Shane Wahl

I have scrapped my earlier project of going by YOB. Why? Well, it took long enough to do . . . for things to slightly change in my mind here and there, so that the numbers were going to be messed up. Making a prospect list always involves weighing a bunch of different factors: floor/ceiling, durability, progress through the system, starter vs. reliever, positional versatility, etc. So it had changed enough for me to just go back to the old-fashioned way of constructing such a list. One thing that I really like about this result is that the honorable mentions that I list are all intriguing players. Honorable mention: J.T. Chargois, Chih-Wei Hu, Dereck Rodriguez, Kuo Hua Lo, Brandon Peterson, Madison Boer, Hudson Boyd 65. Tyler Grimes, C/2B, RH, DOB: 7/3/90 2013 A-: .256/.377/.382 (.759, career .708), 11 doubles, 4 triples, 6 doubles, 45 strikeouts/87 walks, 3 stolen bases/1 time caught stealing. Grimes has now spent three season in low A. The move to catcher makes his potential offensive contribution more valuable. Obviously he will be starting in Fort Myers and provides nice backup middle infield potential as well. 64. Kyle Knudson, C, RH, DOB: 9-12-87 2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 200, .273/.355/.352 (.707, .660), 8-0-2, 18-31, 0-1 Knudson is a good catcher with decent offensive capabilities. If the Twins finally part with Danny Lehmann and also opt not to bring Eric Fryer back (both wise moves) next year, Knudson should join Danny Rohlfing in Rochester next year and be the next guy in line after Mauer, Doumit, Herrmann, and Pinto. Given that Mauer is likely going to see a steady decline at the plate, Doumit should be traded, and the latter two aren't established, Knudson might see some time in the big leagues in 2014 or 2015. 63. Taylor Rogers, LHS, DOB: 12/17/90 2013 A-/A+ (A+ stats): 130.2 IP, 2.55 ERA, 83/32 strikeouts/walks (career 7.4/2.3) 2013 was an impressive season for the lefty. His K rate fell dramatically but he really kept the ball in the ballpark, giving up only five homers in A+. It was a solid step forward for Rogers and some more time in Fort Myers could really help him develop further. 62. Angel Morales, OF, RH, DOB: 11/24/89 2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 418, .239/.304/.427 (.731, .761), 23-5-12, 32-127, 8-7 When Morales lost most of the 2011 season, one might have thought that it was just one lost season and that it was no big deal in the long run. But it wasn't until 2013 that Morales finally showed mastery of A+ ball. Once a part of a dynamic quartet of Twins OF prospects (with Revere, Benson, and Hicks . . . wow), Morales is now struggling to stay in the system. His AA performance was shockingly bad. That he was still able to ascend a level leads me to believe that the Twins should still not give up on him and hope that another year of AA baseball will help him, but he certainly cannot remain on the same timetable. 61. Stuart Turner, C, RH, DOB: 12/27/91 2013 ELZ: .264/.340/.380 (.729), 5-0-3, 12-22, 0-1 That he is likely soon a major league ready defensive catcher is going to keep him on this list for awhile, though I was disappointed with his selection by the Twins in the 2013 draft. He's a third-round pick who could turn out to be Danny Lehmann, most likely becomes Drew Butera, and hopefully turns into a better defensive catching version of Chris Herrmann. 2014 in Cedar Rapids is going to be indicative. 60. Steven Gruver, LHR, DOB: 6-30-89 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 79, 2.85, 76/29 (7.0/2.7) Gruver has moved to full-time relieving duties. He did not pitch very well in a small amount of A+ time in 2013, so he will be headed back there for 2014. He's one of a ton of left-handed middle relievers in the organization, so he is going to have to distinguish himself. 59. Matthew Koch, C, RH, DOB: 11/21/88 2013 A+: 393, .278/.346/.401 (.749) (.768), 20-1-7, 35/75, 1/1 Koch has a solid bat and I was surprised that the Twins didn't promote him in the second half of the season this year. If he starts the season well at New Britain next year, this could lead to a jump on this list. 58. Pat Dean, LHS, DOB: 5/25/89 2013 AA/AAA (combined stats),: 165, 4.04, 83/22 (5.5/1.6) It is hard for me to imagine Dean being a major league starter. He will start in Rochester in 2014 and hopefully the K rate improves. Otherwise he is a less effective version of Andrew Albers. Now it is possible that he could regain some velocity and be a serviceable lefty out of the bullpen down the road. 57. Tim Atherton, RHR, DOB: 12/7/89 2013 A-: 95.2, 2.54, 102/33 (10.3/3.9) Atherton turns 24 in two days so the time is now for him to move. I don't see any future as a starter, and that's fine. He could be a contender for the Twins bullpen by 2016. 56. Zach Larson: OF, RH, DOB: 10/8/93 2013 GCL/ELZ (combined stats): .300/.380/.433, (.813), 11-1-5, 19-39, 12-2 Larson put up intriguing numbers in 2013 and it was a bit out of nowhere. A full season in Cedar Rapids is going to be telling. If he stays at these kind of numbers, then he might be a real talent. 55. Mike Kvasnicka, RF, SH, DOB: 12/7/88 2013 A+: .282/.341/.460 (.800, .703), 13-2-9, 23-59, 4-4. Kvasnicka is a good story and perhaps a late bloomer. Drafted 33rd overall by the Astros in 2010 out of the University of Minnesota, Kvasnicka did very little until his first year in the Twins organization this past season. He should start in AA in 2014 and he will be one to watch. 54. Fernando Romero, RHS, DOB: 12/24/94 2013 GCL: 45, 1.60, 47/13 (8.9/3.2) Romero turns 19 on Christmas eve of this year. He has a very good fastball but there is still a lot of work for him to be regarded all that much higher on this list at the moment. Another solid season in 2014 (this time in E-Town) and Romero could be a fast-rising pitcher, however. 53. Edgar Ibarra, LHR, DOB: 5/31/89 2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 60.2, 1.93 54/29 (7.8/3.9) Ibarra had split time as a reliever and starter up through 2011 and he was not very good. In 2012 he was not very good as a reliever, but in 2013 he emerged as quite effective, really limiting the number of hit off of him. But he continues to walk a lot of batters and his strikeout rate is declining. This coming season he could rise in the Rochester bullpen as the left-handed setup man. I put him one spot ahead of Dean because Dean could potentially be Edgar Ibarra 2.0 will a similar move to the bullpen. 52. Nelvin Fuentes, LHR, DOB: 4/7/89 2013 AA/A+ (combined stats): 51.1, 4.03, 58/17 (10.1/2.8) Fuentes can really strike guys out and in 2013 he started to limit hits given up at a more acceptable rate for A+ ball. He's a talented lefty who should get a second shot at starting in AA next season and hopefully he continues to progress. 51. Cole Johnson, RHR, DOB: 10/6/88 2013: A+/AA (combined stats): 59 IP, 3.20 ERA, 65/20 K/BB (career 9.7/2.6) Johnson could shoot up the list quickly if he can maintain this strikeout rate. I imagine he will start at AA next year, but could be quick to ascend if anyone at AAA or with the Twins falters (and someone likely will). This wraps up the first segment of my prospect countdown. 50 all the way through 11 will be down 10 prospects at a time, and the top 10 will be broken up in fives.

I will go with Kent Hrbek.

1. Byron Buxton 2. Miguel Sano 3. Alex Meyer 4. Eddie Rosario 5. Kohl Stewart 6. J.O. Berrios 7. Max Kepler 8. Josmil Pinto 9. Jorge Polanco 10. Stephen Gonsalves 11. Trevor May 12. Travis Harrison 13. Adam Walker 14. Jorge Felix 15. Lewis Thorpe 16. Danny Santana 17. Kennys Vargas 18. Michael Tonkin 19. Dalton Hicks 20. Zach Jones 21. Miguel Sulbaran 22. D.J. Baxendale 23. Niko Goodrum 24. Tyler Duffey 25. Randy Rosario 26. A.J. Achter 27. Yorman Landa 28. J.D. Williams 29. Dakota Watts 30. Aderlin Mejia 31. Tyler Jones 32. James Beresford 33. Matt Summers 34. Adrian Salcedo 35. Daniel Ortiz 36. Nate Roberts 37. Deibinson Romero 38. Levi Michael 39. Logan Darnell 40. Amaurys Minier 41. Matt Hauser 42. Alex Wimmers 43. Corey Williams 44. Luke Bard 45. Ryan Eades 46. Lester Oliveros 47. Mason Melotakis 48. Brett Lee 49. Dan Rohlfing 50. Jason Wheeler 51. Cole Johnson 52. Nelvin Fuentes 53. Edgar Ibarra 54. Fernando Romero 55. Mike Kvasnicka 56. Zach Larson 57. Tim Atherton 58. Pat Dean 59. Matt Koch 60. Steven Gruver 61. Stuart Turner 62. Angel Morales 63. Taylor Rogers 64. Kyle Knudson 65. Tyler Grimes Honorable mention: J.T. Chargois, Chih-Wei Hu, Dereck Rodriguez, Kuo Hua Lo, Brandon Peterson

You DID get me to click on this and read it. And post.

I enjoyed this blog post. I agree about drafting a college starting pitcher and will use BCLSPA from now on.

I will proceed in two parts. The first one is a realistic prediction for how the Twins might navigate in this offseason. The second is what I think I might do if I were actually the GM. First scenario: Trade Ryan Doumit to the Texas Rangers for RH SP Nick Martinez. Justification: unless the Rangers strike gold and land McCann, resign AJ, Soto, Murphy, and Cruz, and refrain from trading anyone else, it looks like a cheap DH/C/RF option with a potentially good enough bat might be something the Rangers need. Nick Martinez ranks around 15-20 in the Rangers system and has a career 3.30 ERA in 327.1 minor league innings, compiling an 8.1/2.7 K/BB rate, reaching AA in 2013 (which is where he would start in 2014). The Twins are in need of some SP support between Gibson, Meyer, and May on one end, and Berrios, Sulbaran, Stewart, Thorpe, etc. on the other end. Martinez would join Baxendale and Duffey in that spot, and is probably better than both. Sign RH SP Phil Hughes to a 3 year, $39 million deal. (13 a year) Sign LH SP Chris Capuano to a 2 year, $15 million deal. (7.5 a year) Starting rotation: Kevin Correia Phil Hughes Chris Capuano Kyle Gibson Scott Diamond/Vance Worley Bullpen: Send Ryan Pressly to Rochester to get back to starting. LR: Swarzak/Diamond/Worley MR: Tonkin/Swarzak MR: Thielbar MR: Burton SU: Duensing SU: Fien CL: Perkins Lineup: vs. RH Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Arcia, RF Willingham, DH Plouffe, 3B Hicks, CF Pinto/Herrmann C Presley, LF Florimon, SS (some Escobar action here against righties) vs. LH Hicks, CF Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Willingham, DH Plouffe, 3B Pinto, C Arcia, RF Presley, LF Florimon, SS Bench: Herrmann, C/LF/RF Parmelee, 1B/RF Escobar, Util infield Chris Colabello 1B/RF (Deibinson Romero next option in AAA for bench role) Sano should be up fairly quickly. May, Meyer, Rosario, and perhaps Buxton to follow by the All-Star break at the latest for the first two, and September for the second two). Sano joins the team and Trevor Plouffe moves to platoon with Presley, and someone (Colabello, probably) gets optioned. I am then looking to *unload* that bullpen as long as the replacements are doing well in AAA. I am thinking Burton, Fien, Swarzak, and Duensing flipped at the deadline or before. Achter, Watts, Oliveros, and Ibarra could be suitable replacements on the roster, with Tonkin (likely) moving to the setup role for Perkins. Trading Doumit and adding those two free agents would make for a rather modest $76.5 million payroll. * * * The second scenario involves being more proactive, unloading some more payroll before adding much more back. Trades: 1. Josh Willingham and Casey Fien to Baltimore for RHP Parker Bridwell and LHP Lex Rutledge. Justification: The Orioles are going to want one bat and to bolster their bullpen. They do it here for very cheap, especially since I would pay part of Willingham's salary if necessary. Bridwell is young with great stuff. His numbers are very Trevor Mayesque at this point, but he is still figuring it out. He would start in A+ in 2014. Rutledge would start in A+ as well, and might be worth taking a look as a starter again. He was bad early in his career there, and was very good as a reliever in 2013, but he does have a good curveball to go with a decent fastball and that could mean for more experimentation this year, perhaps splitting time and get over 100 innings this year. 2. Kevin Correia and Jared Burton to San Francisco for LHP Ty Blach and RHP Keury Mella. Justification: The Giants want A: a solid starting pitcher, and B: a solid MR/SU man. For $8.75 million, they get both of those things here (or less, I would pay some salary to make this happen). Blach is a LH starter who ranks around 10 or so on Giants' prospect lists. He would start at AA in 2014. Mella is very young and missed a lot of bats in rookie ball. He is a RH starter and would start in A- in 2014. 3. Sam Deduno and Anthony Swarzak to Philadelphia for LF/RF/1B Cameron Perkins and RHP Jeb Stefan. Justification: the Phillies pitching situation is a mess and here is a way for them to improve it for $1.5 or so million. Lannan and Kendrick are not very good, Cloyd needs more time in the minors, and they could try Swarzak out as a starter. Deduno and Swarzak would be 4-5 after Lee, Hamels, and Pettibone. Perkins posted a .790 OPS in A+ in 2013. He's a RH bat with doubles power and plays corner OF and 1B. He would fill an organizational void in the OF in the middle of the system and would immediately be a better option than Danny Ortiz, Angel Morales, etc. moving forward. Stefan pitched fairly well in A-ball in 2013 and would start the system in A+ starting for the Miracle or developing into a setup man. 4. Ryan Doumit to the Texas Rangers for RHP Nick Martinez. Justification: see first scenario. In all of these cases, the Twins should think about paying part of the 2014 salary to lure these teams to make these deals. Let's just say that salary contribution totals $8 million. The guys dealt with substantial contacts totals about $20, so this amounts to a saving of $12 million, dropping payroll to $47.5 million or so. Try to sign: Masahiro Tanaka for a $55 million post and a 6 year, $60 million deal. FAIL (Yankees will win): S Sign Ervin Santana for a 5 year, $85 million deal. Sign Phil Hughes to a 3 year, $39 million deal. Sign Chris Capuano to a one year, $8 million deal (and hope for deadline trade this way) With Santana, Hughes, and Capuano, this adds $38 million, meaning an $85.5 million payroll. Rotation: Santana Hughes Capuano Gibson Diamond/Worley Bullpen: Send Ryan Pressly to AAA to become a starter again. LR: Diamond/Worley, or Hendriks, or Albers MR: Watts MR: Oliveros MR: Thielbar MR: Duensing SU: Tonkin CL: Perkins Lineup: vs. RH Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Arcia, DH (but with OF time) Parmelee, RF Plouffe, 3B Hicks, CF Pinto/Herrmann, C Presley, LF Florimon, SS vs. LH Hicks, CF Dozier, 2B Mauer, 1B Plouffe, RF Pinto, C Colabello/Arcia DH Romero, 3B Presley, LF Florimon, SS Bench: Herrmann, C/LF/RF Colabello, 1B/RF Escobar, Util INF Romero, 3B/1B I understand how this lineup looks, and I understand the animosity towards Parmelee and Plouffe, and the craziness that appears to be involving Colabello, Romero, Pinto, and Herrmann in such a meaningful way. Moving Plouffe to RF, however, makes room for Sano to play 3B when he arrives and to have both Sano and Plouffe in the lineup against lefties. Sano would replace either Colabello or Romero on the roster. Rosario and Buxton would follow eventually. I would definitely give time for some Dozier at SS experimentation, but if Rosario is up by mid-season, some combo of 2B-LF, RF, and DH for the remainder of 2014 isn't going to hurt. And by the end of the season this might mean a Rosario-Buxton-Hicks OF. Willingham and Doumit have zero future for the Twins, so I see no reason bothering with them at all this year. Maybe the Plouffes and Parmelees don't have a future either, but this is a maybe . . . and in a rebuild, I will take maybes over definite no-future types. The Mauer-Buxton-Sano core needs its players around it. By season's end, I would expect a rotation of Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, and May. The Twins would end 2014 with five starting pitchers who have been top 100 prospects.

Kepler will be hopefully finishing up AA in 2015. So there is time to figure out Mauer and first base.

Gardenhire for 2014 is a mistake. For beyond. A greater mistake. He is a mistaken manager--to put it nicely.

I have to think it is 1. Steinbach, 2. Glynn. And the list stops there (they will not go with Dougie or Jake Mauer yet . . . those guys will get promoted up over the next few years to be in consideration down the road).

Why is Molitor still in consideration? He is a roving instructional coach right now. How is Terry Steinbach not the front-runner? I don't get this. He's the damn bench coach, privy to all the current discussions with the current manager.

There are only eight players born in 1991 who make my top 80 list, but the range is from a player in AA who could be a Twin at some point in 2014 and two guys who could return to rookie ball at the beginning of the season. 4. Eddie Rosario, 2B, RH, DOB: 9/28/91 2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 544 plate appearances, .302/.350/.460 (.810) (.867 career), 32 doubles, 8 triples, 10 homers, 38 walks, 96 strikeouts, 10 stolen bases, 10 times caught stealing. Rosario dominated the FSL and earned the promotion to New Britain. He held his own for the most part, but there was a significant drop in production for the converted second baseman. This is mostly due to a decrease in power numbers and a big uptick in his strikeout rate, so this is a fairly normal bout of growing pains. Defensively, Rosario is now comfortable and may even excel as a defensive second baseman. Of course this comes at a time when the Twins are actually currently short on outfielders and not on second baseman at the top of the system. Rosario should be headed back to start the year at New Britain before a mid-season promotion to Rochester. A September call-up is almost certainly bound to happen if he doesn't force the issue earlier. 39. Levi Michael, SS/2B, SH, DOB: 2/9/91 2013 A+: 375, .229/.331/.340 (.670) (.659), 15-4-4, 49-67, 21-2 Michael has now fallen from around the 20-25 range on my list to 39, and much of his continued presence in the top half of this list has to do with the hope that, when fully healthy, Michael can build upon minute improvements made so far and emerge as a legitimate prospect. His stolen base numbers were impressive this year, but not much else is, including his defense. Even though he hasn't really earned the promotion, the time has likely come to push Michael to New Britain to see if he can get on track. 35. Adrian Salcedo, RHP, DOB: 2/5/91 2013 A+: 58.1 innings, 3.70 ERA, 54 strikeouts, 15 walks (7.2/1.8 career) Salcedo will be 23 on opening day 2014 and he will likely be in New Britain. That isn't far off from the projection in 2009 and 2010 when Salcedo showed great promise. 2011 was a down year for the most part, and 2012 was a disaster with an injury. Salcedo was very effective in the bullpen in Fort Myers this year. The key question is whether or not the Twins view him as a starter or not. I honestly do not think so, and I believe he should be at the back end of the New Britain bullpen for 2014. Salcedo has appeared to right himself and this year is going to be huge for him. 13. Adam Walker, RF, RH, DOB: 10/18/91 2013 A-: 29. Mason Melotakis 66. Josh Burris 42. Ryan Eades 62. Stuart Turner

Before jumping into 1990's class, I have to add in a player born in 1988 who I mistakenly skipped over. 50. Lester Oliveros, RHR, DOB: 5/28/88 AAA, but 2013 GCL: 6.1 IP, 8 strikeouts, 3 walks. Oliveros is making his way back from injury but is still a promising reliever. He should be off to AAA to start 2014 with a chance to make it again with the Twins soon. Now, getting on with it. There are 13 players born in 1990 who make it on my top 80 Twins prospects list. 1990 (13): 16. Danny Santana, SS/2B, SH, DOB: 11/7/90 2013 AA: 587 plate appearances, .297/.333/.386 (.719) (.712 career), 22 doubles, 10 triples, 2 homers, 24 walks, 94 strikeouts, 30 stolen bases, 13 times caught stealing Santana is still mistake-prone at shortstop but the Twins seem set on keeping him there. He went through some natural growing pains in 2013, but had quite similar numbers to his 2012 season in Fort Myers. The power is not there, but the stolen base total is climbing. Santana should begin 2014 with Rosario and Beresford in the Rochester middle infield. 36. Daniel Ortiz, OF, LH, DOB: 1/5/90 2013 AA: 521, .258/.301/.405 (.706) (.725), 27-4-12, 27-88, 1-4 Ortiz has a tendency to start out seasons very well and then get progressively worse as the season goes on. A great April was followed by consistent decline every month, with a bad August to wrap up the season. Ortiz is very much like Santana, but with some more pop, less contact, and a lot less speed. He might be served best by starting out in New Britain again for 2014 and then work to earn a promotion to Rochester. It is hard, at this point, to imagine Ortiz as anything but a fourth OF, but it will be interesting to watch his power numbers going forward. 3. Alex Meyer, RHS, DOB: 1/3/90 2013 GLC/AA (AA statistics): 70.0 innings pitched, 3.21 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 (10.4/3.3 career) Meyer gave everyone a scare with an arm injury this year, but things are back on track and he is heading to the AFL to get some innings. Hopefully this will put him on a course for 150 or so innings next year. Meyer appears to be the real deal and it is exciting to see him now on the cusp of competing for a Twins rotation spot. Hopefully the Twins do not repeat the Kyle Gibson experience by not limiting Meyer's AAA innings early in the season. There is no reason that if Meyer dominates AAA that he shouldn't be called up to the Twins for 100 innings or so. 22. DJ Baxendale, RHS, DOB: 12/8/90 2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 150, 3.90, 112/33 (7.6/1.9) Baxendale was great for Fort Myers at the beginning of the season and a lot of people got very excited about his potential. This was tempered, somewhat, by his struggles at AA. He has good enough stuff to get his strikeout rate back to around his career level. Look for Baxendale to return to AA and hopefully push his way forward for a serious look in the AFL after next season. 19. Dalton Hicks, 1B, LH, DOB: 4/2/90 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 576, .289/.358/.468 (.826) (.824), 39-0-17, 56-123, 0-2 Hicks earned a promotion well into 2013 and did fairly well after the move. His 56 extra base hits are impressive and hopefully he can work on improving his BB/K rate with a return trip to Fort Myers to start 2014. I would expect Hicks to earn a promotion for the second year in a row at some point during the season. He is a solid all-around prospect who could soon make us forget about Chris Parmelee. 17. Kennys Vargas, 1B, SH, DOB: 8/2/90 2013 A+: 520, .267/.344/.468 (.813) (.861), 33-1-19, 50-105, 0-0 Vargas felt the effects of fatigue in his first season with more than 191 plate appearances. The power is there but dropped off considerably in the second half of the season. This is really not something to be too concerned about. Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario also left him for New Britain, so he lost some help in the lineup. He just turned 23, so the majority of his age-24 season will be in AA. 2014 might be telling for Vargas' future in the organization. 28. JD Williams, SH, LF/CF DOB: 11/20/90 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 486, .265/.372/.403 (.775) (.729), 17-6-9, 66-105, 26-13 Williams was looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2012 and he really did so in Cedar Rapids, posting an .852 OPS. His numbers really fell after his promotion to Fort Myers 2/3 of the way through the season. There is still quite a bit of promise and Williams is perhaps only second to Buxton in speed in the organization. Much of the drop at A+ came in slugging, so we will see if Williams can get that pop back and force a promotion about 2/3 of the way through 2014. 52. Jason Wheeler, LHS, DOB: 10/27/90 2013 A+: 143.1, 3.70, 91/58 (6.2/3.0) Wheeler walked more and struck out fewer in fewer innings at Fort Myers than his 2012 effort in Beloit. He has logged 300 innings in the past two seasons with a 3.57 ERA. I have to imagine he is heading back to Fort Myers to improve his K/BB rate in 2014. 72. Taylor Rogers, LHS, DOB: 12/17/90 2013 A-/A+ (A+ stats): 130.2, 2.55, 83/32 (7.4/2.3) 2013 was an impressive season for the lefty. His K rate fell dramatically but he really kept the ball in the ballpark, giving up only five homers in A+. It was a solid step forward for Rogers and some more time in Fort Myers could really help him develop further. 24. Tyler Duffey, RHS, DOB: 12/27/90 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 121, 3.64, 91/23 (7.6/1.6) Duffey was dominant for Cedar Rapids in the first half of the year. He went through a rough patch in Fort Myers, but that was to be expected. They moved him between the rotation and bullpen, but he still ended with a solid number of innings. He will start next season back in A+. 20. Zach Jones, RHR, DOB: 12/4/90 2013 A+: 48.2, 1.85, 70/28 (13.6/5.1) Jones is off to the AFL after a dominant performance out of the bullpen for Fort Myers. The strikeouts are huge. The walks are also huge, but that comes with the territory sometimes. Jones doesn't give up many hits at all so his WHIP remains low. Should be the closer for New Britain next year. 43. Corey Williams, LHR, DOB: 7/4/90 2013 A+/AA (A+ stats): 45.1, 5.16, 43/23 (9.3/4.7) Williams has stagnated on this list due to a subpar performance in 2013, though I am confident that he can make headway, even by being promoted to the AA bullpen at the beginning of 2014. The lefty had big trouble with the long ball this year, and when a pitcher also walks to many, it is a recipe for disaster. 2014 is an important year for Williams. 45. Luke Bard, RHR, DOB: 11/13/90 2013 GCL/ELZ/A+ (combined stats): 12.1, 3.65, 9/9 (7.4/7.4) Bard has been a disappointing injury case. Now, in 19.1 career innings, he has 16 strikeouts and 16 walks. He remains an interesting prospect but needs to remain healthy in 2014 or his stock will drop even more dramatically. There is the 1990 group. Careful observers will note the fact that J.T. Chargois is not listed. This isn't a mistake. He has thrown 16 professional innings and will be basically 24.5 years old by the time he even gets going again in the 2015 season. I am going to keep him off my list until he comes back.

I don't see the mystery. He has never been able to be successful immediately after any jump, though the move to AA was a bit different (I will grant that, but before that . . . ). Skipping over AAA altogether and then being put into the leadoff position? I have asked this elsewhere . . . I really want to know how many players in recent baseball history have ever skipped a level to get to MLB and then been the leadoff hitter immediately (and being the leadoff hitter requires pitch recognition!!!!!). People have made way too much out of this season. April was REALLY bad, but after that there was nothing shocking whatsoever given the circumstances.

I will be angry if Pinto, Colabello, Parmelee, and Hicks aren't playing for the Twins on opening day 2014. There is ZERO reason to manage an organization otherwise. The opening day lineup (and keeping in mind changes that are rational) is this: Brian Dozier, 2B Joe Mauer, C Oswaldo Arcia, RF Trevor Plouffe, 3B Aaron Hicks, CF Chris Parmelee, 1B Josmil Pinto, DH Chris Herrmann, LF Pedro Florimon, SS (Mastroianni and NOT Presley, hopefully, Escobar, Colabello, and somebody else will round out the 25-man roster.

I would like Willingham and Doumit gone in the offseason so they don't continue to clog up the roster. Neither one is going to be around in 2015. I would like to see them sign Johan on principle. I would be completely shocked if he is able to return. Ervin Santana, Tim Lincecum, and Phil Hughes are the three I would consider.

There are 20 players born in 1989 who make my end of 2013 Twins prospect list. I remember the very day that one of them was born, Michael Tonkin, because he was born on my ninth birthday and I remember it well. The 1989 bunch range from AAA/MLB players in Tonkin and Josmil Pinto down to current low-A pitchers, Tim Shibuya and Madison Boer. 1989 (20): 10. Josmil Pinto, C, RH, DOB: 3/31/89 2013 AA/AAA/MIN (AA/AAA stats): 528 plate appearances, .309/.400/.482 (.882) (.790 career), 32-1-15, 66 walks, 83 strikeouts, 0 steals, 2 times caught stealing. Pinto is now up with the Twins for the month of September after smashing his way throw AA and AAA. Pinto is a capable defender behind the plate and is a much-needed RH bat to play the position in the post-Butera era. Pinto's position with the team is going to depend on whether the Twins make the smart move and trade Ryan Doumit in the offseason. If they do, Pinto will join Chris Herrmann as Joe Mauer's support. I like what I see in Pinto as he has catapulted up this list after making his appearance on it around 50 at the end of 2011. 33. James Beresford, 2B/SS/3B, LH, DOB: 1/19/89 2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 403, .306/.363/.346 (.708) (.671), 12-1-0, 30/51, 10/2 Beresford is a good defender in the middle infield and has been consistent with the bat, especially since 2010. He possesses no power and will survive if he hits well, draws some walks, and is surrounded by guys with big bats like Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Kennys Vargas. It is not clear why he hasn't played SS much more this year because he is likely going to make it either as a utility infielder (third base should be no problem for him) or as a starting SS. Beresford should start the season next year at AAA and try to improve his slugging somewhat before replacing Eduardo Escobar or Pedro Florimon if he play merits it. 46. Logan Darnell, LHS , DOB: 2-2-89 2013 AA/AAA (combined stats), 153.2 innings pitched, 3.22 ERA, 120/45 (6.2/2.5 career rates) Darnell bounced back from a lackluster 2012 to pitch effectively. He has brought his strikeout rate up nicely in 2013 and could factor in as a lefty out of the bullpen if needed for the Twins. He will start with Rochester to begin the season. 18. Michael Tonkin, RHR, DOB: 11/19/89 2013 AA/AAA/MIN (AA/AAA stats), 57, 3.47, 66/16 (9.2/2.4) Tonkin had some very limited time with the Twins this year and is definitely the frontrunner to join the Twins 'pen out of the gate next year if the Twins don't bring Josh Roenicke back or if someone else falters or is injured. I would hope that the Twins try to trade off some relievers as soon as the market for them begins to sour in the offseason. Tonkin throws heat and could be an effective setup man. 59. Pat Dean, LHS, DOB: 5/25/89 2013 AA/AAA (combined stats), 165, 4.04, 83/22 (5.5/1.6) It is hard for me to imagine Dean being a major league starter. He will start in Rochester in 2014 and hopefully the K rate improves. Otherwise he is a less effective version of Andrew Albers. Now it is possible that he could regain some velocity and be a serviceable lefty out of the bullpen down the road. 58. Edgar Ibarra, LHR, DOB: 5/31/89 2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 60.2, 1.93 54/29 (7.8/3.9) Ibarra had split time as a reliever and starter up through 2011 and he was not very good. In 2012 he was not very good as a reliever, but in 2013 he emerged as quite effective, really limiting the number of hit off of him. But he continues to walk a lot of batters and his strikeout rate is declining. This coming season he could rise in the Rochester bullpen as the left-handed setup man. I put him one spot ahead of Dean because Dean could potentially be Edgar Ibarra 2.0 will a similar move to the bullpen. 70. Deolis Guerra, RHR, DOB: 4-17-89 AAA, but 2013 GCL: 4, 4.50, 3/1 (6.8/3.3) Guerra will still be 24 on opening day 2014. It is hard not to think of his as closer to 30 than 20, but he has simply been around forever since very young. His only hope is as a middle reliever in the future, but he might be a very effective one. If he remains in the Twins organization, he will be in Rochester. 63. Angel Morales, OF, RH, DOB: 11/24/89 2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 418, .239/.304/.427 (.731) (.761), 23-5-12, 32/127, 8/7 When Morales lost most of the 2011 season, one might have thought that it was just one lost season and that it was no big deal in the long run. But it wasn't until 2013 that Morales finally showed mastery of A+ ball. Once a part of a dynamic quartet of Twins OF prospects (with Revere, Benson, and Hicks . . . wow), Morales is now struggling to stay in the system. His AA performance was shockingly bad. That he was still able to ascend a level leads me to believe that the Twins should still not give up on him and hope that another year of AA baseball will help him, but he certainly cannot remain on the same timetable. 51. Dan Rohlfing, C/corner OF, RH, DOB: 2/12/89 2013 AA/AAA (combined stats): 432, .267/.352/.341 (.693) (.650), 15-2-3, 48-96, 0-1 Rohlfing is following the Chris Herrmann route in demonstrating positional versatility while being a primary catcher. This likely is his one path to the majors. He is still young and showed a bit of promise in Rochester and should hopefully start 2014 there with Knudson. 8. Trevor May, RHS, DOB: 9-23-89 2013 AA: 151.2, 4.51, 159/67 (10.7/4.6) May is going to the Arizona Fall League to get more innings and build off a season of incremental improvement in his second year in the Eastern League. The ERA is still high as he cannot get his WHIP under control. That said, he did strike out a few more and walk a few less. Really, the Twins should be happy with this performance because at the least it looks like May will be consistent and maybe be able to provide some low-4.00 ERAs with some improvement. Getting a 4th starter out of the Revere deal is good, even if it took a bit to get there. I have to think that May starts 2014 in AAA and is going to be due for a 2014 arrival with the Twins at some point around mid-season. 37. Nate Roberts, LF/RF, LH, DOB: 2/25/89 2013 A+ 5 .250/.400/.500 (.900) (.897), 1-0-0, 0-0, 0-0 Roberts played in one game in 2013 and he maintained his crazy HBP standard by getting plunked. This injury business is killing his career and hopefully he can have a healthy 2014. The Twins really just need to move him to AA and hope he is healthy--there is no point for him to play at lower levels at this point. There is significant potential here and it is a shame that it is going to waste. 34. Matthew Summers, RHS, DOB: 8/17/89 2013 AA/A+ (combined stats): 142.2, 3.09, 100/46 (6.7/3.2) 2013 was a season of solid improvement for Summers. He is inching his K rate up and lowered his walk rate. He is keeping the hits down both in number and literally--he gave up only three homers all year. If that stat is not a fluke than his future is promising as he climbs the ladder. 2014 should see him start in New Britain. 55. Nelvin Fuentes, LHR, DOB: 4/7/89 2013 AA/A+ (combined stats): 51.1, 4.03, 58/17 (10.1/2.8) Fuentes can really strike guys out and in 2013 he started to limit hits given up at a more acceptable rate for A+ ball. He's a talented lefty who should get a second shot at starting in AA next season and hopefully he continues to progress. 61. Steven Gruver, LHR, DOB: 6-30-89 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 79, 2.85, 76/29 (7.0/2.7) Gruver has moved to full-time relieving duties. He did not pitch very well in a small amount of A+ time in 2013, so he will be headed back there for 2014. He's one of a ton of left-handed middle relievers in the organization, so he is going to have to distinguish himself. 80. Lance Ray, LF/RF/1B, LH, DOB: 9-2-89 2013 GCL/A+ (combined stats): 127, .207/.299/.279 (.578) (.743), 5-0-1, 14-26, 2-1 After taking a lateral step with his promotion in 2012 to Fort Myers, Ray took a step back with injury and poor performance in 2013. He is going to have to bounce back and improve even on his 2012 A+ time in order to be relevant in the organization going forward (and I was once very high on him). 38. Tyler Jones, RHR, DOB: 9/5/89 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 52.1, 2.58, 66/20 (10.8/3.5) Jones improved on his 2012 numbers and could be a real force to be reckoned with out of the bullpen. He got hit a little in the FSL, but his stuff is very impressive. Should be a bi-level player again next year and be tapping at the Twins door in 2015 if all goes well. 71. David Hurlbut, LHP, DOB: 11/24/89 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 70.1, 2.82, 64/13 (7.3/1.8) Hurlbut did start some this year, but he is more effective as a reliever and his K rate is only really acceptable as a reliever for right now. Given his, he has to get in line behind a lot of middle relief types in this organization. 78. Manuel Soliman, RHP, DOB: 8/11/89 2013 A-/A+ (combined stats): 80, 5.40, 63/50 (8.0/3.7) Soliman just turned 24, so not all is lost. The Twins used him primarily as a starter in Fort Myers, but there is no way that this will continue. Hopefully he can get under control, get his K rate back up, and prove to be an effective reliever. 77. Tim Shibuya, RHP, DOB: 9/14/89 2013 ELZ/A- (combined stats): 57, 1.42, 38/8 (7.2/1.5) Shibuya's 2012 was a mess after a promising 2011 season. He was successful at Cedar Rapids this year, but he should be successful there at his age. The strikeouts aren't coming anymore. He has great control and keeps the hits low. He will be tested next year in Fort Myers. 69. Madison Boer, RHP, DOB: 11/9/89 2013 GCL/A-/A+ (combined stats): 40.1, 5.13, 33/15 (7.1/2.6) Boer's health is a concern and his performance has been very underwhelming the past two years. He will start 2014 in Fort Myers again, and should probably be relegated to the bullpen. There are the 20 players born in 1989 cracking my top 80 Twins prospects list. Two of them (May and Pinto) made the top 10 and Lance Ray rounds out the list at number 80. The next installment features players born in 1990.

As the minor league seasons wind down and the trading period is over for the season, I have established my new Twins prospect list heading into the offseason. While I will post the full list at the end of this series, I decided to take a different approach and list the players not in rank order, but in year of birth order. Within each calendar year I then order players by level in the system, not by actual birthdate. The period goes from 1986 to 1996, which was an interesting fact alone. Organizing the system in this way actually helped me construct a better rank order anyway, so without further ado: 1986 (1): 40. Deibinson Romero, 3B/1B, RH, DOB: 9/24/86 2013 AA/AAA (stats from AAA): 358 plate appearances, .266/.369/.421 (.790) (.759 career), 15 doubles, 1 triple, 10 homers, 47 walks, 75 strikeouts, 4 steals and 0 times caught stealing. Romero is an adequate defensive third baseman and has also played first. His future looked very bright about fours ago but then the Twins soured on him and he has been a slow-mover in the system. That said, the Twins ought to be feeling tired with Trevor Plouffe, and especially with Trevor Plouffe at third base. Furthermore, if Wilkin Ramirez and Chris Colabello don't prove to be good enough RH bats off the bench, Ramirez would deserve a look. Finally, if Miguel Sano is not ready at the beginning of 2014, Romero could be the fill-in if the Twins either move Plouffe via trade or via position change. 1987 (3): 32. Dakota Watts, RHR, DOB: 11/16/87 2013 A+/AA (AA stats): 35.1 innings, 0.76 ERA, 29 k/10 bb (8.2/4.6 k/bb career) Watts has struggled with inconsistency and injuries in his career, but is currently lights out in the Eastern League. He could challenge for a bullpen spot in ST next year or he will certainly be the setup man or closer for Rochester when the season starts. I hope for the Twins to give him a chance by trading away Jared Burton and Casey Fien. 65. Kyle Knudson, C, RH, DOB: 9-12-87 2013 A+/AA (combined stats): 200, .273/.355/.352 (.707) (.660), 8-0-2, 18-31, 0-1 Knudson is a good catcher with decent offensive capabilities. If the Twins finally part with Danny Lehmann and also opt not to bring Eric Fryer back (both wise moves) next year, Knudson should join Danny Rohlfing in Rochester next year and be the next guy in line after Mauer, Doumit, Herrmann, and Pinto. Given that Mauer is likely going to see a steady decline at the plate, Doumit should be traded, and the latter two aren't established, Knudson might see some time in the big leagues in 2014 or 2015. 73. Evan Bigley, RF/LF, RH, DOB: 3/9/87 2013 all over the place, ending with New Britain (AA stats): 201, .216/.264/.308 (.572) (.727), 9-1-2, 11/56, 0/1 Bigley was injured this year after doing well in 2012 in AA. He could have been a contender for a Twins roster spot this year given the outfield calamity of 2013 for this organization. And now the Twins have added Alex Presley into the mix for no good reason. To me it seems that Bigley might be best served by signing with another organization in the offseason because the Twins continue to fill-in with older AAAA types. 1988 (6): 26. A.J. Achter, RHR, DOB: 8/27/88 2013: AA/AAA (combined stats): 59.1, 2.58, 56/33 (9.6/3.2) Achter is off to the Arizona Fall League and is surely the reliever next in line to get a gig with the Twins after Michael Tonkin and before Watts. Achter is a very solid pitcher with a good fastball and is another reason why trading Burton and Fien is ideal. 41. Matt Hauser, RHR, DOB: 3/30/88 2013 A+/AA (AA stats): 39.0, 6.00, 35/12 (8.4/3.8) Hauser has a solid start to his AA campaign but then had several terrible outings. I was looking for him to emerge as the next setup type for the Twins, but it would appear that this project is on hold for another year. 67. Ryan O'Rourke, LHR, DOB: 4/30/88 2013: A+/AA (combined stats): 44, 3.27, 39/15 (8.5/2.5) O'Rourke is a lefty and he doesn't walk all that many guys. This is going to be useful for him, but he has to continue to strike batters out. He may not be spectacular, but no one really thought of Caleb Thielbar as spectacular either. 54. Cole Johnson, RHR, DOB: 10/6/88 2013: A+/AA (combined stats): 59, 3.20, 65/20 (9.7/2.6) Johnson could shoot up the list quickly if he can maintain this strikeout rate. I imagine he will start at AA next year, but could be quick to ascend if anyone at AAA or with the Twins falters (and someone likely will). 49. Alex Wimmers, RHS, DOB: 11/1/88 (AA), but 2013 GCL stats: 15, 7.20, 18/15 (9.8/4.2) Any stats don't matter at all as long as Wimmers has a 2014 with at least several dozen innings pitched with effectiveness. Seven dozen innings would be more than his current career innings total. Any more significant setbacks and Wimmers' career is in total jeopardy. Hopefully he rises on this list by midseason 2014. 60. Matthew Koch, C, RH, DOB: 11/21/88 2013 A+: 393, .278/.346/.401 (.749) (.768), 20-1-7, 35/75, 1/1 Koch has a solid bat and I was surprised that the Twins didn't promote him in the second half of the season this year. If he starts the season well at New Britain next year, this could lead to a jump on this list. There you have it, the Twins prospects from 1986-1988 years of birth. The prospects range from Achter at no. 26 to Bigley at no. 73. My next entry with focus exclusively on the 20 Twins prospects born in 1989.

My plan for the 2014 Twins is to be drunk until Sano, Rosario, and Buxton arrive. I'll let you judge which is the better plan.

There is plenty of real room on that 40-man roster.

Wow, great article. I think the move might have saved Grimes' chances to climb the ladder.

Given that A- to A+ and A+ to AA are the biggest jumps, I would always like to get players' feet wet in the season before they start there. Always.

With regard to Polanco, I am fine with this until the last 3-4 weeks of the season. I would then promote him to Fort Myers to give him a taste of it before next season begins. Same for Goodrum.

It will happen very soon. There are some logistical issues with E-Town just starting and whatnot. I don't think Buxton is the only move from CR. (Hicks, Walker, and Williams).

Yes, I am going to do this for pitchers, though I really only see Burton and Duensing as viable trade-bait. Given that there are no great or good starters to be dealt this year league-wide, MAYBE I will include Correia. DAM DC Twins Fans: well, I could go lower on these lists, if possible. The problem is that there seems to be basically zero Seth Stohs-esque writers for most teams. Prospect lists MIGHT go to 30, but I have had a hard time digging there. Anyway, given that Liriano was traded for TWO of this level type player, I don't think it is that crazy to make a claim for legitimate trade value here. These guys are NOT top prospects in the strictest sense of the term and teams are going to be willing to add major leaguers to fill holes. Plouffe to the Pirates, for instance, makes a bunch of sense. They need some more pop. Etc. etc.