we're going to just have to suck it up and relive this season again next year while we wait on options to develop, and yes it's going to be a bunch of try-outs and burnouts and 95+ losses. I doubt you'd get more back from trading Santana than you'll get from playing him. He provides some stability and mentorship to the other pitchers. I don't want to sell the farm for veterans. Dozier is the only chance to get some talent back but the 2B trade market may be weak with how strong that position has been this year, and it's rare for the Twins to sell high on a player, so I don't expect anything to happen. The only chance to improve this junk rotation is to swap out the coaching, because that's the biggest common thread between so many sub-par performances. You can't fire every pitcher on the team, especially when there is clearly some talent there. With that, then the hope is that next season provides clarity on these things going into 2018 on how to build a better rotation: Which Gibson is real, 2015 or 2016? I have my doubts but there isn't anyone pushing him out at this point so you have to let him keep trying, even if it hurts to watch.I'm not crazy about Santiago but he'll eat innings...maybe. If the money could be reallocated more effectively I'd be for cutting him though. I worry he's going to underperform and eat the money instead of innings like almost every other pitcher we've run through here. Whether that's due to coaching, defense, or a warlock's curse I don't know yet.Can Berrios make the leap?Can May start and hold up?Give Mejia a long tryout to see what we have thereAt mid-season, audition Gonsalves and later on Stewart to see what they look likeIf Jay has a big year at AA I'd be okay with giving him a little time later in the year, maybe out of the bullpen to startAlso: Put Duffey in the pen and let his two good pitches play upHughes also stays in the pen all year unless he suddenly goes "Rookie of the Year" and starts throwing fire. He's likely done as a starter.
  15. Taildragger8791
    I noticed that as well. The wrist is bent more and the hand cups around the ball more. It adds up to a noticeable difference rather than just looking for the extended pinky.
  16. Taildragger8791
    It seems tough to believe that you don't have to catch much to learn how to play catcher. You can practice and chat with coaches all you like but there's little replacement for live reps, and experiencing the game situations and pressures. Garver is going to finish the year with maybe 60 games above A ball at one of the toughest defensive positions, where he was already raw at to begin with. How is it that he's supposedly ready to handle the big league staff with so little advanced-level experience? Unless he made huge progress he's going to need another year just to accrue maybe a typical full season's worth of starts above A ball. I don't know what the reasons are for not getting him more starts, but it's hard to buy that he's going to be ready for the majors until he gets more game time behind the dish.
  17. Taildragger8791
    ERA alone in the minors doesn't mean much. K's, BB's, efficiency, and in-person scouting tell a much better story. Lots of pitchers get by on fringy stuff that they know how to get minor leaguers out with, especially in A ball, but then it doesn't translate to the majors. To this point he's performed like a cross between Gibson and Blackburn and hasn't excelled at anything, but he hasn't failed or stagnated either. He's young, I just don't see how you can expect major growth at this point. And without major growth he doesn't elevate the rotation or becomes more than a fringe #5 guy. If I'm planning a rotation roadmap for the next two years I'm certainly not reserving a spot for him. If something changes then they can always work him in somewhere later.
  18. Taildragger8791
    Whether or not it's "putrid", a pitcher who gets shelled every other outing is still tough to live with. He struggles to get through 5-6 innings almost every start, even in those 0-3 run games. He puts piles of guys on base and puts his team on their heels the whole time, requiring them to get to every ground ball in order to limit the damage. He rarely has a clean game where you can count on him to eat innings and take pressure off the defense and offense. I'd still offer him arbitration because he won't be expensive and this rotation is going to be warmed over dog doo doo next year anyways. But that doesn't mean I'm content with his performance, and I'd still be looking to replace him ASAP. I also sure as heck wouldn't let him block a prospect that forces their way into the rotation next year. The offense and bullpen are slowly getting better and it's time to raise the bar for expectations from all 5 starters before we squander too many more seasons.
  19. Taildragger8791
    You don't see how I can draw the conclusion that the Thins have drafted terribly? I didn't think that was a secret. I understand once players are in the system they all go through the same development channels. All I said is the Twins have somehow done ok lately at identifying and signing international talent, which is in contrast to their performance in the draft. I don't know if they're bringing in different types of players that fare better in their system, or they just got lucky on one side and unlucky on the other. You really think it's an unfair standard to ask for an average of 1-2 quality major leaguers out of the draft every 2-3 years? Because right now it's more like every 4-5. The Twins can't outspend their poor drafting like the Yankees, so they have to be better than league average at it.
  20. Taildragger8791
    Sano and Kepler were international signees, not draft picks. For some reason the Twins seem to do okay at signing international talent and are abysmal at selecting and developing from the draft. I don't know what to draw from that but a team like the Twins will never compete without doing well at both.
  21. Taildragger8791
    A number of pitching prospects look promising for a change, but after the number of faceplants we've witnessed I can't put too much faith in even dominant MiLB results right now. Especially when the Twins have been so poor at drafting/developing starters for decades. Until it happens I won't assume anything more than #4/#5 production and I'd still be looking to add a frontline starter from outside the organization for next year, if possible. The offense and bullpen have an opportunity to be league average or better next year and I'd rather not squander another season with a trainwreck rotation that's waiting on talent or is forcing unproductive prospects into it. Make guys force their way into the rotation with excellence and let's go win some games. If they're as good as people say they'll make it and we'll have an embarrassment of riches for a change. I know that may be an unrealistic fan's perspective but I'm tired of failed expectations and can't be sold on promise anymore.
  22. Taildragger8791
    Is there someone that can elaborate on what aspect of his defense is so deficient? I guess I haven't seen enough of him out there to notice more than a couple bad plays. He's not the fastest but he doesn't look like he's pulling a sled either. Considerably better than Delmon Young looking like he's pinching a penny between his but cheeks as he waddles. Does he take bad routes or misjudge balls? He seems to catch what he gets to and the arm looks passable. It's confusing how he could be rated so poorly when he looks to have average athleticism and baseball smarts.
  23. Taildragger8791
    Not at all, it's probably much better. Against lefties in the minors this year he was .500/.545/.850. He's clearly HOF against southpaws. Don't mind that it was only 20 AB. I kid. No I don't, but I don't think it's terribly far off other than the power may be inflated. He does have a history of hitting well against lefties, especially looking at his minor league splits over the years. Why not ride it out and see if he can keep it up? He isn't blocking anyone this year. It wouldn't work out logistically, but he'd platoon well with Palka if they find themselves on a roster together. Palka does quite a bit better against righties over his career, especially in the power department.
  24. Taildragger8791
    If you have a player hitting .333/.422/.538 I don't think you give half a rip about their defense as long as it isn't a total horror show. We experienced many years of Willingham and Delmon for less than that.
  25. Taildragger8791
    I'd still rather prioritize the guy that can be league average all around over the guy that's elite defensively and a black hole offensively.
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