Absolutely correct. That's why teams sign them to an extension (see Phil Hughes) and then let them go at the magic age. Full discolsure, I thought Santana's signing was bad and that worked out for us. I thought signing Phil Hughes to an extension at 28 wasn't a bad move and that didn't work out so well for us. Typically, starting in their early 20's their athletic ability tops out while their baseball IQ increases. Somewhere around their late 20's to early 30's, their athletic ability starts the downward curve and they become more reliant on their baseball IQ. Their ability to extend their career beyond age 30 really depends on their baseball IQ. So, if I were evaluating a pitcher north of 30, I would focus primarily on baseball IQ rather than fastball velocity, or the snap on their breaking ball as those can fall off quickly. Hopefully, they don't get dumb overnight.