Shane Wahl

Let's hope he doesn't have to be a key anything. He is replacement level and always will be. I am still surprised by his place on the roster.

It is time to return to an analysis of the farm system in terms of how prospects by position are moving up, moving down, appearing, disappearing, or reappearing on this year's list. This is an attempt to gauge the overall status of the system from year to year and entails, indirectly, an analysis of the 2012 draft, but also the development of players still in the system and the emergence of talent up into the big leagues. I used the 2012 compilation list from myself, Seth Stohs, and Twinkie Town. For 2013, I stuck with my list, in part because both of the other lists, as well as Gleeman's list, are pretty similar to mine anyway. In fact they tend to exactly embellish--perhaps appropriately--the main conclusion of this analysis anyway. In sum, the results are not that dramatic. By position, a simple way to view the prospect list movement between 2012 and 2013 is as follows: OF: even C: even 1B: even 2B: even (lower number resulting from Dozier moving to the Twins) 3B: slightly downward (this with Sano and Harrison still candidates) SS: slightly upward RHS: upward RHR: upward LHS: downward LHR: even This projects to be an overall improvement in the system, and I have been conservative in the impact, to some degree, in three areas: 1) right-handed pitching may be vastly improved as only 2013 can tell, 2) Danny Santana and Niko Goodrum both staying at SS could be huge, 3) Sano *or* Harrison staying at third creates much more balance. Methodology: I analyzed the list by tiers: top 5, 15, 25, 35, and 50 and then counted the number of prospects at each tier by position. Right-handed starters has supplanted outfielders as appearing the most on the list in the top 50, though outfielders are still very well represented. RHS also appear most in the top 35 and top 25 as well. This might not be so surprising given the last two drafts, but keep in mind that people like Manuel Soliman, Adrian Salcedo, and Alex Wimmers have plummeted in the meantime. The system stagnated a bit at catcher, first base, and second base. Herrmann and Pinto are the only clear prospects at the catcher position, Dalton Hicks needs to establish himself this year to be a full-fledged prospect and Chris Colabello is aging, and finally, only Eddie Rosario makes the second base spot bright. The big problem spots are in left-handed pitching (especially starters), 3B (really a big problem if neither Sano nor Harrison stay there), and catching (especially if neither Matt Koch nor Danny Rohlfing develop quickly). There will be a mid-season update on the system as the 2013 year plays out and how the June draft affects everything.

It is time to return to an analysis of the farm system in terms of how prospects by position are moving up, moving down, appearing, disappearing, or reappearing on this year's list. This is an attempt to gauge the overall status of the system from year to year and entails, indirectly, an analysis of the 2012 draft, but also the development of players still in the system and the emergence of talent up into the big leagues. I used the 2012 compilation list from myself, Seth Stohs, and Twinkie Town. For 2013, I stuck with my list, in part because both of the other lists, as well as Gleeman's list, are pretty similar to mine anyway. In fact they tend to exactly embellish--perhaps appropriately--the main conclusion of this analysis anyway. In sum, the results are not that dramatic. By position, a simple way to view the prospect list movement between 2012 and 2013 is as follows: OF: even C: even 1B: even 2B: even (lower number resulting from Dozier moving to the Twins) 3B: slightly downward (this with Sano and Harrison still candidates) SS: slightly upward RHS: upward RHR: upward LHS: downward LHR: even This projects to be an overall improvement in the system, and I have been conservative in the impact, to some degree, in three areas: 1) right-handed pitching may be vastly improved as only 2013 can tell, 2) Danny Santana and Niko Goodrum both staying at SS could be huge, 3) Sano *or* Harrison staying at third creates much more balance. Methodology: I analyzed the list by tiers: top 5, 15, 25, 35, and 50 and then counted the number of prospects at each tier by position. Right-handed starters has supplanted outfielders as appearing the most on the list in the top 50, though outfielders are still very well represented. RHS also appear most in the top 35 and top 25 as well. This might not be so surprising given the last two drafts, but keep in mind that people like Manuel Soliman, Adrian Salcedo, and Alex Wimmers have plummeted in the meantime. The system stagnated a bit at catcher, first base, and second base. Herrmann and Pinto are the only clear prospects at the catcher position, Dalton Hicks needs to establish himself this year to be a full-fledged prospect and Chris Colabello is aging, and finally, only Eddie Rosario makes the second base spot bright. The big problem spots are in left-handed pitching (especially starters), 3B (really a big problem if neither Sano nor Harrison stay there), and catching (especially if neither Matt Koch nor Danny Rohlfing develop quickly). There will be a mid-season update on the system as the 2013 year plays out and how the June draft affects everything.

Someone can check on this, but when the Twins were rollin' on dubs last year for awhile (and it was brief, but not terribly brief) was when they FINALLY did have two legitimate OBP people in front of Mauer. Span and Revere at the time were somewhere around .350 OBP and during that stretch they might have been .370 or so. That worked. That's basically the one time in the Mauer era where such a thing has occurred.

I don't think bringing Escobar in to play short was the problem. The problem was not pinch hitting for him with Carroll when he came up. I just assumed that this was what Gardy was thinking. He pinch hits for Florimon because he has two infielders, one for defense and one to come in to pinch hit (because Escobar is also a mess at the plate). BUT NO. NOPE.

It is strange. I would bet that there would a 5 run difference in the first inning *alone*.

Um, those projections of batters 2-7 seem pretty low.

Can't argue with any of this!

Roenicke instead of Slama, Mastro instead of Boggs (oversight), and Ramirez decision made. Looks good to me.

There are just a bunch of things wrong here. Sorry. Duensing is not going to be starting, you spelled Deduno wrong, Walters is a last resort this year, and Perez is not going to be remotely adequate at all even in AAA.

That was a late-night oversight! You are right. An alternative would be to keep Hicks down for a month and platoon Boggs and Mastro.

Here it goes: Hicks, CF Mauer, C Willingham, LF Morneau, 1B Doumit, DH Plouffe, 3B Parmelee, RF Dozier, 2B Florimon, SS Bench: Carroll, Escobar, Boggs, Ramirez/Colabello Note: I don't care about Dozier and Florimon at the bottom (Carroll will fill in), I like a Hicks-Mauer-Willingham first inning a great deal. Worley Pelfrey Hendriks Correia DeVries (Diamond DL) Pressley Slama Robertson Fien Duensing Burton Perkins (Swarzak DL, Guerra DL) I like this rotation with Diamond sliding in for DeVries, but with DeVries and Deduno knocking at the door. I like this bullpen with Watts, Pugh, Albers, and eventually Oliveros and Guerra waiting.

Here it goes: Hicks, CF Mauer, C Willingham, LF Morneau, 1B Doumit, DH Plouffe, 3B Parmelee, RF Dozier, 2B Florimon, SS Bench: Carroll, Escobar, Boggs, Ramirez/Colabello Note: I don't care about Dozier and Florimon at the bottom (Carroll will fill in), I like a Hicks-Mauer-Willingham first inning a great deal. Worley Pelfrey Hendriks Correia DeVries (Diamond DL) Pressley Slama Robertson Fien Duensing Burton Perkins (Swarzak DL, Guerra DL) I like this rotation with Diamond sliding in for DeVries, but with DeVries and Deduno knocking at the door. I like this bullpen with Watts, Pugh, Albers, and eventually Oliveros and Guerra waiting.

This concludes my 1-60 prospect list in depth. I hope it is helpful for everyone to get a grasp of the depth of the system and to help in formulating one's own top 20 or 30 prospects lists. Note: yes, neither Randy Rosario nor Anthony Slama appear in this top 60, and for entirely different reasons. Rosario needs to have a good 2013, and Slama appears to be done in the system, or it doesn't even matter to include him anywhere. Also, note: I am going to analyze the prospect movement trends from 2012 to 2013 in an upcoming blog. It will not be as cumbersome as the 2011 to 2012 version. I think it will be fairly illuminating, so stay tuned. 5. Alex Meyer (DOB: 1-3-90), RH starter: Meyer was the return that the Nationals sent over for Denard Span. Meyer is 6’ 9” and throws in the mid-upper 90s with a fantastic slider. He was the 23rd overall pick in the 2011 draft. He pitched 129 innings last year between low and high-A ball. After the promotion, he compiled a 2.31 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks in 39 innings. His H/9 dropped minimally, but his walk rate dropped by a quarter, so that might make up for his K/9 drop in the move. Meyer is ranked as the 59th best prospect by Baseball America and 40th by MLB.com (after it ranked him 83rd going in to last season). Meyer was a beast in high school and the Red Sox drafted him in the 20th round in 2008, but he opted to go to Kentucky which increased his stock immensely. Meyer and Gibson really could give the 1-2 punch the Twins need going forward, but Meyer is going to take a bit of time still. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015. 4. Byron Buxton (DOB: 12-18-93), RH center fielder: The Twins took Buxton with the second pick in the 2012 draft because his tools are off the charts (speed, arm, defense) or great (average, power). He performed well in the Gulf Coast League even though he struck out a lot and did not hit for average. The key was that he found his power against some fresh-out-of-high-school pitching. He was promoted to Elizabethon and actually improved. The slugging dropped, but his average and OBP climbed and he ended with a combined .792 OPS in his first season of pro baseball as an 18-year-old. My placement at the fourth spot on this list is almost certainly as low as he is on any Twins prospect list. This is simply due to the three ahead of him and the fact that I want to see more plate appearances from Buxton. When Sano was signed, I thought of him in the 3rd spot back then. The Twins are going to be patient from here on out with him, but they very smartly broke character and are moving him up from the very low levels to the middle quickly. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: September 2015-September 2016. 3. Oswaldo Arcia (DOB: 5-9-91), LH right fielder: Arcia is another player who the Twins have been smart about in pushing him through the system. He went ballistic in 2010 in Elizabethon, posting a 1.096 OPS. He followed that up with a combined .866 OPS in 2011 where he faced high-A pitching for almost ¾ of the season. In 2012, Arcia started out much better in Fort Myers than where he ended it in 2011 and had a great second half with New Britain. There he had a .328/.398/.557 (.955) slash with 20 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Those numbers are obviously excellent and he should, in my view, serve as a example for how certain high prospects should be treated by the Twins. That is, players should be promoted in season instead of playing a whole season at one stop. This way players may be a bit over their heads like Arcia was in 2011 in Fort Myers, but they get the taste of the level and can dominate like Arcia did the next year. Arcia is comparable to Jason Kubel pre-injury, so that means that would project him out to be an actual outfielder with an impressive bat who can turn some singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Expected start: short time in New Britain first. ETA: September 2013-2014. 2. Aaron Hicks (DOB: 10-2-89), SH center field: People started to scoff at my pre-2012 ranking of Hicks as my number two prospect. That’s fine, and certainly he would have dropped if he would not have been so good in 2012. His .844 OPS comes with MLB-ready defense in center field. That is something remarkable in itself, but both his power numbers and his stolen bases went up significantly in 2012. Hicks strikes out a lot, but he also walks a lot and that is something that isn’t going to go away since plate discipline doesn’t just disappear. It’s an advanced skill and that is one big reason (coupled with the defense) that made it impossible for me to move Hicks down the prospect list for the past three seasons. Hicks has been up and down, and some of that I blame on the Twins organization, but there is consistent improvement along the way. His bat is not fully ready, but with the trading of Span and Revere, the door was opened for Hicks to step in. And after all has been said and done, I think he will step in right out of the gates in 2013. Expected start: Minnesota. ETA: 2013, even if he doesn’t start out the season with the Twins. 1. Miguel Sano (DOB: 5-11-93), RH third baseman: Sano has more than lived up to expectations heaped upon him as he made his move into professional baseball after a hellacious bunch of scrutiny coming out of the Dominican Republic. He has moved up national prospect lists at a consistent pace to where he is ranked 9th by Baseball America and 12th by MLB.com. The absolute power is there and the amount of walks he drew in 2012 was a major improvement over 2012. As he moves up, the walks might drop but that may mean he gets more pitches to annihilate, so I don’t anticipate any real drop in power numbers even while moving in the Florida State League. The question is going to be eventually about where he will end up playing defensively, but it is certainly the case that third base is his position for 2013. If he can improve there, it is a huge gain for the Twins. If he has to move elsewhere, it hardly matters. His arm is spectacular, but first base may end up being his position. He certainly is growing into the position and might be 6’ 6”, 260 when all is said and done. Think a slightly smaller Frank Thomas and you get the idea. And Sano is still very young with immense talent. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: September 2014, or June 2015.

This concludes my 1-60 prospect list in depth. I hope it is helpful for everyone to get a grasp of the depth of the system and to help in formulating one's own top 20 or 30 prospects lists. Note: yes, neither Randy Rosario nor Anthony Slama appear in this top 60, and for entirely different reasons. Rosario needs to have a good 2013, and Slama appears to be done in the system, or it doesn't even matter to include him anywhere. Also, note: I am going to analyze the prospect movement trends from 2012 to 2013 in an upcoming blog. It will not be as cumbersome as the 2011 to 2012 version. I think it will be fairly illuminating, so stay tuned. 5. Alex Meyer (DOB: 1-3-90), RH starter: Meyer was the return that the Nationals sent over for Denard Span. Meyer is 6’ 9” and throws in the mid-upper 90s with a fantastic slider. He was the 23rd overall pick in the 2011 draft. He pitched 129 innings last year between low and high-A ball. After the promotion, he compiled a 2.31 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks in 39 innings. His H/9 dropped minimally, but his walk rate dropped by a quarter, so that might make up for his K/9 drop in the move. Meyer is ranked as the 59th best prospect by Baseball America and 40th by MLB.com (after it ranked him 83rd going in to last season). Meyer was a beast in high school and the Red Sox drafted him in the 20th round in 2008, but he opted to go to Kentucky which increased his stock immensely. Meyer and Gibson really could give the 1-2 punch the Twins need going forward, but Meyer is going to take a bit of time still. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015. 4. Byron Buxton (DOB: 12-18-93), RH center fielder: The Twins took Buxton with the second pick in the 2012 draft because his tools are off the charts (speed, arm, defense) or great (average, power). He performed well in the Gulf Coast League even though he struck out a lot and did not hit for average. The key was that he found his power against some fresh-out-of-high-school pitching. He was promoted to Elizabethon and actually improved. The slugging dropped, but his average and OBP climbed and he ended with a combined .792 OPS in his first season of pro baseball as an 18-year-old. My placement at the fourth spot on this list is almost certainly as low as he is on any Twins prospect list. This is simply due to the three ahead of him and the fact that I want to see more plate appearances from Buxton. When Sano was signed, I thought of him in the 3rd spot back then. The Twins are going to be patient from here on out with him, but they very smartly broke character and are moving him up from the very low levels to the middle quickly. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: September 2015-September 2016. 3. Oswaldo Arcia (DOB: 5-9-91), LH right fielder: Arcia is another player who the Twins have been smart about in pushing him through the system. He went ballistic in 2010 in Elizabethon, posting a 1.096 OPS. He followed that up with a combined .866 OPS in 2011 where he faced high-A pitching for almost ¾ of the season. In 2012, Arcia started out much better in Fort Myers than where he ended it in 2011 and had a great second half with New Britain. There he had a .328/.398/.557 (.955) slash with 20 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Those numbers are obviously excellent and he should, in my view, serve as a example for how certain high prospects should be treated by the Twins. That is, players should be promoted in season instead of playing a whole season at one stop. This way players may be a bit over their heads like Arcia was in 2011 in Fort Myers, but they get the taste of the level and can dominate like Arcia did the next year. Arcia is comparable to Jason Kubel pre-injury, so that means that would project him out to be an actual outfielder with an impressive bat who can turn some singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Expected start: short time in New Britain first. ETA: September 2013-2014. 2. Aaron Hicks (DOB: 10-2-89), SH center field: People started to scoff at my pre-2012 ranking of Hicks as my number two prospect. That’s fine, and certainly he would have dropped if he would not have been so good in 2012. His .844 OPS comes with MLB-ready defense in center field. That is something remarkable in itself, but both his power numbers and his stolen bases went up significantly in 2012. Hicks strikes out a lot, but he also walks a lot and that is something that isn’t going to go away since plate discipline doesn’t just disappear. It’s an advanced skill and that is one big reason (coupled with the defense) that made it impossible for me to move Hicks down the prospect list for the past three seasons. Hicks has been up and down, and some of that I blame on the Twins organization, but there is consistent improvement along the way. His bat is not fully ready, but with the trading of Span and Revere, the door was opened for Hicks to step in. And after all has been said and done, I think he will step in right out of the gates in 2013. Expected start: Minnesota. ETA: 2013, even if he doesn’t start out the season with the Twins. 1. Miguel Sano (DOB: 5-11-93), RH third baseman: Sano has more than lived up to expectations heaped upon him as he made his move into professional baseball after a hellacious bunch of scrutiny coming out of the Dominican Republic. He has moved up national prospect lists at a consistent pace to where he is ranked 9th by Baseball America and 12th by MLB.com. The absolute power is there and the amount of walks he drew in 2012 was a major improvement over 2012. As he moves up, the walks might drop but that may mean he gets more pitches to annihilate, so I don’t anticipate any real drop in power numbers even while moving in the Florida State League. The question is going to be eventually about where he will end up playing defensively, but it is certainly the case that third base is his position for 2013. If he can improve there, it is a huge gain for the Twins. If he has to move elsewhere, it hardly matters. His arm is spectacular, but first base may end up being his position. He certainly is growing into the position and might be 6’ 6”, 260 when all is said and done. Think a slightly smaller Frank Thomas and you get the idea. And Sano is still very young with immense talent. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: September 2014, or June 2015.

This concludes my 1-60 prospect list in depth. I hope it is helpful for everyone to get a grasp of the depth of the system and to help in formulating one's own top 20 or 30 prospects lists. Note: yes, neither Randy Rosario nor Anthony Slama appear in this top 60, and for entirely different reasons. Rosario needs to have a good 2013, and Slama appears to be done in the system, or it doesn't even matter to include him anywhere. Also, note: I am going to analyze the prospect movement trends from 2012 to 2013 in an upcoming blog. It will not be as cumbersome as the 2011 to 2012 version. I think it will be fairly illuminating, so stay tuned. 5. Alex Meyer (DOB: 1-3-90), RH starter: Meyer was the return that the Nationals sent over for Denard Span. Meyer is 6’ 9” and throws in the mid-upper 90s with a fantastic slider. He was the 23rd overall pick in the 2011 draft. He pitched 129 innings last year between low and high-A ball. After the promotion, he compiled a 2.31 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks in 39 innings. His H/9 dropped minimally, but his walk rate dropped by a quarter, so that might make up for his K/9 drop in the move. Meyer is ranked as the 59th best prospect by Baseball America and 40th by MLB.com (after it ranked him 83rd going in to last season). Meyer was a beast in high school and the Red Sox drafted him in the 20th round in 2008, but he opted to go to Kentucky which increased his stock immensely. Meyer and Gibson really could give the 1-2 punch the Twins need going forward, but Meyer is going to take a bit of time still. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015. 4. Byron Buxton (DOB: 12-18-93), RH center fielder: The Twins took Buxton with the second pick in the 2012 draft because his tools are off the charts (speed, arm, defense) or great (average, power). He performed well in the Gulf Coast League even though he struck out a lot and did not hit for average. The key was that he found his power against some fresh-out-of-high-school pitching. He was promoted to Elizabethon and actually improved. The slugging dropped, but his average and OBP climbed and he ended with a combined .792 OPS in his first season of pro baseball as an 18-year-old. My placement at the fourth spot on this list is almost certainly as low as he is on any Twins prospect list. This is simply due to the three ahead of him and the fact that I want to see more plate appearances from Buxton. When Sano was signed, I thought of him in the 3rd spot back then. The Twins are going to be patient from here on out with him, but they very smartly broke character and are moving him up from the very low levels to the middle quickly. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: September 2015-September 2016. 3. Oswaldo Arcia (DOB: 5-9-91), LH right fielder: Arcia is another player who the Twins have been smart about in pushing him through the system. He went ballistic in 2010 in Elizabethon, posting a 1.096 OPS. He followed that up with a combined .866 OPS in 2011 where he faced high-A pitching for almost ¾ of the season. In 2012, Arcia started out much better in Fort Myers than where he ended it in 2011 and had a great second half with New Britain. There he had a .328/.398/.557 (.955) slash with 20 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Those numbers are obviously excellent and he should, in my view, serve as a example for how certain high prospects should be treated by the Twins. That is, players should be promoted in season instead of playing a whole season at one stop. This way players may be a bit over their heads like Arcia was in 2011 in Fort Myers, but they get the taste of the level and can dominate like Arcia did the next year. Arcia is comparable to Jason Kubel pre-injury, so that means that would project him out to be an actual outfielder with an impressive bat who can turn some singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Expected start: short time in New Britain first. ETA: September 2013-2014. 2. Aaron Hicks (DOB: 10-2-89), SH center field: People started to scoff at my pre-2012 ranking of Hicks as my number two prospect. That’s fine, and certainly he would have dropped if he would not have been so good in 2012. His .844 OPS comes with MLB-ready defense in center field. That is something remarkable in itself, but both his power numbers and his stolen bases went up significantly in 2012. Hicks strikes out a lot, but he also walks a lot and that is something that isn’t going to go away since plate discipline doesn’t just disappear. It’s an advanced skill and that is one big reason (coupled with the defense) that made it impossible for me to move Hicks down the prospect list for the past three seasons. Hicks has been up and down, and some of that I blame on the Twins organization, but there is consistent improvement along the way. His bat is not fully ready, but with the trading of Span and Revere, the door was opened for Hicks to step in. And after all has been said and done, I think he will step in right out of the gates in 2013. Expected start: Minnesota. ETA: 2013, even if he doesn’t start out the season with the Twins. 1. Miguel Sano (DOB: 5-11-93), RH third baseman: Sano has more than lived up to expectations heaped upon him as he made his move into professional baseball after a hellacious bunch of scrutiny coming out of the Dominican Republic. He has moved up national prospect lists at a consistent pace to where he is ranked 9th by Baseball America and 12th by MLB.com. The absolute power is there and the amount of walks he drew in 2012 was a major improvement over 2012. As he moves up, the walks might drop but that may mean he gets more pitches to annihilate, so I don’t anticipate any real drop in power numbers even while moving in the Florida State League. The question is going to be eventually about where he will end up playing defensively, but it is certainly the case that third base is his position for 2013. If he can improve there, it is a huge gain for the Twins. If he has to move elsewhere, it hardly matters. His arm is spectacular, but first base may end up being his position. He certainly is growing into the position and might be 6’ 6”, 260 when all is said and done. Think a slightly smaller Frank Thomas and you get the idea. And Sano is still very young with immense talent. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: September 2014, or June 2015.

This concludes my 1-60 prospect list in depth. I hope it is helpful for everyone to get a grasp of the depth of the system and to help in formulating one's own top 20 or 30 prospects lists. Note: yes, neither Randy Rosario nor Anthony Slama appear in this top 60, and for entirely different reasons. Rosario needs to have a good 2013, and Slama appears to be done in the system, or it doesn't even matter to include him anywhere. Also, note: I am going to analyze the prospect movement trends from 2012 to 2013 in an upcoming blog. It will not be as cumbersome as the 2011 to 2012 version. I think it will be fairly illuminating, so stay tuned. 5. Alex Meyer (DOB: 1-3-90), RH starter: Meyer was the return that the Nationals sent over for Denard Span. Meyer is 6’ 9” and throws in the mid-upper 90s with a fantastic slider. He was the 23rd overall pick in the 2011 draft. He pitched 129 innings last year between low and high-A ball. After the promotion, he compiled a 2.31 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 11 walks in 39 innings. His H/9 dropped minimally, but his walk rate dropped by a quarter, so that might make up for his K/9 drop in the move. Meyer is ranked as the 59th best prospect by Baseball America and 40th by MLB.com (after it ranked him 83rd going in to last season). Meyer was a beast in high school and the Red Sox drafted him in the 20th round in 2008, but he opted to go to Kentucky which increased his stock immensely. Meyer and Gibson really could give the 1-2 punch the Twins need going forward, but Meyer is going to take a bit of time still. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015. 4. Byron Buxton (DOB: 12-18-93), RH center fielder: The Twins took Buxton with the second pick in the 2012 draft because his tools are off the charts (speed, arm, defense) or great (average, power). He performed well in the Gulf Coast League even though he struck out a lot and did not hit for average. The key was that he found his power against some fresh-out-of-high-school pitching. He was promoted to Elizabethon and actually improved. The slugging dropped, but his average and OBP climbed and he ended with a combined .792 OPS in his first season of pro baseball as an 18-year-old. My placement at the fourth spot on this list is almost certainly as low as he is on any Twins prospect list. This is simply due to the three ahead of him and the fact that I want to see more plate appearances from Buxton. When Sano was signed, I thought of him in the 3rd spot back then. The Twins are going to be patient from here on out with him, but they very smartly broke character and are moving him up from the very low levels to the middle quickly. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: September 2015-September 2016. 3. Oswaldo Arcia (DOB: 5-9-91), LH right fielder: Arcia is another player who the Twins have been smart about in pushing him through the system. He went ballistic in 2010 in Elizabethon, posting a 1.096 OPS. He followed that up with a combined .866 OPS in 2011 where he faced high-A pitching for almost ¾ of the season. In 2012, Arcia started out much better in Fort Myers than where he ended it in 2011 and had a great second half with New Britain. There he had a .328/.398/.557 (.955) slash with 20 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Those numbers are obviously excellent and he should, in my view, serve as a example for how certain high prospects should be treated by the Twins. That is, players should be promoted in season instead of playing a whole season at one stop. This way players may be a bit over their heads like Arcia was in 2011 in Fort Myers, but they get the taste of the level and can dominate like Arcia did the next year. Arcia is comparable to Jason Kubel pre-injury, so that means that would project him out to be an actual outfielder with an impressive bat who can turn some singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Expected start: short time in New Britain first. ETA: September 2013-2014. 2. Aaron Hicks (DOB: 10-2-89), SH center field: People started to scoff at my pre-2012 ranking of Hicks as my number two prospect. That’s fine, and certainly he would have dropped if he would not have been so good in 2012. His .844 OPS comes with MLB-ready defense in center field. That is something remarkable in itself, but both his power numbers and his stolen bases went up significantly in 2012. Hicks strikes out a lot, but he also walks a lot and that is something that isn’t going to go away since plate discipline doesn’t just disappear. It’s an advanced skill and that is one big reason (coupled with the defense) that made it impossible for me to move Hicks down the prospect list for the past three seasons. Hicks has been up and down, and some of that I blame on the Twins organization, but there is consistent improvement along the way. His bat is not fully ready, but with the trading of Span and Revere, the door was opened for Hicks to step in. And after all has been said and done, I think he will step in right out of the gates in 2013. Expected start: Minnesota. ETA: 2013, even if he doesn’t start out the season with the Twins. 1. Miguel Sano (DOB: 5-11-93), RH third baseman: Sano has more than lived up to expectations heaped upon him as he made his move into professional baseball after a hellacious bunch of scrutiny coming out of the Dominican Republic. He has moved up national prospect lists at a consistent pace to where he is ranked 9th by Baseball America and 12th by MLB.com. The absolute power is there and the amount of walks he drew in 2012 was a major improvement over 2012. As he moves up, the walks might drop but that may mean he gets more pitches to annihilate, so I don’t anticipate any real drop in power numbers even while moving in the Florida State League. The question is going to be eventually about where he will end up playing defensively, but it is certainly the case that third base is his position for 2013. If he can improve there, it is a huge gain for the Twins. If he has to move elsewhere, it hardly matters. His arm is spectacular, but first base may end up being his position. He certainly is growing into the position and might be 6’ 6”, 260 when all is said and done. Think a slightly smaller Frank Thomas and you get the idea. And Sano is still very young with immense talent. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: September 2014, or June 2015.

I wanted to write this blog myself. Good job!

There is a legitimate concern that pushing him up so fast could actually diminish his ability in the long term as it is the case that there are significantly learning steps at each stop in the minors. Also, I am being nice about even addressing this. It is PREPOSTEROUS to look at a few spring training games and come to such conclusions as this one. Also, Eddie is NOT major league ready at second base. For the record, I am a critic of the uber-slow approach this organization takes in moving prospects--I would like to see players moved to AA and AAA faster--but in this case, patience is a virtue. Eddie Rosario at age 23 is going to be a delight. Finally, and this is directed generally and not at you specifically: I am amused by the turn towards Rosario now after the reaction to his 2012 season initially. The dude is good and the 2012 actually support that pretty clearly. There is no reason to lower him significantly. But it is also flat-out dumb to get crazy about ST numbers.

Nice article. That was good and I shared the info on Facebook for peeps. That's pretty rare for me to do that from something around here.

Thanks for this article. It is important to get some perspective on what he did last year and how it really isn't a drop off from 2011 when advancing a level. 2015 should be the time for him to contend for that starting spot.

10. Trevor May (DOB: 9-23-89), RH starter: May came over with Vance Worley in the Ben Revere trade. That trade was a steal for the Twins. Not only did they get a competent middle of the rotation guy for 2013, but they got another for 2014 or 2015 in May. There has been some talk about May’s struggles in AA in 2012 and the potential move to the bullpen. I am not at all clear as to why such nonsense has been uttered. If one actually looks at the numbers, May in 2010 at A ball was dominant. He struck out 92 and walked 20 in 65 innings with a 2.91 ERA. After being promoted to A+ in Clearwater, he kept the K rate high but basically just gave up more homers and a lot more walks. In 2011, he spent the whole year in Clearwater and was quite successful with a 3.63 ERA in 151+ innings. He struck out 208 and walked 67 that year. In 2012, he was promoted to AA and went through a stat decline which should have been suspected. He posted a 4.87 ERA in 149+ innings. He still struck out 151, but walked 78 in that time. His problem was with hits given up and especially with homers given up. He generally looks like a guy who struggles somewhat a level and then with a repeat year dominates again. I am not sure why any “reliever” talk is really in play at this point. May looks like a solid middle rotation guy with mid-90s heat, a good curve, and a good changeup. May will be an interesting pitcher to watch in 2013 and should be advanced to Rochester at some point in order for a 2014 appearance with the Twins. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015. 9. Max Kepler (DOB: 2-10-93), LH outfielder: Kepler’s youth is a bit scary because 2012 may have been his coming out party in that we got the chance to see what the hype surrounding this German was about. His 2010 and 2011 seasons were OK and encouraging, but the return to Elizabethon in 2012 set the stage for a dominant season for the young outfielder. In 269 plate appearances he compiled 16 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers on the way to a .297/.387/.539 line. The walks stayed at roughly the same rate but the strikeouts dropped significantly. Kepler is an above average defender who can play all three outfield positions (though LF is the likely route for him). The increase in slugging is a remarkable improvement and indicates that Kepler may be developing all five tools into actual skills. And this all comes at a very early age. He has the potential to be an elite major league baseball player, but I temper my enthusiasm some until he has a full season under his belt. The Twins have been patient with him early on but it is very possible that he will force the issue in 2013 and could be promoted near the end of the season. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2015-2016. 8. Kyle Gibson (DOB: 10-23-87), RH starter: Gibson came back from Tommy John surgery to have a chance to pitch during the season and then was sent to the Arizona Fall League where he pitched well. He was particularly dominant over his first three starts, giving up only one earned run in 13 innings pitched. He is supposedly on an innings limit of around 140 innings and since this team is not the 2012 Diamondbacks there is no reason to expand much beyond that. I personally would opt for the bulk of those innings to come with the Twins during the last 3/5 of the season, so that would mean Gibson starts either in extended spring training or in Rochester on an innings limit. I am not really sure why anyone would argue for starting Gibson in the Twins rotation in April and then have to shut him down by the beginning of September. It is certainly the case that Gibson has the potential to be a number one starter and I would think this to likely be the case starting in 2014. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: 2013. 7. Jose Berrios (DOB: 5-27-94), RH starter/reliever: The 32nd pick in the 2012 draft was dominant in 30+ innings split between the GCL and the Appy leagues. He struck out 49 and walked only 4,with a WHIP of 0.62, which is preposterously low for an 18-year-old. Berrios would have been the top-rated pitcher in the Twins system if it weren’t for the acquisition of Alex Meyer in the Denard Span trade. Berrios is very young and it is important to temper expectations. That said, the numbers don’t lie. It will interesting to see innings limits as the Twins go forward developing Berrios. He throws mid-90s on a regular basis and his fastball moves. This year he will undoubtedly be working on his slider and changeup. It is hard to tell how fast he might move up the system. I would expect him to continue to see some time in the bullpen to keep the innings low, but he will be starting some as well. He will likely be in Cedar Rapids at some point during the season. Expected start: EST, then maybe to Elizabethon for a bit or straight to Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017. 6. Eddie Rosario (DOB: 9-28-91), LH second baseman/center fielder: Rosario’s prospect status does depend on where he is to play in the field. As a second baseman he is a legitimate top prospect, but as an outfielder he might move to around 10-12. That said, even if Rosario merely reproduces 2012 numbers at Fort Myers in 2013 it will bode extremely well for him. His slugging dropped .180 points between 2011 and 2012, but both his batting average and on-base percentage barely moved. It is perhaps the case that his homerun power will only really be doubles power going forward, but as a second baseman that can be lived with pretty easily. The key is going to be getting acclimated to second base and he was more comfortable at the position later on in 2012. This year is vital for his development as an all-around potential strong regular. People may overlooking the fact that he still did hit 12 homers in 429 plate appearances, many of them after returning from injury. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.

10. Trevor May (DOB: 9-23-89), RH starter: May came over with Vance Worley in the Ben Revere trade. That trade was a steal for the Twins. Not only did they get a competent middle of the rotation guy for 2013, but they got another for 2014 or 2015 in May. There has been some talk about May’s struggles in AA in 2012 and the potential move to the bullpen. I am not at all clear as to why such nonsense has been uttered. If one actually looks at the numbers, May in 2010 at A ball was dominant. He struck out 92 and walked 20 in 65 innings with a 2.91 ERA. After being promoted to A+ in Clearwater, he kept the K rate high but basically just gave up more homers and a lot more walks. In 2011, he spent the whole year in Clearwater and was quite successful with a 3.63 ERA in 151+ innings. He struck out 208 and walked 67 that year. In 2012, he was promoted to AA and went through a stat decline which should have been suspected. He posted a 4.87 ERA in 149+ innings. He still struck out 151, but walked 78 in that time. His problem was with hits given up and especially with homers given up. He generally looks like a guy who struggles somewhat a level and then with a repeat year dominates again. I am not sure why any “reliever” talk is really in play at this point. May looks like a solid middle rotation guy with mid-90s heat, a good curve, and a good changeup. May will be an interesting pitcher to watch in 2013 and should be advanced to Rochester at some point in order for a 2014 appearance with the Twins. Expected start: New Britain. ETA: 2014-2015. 9. Max Kepler (DOB: 2-10-93), LH outfielder: Kepler’s youth is a bit scary because 2012 may have been his coming out party in that we got the chance to see what the hype surrounding this German was about. His 2010 and 2011 seasons were OK and encouraging, but the return to Elizabethon in 2012 set the stage for a dominant season for the young outfielder. In 269 plate appearances he compiled 16 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers on the way to a .297/.387/.539 line. The walks stayed at roughly the same rate but the strikeouts dropped significantly. Kepler is an above average defender who can play all three outfield positions (though LF is the likely route for him). The increase in slugging is a remarkable improvement and indicates that Kepler may be developing all five tools into actual skills. And this all comes at a very early age. He has the potential to be an elite major league baseball player, but I temper my enthusiasm some until he has a full season under his belt. The Twins have been patient with him early on but it is very possible that he will force the issue in 2013 and could be promoted near the end of the season. Expected start: Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2015-2016. 8. Kyle Gibson (DOB: 10-23-87), RH starter: Gibson came back from Tommy John surgery to have a chance to pitch during the season and then was sent to the Arizona Fall League where he pitched well. He was particularly dominant over his first three starts, giving up only one earned run in 13 innings pitched. He is supposedly on an innings limit of around 140 innings and since this team is not the 2012 Diamondbacks there is no reason to expand much beyond that. I personally would opt for the bulk of those innings to come with the Twins during the last 3/5 of the season, so that would mean Gibson starts either in extended spring training or in Rochester on an innings limit. I am not really sure why anyone would argue for starting Gibson in the Twins rotation in April and then have to shut him down by the beginning of September. It is certainly the case that Gibson has the potential to be a number one starter and I would think this to likely be the case starting in 2014. Expected start: Rochester. ETA: 2013. 7. Jose Berrios (DOB: 5-27-94), RH starter/reliever: The 32nd pick in the 2012 draft was dominant in 30+ innings split between the GCL and the Appy leagues. He struck out 49 and walked only 4,with a WHIP of 0.62, which is preposterously low for an 18-year-old. Berrios would have been the top-rated pitcher in the Twins system if it weren’t for the acquisition of Alex Meyer in the Denard Span trade. Berrios is very young and it is important to temper expectations. That said, the numbers don’t lie. It will interesting to see innings limits as the Twins go forward developing Berrios. He throws mid-90s on a regular basis and his fastball moves. This year he will undoubtedly be working on his slider and changeup. It is hard to tell how fast he might move up the system. I would expect him to continue to see some time in the bullpen to keep the innings low, but he will be starting some as well. He will likely be in Cedar Rapids at some point during the season. Expected start: EST, then maybe to Elizabethon for a bit or straight to Cedar Rapids. ETA: 2016-2017. 6. Eddie Rosario (DOB: 9-28-91), LH second baseman/center fielder: Rosario’s prospect status does depend on where he is to play in the field. As a second baseman he is a legitimate top prospect, but as an outfielder he might move to around 10-12. That said, even if Rosario merely reproduces 2012 numbers at Fort Myers in 2013 it will bode extremely well for him. His slugging dropped .180 points between 2011 and 2012, but both his batting average and on-base percentage barely moved. It is perhaps the case that his homerun power will only really be doubles power going forward, but as a second baseman that can be lived with pretty easily. The key is going to be getting acclimated to second base and he was more comfortable at the position later on in 2012. This year is vital for his development as an all-around potential strong regular. People may overlooking the fact that he still did hit 12 homers in 429 plate appearances, many of them after returning from injury. Expected start: Fort Myers. ETA: 2015-2016.

Thanks for the guide. This will likely be the most beneficial part for when we get down there this summer.

Whoa. Thanks for this. It is definitely interesting.