Shane Wahl

This concludes my 2013 blueprint. So far it has involved adding Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum as the two new additions to the team. It also would mean a return of Scott Baker on an incentive-laded deal, giving Anthony Slama a chance, and a wait-and-see approach with Kyle Gibson. In terms of position players, instead of worrying about who to trade, I have argued that having a good PH option for every game is actually a good idea, whether it be (by rotation) Parmelee, Morneau, Mauer, Doumit, Willingham, Span, or Revere. Finally, I have claimed that Chris Herrmann should be with the Twins next season since his ceiling is not as a starting catcher and it doesn't matter anyway with Mauer and Doumit. The Twins might as well just use him now to maximize their roster (his case is different than Hicks and Arcia). Now, what matters most is the future of the organization, not just what happens in 2013. I do believe that Hicks and Arcia are truly legitimate MLB-soon-to-be-ready players. I also believe that Joe Benson could easily have a bounce-back season at AAA and that means that 3 OF are suddenly big-league ready. So, trading Span in the offseason is not the end of the world. If that were to happen, Aaron Hicks can be the replacement. Trading Ben Revere, to me, is the best option as I would like to see an OF of Span-Benson-Hicks in the future. That would also mean trading Josh Willingham, which I would not like to see at all until the 2013 trade deadline at the very earliest. The Twins have a RH power hitter . . . . that is something that cannot be ignored in its utter strangeness. That said, I would probably prefer that Willingham moves to DH after the Morneau era. With regard to Morneau, there is no way I would bring him back after the 2013 season. Trading him would have been good already, but there is certainly no way he should be around after this coming season. And that does not have to do simply with Parmelee, but also with Miguel Sano. I believe that the best place for Sano, eventually, is first base. And Sano's development is likely to continue steadily, so that by September 2014, it would make sense to call him up anyway. With regard to pitching. Marcum and Jackson would be signed for three year deals and would thus be certainly involved with the Twins return to success by 2014 and certainly by 2015. There are no real alternatives over the next few years as the Twins wait for Berrios, Boyd, Salcedo, Summers, and so forth. The Twins system is now above average again and will only be propelled higher by the 2013 draft and 3 top 70ish picks. I do have optimism about the franchise and see this time as a good recalibration. Rantz is gone. Plenty of average to incompetent coaches are gone or shifted around. Gardenhire and Anderson are on their last life. The system is being rebuilt and Joe Mauer is still great. 2011 was an injury disaster. 2012 was a starting rotation disaster. 2013 could bring another disaster, but I do doubt it. The future looks bright, especially if, you know, this blueprint is the actual plan . . .

This concludes my 2013 blueprint. So far it has involved adding Edwin Jackson and Shaun Marcum as the two new additions to the team. It also would mean a return of Scott Baker on an incentive-laded deal, giving Anthony Slama a chance, and a wait-and-see approach with Kyle Gibson. In terms of position players, instead of worrying about who to trade, I have argued that having a good PH option for every game is actually a good idea, whether it be (by rotation) Parmelee, Morneau, Mauer, Doumit, Willingham, Span, or Revere. Finally, I have claimed that Chris Herrmann should be with the Twins next season since his ceiling is not as a starting catcher and it doesn't matter anyway with Mauer and Doumit. The Twins might as well just use him now to maximize their roster (his case is different than Hicks and Arcia). Now, what matters most is the future of the organization, not just what happens in 2013. I do believe that Hicks and Arcia are truly legitimate MLB-soon-to-be-ready players. I also believe that Joe Benson could easily have a bounce-back season at AAA and that means that 3 OF are suddenly big-league ready. So, trading Span in the offseason is not the end of the world. If that were to happen, Aaron Hicks can be the replacement. Trading Ben Revere, to me, is the best option as I would like to see an OF of Span-Benson-Hicks in the future. That would also mean trading Josh Willingham, which I would not like to see at all until the 2013 trade deadline at the very earliest. The Twins have a RH power hitter . . . . that is something that cannot be ignored in its utter strangeness. That said, I would probably prefer that Willingham moves to DH after the Morneau era. With regard to Morneau, there is no way I would bring him back after the 2013 season. Trading him would have been good already, but there is certainly no way he should be around after this coming season. And that does not have to do simply with Parmelee, but also with Miguel Sano. I believe that the best place for Sano, eventually, is first base. And Sano's development is likely to continue steadily, so that by September 2014, it would make sense to call him up anyway. With regard to pitching. Marcum and Jackson would be signed for three year deals and would thus be certainly involved with the Twins return to success by 2014 and certainly by 2015. There are no real alternatives over the next few years as the Twins wait for Berrios, Boyd, Salcedo, Summers, and so forth. The Twins system is now above average again and will only be propelled higher by the 2013 draft and 3 top 70ish picks. I do have optimism about the franchise and see this time as a good recalibration. Rantz is gone. Plenty of average to incompetent coaches are gone or shifted around. Gardenhire and Anderson are on their last life. The system is being rebuilt and Joe Mauer is still great. 2011 was an injury disaster. 2012 was a starting rotation disaster. 2013 could bring another disaster, but I do doubt it. The future looks bright, especially if, you know, this blueprint is the actual plan . . .

With regard to Parmelee, even if everyone is healthy, there can still be a rotation with Doumit, Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Span, and Revere. They have 7 guys for 6 spots this way. Maybe Parmelee doesn't start in the first week, but would thereafter. I realize that this rotation is not very lefty/righty friendly though. Herrmann had better be done with AA. If they send him back there again, they are nuts. Anyway, it isn't clear to me that he has to have that kind of playing time if his major league playing time is going to be limited no matter what given the existence of Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit, and Josh Willingham. Herrmann is not going to be a starter in the league for awhile. This is a different scenario than Revere and Parmelee when we all talked about how they have to be up and playing every day or down and playing every day. And there is no real other option as a third catcher. Giving 150-200 at bats to Butera is a total waste. He is just a terrible offensive player and his defensive ability is often overblown. He is good at working with pitchers, though, so hence the whole AAA career I have planned for him . . . Now if the alternative would be to not carry a third catcher and have someone like Escobar up with the team, that would be ok.

They should sign Butera to a five-year deal to be the catcher at Rochester and mentor of upcoming pitching prospects! Here Drew, here's a $2 million/5 year deal. We won't pretend you are MLB-caliber anymore . . .

In Part Two of the 2013 blueprint, I discussed the pitching staff. Now . . . that problem has . . . .clearly been solved. So something much easier is in store. This is the lineup/bench I propose for the 2013 Twins Span CF Revere LF Mauer C Willingham RF Morneau 1B Plouffe 3B Doumit DH Dozier 2B Florimon Parmelee Carroll Mastroianni Herrmann The bench is meant to be a return to the "Thome bench." This means that the Twins would have either a good replacement already up with the team in case of injury or one good-great bat on the bench for every single game (pinch hitting for Florimon, Dozier, or possibly Revere. As it turns out, Chris Parmelee appears to be the odd man out for the first several games of the season, but he can be worked into the rotation to give optimal rest for six other guys, especially Mauer, Morneau, Doumit, and Willingham. I still prefer a Willingham-Revere positional flip, but this would still work even if they stayed where they are right now. Jamey Carroll might end up being the starter somewhere (I would say SS), but if not that just means he is a late-inning replacement and a backup at 3B, SS, and 2B, and thus getting plenty of at bats. I realize that putting Chris Herrmann on this roster flies in the face with what I have said about AA and AAA, but I also think that Herrmann's value for 2013 is with the Twins has Doumit-lite, certainly getting a chance to take over Doumit's role as Mauer's catching partner in the future. Butera can be given a nice little salary to be the AAA catcher, working with pitchers as they come up through the system. Maybe he can be called up if there is an injury and certainly in September. But there is no reason to have him on the Twins roster. Herrmann, in my view, belonged in AAA by mid-season 2012 at the latest anyway. He also adds LF depth (and likely can adapt to RF and even 1B). Mastroianni would return in his role as a backup for all three OF positions and a speedster on the bases. It might not be a bad idea to also get him 2B time in emergency situations (basically if Jamey Carroll becomes injured in a game). Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, and Evan Bigley would be the Rochester OF/DH, with perhaps Tosoni or Bigley trying out at 1B. Eduardo Escobar and Chris Colabello would be the other players at Rochester who could factor into the 2013 Twins roster. People have generally overlooked how successful the Twins were with this intact lineup during the middle of the year. This was essentially a .490 ballclub with the continuing pitching problems of relying on AAA pitchers. Adding Parmelee in a real sense does a number of things. It provides the Twins with a bench threat for every single game. It also provides rest for players so that they stay fresh. Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, and Doumit all fall into this category. Herrmann just needs to play with the Twins and provides insurance in the OF if the Twins start trading players from their starting OF. So we have the Twins 25-man roster? We are all set, right? Not really at all, and the final segment of this blueprint will address the future of the Twins, the 40-man roster, and some other comments on how I would act as a GM of this team.

In Part Two of the 2013 blueprint, I discussed the pitching staff. Now . . . that problem has . . . .clearly been solved. So something much easier is in store. This is the lineup/bench I propose for the 2013 Twins Span CF Revere LF Mauer C Willingham RF Morneau 1B Plouffe 3B Doumit DH Dozier 2B Florimon Parmelee Carroll Mastroianni Herrmann The bench is meant to be a return to the "Thome bench." This means that the Twins would have either a good replacement already up with the team in case of injury or one good-great bat on the bench for every single game (pinch hitting for Florimon, Dozier, or possibly Revere. As it turns out, Chris Parmelee appears to be the odd man out for the first several games of the season, but he can be worked into the rotation to give optimal rest for six other guys, especially Mauer, Morneau, Doumit, and Willingham. I still prefer a Willingham-Revere positional flip, but this would still work even if they stayed where they are right now. Jamey Carroll might end up being the starter somewhere (I would say SS), but if not that just means he is a late-inning replacement and a backup at 3B, SS, and 2B, and thus getting plenty of at bats. I realize that putting Chris Herrmann on this roster flies in the face with what I have said about AA and AAA, but I also think that Herrmann's value for 2013 is with the Twins has Doumit-lite, certainly getting a chance to take over Doumit's role as Mauer's catching partner in the future. Butera can be given a nice little salary to be the AAA catcher, working with pitchers as they come up through the system. Maybe he can be called up if there is an injury and certainly in September. But there is no reason to have him on the Twins roster. Herrmann, in my view, belonged in AAA by mid-season 2012 at the latest anyway. He also adds LF depth (and likely can adapt to RF and even 1B). Mastroianni would return in his role as a backup for all three OF positions and a speedster on the bases. It might not be a bad idea to also get him 2B time in emergency situations (basically if Jamey Carroll becomes injured in a game). Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, and Evan Bigley would be the Rochester OF/DH, with perhaps Tosoni or Bigley trying out at 1B. Eduardo Escobar and Chris Colabello would be the other players at Rochester who could factor into the 2013 Twins roster. People have generally overlooked how successful the Twins were with this intact lineup during the middle of the year. This was essentially a .490 ballclub with the continuing pitching problems of relying on AAA pitchers. Adding Parmelee in a real sense does a number of things. It provides the Twins with a bench threat for every single game. It also provides rest for players so that they stay fresh. Mauer, Willingham, Morneau, and Doumit all fall into this category. Herrmann just needs to play with the Twins and provides insurance in the OF if the Twins start trading players from their starting OF. So we have the Twins 25-man roster? We are all set, right? Not really at all, and the final segment of this blueprint will address the future of the Twins, the 40-man roster, and some other comments on how I would act as a GM of this team.

Yes, if the Twins DON'T spend $20 million on FA pitchers, the payroll starts dipping under 90 and down, down, down. I agree about replaceable talent. The Twins system has a lot of outfielders, long relievers, middle relievers, and likely first baseman (Parmelee, Vargas, and likely Sano).

Trade away talent for talent. Sounds like a zero sum game to me right now. The Twins signing and ADDING to their roster . . . which can mean trading them later in the year, is the recipe for success. If the Twins want to trade Swarzak, Bigley, and Burnett for some middle infield B-level prospect at AA, then that is another story . . .

By the way, a quick prediction: Yankees-Dempster, Red Sox-Haren, Dodgers-Peavy, Angels-Greinke, and Rangers-Sanchez

Glunn, I understand that point. I think that Jackson is harder to get in that regard. I would put Greinke, Dempster, A. Sanchez, Haren, and Peavy at the top of the list of the big spenders, even though it would be a mistake to give such contracts to Greinke and Peavy in particular. If those five go to 5 different teams (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Rangers, for example), then the market gets more interesting after that. Convincing players to come to the Twins has to involve a clear future in 2013 and beyond for success (telling X that the Twins are interested in Y, and vice versa, would be a good part of that). This blueprint would be what is communicated to potential free agents like Jackson and Marcum (and the blueprint isn't done yet). 3/30 is a baseline for Jackson, but MAY be high for Marcum. The Twins could spend 3/30 on Marcum and 3/42 on Jackson and that is only a $4 million/year increase from my plan and that means still under $100 million (+ for Baker incentives). Ervin Santana is not a terrible option. I do think that my blueprint, unfortunately, is at the top of the possible spectrum for the Twins to actually commit to and the likelihood is fairly low. Jackson and Santana is a bit more probable. Marcum and Santana more, Santana and Blanton more, etc. down to some horrible Jeremy Guthrie and Erik Bedard situation. I do think that they will add two pitchers though. Who they are is the big difference.

Haha, well yes. I am assuming certain things about him being targeted by Boston in a big way.

Had to edit that since I started writing it before Jackson's last start . . .

In part one of the blueprint, I laid out the Twins 2013 roster as I see it should be (disclaimer: this means that this is what the Twins *should* do, not a prediction as to what they *will* do). In part two, I focus more intensely on the pitching situation, and turn the pitching staff first for obviously reasons. I am not completely against trading away MLB players or even some prospects (lower levels) for MLB-ready or near MLB-ready pitching, but I do think there is a better way to go about it. My path for 2013 (and through 2015) is to sign Shaun Marcum and Edwin Jackson to, for example, 3 years and $30 million each. Marcum is about to turn 31 and has averaged 193 innings in seven seasons with Toronto and Milwaukee, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson just turned 29 and has been in the majors in some capacity for 10 seasons already. Early in his career it appears he was in over his head, but in 2011 he posted a 3.79 ERA and this year he had a 3.77 ERA (before a disastrous last start) and has pitched near 200 innings each season, combining for about a . . . 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson and Marcum are clearly very, very similar pitchers who have up eerily similar numbers. And their similarity will be refreshing after the mirror-imaged Blackburn, Pavano, and Marquis this year. I am not sure how the market is going to play out, but the Twins should be aggressive. The long-term salary projections for this team are quite favorable as it is the case that Morneau, Willingham, and Span are going to be replaced with much cheaper options in the coming years. With the subtraction of Nishioka's salary from my 2013 salary projection, $20 million for Marcum and Jackson leaves the salary at around $93-94 million. So, for those who say that the Twins would never sign two pitchers like this, maybe demanding that the Twins make such signings is a better use of time! Diamond-Jackson-Marcum at the top is dramatically better than what the Twins started out with in 2012. The general idea with the Rochester rotation would be Gibson limited to 5 innings and then 6 innings an outing in April and May respectively. If all goes well, he can be promoted. Walters, Bromberg, Vasquez, and Hernandez would join him while Baker gets rehab time. Speaking of Baker, Baker would get a base $2 million salary with huge incentive increases based on innings pitched and ERA. That salary would top out at $6 million. So the rotation, including Hendriks (who I still believe will prove to be a good pitcher, certainly worthy of a 4th or 5th spot in the Twins rotation) and Deduno (let's say), would be remarkably improved and there would again be depth at AAA, including Gibson and Baker. A healthy and good Gibson and the return of a good Baker would mean that Hendriks is back at AAA anyway (barring injury at the top). With regard to the bullpen, I am not an Anthony Swarzak fan for a variety of reasons, so the Twins should trade him for Big Foot and be done. I would give the LR role to Cole DeVries. The only thing I am not sure of is whether or not Deolis Guerra would clear waivers. He is out of options, and the Twins didn't bother giving him a September look for some insane reason. I still believe, of course, that Anthony Slama should be with the Twins. Guerra needs more time in AAA and Slama clearly does not, so he gets the nod. Alex Burnett has an option, and I think the Twins should use it immediately to get him to work on command and striking more batters out. I don't really trust him at all, but at least it is good that he has an option left. Tyler Robertson provides solid strikeout potential from the left side and has improved during the year. Casey Fien was a great surprise this year. I hope that this continues and he can serve as a strong middle reliever as basically Brian Duensing's other half. Speaking of Duensing, no more moving him into the rotation. Ever. I cannot understand why such a stupid move was made in 2012. A solid Fien and the Duensing-who-isn't-messed-with-by-incompetent-managing, provides a good 7th/8th foundation for Burton and Perkins. So the 2013 staff would look like this: Scott Diamond Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks (Baker/Gibson) Sam Deduno (Baker/Gibson) Cole DeVries Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra) Tyler Robertson Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins (other options throughout the year are Guerra, Burnett, Lester Oliveros, Caleb Thielbar, Luis Perdomo, and perhaps Dakota Watts and Bruce Pugh) Note: other free agent signings that I could live with: Ervin Santana, Joe Blanton, and perhaps even Joe Saunders. In part three, the focus will be on the position players and the notion that depth is a good thing.

In part one of the blueprint, I laid out the Twins 2013 roster as I see it should be (disclaimer: this means that this is what the Twins *should* do, not a prediction as to what they *will* do). In part two, I focus more intensely on the pitching situation, and turn the pitching staff first for obviously reasons. I am not completely against trading away MLB players or even some prospects (lower levels) for MLB-ready or near MLB-ready pitching, but I do think there is a better way to go about it. My path for 2013 (and through 2015) is to sign Shaun Marcum and Edwin Jackson to, for example, 3 years and $30 million each. Marcum is about to turn 31 and has averaged 193 innings in seven seasons with Toronto and Milwaukee, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson just turned 29 and has been in the majors in some capacity for 10 seasons already. Early in his career it appears he was in over his head, but in 2011 he posted a 3.79 ERA and this year he had a 3.77 ERA (before a disastrous last start) and has pitched near 200 innings each season, combining for about a . . . 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson and Marcum are clearly very, very similar pitchers who have up eerily similar numbers. And their similarity will be refreshing after the mirror-imaged Blackburn, Pavano, and Marquis this year. I am not sure how the market is going to play out, but the Twins should be aggressive. The long-term salary projections for this team are quite favorable as it is the case that Morneau, Willingham, and Span are going to be replaced with much cheaper options in the coming years. With the subtraction of Nishioka's salary from my 2013 salary projection, $20 million for Marcum and Jackson leaves the salary at around $93-94 million. So, for those who say that the Twins would never sign two pitchers like this, maybe demanding that the Twins make such signings is a better use of time! Diamond-Jackson-Marcum at the top is dramatically better than what the Twins started out with in 2012. The general idea with the Rochester rotation would be Gibson limited to 5 innings and then 6 innings an outing in April and May respectively. If all goes well, he can be promoted. Walters, Bromberg, Vasquez, and Hernandez would join him while Baker gets rehab time. Speaking of Baker, Baker would get a base $2 million salary with huge incentive increases based on innings pitched and ERA. That salary would top out at $6 million. So the rotation, including Hendriks (who I still believe will prove to be a good pitcher, certainly worthy of a 4th or 5th spot in the Twins rotation) and Deduno (let's say), would be remarkably improved and there would again be depth at AAA, including Gibson and Baker. A healthy and good Gibson and the return of a good Baker would mean that Hendriks is back at AAA anyway (barring injury at the top). With regard to the bullpen, I am not an Anthony Swarzak fan for a variety of reasons, so the Twins should trade him for Big Foot and be done. I would give the LR role to Cole DeVries. The only thing I am not sure of is whether or not Deolis Guerra would clear waivers. He is out of options, and the Twins didn't bother giving him a September look for some insane reason. I still believe, of course, that Anthony Slama should be with the Twins. Guerra needs more time in AAA and Slama clearly does not, so he gets the nod. Alex Burnett has an option, and I think the Twins should use it immediately to get him to work on command and striking more batters out. I don't really trust him at all, but at least it is good that he has an option left. Tyler Robertson provides solid strikeout potential from the left side and has improved during the year. Casey Fien was a great surprise this year. I hope that this continues and he can serve as a strong middle reliever as basically Brian Duensing's other half. Speaking of Duensing, no more moving him into the rotation. Ever. I cannot understand why such a stupid move was made in 2012. A solid Fien and the Duensing-who-isn't-messed-with-by-incompetent-managing, provides a good 7th/8th foundation for Burton and Perkins. So the 2013 staff would look like this: Scott Diamond Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks (Baker/Gibson) Sam Deduno (Baker/Gibson) Cole DeVries Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra) Tyler Robertson Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins (other options throughout the year are Guerra, Burnett, Lester Oliveros, Caleb Thielbar, Luis Perdomo, and perhaps Dakota Watts and Bruce Pugh) Note: other free agent signings that I could live with: Ervin Santana, Joe Blanton, and perhaps even Joe Saunders. In part three, the focus will be on the position players and the notion that depth is a good thing.

And if Arcia falls to where he was in FTM in 2011, what kind of mismanagement will Twins embark upon with him!? I would like to see him get the extended look that Parmelee got (EVENTUALLY) at AAA this year. 200+ PAs.

Why drop Matt Hauser?

Beckmt, I am not in favor of starting the season with Hicks and Arcia making the Twins roster. I don't mean to say that *at no point* should Span and/or Revere be traded during 2013. I would like to see the continuation of 2012 success into 2013 at AAA for Hicks and Arcia. Nishioka's salary back is helpful. It's the difference between a Saunders and and a Marcum.

I don't know if Slama is in the doghouse. I don't know how he possibly could be. I mean . . . Alexi Casilla still got significant playing time this year! I don't know what the Twins WILL do, but that is not the point of this. This is what they SHOULD do.

This is the first part of four parts of my 2013 Twins blueprint. The following is an overview of the roster. Part two will focus on the pitchers, part three on the position players, and part four will be centered around both contingency plans for 2013 and looking toward the future beyond 2013. Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them. With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench. What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury: Denard Span Ben Revere Joe Mauer Josh Willingham Justin Morneau Trevor Plouffe Ryan Doumit Brian Dozier Pedro Florimon Chris Parmelee Jamey Carroll Darin Mastroianni Chris Herrmann Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle) Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this in part two) Cole DeVries Tyler Robertson Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra gets passed through waivers) Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $96 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as what the 2012 team was supposed to cost before certain releases and trades. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight. My 2013 roster removes the dead weight. The idea is to keep the best players and add good players to replace bad or mediocre players. This means what I refer to as a "Thome bench" and a "2006 quality rotation." Having a bench that always includes an impact bat is a vital thing for all good teams. That extra player either fills in for injured players or becomes the pinch hitter needed in close games. This would be Parmelee at the very beginning of the season, but would rotate between Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Span, and Revere as well. Having "too much" is a good thing. I do not mean that a Johan Santana is being added, but bringing in Jackson and Marcum means bolstering the rotation in a strong way. There is no messing around with this kind of talent. They are better than everyone other than the 2012 Scott Diamond and glimpses of Scott Baker. The cost to add both is not bad at all and, again, this team costs just as much as the planned 2012 Twins team. In part two I will address the pitching staff in detail.

This is the first part of four parts of my 2013 Twins blueprint. The following is an overview of the roster. Part two will focus on the pitchers, part three on the position players, and part four will be centered around both contingency plans for 2013 and looking toward the future beyond 2013. Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them. With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench. What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury: Denard Span Ben Revere Joe Mauer Josh Willingham Justin Morneau Trevor Plouffe Ryan Doumit Brian Dozier Pedro Florimon Chris Parmelee Jamey Carroll Darin Mastroianni Chris Herrmann Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle) Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this in part two) Cole DeVries Tyler Robertson Anthony Slama (Deolis Guerra gets passed through waivers) Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $96 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as what the 2012 team was supposed to cost before certain releases and trades. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight. My 2013 roster removes the dead weight. The idea is to keep the best players and add good players to replace bad or mediocre players. This means what I refer to as a "Thome bench" and a "2006 quality rotation." Having a bench that always includes an impact bat is a vital thing for all good teams. That extra player either fills in for injured players or becomes the pinch hitter needed in close games. This would be Parmelee at the very beginning of the season, but would rotate between Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, Span, and Revere as well. Having "too much" is a good thing. I do not mean that a Johan Santana is being added, but bringing in Jackson and Marcum means bolstering the rotation in a strong way. There is no messing around with this kind of talent. They are better than everyone other than the 2012 Scott Diamond and glimpses of Scott Baker. The cost to add both is not bad at all and, again, this team costs just as much as the planned 2012 Twins team. In part two I will address the pitching staff in detail.

Good analysis and Hunter really did bounce back this season when he could have continued to decline.

Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them. With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench. What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury: Denard Span Ben Revere Joe Mauer Josh Willingham Justin Morneau Trevor Plouffe Ryan Doumit Brian Dozier Pedro Florimon Chris Parmelee Jamey Carroll Darin Mastroianni Chris Herrmann Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle) Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this below) Cole DeVries Tyler Robertson Deolis Guerra Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $97 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as the 2012 team. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight. My 2013 roster removes the dead weight and adds two very good pitchers. Marcum is about to turn 31 and has averaged 193 innings in seven seasons with Toronto and Milwaukee, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson just turned 29 and has been in the majors in some capacity for 10 seasons already. Early in his career it appears he was in over his head, but in 2011 he posted a 3.79 ERA and this year he has a 3.77 ERA and has pitcher near 200 innings each season, combining for about a . . . 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson and Marcum are clearly very, very similar pitchers. And their similarity will be refreshing after the mirror-imaged Blackburn, Pavano, and Marquis this year. The general idea with the Rochester rotation would be Gibson limited to 5 innings and then 6 innings an outing in April and May respectively. If all goes well, he can be promoted. Walters, Bromberg, Vasquez, and Hernandez would join him while Baker gets rehab time. Speaking of Baker, Baker would get a base $2 million salary with huge incentive increases based on innings pitched and ERA. That salary would top out at $6 million. With regard to the bullpen, I include Guerra because he is out of options. Anthony Slama would be next in line if the Twins think Guerra would clear waivers since he clearly needs more time in Rochester. If Fien falters, or there is an injury Slama would be the guy to call on. Alex Burnett has an option, and I think the Twins should use it immediately to get him to work on command and striking more batters out. The bench is meant to be a return to the "Thome bench." This means that the Twins would have either a good replacement already up with the team in case of injury or one good-great bat on the bench for every single game (pinch hitting for Florimon, Dozier, or possibly Revere. As it turns out, Chris Parmelee appears to be the odd man out for the first several games of the season, but he can be worked into the rotation to give optimal rest for six other guys, especially Mauer, Morneau, Doumit, and Willingham. I still prefer a Willingham-Revere positional flip, but this would still work even if tey stayed where they are right now. Jamey Carroll might end up being the starter somewhere (I would say SS), but if not that just means he is a late-inning replacement and a backup at 3B, SS, and 2B. I realize that putting Chris Herrmann on this roster flies in the face with what I have said about AA and AAA, but I also think that Herrmann's value for 2013 is with the Twins has Doumit-lite, certainly getting a chance to take over Doumit's role as Mauer's catching partner in the future. Butera can be given a nice little salary to be the AAA catcher, working with pitchers as they come up through the system. Maybe he can be called up if there is an injury and certainly in September. But there is no reason to have him on the Twins roster. Herrmann, in my view, belonged in AAA by mid-season 2012 at the latest anyway. He also adds LF depth (and likely can adapt to RF and even 1B). Mastroianni would return in his role as a backup for all three OF positions and a speedster on the bases. It might not be a bad idea to also get him 2B time in emergency situations. Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, and Evan Bigley would be the Rochester OF/DH, with perhaps Tosoni or Bigley trying out at 1B. Eduardo Escobar and Chris Colabello would be the other players at Rochester who could factor into the 2013 Twins roster.

Last year, I actually put out three versions of a 2012 blueprint depending on payroll (110, 105, 100) and I was right about a few things. Jamey Carroll and Ryan Doumit were added, and I even had Scott Diamond as a fifth starter in one of them. With regard to 2013, I have done a considerable amount of thinking and re-thinking. I had thought for some time that the Twins should trade Morneau for either two varying level prospects or one prospect and one MLB-ready pitcher. It is good to be constantly critical of one's perspective and to re-evaluate one's ideas. So, I have decided that the Twins best bet for 2013 and 2014-on is to not trade anybody in the offseason, instead signing two FA starting pitchers and maximizing the depth of the lineup and bench. What this means for 2013 is a roster that looks like this, barring injury: Denard Span Ben Revere Joe Mauer Josh Willingham Justin Morneau Trevor Plouffe Ryan Doumit Brian Dozier Pedro Florimon Chris Parmelee Jamey Carroll Darin Mastroianni Chris Herrmann Scott Diamond (awarded opening day, on principle) Edwin Jackson Shaun Marcum Liam Hendriks Sam Deduno (with LR Cole DeVries, Rochester's Kyle Gibson, PJ Walters, Esmerling Vasquez, and David Bromberg on call, and the DL-ed Scott Baker as well--more on all of this below) Cole DeVries Tyler Robertson Deolis Guerra Casey Fien Brian Duensing Jared Burton Glen Perkins This roster, including the arbitration guesses and the 3 year, $30 million contracts given to Jackson and Marcum, comes in at somewhere around $97 million (and this includes paying Nishioka and Blackburn). In other words, the Twins could have this team for the same cost as the 2012 team. There was a lot of money tied up in Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, Jason Marquis, and Matt Capps, making about 30% of the payroll dead weight. My 2013 roster removes the dead weight and adds two very good pitchers. Marcum is about to turn 31 and has averaged 193 innings in seven seasons with Toronto and Milwaukee, compiling a 3.78 ERA and a 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson just turned 29 and has been in the majors in some capacity for 10 seasons already. Early in his career it appears he was in over his head, but in 2011 he posted a 3.79 ERA and this year he has a 3.77 ERA and has pitcher near 200 innings each season, combining for about a . . . 7.3/2.7 K/BB ratio. Jackson and Marcum are clearly very, very similar pitchers. And their similarity will be refreshing after the mirror-imaged Blackburn, Pavano, and Marquis this year. The general idea with the Rochester rotation would be Gibson limited to 5 innings and then 6 innings an outing in April and May respectively. If all goes well, he can be promoted. Walters, Bromberg, Vasquez, and Hernandez would join him while Baker gets rehab time. Speaking of Baker, Baker would get a base $2 million salary with huge incentive increases based on innings pitched and ERA. That salary would top out at $6 million. With regard to the bullpen, I include Guerra because he is out of options. Anthony Slama would be next in line if the Twins think Guerra would clear waivers since he clearly needs more time in Rochester. If Fien falters, or there is an injury Slama would be the guy to call on. Alex Burnett has an option, and I think the Twins should use it immediately to get him to work on command and striking more batters out. The bench is meant to be a return to the "Thome bench." This means that the Twins would have either a good replacement already up with the team in case of injury or one good-great bat on the bench for every single game (pinch hitting for Florimon, Dozier, or possibly Revere. As it turns out, Chris Parmelee appears to be the odd man out for the first several games of the season, but he can be worked into the rotation to give optimal rest for six other guys, especially Mauer, Morneau, Doumit, and Willingham. I still prefer a Willingham-Revere positional flip, but this would still work even if tey stayed where they are right now. Jamey Carroll might end up being the starter somewhere (I would say SS), but if not that just means he is a late-inning replacement and a backup at 3B, SS, and 2B. I realize that putting Chris Herrmann on this roster flies in the face with what I have said about AA and AAA, but I also think that Herrmann's value for 2013 is with the Twins has Doumit-lite, certainly getting a chance to take over Doumit's role as Mauer's catching partner in the future. Butera can be given a nice little salary to be the AAA catcher, working with pitchers as they come up through the system. Maybe he can be called up if there is an injury and certainly in September. But there is no reason to have him on the Twins roster. Herrmann, in my view, belonged in AAA by mid-season 2012 at the latest anyway. He also adds LF depth (and likely can adapt to RF and even 1B). Mastroianni would return in his role as a backup for all three OF positions and a speedster on the bases. It might not be a bad idea to also get him 2B time in emergency situations. Aaron Hicks, Oswaldo Arcia, Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, and Evan Bigley would be the Rochester OF/DH, with perhaps Tosoni or Bigley trying out at 1B. Eduardo Escobar and Chris Colabello would be the other players at Rochester who could factor into the 2013 Twins roster.

haha. Wow.

Replace Dice K with Shaun Marcum and this isn't bad at all other than Pavano. The Twins should sign one and trade (Morneau) for one.