Shane Wahl

Honorable mentions to Dan Rohlfling and Kyle Knudson.

Here is my updated prospect list as the Twins head into the draft. I do this in order to provide context for my post-draft list. The post-draft list will be in detail (pre-season ranking in parentheses). 1. Byron Buxton (4) 2. Miguel Sano (1) 3. Oswaldo Arcia (3) 4. Kyle Gibson (8) 5. Alex Meyer (5) 6. Eddie Rosario (6) 7. Jose Berrios (7) 8. Jorge Polanco (28) 9. Trevor May (10) 10. Max Kepler (9) 11. Travis Harrison (12) 12. D.J. Baxendale (38) 13. Adam Walker (15) 14. Kennys Vargas (16) 15. Danny Santana (22) 16. Josmil Pinto (45) 17. Chris Herrmann (13) 18. Niko Goodrum (17) 19. Nate Roberts (14) 20. Tyler Duffey (48) 21. Daniel Ortiz (32) 22. Matthew Hauser (20) 23. Adrian Salcedo (18) 24. Levi Michael (25) 25. Taylor Rogers (53) 26. Mason Melotakis (30) 27. Corey Williams (42) 28. James Beresford (49) 29. Michael Tonkin (33) 30. Dalton Hicks (NL) 31. Luke Bard (31) 32. J.T. Chargois (35) 33. Angel Morales (40) 34. J.D. Williams (43) 35. Angel Mata (34) 36. Tom Stuifbergen (29) 37. Zach Jones (NL) 38. Jason Wheeler (27) 39. Aderlin Mejia (NL) 40. Hudson Boyd (19) 41. Josh Burris (21) 42. A.J. Achter (41) 43. Matthew Koch (59) 44. Steven Gruver (NL) 45. Matthew Summers (37) 46. Madison Boer (36) 47. Tyler Grimes (NL) 48. Ryan O'Rourke (NL) 49. Tyler Jones (57) 50. Nelvin Fuentes (NL) 51. Derek Rodriguez (26) 52. Lester Oliveros (46) 53. Logan Darnell (58) 54. Dakota Watts (47) 55. Bruce Pugh (50) 56. Pat Dean (52) 57. Romy Jimenez (56) 58. Lance Ray (44) 59. Candido Pimentel (NL) 60. Deolis Guerra (51)

Here is my updated prospect list as the Twins head into the draft. I do this in order to provide context for my post-draft list. The post-draft list will be in detail (pre-season ranking in parentheses). 1. Byron Buxton (4) 2. Miguel Sano (1) 3. Oswaldo Arcia (3) 4. Kyle Gibson (8) 5. Alex Meyer (5) 6. Eddie Rosario (6) 7. Jose Berrios (7) 8. Jorge Polanco (28) 9. Trevor May (10) 10. Max Kepler (9) 11. Travis Harrison (12) 12. D.J. Baxendale (38) 13. Adam Walker (15) 14. Kennys Vargas (16) 15. Danny Santana (22) 16. Josmil Pinto (45) 17. Chris Herrmann (13) 18. Niko Goodrum (17) 19. Nate Roberts (14) 20. Tyler Duffey (48) 21. Daniel Ortiz (32) 22. Matthew Hauser (20) 23. Adrian Salcedo (18) 24. Levi Michael (25) 25. Taylor Rogers (53) 26. Mason Melotakis (30) 27. Corey Williams (42) 28. James Beresford (49) 29. Michael Tonkin (33) 30. Dalton Hicks (NL) 31. Luke Bard (31) 32. J.T. Chargois (35) 33. Angel Morales (40) 34. J.D. Williams (43) 35. Angel Mata (34) 36. Tom Stuifbergen (29) 37. Zach Jones (NL) 38. Jason Wheeler (27) 39. Aderlin Mejia (NL) 40. Hudson Boyd (19) 41. Josh Burris (21) 42. A.J. Achter (41) 43. Matthew Koch (59) 44. Steven Gruver (NL) 45. Matthew Summers (37) 46. Madison Boer (36) 47. Tyler Grimes (NL) 48. Ryan O'Rourke (NL) 49. Tyler Jones (57) 50. Nelvin Fuentes (NL) 51. Derek Rodriguez (26) 52. Lester Oliveros (46) 53. Logan Darnell (58) 54. Dakota Watts (47) 55. Bruce Pugh (50) 56. Pat Dean (52) 57. Romy Jimenez (56) 58. Lance Ray (44) 59. Candido Pimentel (NL) 60. Deolis Guerra (51)

And P.S. I am going to do the same today with no analysis. It's a pre-draft necessity to get prospect lists out and then a post-draft necessity to add in the picks.

So about Mejia . . . yeah he is doing very well so far. It's a weird thing. They just shifted him over from GCL to Fort Myers out of need at the end of last season. Then he is in EST and goes straight to Fort Myers again? I don't know how to gauge that. He is someone to watch and I might just start a thread on him.

In that case, I will actually continue with shortstops very soon!

I just got a little sick to my stomach. Hopefully this injury isn't a big deal.

Pretty good list. I might not alter too much from your top 20, actually. I don't know about Mejia yet. I am not dropping Herrmann that far either. Hudson Boyd probably needs to move to the bullpen.

I missed this until now. I completely agree, without a doubt. I wish Purdue would have payed attention three years ago.

First, "views" does not equal "reads" does it? I have often wondered what percentage of "viewers" ended up being readers. Also, I like your idea, though I am not sure about Meyer. I liked Albers when the Twins first signed him and he has really produced.

This was awesome. I am glad I found it after all this time.

Yes, how about a rotation that includes BOTH Gibson and Deduno!?

Chris Colabello works for me. Doesn't play the OF, but that doesn't matter.

Second base is a problem area for the Twins and has been since Luis Castillo. Here's a look at the state of the system from top to bottom, in detail: Minnesota: Brian Dozier: RH, DOB: 5-15-87. STATS: .205/.250/.279 (.529), 2/2/1, 8-29, 3-3. I was a fan of Brian Dozier up until May of this year. I worry about his ability to be a competent player in the major leagues at this point. His defense at second is good, but he is abysmal at the plate. His walk/strikeout rate is just inexcusable. It's frustrating because he can really get good swings on the ball sometimes (his homer in the ninth against Boston, for instance), but he is not good overall at the moment. Jamey Carroll: RH, 2-18-74. STATS: .304/.361/.339 (.700), 2/0/0, 5-13, 0-0. Carroll is getting fairly limited playing time this year, mainly because of Dozier. But Carroll is doing an OK job as a utility player and his OPS should climb over .700 with a bit more playing time, returning to 2010 and 2011 numbers. I like Carroll as a tradeable player to some N.L. team at the deadline (even if the Twins are somehow also competing for the playoff) since he is a good roster piece to move around in certain situations more likely to come up in that league. The return just needs to be competent, not overwhelming. I think the Braves, Nationals, Giants, Cardinals and Reds are notable teams to start considering for trade possibilities. Eduardo Escobar: SH, DOB: 1-5-89. STATS: .293/.328/.466 (.793), 2/1/2, 3-6, 0-1. I undervalued Escobar for several months now and am admitting that I was wrong, fundamentally, and could be very wrong about his ability and potential. I think that there is a fairly easy managerial decision to be made right now: play Escobar somewhere until that OPS drops below .730 or so. It's really simple: he spells Plouffe once a week, spells Florimon twice a week, and spells Dozier twice a week. Rochester: Eric Farris: RH, DOB: 3-3-86. STATS: .227/.278/.311 (.589), 3/1/2, 9-19, 7-0. I like Farris' ability to steal bases, but there is really no reason for Farris to have 138 plate appearances right now. For whatever absurd reason, Farris was batting 6th in the Red Wings lineup just last night. There is no excuse for that. Joe Benson was batting 9th in this lineup. And we will see below that there are AA players now deserving of a promotion. Nate Hanson: RH, DOB: 2/8/87. STATS (AA/AAA): .255/.318/.368 (.686), 3/0/3, 11-23, 0-0. Hanson is struggling in AAA now and hasn't played second base yet (for whatever insane reason--Deibinson Romero must be cringing in AA). He is a potential super-utility option as he has played 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in significant doses. New Britain: James Beresford: SH, DOB: 1-19-89. STATS: .340/.413/.383 (.796), 4/0/0, 11-16, 3-0. I believe Beresford is an overlooked player right now in the Twins system. He plays great defense at second and perhaps great defense at shortstop, though the Twins are hardly bothered to put him at that position this year so far. Maybe that is because they know he can do and they are trying out Danny Santana there. The offensive numbers are good for Beresford this year and I am really impressed with his ability to make substantial improvements offensively while repeating at AA. That said, he belongs in AAA by now. He's basically ready defensively and is showing major strides at the plate. And below him are guys named Rosario and Michael. His SLG has jumped 69 points to MI respectability now. Jason Christian: LH, DOB: 6-16-87. STATS: .189/.271/.302 (.573), 2/2/0, 6-18, 2-2. Organizational filler who is taking plate appearances away from players with actual potential. This is what the Twins do, and there is no good reason for it. He's never been remotely good in the minors, yet the Twins signed him. Danny Santana: SH, DOB: 11-7-90. STATS: .280/.297/.354 (.651), 7/3/0, 5-28, 7-3. Santana has a lot of potential as a kind of Ben Revere of the infield. I list him here as a second baseman, because I see no future as a SS. He has been fairly bad his whole minor league career there. I am not sure what the Twins are thinking because swapping Santana and Beresford is such an obvious decision. Regardless, Santana did not initially do well after the jump this season to AA ball, but he has come on strong in last 10 games. Making these adjustments matters, and he is doing so. I would like to simply see him improve his now adequate defense at second base. Santana's long-term role with the Twins really depends on Eddie Rosario more than those above him. Do not be surprised if the Twins offer him up in a trade sometime down the road if they find themselves comfortable with Rosario at second, and a few other players as SS and UTIL players. That said, Santana does have CF experience and could position himself as another player who is Brian Dinkelman+ (well maybe ++). Fort Myers: Eddie Rosario: LH, DOB: 9-28-91. STATS: .318/.359/.487 (.846), 9/4/3, 10-26, 3-2. Rosario is a key component to the Twins future. As a second baseman, he could serve as a major re-shaping figure for this team. And the results are in so far: after a shaky transition in 2012, Rosario has improved his defense enormously at second base and he may be projectable as an above-average major league defender at the position. And this will come with significant doubles power and some other extra pop. His plate discipline has lagged only a tiny bit after the move to high-A ball. He could serve as the best 2-hole hitter ahead of Joe Mauer (Ben Revere 2012 for a few months is the only other contender) in the Mauer era. There is no reason that Rosario should not finish at AA. Levi Michael: SH, DOB: 2-9-91. STATS: .210/.278/.370 (.648), 6/2/1, 8-19, 2-0. Michael has returned to Fort Myers and has mimicked his numbers from a season ago, though he is coming off of an injury. His power is slightly up too, which is a really good sign. If he sticks at short that would be a plus, but he could very well end up competing at second base. And with Rosario there, he is going to have to improve offensively. And how. Cedar Rapids: Jorge Polanco: SH, DOB: 7-5-93. STATS: .325/.376/.491 (.867), 12/6/1, 16-20, 1-2. Polanco is exciting. Up until he turned 18, Polanco struggled at the plate. In the past two years, he has gone ballistic. His defense at SS was an attractive thing as a 16-year-old. He has now split time at SS and second overall is minor league career. He struggled at SS up until this year. In limited time there he has really improved his defensive stats. I think the Twins want to see if Niko Goodrum will stay at SS, but that may be doubtful. Polanco could move over and be the SS of the future for the Twins. For now, he is the primary second baseman for Cedar Rapids. Even though his numbers are great, I wouldn't expect a promotion to Fort Myers this year. Candido Pimentel: SH, DOB: 7/19/90. STATS: .262/.328/.299 (.627), 2/1/0, 11-27, 7-2. Pimentel blossomed last year in his third season of rookie ball, but he appears to be returning to the pre-2012 performance. He is rotating into the lineup with Polanco and Goodrum this year, but he really needs to improve if he has any chance. EST: Jose Ramirez: SH, DOB: 9-6-91. STATS (2012 in the GCL): .234/.294/.269, 3/1/0, 10-33, 3-5. Ramirez is likely going to Elizabethon when that season starts. He has not produced, but perhaps this year he gets acclimated to the U.S. and plays better. Logan Wade: SH, DOB: 11-13-91. STATS (2012 in the GCL): .234/.301/.371 (.672), 6/4/1, 12-29, 2-2 The Australian turned in an OK performance in 2012, but will need to improve significantly to advance out of rookie ball. Will Hurt: RH, DOB: 12-22-93. STATS (bad in limited time in the GCL, not even worth mentioning!). With a name like that, I really want him to succeed. He was drafted in the 16th round of the 2012 draft and played very little rookie ball. He should go back to the GCL and play, hopefully turning things around this year. Conclusion: Eddie Rosario alone makes this position adequate in the system, but now the Twins have significant depth at second base. There are some question marks about who's going to end up staying at second and short, but the middle infield situation has improved markedly in the past year with a successful move (Rosario) and very improved performances (Escobar, Beresford, Santana, and Polanco).

Second base is a problem area for the Twins and has been since Luis Castillo. Here's a look at the state of the system from top to bottom, in detail: Minnesota: Brian Dozier: RH, DOB: 5-15-87. STATS: .205/.250/.279 (.529), 2/2/1, 8-29, 3-3. I was a fan of Brian Dozier up until May of this year. I worry about his ability to be a competent player in the major leagues at this point. His defense at second is good, but he is abysmal at the plate. His walk/strikeout rate is just inexcusable. It's frustrating because he can really get good swings on the ball sometimes (his homer in the ninth against Boston, for instance), but he is not good overall at the moment. Jamey Carroll: RH, 2-18-74. STATS: .304/.361/.339 (.700), 2/0/0, 5-13, 0-0. Carroll is getting fairly limited playing time this year, mainly because of Dozier. But Carroll is doing an OK job as a utility player and his OPS should climb over .700 with a bit more playing time, returning to 2010 and 2011 numbers. I like Carroll as a tradeable player to some N.L. team at the deadline (even if the Twins are somehow also competing for the playoff) since he is a good roster piece to move around in certain situations more likely to come up in that league. The return just needs to be competent, not overwhelming. I think the Braves, Nationals, Giants, Cardinals and Reds are notable teams to start considering for trade possibilities. Eduardo Escobar: SH, DOB: 1-5-89. STATS: .293/.328/.466 (.793), 2/1/2, 3-6, 0-1. I undervalued Escobar for several months now and am admitting that I was wrong, fundamentally, and could be very wrong about his ability and potential. I think that there is a fairly easy managerial decision to be made right now: play Escobar somewhere until that OPS drops below .730 or so. It's really simple: he spells Plouffe once a week, spells Florimon twice a week, and spells Dozier twice a week. Rochester: Eric Farris: RH, DOB: 3-3-86. STATS: .227/.278/.311 (.589), 3/1/2, 9-19, 7-0. I like Farris' ability to steal bases, but there is really no reason for Farris to have 138 plate appearances right now. For whatever absurd reason, Farris was batting 6th in the Red Wings lineup just last night. There is no excuse for that. Joe Benson was batting 9th in this lineup. And we will see below that there are AA players now deserving of a promotion. Nate Hanson: RH, DOB: 2/8/87. STATS (AA/AAA): .255/.318/.368 (.686), 3/0/3, 11-23, 0-0. Hanson is struggling in AAA now and hasn't played second base yet (for whatever insane reason--Deibinson Romero must be cringing in AA). He is a potential super-utility option as he has played 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in significant doses. New Britain: James Beresford: SH, DOB: 1-19-89. STATS: .340/.413/.383 (.796), 4/0/0, 11-16, 3-0. I believe Beresford is an overlooked player right now in the Twins system. He plays great defense at second and perhaps great defense at shortstop, though the Twins are hardly bothered to put him at that position this year so far. Maybe that is because they know he can do and they are trying out Danny Santana there. The offensive numbers are good for Beresford this year and I am really impressed with his ability to make substantial improvements offensively while repeating at AA. That said, he belongs in AAA by now. He's basically ready defensively and is showing major strides at the plate. And below him are guys named Rosario and Michael. His SLG has jumped 69 points to MI respectability now. Jason Christian: LH, DOB: 6-16-87. STATS: .189/.271/.302 (.573), 2/2/0, 6-18, 2-2. Organizational filler who is taking plate appearances away from players with actual potential. This is what the Twins do, and there is no good reason for it. He's never been remotely good in the minors, yet the Twins signed him. Danny Santana: SH, DOB: 11-7-90. STATS: .280/.297/.354 (.651), 7/3/0, 5-28, 7-3. Santana has a lot of potential as a kind of Ben Revere of the infield. I list him here as a second baseman, because I see no future as a SS. He has been fairly bad his whole minor league career there. I am not sure what the Twins are thinking because swapping Santana and Beresford is such an obvious decision. Regardless, Santana did not initially do well after the jump this season to AA ball, but he has come on strong in last 10 games. Making these adjustments matters, and he is doing so. I would like to simply see him improve his now adequate defense at second base. Santana's long-term role with the Twins really depends on Eddie Rosario more than those above him. Do not be surprised if the Twins offer him up in a trade sometime down the road if they find themselves comfortable with Rosario at second, and a few other players as SS and UTIL players. That said, Santana does have CF experience and could position himself as another player who is Brian Dinkelman+ (well maybe ++). Fort Myers: Eddie Rosario: LH, DOB: 9-28-91. STATS: .318/.359/.487 (.846), 9/4/3, 10-26, 3-2. Rosario is a key component to the Twins future. As a second baseman, he could serve as a major re-shaping figure for this team. And the results are in so far: after a shaky transition in 2012, Rosario has improved his defense enormously at second base and he may be projectable as an above-average major league defender at the position. And this will come with significant doubles power and some other extra pop. His plate discipline has lagged only a tiny bit after the move to high-A ball. He could serve as the best 2-hole hitter ahead of Joe Mauer (Ben Revere 2012 for a few months is the only other contender) in the Mauer era. There is no reason that Rosario should not finish at AA. Levi Michael: SH, DOB: 2-9-91. STATS: .210/.278/.370 (.648), 6/2/1, 8-19, 2-0. Michael has returned to Fort Myers and has mimicked his numbers from a season ago, though he is coming off of an injury. His power is slightly up too, which is a really good sign. If he sticks at short that would be a plus, but he could very well end up competing at second base. And with Rosario there, he is going to have to improve offensively. And how. Cedar Rapids: Jorge Polanco: SH, DOB: 7-5-93. STATS: .325/.376/.491 (.867), 12/6/1, 16-20, 1-2. Polanco is exciting. Up until he turned 18, Polanco struggled at the plate. In the past two years, he has gone ballistic. His defense at SS was an attractive thing as a 16-year-old. He has now split time at SS and second overall is minor league career. He struggled at SS up until this year. In limited time there he has really improved his defensive stats. I think the Twins want to see if Niko Goodrum will stay at SS, but that may be doubtful. Polanco could move over and be the SS of the future for the Twins. For now, he is the primary second baseman for Cedar Rapids. Even though his numbers are great, I wouldn't expect a promotion to Fort Myers this year. Candido Pimentel: SH, DOB: 7/19/90. STATS: .262/.328/.299 (.627), 2/1/0, 11-27, 7-2. Pimentel blossomed last year in his third season of rookie ball, but he appears to be returning to the pre-2012 performance. He is rotating into the lineup with Polanco and Goodrum this year, but he really needs to improve if he has any chance. EST: Jose Ramirez: SH, DOB: 9-6-91. STATS (2012 in the GCL): .234/.294/.269, 3/1/0, 10-33, 3-5. Ramirez is likely going to Elizabethon when that season starts. He has not produced, but perhaps this year he gets acclimated to the U.S. and plays better. Logan Wade: SH, DOB: 11-13-91. STATS (2012 in the GCL): .234/.301/.371 (.672), 6/4/1, 12-29, 2-2 The Australian turned in an OK performance in 2012, but will need to improve significantly to advance out of rookie ball. Will Hurt: RH, DOB: 12-22-93. STATS (bad in limited time in the GCL, not even worth mentioning!). With a name like that, I really want him to succeed. He was drafted in the 16th round of the 2012 draft and played very little rookie ball. He should go back to the GCL and play, hopefully turning things around this year. Conclusion: Eddie Rosario alone makes this position adequate in the system, but now the Twins have significant depth at second base. There are some question marks about who's going to end up staying at second and short, but the middle infield situation has improved markedly in the past year with a successful move (Rosario) and very improved performances (Escobar, Beresford, Santana, and Polanco).

I don't do this ever, but I have to say: sheesh, REALLY? This is not worthy of comment? I am finishing up the second base stuff for tomorrow, but damn. should I even bother?

This is the first part in a series examining the Twins system, position-by-position in order to get both a near and long-term perspective of Twins' system. With regard to first base, there are a number of question marks, certainly, but it also seems to be the case that there is some hope both in the near future and definitely down the road. Let's go from top to bottom, starting with the Twins: Minnesota: Justin Morneau: LH, DOB: 5-15-81. STATS: .296/.340/.415 (.755), 10 doubles/0 triples/2 homers, 10 bb-22 k, 0-0 sb-cs. Morneau is in the final year of his contract and will have about $4 million left on his contract at the trade deadline. But I would not count those chickens before they hatch. The Twins may see Morneau as an integral part of the near future which will see some key prospects start to bloom. His injury history may give pause, but there is no doubt that he is starting to really come on this season and is a different player. He is really producing with RISP right now and the lack of homer power shouldn't be a cause for concern. Of course, the expected improvement coming for the rest of the season both makes his resigning with the Twins and his being traded more probable. There is the potential option of trading Morneau for some top 100-200 prospect at the deadline and then signing him in the offseason. That would be potentially ideal, especially given the Chris Parmelee situation. Chris Parmelee: LH, DOB: 2/24/1988. STATS: .214/.301/.337 (.638), 3/0/3, 11-28, 1-1. Parmelee has been in RF this year and has been a competent defender out there. People seem to assume that Parmelee is the heir-apparent to Morneau's position, but Parmelee is certainly not really built like a first baseman and may have a future as a platoon player or bench bat. He was dominant in AAA last year and I do believe that he is a competent player, but so was Ron Coomer. Parmelee is a player who I view as having no real long-term future with the Twins and he if does have such a future than it is likely a bad sign for the development of many prospects in the system who would have to basically flame out in order to cement Parmelee on the Twins roster. This isn't a knock on him, but just the reality of the potential future for the Twins. I would like to see Parmelee succeed this year to the point that some team will like his ability enough to trade some mid-level prospect for him. Rochester: Chris Colabello: RH, DOB: 10/24/83. STATS: .326/.384/.574 (.958), 11/0/8, 14-32, 0-1. Colabello is a great story of perseverance, but that is also means that he is in his prime right now. This means he should be looked upon as the next guy to be "a bench bat" if the Twins decide to go with a 11-man pitching staff or if Wilkin Ramirez or someone like Morneau, Parmelee, or Arcia go to the DL. He is almost certainly guaranteed a September spot on the roster at the very least. He has proved all he need to in order to earn a chance. The Twins will be looking to use him as soon as possible. Jeff Clement: LH, DOB: 8/21/1983. STATS: .179/.243/.255 (.498), 2/0/2, 9-26, 0-0. Clement may be on his last leg as a contending major league baseball player. On paper he looks like he could be a contributor, but then he plays and it all goes south. Only a series of injuries to two of the three players above him could change his status as AAA-filler. And AAA-filler is not something I particularly like, especially when it is obvious that many prospects could use some AAA time. Nathan Hanson: RH, DOB: 2/8/87. STATS (AA/AAA): .287/.368/.406 (.773), 3/0/3, 11-18, 0-0. Hanson has dramatically improved his performance over the rest of his minor league career this year. While he has not been in position to play first base this year, this is the place where he has played the most in his minor league career. He is a potential super-utility option as he has played 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in significant doses. He is someone to watch as a Chanhassen native looking to crack the big leagues . . . as a better version of Brian Dinkelman. New Britain: Reynaldo Rodriguez:, RH, DOB: 2-7-86. STATS: .217/.315./.453 (.767), 9/2/4, 15-27, 2-1. Rodriguez is true organizational filler, and Deibinson Romero is coming to encroach on his time anyway. This spot in New Britain is a temporary placeholder for a prospect from Fort Myers, most likely Kennys Vargas. Fort Myers: Kennys Vargas: SH, DOB: 8-1-90. STATS: .271/.354/.496 (.850), 9/1/6, 16-31, 0-0. Vargas is almost a luxury. He is a power hitter with massive potential. His ISO numbers for 2013 are pretty much right between his fantastic 2012 season and his good 2011 season. He can certainly hit and seems to be a competent defensive first baseman right now. He's a career .890 OPS guy and is someone to watch the rest of the season and next season. If he continues to produce like this, the Twins are going to have a lot of positional and roster decisions to make. Lance Ray: LH, DOB: 9-2-89. STATS: .206/.276/.265 (.541), 4/0/0, 7-12, 1-1. Ray has been injured this year and this accounts for some of his struggles. He has been a decent player in the minors, but nothing too overwhelm. The rest of 2013 in Fort Myers is important for him as his development may either stagnate or warrant continued development in the system. His ability to play both corner OF positions and first base is an asset. Michael Gonzales: LH, DOB: 6-16-88. STATS: .238/.338/.476 (.814), 1/1/4, 10-17, 0-0. The big first baseman is injured, but his OPS has jumped 100 points in his second go-around with Fort Myers so far. He is another guy with good power and whose 2013 is a very important season. A healthy rest of the season is going to be vital for his development. I would like to see him see AA pitching this year. Drew Leachman: RH, DOB: 4-21-89. STATS: .239/.288/.284 (572), 1/1/0, 4-9, 1-1. Leachman was promoted to Fort Myers after a solid start at Cedar Rapids. He is very similar to Lance Ray, but with less power. He can play the corner OF positions along with 1B. He probably will remain in Fort Myers this year to see if he can handle better pitching. Cedar Rapids: Dalton Hicks: LH, DOB: 4-2-90. STATS: .288/.362/.485 (.847), 11/0/5, 15-28, 0-0. Hicks has emerged this year as a solid middle of the order hitter with good power and decent plate discipline. He is bad against lefties, but great against righties, so the sky may not be the limit for Hicks. That said, he will continue to get better and will likely pass a few of the guys above him over the next year. EST: Rory Rhodes: RH, DOB: 7-28-91. STATS (cumulative minor league career): .242/.328/.383 (.711), 46/7/19, 97-269, 11-11. Rhodes was demoted from low-A back down to E-Town last year. He hit well at the latter destination and should be ready to serve as a replacement in Cedar Rapids once some of those guys get promoted. He has decent power, but strikes out an awful lot. He is still pretty young, though, and may simply have issues with the fact that he is 6'9" and a bit lanky. I imagine long swings may be an issue. Bryan Haar: RH, DOB: 12-9-89. STATS (2012): .250/.319/.345 (.664), 9/1/1, 13-35, 3-3. Haar was drafted in the 34th round last year and did not put up very strong numbers. He is receiving instruction right now and should be headed to E-Town once that season starts. He is definitely in a make or break season at age 23 in rookie ball. Conclusion The Twins are better stocked at this position than they have been in the recent past. Players like Colabello, Vargas, and Hicks have created nice depth at this position across the board. I have toyed with the idea that the Twins should try to trade both Morneau and Parmelee since there is good value in the former and no real Twins future with the latter. Certainly there could be a movement up for many of these players this year.

This is the first part in a series examining the Twins system, position-by-position in order to get both a near and long-term perspective of Twins' system. With regard to first base, there are a number of question marks, certainly, but it also seems to be the case that there is some hope both in the near future and definitely down the road. Let's go from top to bottom, starting with the Twins: Minnesota: Justin Morneau: LH, DOB: 5-15-81. STATS: .296/.340/.415 (.755), 10 doubles/0 triples/2 homers, 10 bb-22 k, 0-0 sb-cs. Morneau is in the final year of his contract and will have about $4 million left on his contract at the trade deadline. But I would not count those chickens before they hatch. The Twins may see Morneau as an integral part of the near future which will see some key prospects start to bloom. His injury history may give pause, but there is no doubt that he is starting to really come on this season and is a different player. He is really producing with RISP right now and the lack of homer power shouldn't be a cause for concern. Of course, the expected improvement coming for the rest of the season both makes his resigning with the Twins and his being traded more probable. There is the potential option of trading Morneau for some top 100-200 prospect at the deadline and then signing him in the offseason. That would be potentially ideal, especially given the Chris Parmelee situation. Chris Parmelee: LH, DOB: 2/24/1988. STATS: .214/.301/.337 (.638), 3/0/3, 11-28, 1-1. Parmelee has been in RF this year and has been a competent defender out there. People seem to assume that Parmelee is the heir-apparent to Morneau's position, but Parmelee is certainly not really built like a first baseman and may have a future as a platoon player or bench bat. He was dominant in AAA last year and I do believe that he is a competent player, but so was Ron Coomer. Parmelee is a player who I view as having no real long-term future with the Twins and he if does have such a future than it is likely a bad sign for the development of many prospects in the system who would have to basically flame out in order to cement Parmelee on the Twins roster. This isn't a knock on him, but just the reality of the potential future for the Twins. I would like to see Parmelee succeed this year to the point that some team will like his ability enough to trade some mid-level prospect for him. Rochester: Chris Colabello: RH, DOB: 10/24/83. STATS: .326/.384/.574 (.958), 11/0/8, 14-32, 0-1. Colabello is a great story of perseverance, but that is also means that he is in his prime right now. This means he should be looked upon as the next guy to be "a bench bat" if the Twins decide to go with a 11-man pitching staff or if Wilkin Ramirez or someone like Morneau, Parmelee, or Arcia go to the DL. He is almost certainly guaranteed a September spot on the roster at the very least. He has proved all he need to in order to earn a chance. The Twins will be looking to use him as soon as possible. Jeff Clement: LH, DOB: 8/21/1983. STATS: .179/.243/.255 (.498), 2/0/2, 9-26, 0-0. Clement may be on his last leg as a contending major league baseball player. On paper he looks like he could be a contributor, but then he plays and it all goes south. Only a series of injuries to two of the three players above him could change his status as AAA-filler. And AAA-filler is not something I particularly like, especially when it is obvious that many prospects could use some AAA time. Nathan Hanson: RH, DOB: 2/8/87. STATS (AA/AAA): .287/.368/.406 (.773), 3/0/3, 11-18, 0-0. Hanson has dramatically improved his performance over the rest of his minor league career this year. While he has not been in position to play first base this year, this is the place where he has played the most in his minor league career. He is a potential super-utility option as he has played 3B, 2B, 1B, and LF in significant doses. He is someone to watch as a Chanhassen native looking to crack the big leagues . . . as a better version of Brian Dinkelman. New Britain: Reynaldo Rodriguez:, RH, DOB: 2-7-86. STATS: .217/.315./.453 (.767), 9/2/4, 15-27, 2-1. Rodriguez is true organizational filler, and Deibinson Romero is coming to encroach on his time anyway. This spot in New Britain is a temporary placeholder for a prospect from Fort Myers, most likely Kennys Vargas. Fort Myers: Kennys Vargas: SH, DOB: 8-1-90. STATS: .271/.354/.496 (.850), 9/1/6, 16-31, 0-0. Vargas is almost a luxury. He is a power hitter with massive potential. His ISO numbers for 2013 are pretty much right between his fantastic 2012 season and his good 2011 season. He can certainly hit and seems to be a competent defensive first baseman right now. He's a career .890 OPS guy and is someone to watch the rest of the season and next season. If he continues to produce like this, the Twins are going to have a lot of positional and roster decisions to make. Lance Ray: LH, DOB: 9-2-89. STATS: .206/.276/.265 (.541), 4/0/0, 7-12, 1-1. Ray has been injured this year and this accounts for some of his struggles. He has been a decent player in the minors, but nothing too overwhelm. The rest of 2013 in Fort Myers is important for him as his development may either stagnate or warrant continued development in the system. His ability to play both corner OF positions and first base is an asset. Michael Gonzales: LH, DOB: 6-16-88. STATS: .238/.338/.476 (.814), 1/1/4, 10-17, 0-0. The big first baseman is injured, but his OPS has jumped 100 points in his second go-around with Fort Myers so far. He is another guy with good power and whose 2013 is a very important season. A healthy rest of the season is going to be vital for his development. I would like to see him see AA pitching this year. Drew Leachman: RH, DOB: 4-21-89. STATS: .239/.288/.284 (572), 1/1/0, 4-9, 1-1. Leachman was promoted to Fort Myers after a solid start at Cedar Rapids. He is very similar to Lance Ray, but with less power. He can play the corner OF positions along with 1B. He probably will remain in Fort Myers this year to see if he can handle better pitching. Cedar Rapids: Dalton Hicks: LH, DOB: 4-2-90. STATS: .288/.362/.485 (.847), 11/0/5, 15-28, 0-0. Hicks has emerged this year as a solid middle of the order hitter with good power and decent plate discipline. He is bad against lefties, but great against righties, so the sky may not be the limit for Hicks. That said, he will continue to get better and will likely pass a few of the guys above him over the next year. EST: Rory Rhodes: RH, DOB: 7-28-91. STATS (cumulative minor league career): .242/.328/.383 (.711), 46/7/19, 97-269, 11-11. Rhodes was demoted from low-A back down to E-Town last year. He hit well at the latter destination and should be ready to serve as a replacement in Cedar Rapids once some of those guys get promoted. He has decent power, but strikes out an awful lot. He is still pretty young, though, and may simply have issues with the fact that he is 6'9" and a bit lanky. I imagine long swings may be an issue. Bryan Haar: RH, DOB: 12-9-89. STATS (2012): .250/.319/.345 (.664), 9/1/1, 13-35, 3-3. Haar was drafted in the 34th round last year and did not put up very strong numbers. He is receiving instruction right now and should be headed to E-Town once that season starts. He is definitely in a make or break season at age 23 in rookie ball. Conclusion The Twins are better stocked at this position than they have been in the recent past. Players like Colabello, Vargas, and Hicks have created nice depth at this position across the board. I have toyed with the idea that the Twins should try to trade both Morneau and Parmelee since there is good value in the former and no real Twins future with the latter. Certainly there could be a movement up for many of these players this year.

I am not sure many really expected all of this. The Twins are now 8-7 and have won four games in a row. This is while starting without their best 2012 starting pitcher for nine games, with Vance Worley being bad until his fourth start, with a horribly struggling rookie in Aaron Hicks, with Justin Morneau at even sub-2012 levels of production, with Ryan Doumit struggling, with . . . . well you get the idea. The fact that the Twins are over .500 is surprising when you consider that only Joe Mauer, Eduardo Escobar, Pedro Florimon, and Kevin Correia are actually performing beyond expectations right now. So there's that--the Twins have gotten off to an above average start literally and that means a good start when looking at a potential .410 win percentage for the year. To make things better, there is enormous good news in the minors. While Kyle Gibson has been fairly bad and has pitched too many innings per start if he is on an overall innings limit, Alex Meyer and Trevor May have looked good. When Gibson gets it going and when Meyer and May progress further, the Twins suddenly have legitimate options at starting pitcher. Drafting a lefty starting star (Manaea) would add immensely to the 2015 season. Meyer has struck out 19 in 16 innings and he is giving up more hits then he is accustomed to, but he is moving right along towards a September call-up. May is going to struggle at times, but he is also going to make B.J. Hermsen out to be a non-prospect (no offense, but Hermsen does not throw a pitch--currently--for a strikeout). Offensively, it seems that Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario are too big for where they are at. There is zero reason for the Twins not to promote Buxton to Fort Myers immediately (and Angel Morales can get a true make it or break it season at AA). Sano and Rosario should remain until about June to be promoted to AA and then we can see the experiment really begin (Sano at third, Rosario at second). Buxton has produced a .415/.523/.642 line in 15 games. Buxton has two of every extra base hit while Sano has a slash of .375/.438/.734 and Rosario brings in a .352/.385/.507 slash. Rosario has no errors so far, and that is a good sign for the biggest positional question in the system. Sano can move to first, Buxton can be the CF, moving Hicks to RF, and Rosario as a second baseman makes the team strong at a position that has been a debacle since Chuck Knoblauch. D.J. Baxendale is the great honorable mention right now. As will be Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, and Jose Berrios. Baxendale, in particular, is notable for his success as a starter this year. This is all a sign of a very good future. The 2013 team is competing for a win of the division AND the prospects are looking quite good. This year is already different than 2012. And that is worth a lot.

I am not sure many really expected all of this. The Twins are now 8-7 and have won four games in a row. This is while starting without their best 2012 starting pitcher for nine games, with Vance Worley being bad until his fourth start, with a horribly struggling rookie in Aaron Hicks, with Justin Morneau at even sub-2012 levels of production, with Ryan Doumit struggling, with . . . . well you get the idea. The fact that the Twins are over .500 is surprising when you consider that only Joe Mauer, Eduardo Escobar, Pedro Florimon, and Kevin Correia are actually performing beyond expectations right now. So there's that--the Twins have gotten off to an above average start literally and that means a good start when looking at a potential .410 win percentage for the year. To make things better, there is enormous good news in the minors. While Kyle Gibson has been fairly bad and has pitched too many innings per start if he is on an overall innings limit, Alex Meyer and Trevor May have looked good. When Gibson gets it going and when Meyer and May progress further, the Twins suddenly have legitimate options at starting pitcher. Drafting a lefty starting star (Manaea) would add immensely to the 2015 season. Meyer has struck out 19 in 16 innings and he is giving up more hits then he is accustomed to, but he is moving right along towards a September call-up. May is going to struggle at times, but he is also going to make B.J. Hermsen out to be a non-prospect (no offense, but Hermsen does not throw a pitch--currently--for a strikeout). Offensively, it seems that Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, and Eddie Rosario are too big for where they are at. There is zero reason for the Twins not to promote Buxton to Fort Myers immediately (and Angel Morales can get a true make it or break it season at AA). Sano and Rosario should remain until about June to be promoted to AA and then we can see the experiment really begin (Sano at third, Rosario at second). Buxton has produced a .415/.523/.642 line in 15 games. Buxton has two of every extra base hit while Sano has a slash of .375/.438/.734 and Rosario brings in a .352/.385/.507 slash. Rosario has no errors so far, and that is a good sign for the biggest positional question in the system. Sano can move to first, Buxton can be the CF, moving Hicks to RF, and Rosario as a second baseman makes the team strong at a position that has been a debacle since Chuck Knoblauch. D.J. Baxendale is the great honorable mention right now. As will be Michael Tonkin, A.J. Achter, and Jose Berrios. Baxendale, in particular, is notable for his success as a starter this year. This is all a sign of a very good future. The 2013 team is competing for a win of the division AND the prospects are looking quite good. This year is already different than 2012. And that is worth a lot.

One then has to wonder what the projection is like for Rodriguez. He will be 21 soon and you think he will stay in rookie ball after two seasons with the GC Twins? Yikes. E-Town is a small step for him.

Last year's crew didn't do so well overall, especially the pitchers. This year only one of the 10 players returns to the list. These are guys under the radar a bit, but could have breakout or breakthrough seasons (from bottom to top of system): 1. Dereck Rodriguez (EST, E-Town or CR): Rodriguez had a solid 2012 season when healthy. He is turning 21 in June and has been moved very cautiously in the Twins system (much like Nate Roberts). I have to imagine that he ends 2013 with Cedar Rapids, especially if Buxton and/or Kepler are promoted to Fort Myers. Rodriguez needs to cut out the strike outs to be successful. J.D. Williams (CR): Williams is the only one to return to the list this year. After an excellent 2011 season he turned in a bad one in low-A ball in 2012. He is off to a fast start in 2013. Speaking of fast, Williams is the one guy who might be able to take Byron Buxton in a foot race. Anyway, Williams is 22.5 years old and repeating at low-A is hopefully not a year-long process. He could be one of three OF for Cedar Rapids promoted to Fort Myers this year. Dalton Hicks (CR): The 23-year-old had a solid season in 2012 and is pounding the ball in 18 at bats this year. Could be a fast-riser and be another player challenging to make a move up to Fort Myers this season. Michael Gonzales (FM): Speaking of Fort Myers and first base, I have been pleased with Gonzales early numbers after an OK performance in 2012. He will finish the season in New Britain, undoubtedly. He turns 25 in June and has tremendous power, but he needs to make contact. Tom Stuifbergen (FM): Stuifbergen was a bright spot in the system a few years ago and in the 2009 WBC. He has battled injuries the past few seasons and the K/rate is falling. If he gets that back up this year, he could be ending the season in AAA. He turns 25 in September. Daniel Ortiz (NB): Twins fans may now know who Ortiz is after this spring's extended stay with the Twins in spring training. Ortiz has been consistent in his minor league career and the Twins have rewarded him with promotions. He really probably has fourth outfielder potential, but he can play all three positions out there and could develop some pop. In any event, he has more upside than Boggs, Ramirez, and Mastroianni. A.J. Achter (NB): Achter put up ridiculous numbers in 2012 in Fort Myers. He may be less well-known than Michael Tonkin, but he should rise with Tonkin in the system this year. He is part of a class of relievers (Tonkin, Watts, Pugh, Thielbar) who will challenge for spots in the bullpen this year and next. Dakota Watts (NB): Watts was solid in 2012 and in winter ball. He has some good velocity and will be knocking on the door this year for a promotion to AAA after he gets off the DL. He could likely be in the bullpen for the Twins in 2014. Bruce Pugh ®: Pugh was great in 2012 and will be up with the Twins at some point in 2013. He whiffs a lot of batters and could be a viable setup man down the road. Andrew Albers ®: Albers is the elder statesman of this group and I hope he gets a chance to make the big leagues soon. He is a crafty, command lefty who has been very good the past two seasons in the system. Likely long relief down the road. I wanted him to pair with Gibson too keep Gibson's inning load down, but Albers was forced into the rotation.

Last year's crew didn't do so well overall, especially the pitchers. This year only one of the 10 players returns to the list. These are guys under the radar a bit, but could have breakout or breakthrough seasons (from bottom to top of system): 1. Dereck Rodriguez (EST, E-Town or CR): Rodriguez had a solid 2012 season when healthy. He is turning 21 in June and has been moved very cautiously in the Twins system (much like Nate Roberts). I have to imagine that he ends 2013 with Cedar Rapids, especially if Buxton and/or Kepler are promoted to Fort Myers. Rodriguez needs to cut out the strike outs to be successful. J.D. Williams (CR): Williams is the only one to return to the list this year. After an excellent 2011 season he turned in a bad one in low-A ball in 2012. He is off to a fast start in 2013. Speaking of fast, Williams is the one guy who might be able to take Byron Buxton in a foot race. Anyway, Williams is 22.5 years old and repeating at low-A is hopefully not a year-long process. He could be one of three OF for Cedar Rapids promoted to Fort Myers this year. Dalton Hicks (CR): The 23-year-old had a solid season in 2012 and is pounding the ball in 18 at bats this year. Could be a fast-riser and be another player challenging to make a move up to Fort Myers this season. Michael Gonzales (FM): Speaking of Fort Myers and first base, I have been pleased with Gonzales early numbers after an OK performance in 2012. He will finish the season in New Britain, undoubtedly. He turns 25 in June and has tremendous power, but he needs to make contact. Tom Stuifbergen (FM): Stuifbergen was a bright spot in the system a few years ago and in the 2009 WBC. He has battled injuries the past few seasons and the K/rate is falling. If he gets that back up this year, he could be ending the season in AAA. He turns 25 in September. Daniel Ortiz (NB): Twins fans may now know who Ortiz is after this spring's extended stay with the Twins in spring training. Ortiz has been consistent in his minor league career and the Twins have rewarded him with promotions. He really probably has fourth outfielder potential, but he can play all three positions out there and could develop some pop. In any event, he has more upside than Boggs, Ramirez, and Mastroianni. A.J. Achter (NB): Achter put up ridiculous numbers in 2012 in Fort Myers. He may be less well-known than Michael Tonkin, but he should rise with Tonkin in the system this year. He is part of a class of relievers (Tonkin, Watts, Pugh, Thielbar) who will challenge for spots in the bullpen this year and next. Dakota Watts (NB): Watts was solid in 2012 and in winter ball. He has some good velocity and will be knocking on the door this year for a promotion to AAA after he gets off the DL. He could likely be in the bullpen for the Twins in 2014. Bruce Pugh ®: Pugh was great in 2012 and will be up with the Twins at some point in 2013. He whiffs a lot of batters and could be a viable setup man down the road. Andrew Albers ®: Albers is the elder statesman of this group and I hope he gets a chance to make the big leagues soon. He is a crafty, command lefty who has been very good the past two seasons in the system. Likely long relief down the road. I wanted him to pair with Gibson too keep Gibson's inning load down, but Albers was forced into the rotation.

Arcia can play right field. I mentioned awhile ago trading both Morneau and Parmelee, much like the Span and Revere trades. The return will be not as impressive, but it will still be significant (of course M & P have to be good this year). Colabello would be a placeholder for Sano or Harrison.