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Taildragger8791

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Everything posted by Taildragger8791

  1. Taildragger8791
    Or "Rubio practiced 1,000 jumpers a day with shooting specialist Mike Penberthy this offseason".
  2. Taildragger8791
    Except now you're giving up (potentially multiple) youthful players or prospects. And as a result you'll looking for a new 2B in a couple years when this core they're trying to build should just be entering its prime.
  3. Taildragger8791
    I don't know if there's actually any truth to this, but I'd be interested in some stats to back it up. However, it is true that over recent years umpires are calling the low strike more and that's traditionally been Mauer's weaker part of the zone. That's led to more strikeouts and weak contact, but not because he's getting screwed on bad strike calls.
  4. Taildragger8791
    I hope so, I just see it being difficult when the guy had a relatively short run of greatness compared to most HOF careers and his game was built around contact & on-base skills and gap power. He had very good defensive skills too, I think that gets lost a lot. It might take him a lot of years on the ballot. It would really help if he had some postseason accolades to point to, but alas, the damn Yankees and Phil Cuzzi. 50 career WAR also looks to be on the low end for HoF hitters that played in the last 40 years, and if they're considering only his catching years then he compiled about 45 WAR during that time. I don't think piling up 1-2 WAR per year at 1B for 5+ seasons is a factor in his case.
  5. Taildragger8791
    If he gets in it'll be on the batting titles, MVP, elite years of AVG & OBP, and some future generation of sportswriters that give weight to advanced stats during his catching days. Nothing he's doing at 1B is really helping his candidacy since he doesn't have the counting numbers that impress. He never cracked 100 RBI, only cracked 90 RBI once, and even 70 RBI only five times. Only one season above 13 HRs and six seasons in the double digits. Walks and doubles don't help much unless they come from an elite runner and base stealer. The counting stat he does have is hits, as you mentioned. It's not a sure thing, but he should reach 2,000 hits if he's healthy and plays at least 3/4 time the next two years or has a big bounce back year. I'm just not sure that'll be enough without elite run production, game-changing power, base-running numbers, or something else to go along with it. Especially when the last 5 years of his career will have been padding that hit total with replacement-level play at 1B.
  6. Taildragger8791
    Good teams don't avoid adding talent because they're worried about blocking a bunch of mediocre or unproven players. They stockpile as much as they can and sort it out later. Most of that sorting happens naturally because the flameout rate is so high on young players. It might sound promising to rattle off a long list of names but that list gets thin in a hurry when you really evaluate it. Santana is in his mid-30's and is the best pitcher in that group, he's not going to be here for much longer. Gibson could pitch himself out of a job this year. Hughes is a lottery ticket to ever start effectively again. May and Duffey are running out of time to establish themselves in the rotation and may be permanently bound for the bullpen. Berrios has a long ways to go and his talent will get him a lot of time to work through his struggles, but you can't count on his future right now. Mejia isn't a game changer. That leaves a lot of potential openings to rotate prospects through in a year or two. Furthermore, those prospects have ceilings as 4's and borderline 3's in some cases, with a few that could fall back to being solid relievers, but the failure rate is so high that I'm not worried about blocking someone if it means acquiring a solid #3 or better pitcher. The truly good players will always separate themselves and force their way onto the roster.
  7. Taildragger8791
    The point is that Dozier's performance is relatively negligible in the win/loss result for this team as-constructed because they are so uncompetitive. It's a pointless luxury to have a slugging second baseman when you're fielding a league-worst pitching staff paired with poor defense and a streaky lineup.
  8. Taildragger8791
    It doesn't cost the Cards anything to negotiate and drive up the price, so ROI isn't a factor. The point is to prevent the Dodgers from getting that 40 HR 2B on the cheap.
  9. Taildragger8791
    Not as long as you may think. Pitchers and catchers report in 7 weeks!
  10. Taildragger8791
    I don't know if I'd call the Twins' approach to the offseason "aggressive" yet. They signed a defense-first catcher and with the Dozier trade losing steam there's a realistic possibility that ends up being the only move. If nobody gets traded we're going to have another awkward roster with a homeless Polanco, logjam at 1B/DH, Rosario entrenched at full-time LF, and a messy musical chairs rotation & bullpen that'll see regular churn as guys play their way out of jobs. I'm not sure what they could have done better this offseason other than execute trades though. Young guys need to play. It'll be a little disheartening to see a familiar-looking disheveled opening day roster. Hopefully the kids will be better and show real progress and give this season some life and hope for the future.
  11. Taildragger8791
    At this point it's silly to expect or plan on anything from Hughes. He's coming off a pretty mysterious injury, with a surgery that only had marginal hopes of fully resolving the problem. If he comes back healthy then that's a happy surprise and he can work out of the bullpen until he proves his arm is good to go. Then maybe move into the rotation when a spot opens up due to inevitable injuries and poor performance.
  12. Taildragger8791
    It's absolutely a Twins problem, not a small market one. High end pitching talent is rarely available in free agency for less than exhorbant prices unless there are serious health issues attached. It has to be acquired through drafts, international signings, and prospect trades. Of course, you have to keep the talent you managed to get, not squander it away in busted trades (this has been a Twins issue with all types of players).
  13. Taildragger8791
    If the Twins really saw strong potential and signability in Springer I doubt they'd have waited until the 48th round to pick him. It was almost surely a gamble pick on a talented kid that was bound for college. It just doesn't pass the sniff test as a genuinely realistic selection.
  14. Taildragger8791
    Seems to me it should be Santana, Berrios, Gibson, May, and Santiago. This is the last chance to find out if May can start, and see if he stays healthier doing so. Everyone else to the bullpen, AAA, or DL (Hughes, I assume). Hughes can go to the bullpen when he returns. If De Leon shows up it'll get interesting but I'd still start him off in AAA and work guys in as injuries/non-performance open up opportunities.
  15. Taildragger8791
    As much as I hate the White Sox with every bone in my body, I gotta give them credit for being aggressive and effective in player acquisition and also for cutting bait on players when they aren't getting it done.
  16. Taildragger8791
    To add to that, Moncado's strikeout rate ballooned to 31% at AA. And in a display of irresponsibly short sample sizes - Moncada had a 12/1 K/BB rate in his 20 MLB plate appearances last year.
  17. Taildragger8791
    Well he's not going to get signed by a contender due to his qualifying offer, so if he wants more money or opportunity he'll have to go to a bottom-10 finishing team. He wouldn't have to move his family since he'd know full well that it would be a half-season stint if he performs, and a 1-season stint if he doesn't.
  18. Taildragger8791
    Not necessarily, considering Bautista is an outfielder. He'd probably rotate through the DH spot at times but he won't clog it up. One of those guys might have to go down at some point, but with the inevitability of injuries they'll still see plenty of playing time. Mauer and Sano (due to inability to stick at 3B due to performance and health) will be blocking those two more than anything.
  19. Taildragger8791
    I like this idea. It would be an improvement in the on-field product, a good veteran presence for the team, and a pretty good chance to be flipped for something better than whatever would be available with that 2nd round pick. And the return player(s) would hopefully be closer to helping the major league club than a draft pick.
  20. Taildragger8791
    Agreed. I just want to make sure that we don't trade the potential to be significantly better in 3 years for the potential to win a few more games next year. We still have a couple more years of growth and prospect graduations to go through before this team is likely to really take off and be pennant-quality.
  21. Taildragger8791
    Setting the bar for "middle of the pack" in the division is pretty weak though. Sacrificing future potential for a pennant-winning team in order to push for being the division pain-in-the-ass isn't enough for me or most people. And nobody outside the home market cares about teams that finish 3rd+ place and 10+ games back in the division. Sure, it was fun at first when the Twins were winning a weak AL Central in the mid-00's. But if you just wind up getting embarrassed and out-classed in the playoffs every time it really takes the shine off those division crowns and seasons. Why not learn from that and push to be better?
  22. Taildragger8791
    I don't know if Park qualifies as a "bounce back" candidate since he hasn't really set a baseline to bounce back to yet. He hit some long homeruns and had a couple short stretches that looked competent, but otherwise flailed a lot and was demoted as a result. I'd put him in the same category as the young guys that are still developing and establishing who they're going to be (Sano, Kepler, Vargas, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Duffey). Most of them will be ok and find a role on the team, a couple will fizzle out. That's just the nature of the game. When it comes to guys I think of as actual bounce back candidates (Hughes, Gibson, Perkins, Plouffe, Mauer), I don't have faith that any of them will get back to even their median performance levels. Plouffe likely needs to be moved to clear roster space and save Molitor from himself. The rest of them will get their opportunities but I certainly don't want to depend on them. There needs to be a Plan A that doesn't require gambling on these guys to be key contributors. That kind of "planning" is how we ended up with a persistent tire fire on the pitching mound all year instead of actual big league pitchers.
  23. Taildragger8791
    I'm struggling to get a feel on what Sano is going ultimately to be as a hitter. His basic slash line looks alright at a glance for a run-producing power hitter, but I came away from last season with the feeling that while he had some big hits he also had way too many at-bats where he came up short or was non-competitive. Particularly in key situations. That's just going off my general impression I remember from the season, however. Looking at his splits might explain where that feeling came from: after the all-star break he only hit .228/.286/.452/.738, while before the all-star break he hit .243/.350/.472/.823. The weak finish to the year is probably weighing down the impression I took away. The other thing that sticks out is that when he's behind in the count he's struggled mightily. I'm sure most people on here remember later in the season when the analysis came out that he does most of his damage after working his way ahead in the count or to a full count. What I see is that his damage came on the first pitch or when he gets to start out ahead in the count. If he starts out behind or gets 2 strikes his numbers fall way off, particularly in the power department. In 2016 he hit .172/.235/.323/.558 after 0-1, hit .185/.185/.296/.481 when behind in general, hit .219/.223/.439/.662 when even, and with two strikes he hit .123/.210/.230/.440. One more thing I thought was interesting. I seem to remember Sano having trouble with high heat last year, and swinging through those pitches often. BBREF has a split for power pitchers and finesse pitchers, and here were his stats with regards to that: Power: .168/.248/.267/.515 Avg: .232/.325/.465/.790 Finesse: .285/.359/.589/.948 Perhaps the heat is what he's struggling with after all? If he can learn to recognize pitches faster or catch up to the faster pitches he could break out in a big way. But until he closes that hole in his swing good pitchers with high heat will continue to minimize him.
  24. Taildragger8791
    Acquiring a closer in mid-season is way more difficult and expensive, and leaves winnable games on the table that can make or break your season. Similar to what happened in 2015 when we went into the year with a shoddy bullpen, tried to patch it up mid-year, and missed a playoff spot by a few games as a result. I don't expect that to happen next year considering how abominable and unsalvageable our rotation is, but the scenario you described is a too-little too-late approach. It's not prohibitively expensive to get a one or two year deal on a bounce-back candidate free agent, and there's room in the bullpen to add a piece. Why not cover your bases and give yourself a chance? There will still be plenty of opportunities to break in young pitchers without over-relying on them to be ready. Then, if we have another 102-loss team on our hands you can hopefully trade that veteran for something if they managed to establish some value.
  25. Taildragger8791
    I'd agree with that, but I don't think hardly anyone is seriously advocating for a long-term big money FA for the bullpen. Nick's suggestions, and most of those I've seen in this thread, were talking about buy-low 1- or 2-year deals on bounce-back veterans. With the additional consideration that said veteran could be flipped for trade value if they reestablish themselves. Any thoughts of getting a Jansen/Chapman type sounded pretty tongue-in-cheek to me.
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