Shane Wahl

When you put it that way, damn. AA is going to be interesting, at least through June.

Coming into this year, there was hope that some prospects would "graduate" and move up to the Twins causing significant impact. Their names were Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, and Byron Buxton. 2014, then, would be a year of significant development in the rebuilding process. Sano was done for the entire season after Tommy John surgery. Buxton was up and down with injuries before a concussion ended his season (though he is going to the AFL). Meyer was inconsistent at times and, well, that is apparently enough for the Twins to keep him down in AAA. Given this story for these three players, it is hard to imagine how any kind of "prospect story" could unfold for the Twins in 2014, but it did. Dating back to 2011, I have rated Danny Santana and Kennys Vargas in my prospect lists, with Santana ranging from the low 30s to 15 going into 2014, and Vargas from around 50 to 16 going into 2014. In doing so, I had believed that both were going to be likely MLB contributors, at least for some time. Santana's speed and potential ability to stick at short guaranteed him a chance to make it. Vargas has tremendous power and a good overall bat and this would lead him to making the Twins eventually. I did not expect both of them to make this kind of impact, and certainly not this soon. Santana has been undeniably impressive with that bat, but also with his shift to CF, a position he hadn't really played since 2011 in Beloit. CF was always just an additional position that he could fit into given his speed and defensive ability. Coming into 2014, it actually looked like Santana was destined for second base, a position that is pretty much locked down now by Brian Dozier and his 20/20 capacity. For Santana to be playing CF and SS while posting a line of .320/.358/.475 (.832) in 360 plate appearances. He has 19 doubles, 6 triples, and 7 homers, while walking 17 times, striking out 73 times, and stealing 15 out of 19 bases. These numbers dwarf the .273/.317/.391 (.708) career minor league numbers, though the extra base hits and K/BB numbers are not that out of whack. He is simply making better contact and getting more singles. Some of this might have to do with the development of smart two-strike hitting, but that is only speculation on my part. Note the title of this article as for 2015. The long term role for Santana beyond that is not under speculation. Maybe he doesn't work out defensively at short and yet his bat requires a position somewhere. 3B, LF, and RF, might be further positions to add to his repertoire. This problem has always been there, but it is a good thing that he has returned to playing CF. Vargas is locked in as a DH and 1B. In 162 plate appearances he has produced a .303/.321/.493 (.814) line. He has smacked 8 doubles and homers, while walking 4 times and striking out 40 times. Rest assured this K/BB rate is nowhere near his career minor league rate that is basically 1/2 instead of 1/10. Unlike Santana, Vargas isn't drastically over performing his career minor league numbers. The offense for Vargas is legitimate and sustainable. It will be interesting to see if he can improve defensively enough to be an actual backup first baseman behind Mauer. I would imagine that he can do so given his desire to learn and adapt. Santana and Vargas have been great surprises this season and serve as a solid foundation with Mauer and Dozier as we wait for the other prospects to arrive.

I have posted already about 25 and 40-man rosters. But I am not all that interested in adding anyone other than maybe a top 5ish FA SP. 2015 is another year of not making the playoffs, but it must be a year of figuring out the youth movement so as to then make the proper moves in 2016 and beyond. I go with Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann, Mauer, Vargas, Dozier, Santana, Plouffe, Escobar, Schafer, Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee/Nunez/Romero/Beresford (I still like those latter two) Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, Nolasco, May, Darnell/Achter, Oliveros, Pressly, Tonkin, C. Johnson (seriously), Fien, Perkins Note: that I am interested in dealing Swarzak, Duensing, Thielbar, and Fien (though I list him on the roster and would replace with Guerra). Coming up with specific replacements is hard when considering trading relievers, especially in the offseason. I think they could all bring back organizational top 30-50 prospects and if said prospects are young (like under 23 young), then it would be worth it. The Twins bullpen is going to be stacked very, very soon. Burdi, Z. Jones, Reed, Peterson, etc. are just ridiculously good right now.

Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann Mauer Dozier Santana Plouffe Escobar Schafer Hicks Arcia Vargas somebody else (Romero, Beresford, Parmelee, Nunez, FA) Hughes Gibson Nolasco Meyer May Darnell/somebody Oliveros/Achter Pressly Tonkin Thielbar Fien Perkins Likely 25-man roster. Likely 80 wins next season.

I get a little depressed about Meyer when reading this. That is not the intent, I know, but it is alarming. Berrios falls right into the Gibson-2013 and Meyer-2014 trap here in 2015. Innings limit but most (or all) in the minors. Given injuries, I think teams need to move pitchers faster through their systems to get value when they can. Berrios is a perfect example of that. It's 2016 for him.

No. 1 really should be Walker. Vavra has no future.

I haven't read any of these comments on this article, but the general response from the other one was irrational. I am not insulting anyone. Want to make that clear. There isn't a whole lot to be done with this roster, at least not until we see it in full for awhile next year. People seem to jump on this "same roster, same result" train and it is just irrational. Young players can get better. Period. There's some serious youth on the Twins roster right now and some of those young players are not the ones that we expected to be there right now. I have always liked Danny Santana, but this was nowhere near expected. I have always liked Kennys Vargas, but this was nowhere near expected. Sano and Buxton are going to happen. To worry otherwise is to despair over nothing right now. Plouffe has stabled as an average player overall. Escobar is good. Arcia and Pinto are going to hit (though Arcia is clearly going to need some shift in approach). And there's still Mauer and Dozier. Hughes is (as predicted) good. Gibson has improved a lot. There is good reason to think that May will as well. Let's see about Nolasco, though, there has to be a breaking point next year with this guy (I was only ok with his signing AFTER Hughes was acquired for so cheapish). Meyer needs to be in the rotation out of ST. Think about a rotation of Hughes-Gibson-Nolasco-May-Meyer with Milone as a sixth option for a second. The sixth option is a legitimate 4-5 starter . . . for the first time in years for this team! I am a prospect nerd so I am biased towards development, but it still is true that the youth movement is arriving and the Twins need to stick with it right now.

Bernier isn't going to be good. I don't understand not promoting Romero instead. As far as Polanco is concerned, he will definitely need more time defensively, at the least. He is destined to start 2015 at New Britain. That's quite good. The September Twins INF thing is changed. Now Santana must get some time at SS, so the Twins also don't want to promote.

Pinto and Herrmann were hitting very well. Bernier is getting rewarded, though one would think that Romero should be rewarded as well/instead. The pitching additions make perfect sense.

Beresford and Romero should be rewarded. Beresford is really consistent (if only he were a pitcher!) and Romero has hit really well for two years in a row. I don't care if he only starts 5 or 6 games. Achter and Oliveros deserve it too. And Oliveros is very likely to be a good setup man.

Note that I am not in favor of trading prospects right now. At least not the very top, clearly. That said, redundancy could be a factor, and that is why I mention Rosario, Harrison, T. Jones, and Duffey.

I don't know about all of this. This year is indeed ending differently than the last few. Santana and Vargas have arrived, Arcia and Escobar are developing. All four are 25 or younger. Dozier is now for sure a very good player. Mauer is hitting finally. May will get the kinks out. Meyer will be a Twin next year. Sano too. It's possible that Buxton, Polanco, and even Berrios may as well. Pinto is going to be on this roster next year. Trading him seems bad. The 25-man roster I proposed is a .500 team, I think, and then you add in Meyer, Sano, and possibly few others. I would be much more interested in throwing money at 2 players at the end of next year and probably not this year unless it really is a top pitcher.

For people talking trades, it seems to me that the clearest contenders to be traded from depth are Eddie Rosario, Travis Harrison, Tyler Jones, and Tyler Duffey. One of those position players and one of those pitchers might get you something nice (an LF or an SP).

Uh, this current roster is not responsible for another 90 loss season. The Twins are 10-13 in August, I think, and would be 11-12 if not for Perkins blowing last night's save. And the point is that the young guys are going to be better overall. Nolasco simply can't be this terrible again and they are going to be adding Meyer.

Thorpe and Berrios are major bright lights. Berrios starts 2015 in AA and should be in line for 2016 Twins starting rotation. Thorpe could be there by 2017. Turner is going to have to prove himself at AA in 2015. I am less scared about him than I used to be, though.

Yes, exactly. I would like the following to happen: the Twins refrain from spending big this offseason unless it is on one of the top 5 pitching free agents. So, no spending to replace LF. Wait and save. That means that money should be SAVED now in order to be spent when NEEDED when the team is competitive for real. Just finally, finally, go with the youth movement. 2015 opening day roster barring trades and injuries but dealing/releasing where noted (and I don't care about my consistency over the past month!): C: Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann 1B: Mauer, Vargas 2B: Dozier (Escobar, Santana, Beresford) SS: Escobar (Santana, Beresford) 3B: Plouffe (Escobar, Beresford) LF: Hicks (yes, Hicks), (Ortiz, Herrmann) CF: Santana (until Buxton, then decisions need to be made), (Hicks) RF: Arcia (Ortiz, Herrmann, Hicks) DH: Vargas, (Pinto) Bench (generally): Pinto, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz Yep. Gone from this are Parmelee, Nunez, and Schafer. Trade for C level prospects who are under 22 and that is a win. All three of those guys could serve as major league bench players, but not for the Twins now. Starting rotation: Hughes Gibson Nolasco Meyer (or Milone) May (or Milone) Bullpen: I still would like some trading to be done as there is just no reason to pay Swarzak and Duensing any more money, for instance. Also, I am surprised Fien wasn't dealt, but for these purposes we will keep him. Perkins Fien C. Johnson Oliveros Tonkin Thielbar Deduno/Darnell/K. Johnson I also think Guerra and Achter could compete here. The big question is going to be: when do Burdi and Z. Jones arrive? Those two will serve as dominant setup men (and there needs to be another dominant lefty somewhere).

I am recalibrating some of my thoughts for 2015. I think (now) that something like this should happen: I would like the following to happen: the Twins refrain from spending big this offseason unless it is on one of the top 5 pitching free agents. So, no spending to replace LF. Wait and save. That means that money should be SAVED now in order to be spent when NEEDED when the team is competitive for real. Just finally, finally, go with the youth movement. 2015 opening day roster barring trades and injuries but dealing/releasing where noted (and I don't care about my consistency over the past month!): C: Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann 1B: Mauer, Vargas 2B: Dozier (Escobar, Santana, Beresford) SS: Escobar (Santana, Beresford) 3B: Plouffe (Escobar, Beresford) LF: Hicks (yes, Hicks), (Ortiz, Herrmann) CF: Santana (until Buxton, then decisions need to be made), (Hicks) RF: Arcia (Ortiz, Herrmann, Hicks) DH: Vargas, (Pinto) Bench (generally): Pinto, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz Yep. Gone from this are Parmelee, Nunez, and Schafer. Trade for C level prospects who are under 22 and that is a win. All three of those guys could serve as major league bench players, but not for the Twins now. Starting rotation: Hughes Gibson Nolasco Meyer (or Milone) May (or Milone) Bullpen: I still would like some trading to be done as there is just no reason to pay Swarzak and Duensing any more money, for instance. Also, I am surprised Fien wasn't dealt, but for these purposes we will keep him. Perkins Fien C. Johnson Oliveros Tonkin Thielbar Deduno/Darnell/K. Johnson I also think Guerra and Achter could compete here. The big question is going to be: when do Burdi and Z. Jones arrive? Those two will serve as dominant setup men (and there needs to be another dominant lefty somewhere). I absolutely refuse to believe that this team as is won't be pretty good. That is, 80+ win good. I would like to see the Twins now develop the young talent, see who fits and who doesn't and then spend quite lavishly eventually on where they need to do so. I am pushing some guys here who many people might not like: Herrmann, Ortiz, and Beresford. But I prefer promoting those guys then adding in guys of similar value from the top on down (good lord . . . the Twins and their 4th OF adventures). Also, these guys are clearly also not deprived of value if they get sent back down to AAA when Buxton and Sano arrive. In such a scenario, Hicks might become the 4th OF, Santana moves to short, Escobar super utilities, and Plouffe utilities. All in all, the rebuild is now close to full swing. Buxton, Sano, Rosario (where he fits, time will tell) Meyer, Burdi, and Z. Jones are the next wave.

I would have thought Levi Michael would have been going for sure, but that was without considering Rosario being allowed to go. I guess I don't even know why they would bother sending Burdi as opposed to someone like Cole Johnson or Adrian Salcedo. I guess I like the Rogers, Melotakis, and Adam selections, but the 7th could be resolved immediately with Johnson or Salcedo.

OH man I just lost a long reply to this by hitting the arrow on my keyboard to go back. Blergh. Blergh and a half. Anyway, it hinges on two things: the real status of his catching ability and the possibility of learning a corner OF position. The DHing can still happen 1-2 times a week, spelling Mauer or Vargas. The (fairly remote) possibility of a Pinto/Arcia true platoon in RF is pretty interesting though.

I didn't know that about Landa, R. Rosario, and F. Romero!!!

SD, I can't think of anyone who really fits the A ball Kepler/Polanco role this year. Michael was just promoted to AA. And man, he is doing well. I doubt that he would be selected, but a good AFL (has to go there, right?) could change that. Salcedo is someone I have always liked. It amazes me that after everything he has been through he is basically right where he should be in AA (though no longer starting). I think he might be safe from selection this time around, though.

Well, putting Rosario on the 40-man roster is still a no-brainer. He is still very young and at AA.

No one needs to preach to this choir about Pelfrey! It is just another Blackburn situation right now. Maybe he replaces Deduno (if they are paying for Pelfrey anyway!). Some good points above. I would probably keep Parmelee out of those three.

Soon it will be time to consider who should be dropped and added to the Twins 40-man roster for next season. This time there could be more of an upheaval than normal as the Twins hopefully look to enter the next phase of the organization's rebuilding project. Some opening remarks I have to believe that the following players could or should be removed from the 40-man roster for next season: Jared Burton Sam Deduno Brian Duensing Edgar Ibarra Yohan Pino Anthony Swarzak Caleb Thielbar Eric Fryer Chris Colabello Pedro Florimon Eduardo Nunez/Chris Parmelee/Jordan Schafer I am sure that there are legitimate reasons for keeping each of these players except for Burton and likely Colabello. There are three lefty relievers in this group, but none of them are really overwhelming talents. Most of these players are getting on in age and there are a number of younger replacements waiting in the wings. The triple slash at the end would probably depend on what is valued most: a righty bat, a lefty bat, or speed. Supposing no new additions Let's suppose for now (because the speculation derails this entire issue) that the Twins do not add any free agents to compete for 40-man roster space (though James Shields or Ervin Santana could be nice additions). This is probably unlikely because it would seem that the Twins would add somebody but it doesn't really matter for now, especially since I am leaving one spot open. Two spots taken back Add Mike Pelfrey back from the 60-day DL (that ridiculous contract is going to mean he is involved somehow, likely as a long relief option replacing Deduno) Also keep in mind that the Twins might like to keep a spot open on the 40 man, so we are talking about adding nine players to the 40 man roster. Keeping one spot open makes sense for making waiver claims or other transactions without having to remove someone else already on the roster. Top eligible players for consideration Here are 21 players that I would say are the most likely to be considered as additions: A.J. Achter, Jason Adam, James Beresford, Sean Gilmartin, Niko Goodrum, Deolis Guerra, Tyler Jones, Cole Johnson, Mike Kvasnicka, Brett Lee, Aderlin Mejia, Alex Meyer, Levi Michael, Lester Oliveros, Danny Ortiz, Deibinson Romero, Eddie Rosario, Adrian Salcedo, Miguel Sano, Jason Wheeler, and Alex Wimmers Sano, Rosario, and Meyer are locks, so this knocks it down to six of the remaining 18 players. I think that some of these players are quite safe from being taken in the rule 5 due to either age, level, or performance issues (or both/all). They are: Goodrum, Kvasnicka, and Mejia. Another group that would seem to be safe would be Beresford, Lee, Michael, Salcedo, Wheeler, and Wimmers. The first group are players with glaring issues to be worked out and the second group, while having some big names, just doesn't have anyone who I would think teams would use for a 25-man roster spot for the season. Salcedo and Wimmers could be exceptions, but that would be pretty risky for teams to stick them in the bullpen for an entire season. Who's left? There are then nine players left to consider: Achter, Adam, Gilmartin, Guerra, Johnson, Jones, Oliveros, Ortiz, and Romero. The Twins are likely going to just risk Romero again and not worry if he gets selected. He is a good hitter, but is behind Plouffe and Sano right now. I also think that the Twins keeping Tyler Jones in Fort Myers will keep him safe as teams would be shy from taking that risk. There are then seven players to consider. On the Johan Santana trade principle, I think the Twins protect Guerra and give him a rotation spot trial in spring training. A.J. Achter, then, is the most likely candidate to be risked since the Twins seemingly don't like him all that much. The Nine The nine players that I see the Twins adding are Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, Eddie Rosario, Sean Gilmartin, Danny Ortiz, Lester Oliveros, Cole Johnson, Deolis Guerra, and Jason Adam. There are two super prospects and one very good prospect. Gilmartin and Adam are solid 6th starter options who are still young and could improve. Ortiz is a 4th OF candidate for the Twins and for other teams, and the Twins cannot afford to lose any more OF prospects at the moment. Guerra is Johan trade material and on that principle alone should get a chance to replace a Jared Burton. Oliveros and Johnson (lefty) are striking people out this year and should be making the team out of spring training to replace Swarzak and Duensing. Personally, I like Beresford and Romero and would rather risk relievers, but I am trying to provide a balance here between what I would do and what the Twins will likely do. Conclusion I think this leaves the Twins in a good position. This would make for 39 players on the roster and sheds some aging replacement level players for actual prospects and actual young minor leaguers who could move up prospect lists. Lester Oliveros and Cole Johnson could join Michael Tonkin in anchoring the bullpen with Fien and Perkins (leaving Guerra and Pelfrey to fill the bullpen out). Sano, Meyer, and Rosario are close enough to not worry about option years at all. Danny Ortiz is a viable 4th OF option. Gilmartin and Adam provide depth for the starting rotation. There will be more changes coming if players like Byron Buxton, Nick Burdi, and J.O. Berrios emerge next season, but I think this provides a nice framework for understanding how the 40-man roster could shape up in the offseason.

I still can't get over this Dozier situation here. He was basically the only non-Mauer legit leadoff candidate until Danny Santana emerged. Santana emerging right now as a leadoff hitter doesn't mean that Dozier bats second. That's stupid. Dozier, right now, should bat third behind Mauer. Fifth and eventually sixth will be where he ends up, but for now, third please.