Shane Wahl

This is the time when people often make some wild trade speculations. I try not to do that here, but to propose who could be traded and what is realistic to get in return. The Twins can do very well here if they are willing to be sellers. The Twins are going to have to make some key decisions about who to keep and what they can get for 2014 and beyond. In what follows, I lay out some moves that could be made for the short and long term as the Twins try to figure out 2014 and the future. I am starting with top position players first as these guys should be first on the trading block. The big four are: --Josh Willingham (rationale: Arcia) --Justin Morneau (rationale: stop gaps in Colabello and Parmelee, could be re-signed anyway) --Trevor Plouffe (rationale: don't want to part ways, but Sano sticking at third or another stop gap player to fill in here makes Plouffe a good asset to trade) --Ryan Doumit (rationale: Herrmann and Pinto) Relevant playoff contenders with low OPS at these positions: --3B: New York Yankees (.615), Pittsburgh Pirates (.638) --1B: New York Yankees (.696), Tampa Bay Rays (.800, but falling rapidly) --C: Cincinnati Reds (.617), Baltimore Orioles (.634), New York Yankees (.640) --LF: New York Yankees (.660) --DH: Tampa Bay Rays (.682), Baltimore Orioles (.700), New York Yankees (.709). As is clear, the New York Yankees have some holes all over as they deal with a number of injuries and some quickly fading stop-gap players. The Orioles and Rays also appear twice. Finally, two National teams make the list, but I am going to remove the Reds from consideration of Ryan Doumit, because Doumit's value seems to come from his ability to catch and fill in as the designated hitter. Some potential pairings would include: Willingham-Yankees Plouffe-Pirates, Yankees Doumit-Orioles, Yankees Morneau-Rays, Orioles, Yankees I realize that "top prospects" as in top 100 or even 200 overall are going to be off limits in exchange for these guys. But, being someone who analyzes the Twins system and has a "Top 60" list on a regular basis, I find a lot of value in players on individual team lists ranging from 11-30 quite often, especially given the volatility of such lists and the volatility of the grades that even Sickels places on players. So, here are five guys from each of the four teams above who are not on many team top ten lists and often fall between 12 and 20 or lower on such lists. For comparison's sake, in the Twins system this would mean players like Danny Santana, Tyler Duffey, Matt Hauser, Nate Roberts, Niko Goodrum, Danny Ortiz and the like. And several of those players have been on the rise from lower parts of the list over the past few years. New York Yankees: Nik Turley, LHP, starter, 23 (AA/AAA this year) 2013 AA: 4.90 ERA, 64.1 innings, 71/33 K/BB (AAA: 1.50, 1, 6.0, 4/3) Twins system: likely headed to New Britain Bryan Mitchell, LHP, starter, 22 (A+) 2013 A+: 4.74, 76.0, 62/34 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Dan Camarena, LHP, starter, 20 (A) 2013 A: 6.34, 49.2, 36/13 Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids Jose Ramirez, RHP, starter, 23 (AA/AAA) 2013 AA: 2.76, 42.1 50/15 (AAA: 4.50, 4.0 5/4) Twins system: likely headed to Rochester Nick Goody, RHP, reliever, 21 (A+) 2013 A+: 3.00, 3.0 3/2. 2012 A: 1.09, 24.2, 40/7) Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Baltimore Orioles: Tim Berry, LHP, starter, 22 (A+) 2013 A+: 4.54, 69.1, 66/17 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Zach Davies, RHP, starter, 20 (A+) 2013 A+: 3.63, 74.1, 58/19 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers. Devin Jones, RHP, starter, 22 (AA) 2013 AA: 4.84, 67.0, 58/20 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Josh Hader, LHP, starter, 19 (A) 2013 A: 1.94, 60.1, 56/30 Twins system: likely head to Cedar Rapids. Torsten Boss, LH, 3B, 22 (A) 2013 A: 221, .251/.333/.405 (.738), 11/2/5, 23/49, 2-3 Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids. Tampa Bay Rays: Tyler Goeddel, RH, 3B/SS, 20 (A) 2013 A: 239, .252/.345/.398 (.743), 6/6/4, 28/41, 13-17 Twins system: likely head to Cedar Rapids Brandon Martin, RH, SS, 19 (A) 2013 A: 50, .244/.280/.422 (.702), 2/0/2, 2/10, 0-1 Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids Felipe Rivero, LH, starter, 21, (A+) 2013 A+: 3.28, 61.1, 53/24 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Jeff Ames, RHP, starter, 22 (A) 2013 A: 2.47, 58.1 42/10 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Jake Hager, SS, 20 (A+) 2013 A+: 242, .290/.344/.353, 10/2/0, 18/36, 9-16 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers. Pittsburgh Pirates: Vic Black, RHP, reliever, 25 (AAA) 2013 AAA: 2.62, 24.0, 33/11 Twins system: likely headed to Rochester Nick Kingham, RHP, starter, 21 (A+/AA) 2013 A+: 3.09, 70, 75/14 Twins system: likely headed to New Britain Adrian Sampson, RHP, starter, 21 (A+) 2013 A+: 5.56, 66.1, 37/12 (2012 numbers in A ball included a 9.3/9 K rate) Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Max Moroff, SH, SS, 20 (A) 2013 A: 248, .228/.350/.351 (.701), 9/1/5, 39/40, 4-9 Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids Alex Dickerson, LH, 1B/RF, 23 (AA) 2013 AA: 216, .238/.285/.417 (.702) 17/2/5, 13/51, 3-5 Twins system: likely headed to New Britain There are 20 players of varying worth and perfomance, but I think the Twins should mostly focus on pitching. Would I trade all four? Likely, yes. The return that would be nice is a couple of starting pitchers, one reliever, and one infielder. Regardless, I think this casts some reality over the trade outlook for these players. That reality is not bleak by any means.

This is the time when people often make some wild trade speculations. I try not to do that here, but to propose who could be traded and what is realistic to get in return. The Twins can do very well here if they are willing to be sellers. The Twins are going to have to make some key decisions about who to keep and what they can get for 2014 and beyond. In what follows, I lay out some moves that could be made for the short and long term as the Twins try to figure out 2014 and the future. I am starting with top position players first as these guys should be first on the trading block. The big four are: --Josh Willingham (rationale: Arcia) --Justin Morneau (rationale: stop gaps in Colabello and Parmelee, could be re-signed anyway) --Trevor Plouffe (rationale: don't want to part ways, but Sano sticking at third or another stop gap player to fill in here makes Plouffe a good asset to trade) --Ryan Doumit (rationale: Herrmann and Pinto) Relevant playoff contenders with low OPS at these positions: --3B: New York Yankees (.615), Pittsburgh Pirates (.638) --1B: New York Yankees (.696), Tampa Bay Rays (.800, but falling rapidly) --C: Cincinnati Reds (.617), Baltimore Orioles (.634), New York Yankees (.640) --LF: New York Yankees (.660) --DH: Tampa Bay Rays (.682), Baltimore Orioles (.700), New York Yankees (.709). As is clear, the New York Yankees have some holes all over as they deal with a number of injuries and some quickly fading stop-gap players. The Orioles and Rays also appear twice. Finally, two National teams make the list, but I am going to remove the Reds from consideration of Ryan Doumit, because Doumit's value seems to come from his ability to catch and fill in as the designated hitter. Some potential pairings would include: Willingham-Yankees Plouffe-Pirates, Yankees Doumit-Orioles, Yankees Morneau-Rays, Orioles, Yankees I realize that "top prospects" as in top 100 or even 200 overall are going to be off limits in exchange for these guys. But, being someone who analyzes the Twins system and has a "Top 60" list on a regular basis, I find a lot of value in players on individual team lists ranging from 11-30 quite often, especially given the volatility of such lists and the volatility of the grades that even Sickels places on players. So, here are five guys from each of the four teams above who are not on many team top ten lists and often fall between 12 and 20 or lower on such lists. For comparison's sake, in the Twins system this would mean players like Danny Santana, Tyler Duffey, Matt Hauser, Nate Roberts, Niko Goodrum, Danny Ortiz and the like. And several of those players have been on the rise from lower parts of the list over the past few years. New York Yankees: Nik Turley, LHP, starter, 23 (AA/AAA this year) 2013 AA: 4.90 ERA, 64.1 innings, 71/33 K/BB (AAA: 1.50, 1, 6.0, 4/3) Twins system: likely headed to New Britain Bryan Mitchell, LHP, starter, 22 (A+) 2013 A+: 4.74, 76.0, 62/34 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Dan Camarena, LHP, starter, 20 (A) 2013 A: 6.34, 49.2, 36/13 Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids Jose Ramirez, RHP, starter, 23 (AA/AAA) 2013 AA: 2.76, 42.1 50/15 (AAA: 4.50, 4.0 5/4) Twins system: likely headed to Rochester Nick Goody, RHP, reliever, 21 (A+) 2013 A+: 3.00, 3.0 3/2. 2012 A: 1.09, 24.2, 40/7) Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Baltimore Orioles: Tim Berry, LHP, starter, 22 (A+) 2013 A+: 4.54, 69.1, 66/17 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Zach Davies, RHP, starter, 20 (A+) 2013 A+: 3.63, 74.1, 58/19 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers. Devin Jones, RHP, starter, 22 (AA) 2013 AA: 4.84, 67.0, 58/20 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Josh Hader, LHP, starter, 19 (A) 2013 A: 1.94, 60.1, 56/30 Twins system: likely head to Cedar Rapids. Torsten Boss, LH, 3B, 22 (A) 2013 A: 221, .251/.333/.405 (.738), 11/2/5, 23/49, 2-3 Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids. Tampa Bay Rays: Tyler Goeddel, RH, 3B/SS, 20 (A) 2013 A: 239, .252/.345/.398 (.743), 6/6/4, 28/41, 13-17 Twins system: likely head to Cedar Rapids Brandon Martin, RH, SS, 19 (A) 2013 A: 50, .244/.280/.422 (.702), 2/0/2, 2/10, 0-1 Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids Felipe Rivero, LH, starter, 21, (A+) 2013 A+: 3.28, 61.1, 53/24 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Jeff Ames, RHP, starter, 22 (A) 2013 A: 2.47, 58.1 42/10 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Jake Hager, SS, 20 (A+) 2013 A+: 242, .290/.344/.353, 10/2/0, 18/36, 9-16 Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers. Pittsburgh Pirates: Vic Black, RHP, reliever, 25 (AAA) 2013 AAA: 2.62, 24.0, 33/11 Twins system: likely headed to Rochester Nick Kingham, RHP, starter, 21 (A+/AA) 2013 A+: 3.09, 70, 75/14 Twins system: likely headed to New Britain Adrian Sampson, RHP, starter, 21 (A+) 2013 A+: 5.56, 66.1, 37/12 (2012 numbers in A ball included a 9.3/9 K rate) Twins system: likely headed to Fort Myers Max Moroff, SH, SS, 20 (A) 2013 A: 248, .228/.350/.351 (.701), 9/1/5, 39/40, 4-9 Twins system: likely headed to Cedar Rapids Alex Dickerson, LH, 1B/RF, 23 (AA) 2013 AA: 216, .238/.285/.417 (.702) 17/2/5, 13/51, 3-5 Twins system: likely headed to New Britain There are 20 players of varying worth and perfomance, but I think the Twins should mostly focus on pitching. Would I trade all four? Likely, yes. The return that would be nice is a couple of starting pitchers, one reliever, and one infielder. Regardless, I think this casts some reality over the trade outlook for these players. That reality is not bleak by any means.

Both should be up, pronto. Gibson should get some MLB work in and Albers should get a look so that he can be viewed as the Swarzak successor (a left-handed long reliever with a righty prominent rotation makes sense, and he can also be a situational LOOGY in the 6th or 7th innings when not getting much work).

The Phillies, Rockies, Blue Jays, Padres, Dodgers, Pirates, and Yankees all have sub .700 OPS at third base this year. The Pirates (.642) and Yankees (.615 and with question marks all over regarding A-Rod, Youk, and rookies) are two lowest. I would ask them about Plouffe.

Of all the people to read and comment, it had to be you. Part of the point is that Solarte would likely be in the majors if he were not blocked. Meanwhile Dozier has little to compete with. But keep on making "points" that just amount to sarcastic assclownery.

In the 2011 season, the New Britain Rock Cats featured a dynamic lineup for the second half of the season which consisted primarily of Brian Dozier (SS), Chris Herrmann (C/LF), Chris Parmelee (1B/RF), Joe Benson (CF), and Yangervis Solarte (2B/LF). None of these five would see any AAA time in 2011 and only Parmelee and Benson saw September action with the Twins. After the season, the Twins committed to Brian Dozier going forward and Yangervis Solarte left as a minor league free agent, signing with the Texas organization. Here I would like to compare Dozier with Solarte. First they are physically similar, being 5'11" and about 190 pounds. They are both now in their age 26 seasons, with Solarte actually being almost two months younger than Dozier. Solarte is a switch-hitter who has played most of his time at second base but has seen some time in left field, at third base, and at shortstop. In that 2011 season, Solarte found his groove and posted a .329/.367/.466 (.834) line with 36 doubles, 3 triples, and 7 homers. He didn't walk (24) or strike out (38) much. Dozier was stellar for New Britain, posting a .318/.384/.502 (.885) line in about 2/3 of the season. Since that time, Dozier has found himself with the Twins for what amounts to close to a full season now with a demotion to AAA in 2012 where he struggled. Dozier is the primary second baseman for the Twins, almost by default, though his defense there has been great. Solarte has been in AAA for the Rangers organization ever since and is doing well this year in particular. His slash is .296/.337/.440 (.777) and has 12 doubles and 8 homers. He has been a super utility player, playing the three skilled infield positions and left field while posting decent numbers at all of those positions defensively. While Dozier has been handed a job, Solarte has the great misfortune of being in an organization with Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, and Mike Olt. Solarte has performed well in AAA and looks projectable for the majors, but is extremely blocked. Meanwhile, Bran Dozier's career is hanging almost exclusively on a combination of his defensive abilities at second base and the fact that there is no one better, somehow, to take his position. If only the Twins had sweetened the deal for Solarte either by showing commitment to him with either a AAA promotion in 2011 or a September call-up, or by offering more money to stick around and re-sign with the organization. It looks like it would have served both Solarte and the Twins well.

In the 2011 season, the New Britain Rock Cats featured a dynamic lineup for the second half of the season which consisted primarily of Brian Dozier (SS), Chris Herrmann (C/LF), Chris Parmelee (1B/RF), Joe Benson (CF), and Yangervis Solarte (2B/LF). None of these five would see any AAA time in 2011 and only Parmelee and Benson saw September action with the Twins. After the season, the Twins committed to Brian Dozier going forward and Yangervis Solarte left as a minor league free agent, signing with the Texas organization. Here I would like to compare Dozier with Solarte. First they are physically similar, being 5'11" and about 190 pounds. They are both now in their age 26 seasons, with Solarte actually being almost two months younger than Dozier. Solarte is a switch-hitter who has played most of his time at second base but has seen some time in left field, at third base, and at shortstop. In that 2011 season, Solarte found his groove and posted a .329/.367/.466 (.834) line with 36 doubles, 3 triples, and 7 homers. He didn't walk (24) or strike out (38) much. Dozier was stellar for New Britain, posting a .318/.384/.502 (.885) line in about 2/3 of the season. Since that time, Dozier has found himself with the Twins for what amounts to close to a full season now with a demotion to AAA in 2012 where he struggled. Dozier is the primary second baseman for the Twins, almost by default, though his defense there has been great. Solarte has been in AAA for the Rangers organization ever since and is doing well this year in particular. His slash is .296/.337/.440 (.777) and has 12 doubles and 8 homers. He has been a super utility player, playing the three skilled infield positions and left field while posting decent numbers at all of those positions defensively. While Dozier has been handed a job, Solarte has the great misfortune of being in an organization with Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, and Mike Olt. Solarte has performed well in AAA and looks projectable for the majors, but is extremely blocked. Meanwhile, Bran Dozier's career is hanging almost exclusively on a combination of his defensive abilities at second base and the fact that there is no one better, somehow, to take his position. If only the Twins had sweetened the deal for Solarte either by showing commitment to him with either a AAA promotion in 2011 or a September call-up, or by offering more money to stick around and re-sign with the organization. It looks like it would have served both Solarte and the Twins well.

I messed up, Oldgoat. I know. I thought about it before posting. Anyway. Officially done. Smacked.

And he doubled tonight. Good god. What are you even talking about? Full stop. Over.

This should be both the first and LAST response to you: No.

I am not that high on him because he is obviously moving to first base and there are some issues with his game that tells me he is going to be Plouffe-esque in terms of power . . . and everything else. The Rockies aren't wavering. They want the Helton replacement. Stewart will be there for the Twins and that is good. The draft, however, is about rounds 2-20 or so.

B Richard, I am probably just going to do an overall blog post about the rest of the positions, and then one on pitching. I appreciate your interest, but no one else gives a rat's ass. It takes a lot of time to do this and there is just one other person interested. Thank you, though.

I find it just terrible to sell this draft as a three-player draft. It's ridiculous to make the claim, especially with high school players involved. There are so many legit talented players found in later rounds (Rosario, Walker, etc.) that it makes this weird and bizarre meme (and I will call it that) utterly dumb. Kohl Stewart is very good. Sean Manaea is very good. Braden Shipley is very good. There are several hundred players who are very good right now. Some dozens will end up being MLB Great-to-below average. That's the story. By the way, McGuire would be a mistake and a half. It would be better to take Meadows than him. There's no bat. This could be Danny Lehmann+.

In judging my ability to note appropriate "minor" minor leaguers to watch, the first update must address the fundamental question: are these guys still worthy of keeping an eye on. I think the answer for each is yes, though I am starting to be concerned about a couple of these guys. With that, here is the update: Dereck Rodriguez (EST, E-Town or CR): Dereck is likely going to be in E-Town as soon as that season starts. J.D. Williams (CR): J.D. is in a slump at the moment but he has had a strong season and given his attitude and charisma is likely to be given every opportunity in the Twins system. Expect that to mean Fort Myers pretty soon. Dalton Hicks (CR): Hicks is really impressive. He is posting an OPS of .861 and will be deserving of a promotion to Fort Myers as well. Michael Gonzales (FM): An injury has halted a good start to the 2013 season for Gonzales. He turns 25 in 11 days and is on the A+ DL. Not sure what else to say. Would be just off my top-60 prospects list. Tom Stuifbergen (FM): Promoted to New Britain! The walks are incredibly low, but so are the strikeouts. If he can start getting more swings and misses, it would really help him. There is still a ways to go, but he's healthy. Think injury history similar to poor Nate Roberts, and you get the idea. Daniel Ortiz (NB): Ortiz is hitting better than he ever has and it is after a promotion to New Britain this year. He will be on the 40-man roster after this season. Could also be worthy of a September call-up to help the Twins decide on some matters in the offseason (Parmelee and Willingham, if they are still around). .792 OPS. A.J. Achter (NB): Achter has seen his walk rate balloon into the problematic realm, but the rest of his performance has been very good. He probably needs full seasoning at New Britain this year, for a chance to make the Twins next season. Dakota Watts (NB): An injury has limited his time to just 10 innings. And it hasn't been good. It really is just up and down with Watts from year to year. He seems to be only strong in even numbered years, so we'll go with that for next season. Bruce Pugh (NB): Totally ditto for Pugh. 17 innings, 12 walks and 12 strikeouts in AA after being demoted when he was terrible for Rochester. Hopefully he gets it worked out . . . for next year. Andrew Albers ®: Albers is pitching his way towards a look with the Twins this year. His strikeout rate has actually improved in AAA this season and he has still kept the walks down fairly low. He gives up hits and can get smacked once in awhile, but he may be the best AAA option for promotion to the Twins not named Kyle Gibson.

In judging my ability to note appropriate "minor" minor leaguers to watch, the first update must address the fundamental question: are these guys still worthy of keeping an eye on. I think the answer for each is yes, though I am starting to be concerned about a couple of these guys. With that, here is the update: Dereck Rodriguez (EST, E-Town or CR): Dereck is likely going to be in E-Town as soon as that season starts. J.D. Williams (CR): J.D. is in a slump at the moment but he has had a strong season and given his attitude and charisma is likely to be given every opportunity in the Twins system. Expect that to mean Fort Myers pretty soon. Dalton Hicks (CR): Hicks is really impressive. He is posting an OPS of .861 and will be deserving of a promotion to Fort Myers as well. Michael Gonzales (FM): An injury has halted a good start to the 2013 season for Gonzales. He turns 25 in 11 days and is on the A+ DL. Not sure what else to say. Would be just off my top-60 prospects list. Tom Stuifbergen (FM): Promoted to New Britain! The walks are incredibly low, but so are the strikeouts. If he can start getting more swings and misses, it would really help him. There is still a ways to go, but he's healthy. Think injury history similar to poor Nate Roberts, and you get the idea. Daniel Ortiz (NB): Ortiz is hitting better than he ever has and it is after a promotion to New Britain this year. He will be on the 40-man roster after this season. Could also be worthy of a September call-up to help the Twins decide on some matters in the offseason (Parmelee and Willingham, if they are still around). .792 OPS. A.J. Achter (NB): Achter has seen his walk rate balloon into the problematic realm, but the rest of his performance has been very good. He probably needs full seasoning at New Britain this year, for a chance to make the Twins next season. Dakota Watts (NB): An injury has limited his time to just 10 innings. And it hasn't been good. It really is just up and down with Watts from year to year. He seems to be only strong in even numbered years, so we'll go with that for next season. Bruce Pugh (NB): Totally ditto for Pugh. 17 innings, 12 walks and 12 strikeouts in AA after being demoted when he was terrible for Rochester. Hopefully he gets it worked out . . . for next year. Andrew Albers ®: Albers is pitching his way towards a look with the Twins this year. His strikeout rate has actually improved in AAA this season and he has still kept the walks down fairly low. He gives up hits and can get smacked once in awhile, but he may be the best AAA option for promotion to the Twins not named Kyle Gibson.

Well it isn't clear that Chris Herrmann already fills that role as a spot starter in center field. But what is going to happen is that Thomas will not be good and they will waive him. This clears up room for promotions of actual real prospects in the system, so that is good.

Whoa. That is totally crazy.

Doumit is an interesting DH and second/third catcher option for some teams heading into the playoffs. Or maybe the same thing next year. I would look for Herrmann and Pinto to both be ending 2014 with the Twins.

Sad story. I hope it turns out better than how it sounds.

Hicks is guaranteed and they probably like Dozier's defense enough to keep him around. If Plouffe can just stay healthy, that would help him. Parmelee was messed with and now is in trouble.

Alex Wimmers, Randy Rosario, Kuo-hua Lo, and Felix Jorge are notable people off this list. I need to see how they do this year to put them somewhere. I have no idea what to do with Wimmers, in particular.

Kepler is likely starting after the short season starts and thus after the draft. Cedar Rapids is his place and I would expect J.D. Williams to move to Fort Myers at that time.

May has control issues, yes. I am not going to worry about those for the time being. He is chilling the long ball right now and I view that as an underrated thing. Anyway, I do not see May as a bullpen option at the moment, but I also see another full year minimum between AA and AAA. I think that he and Meyer arrive at the same point late next year. And I am fine with that.

Fantastic analysis. This is a very insightful thing. Um, can you pass this along to the Twins?