Shane Wahl

Haha. Precisely! Great article.

I agree completely. Someone has to be "that guy" who sits on the bench for several games at the beginning of the season, but after that, a consistent rotation like this can be had.

I don't consider him a RF, no. I cannot believe this approach they are taking with him. This year was just WEIRD in the way he was treated. Anyway, his long-term future is not in RF. It's at 1B and DH. If things go well in the system, Parmelee will be a BENCH player (Sano moving to first . . . . ) or a DH.

The discussion regarding outfield depth that took place earlier in the season was interesting because it had almost been assumed that the outfield was the brightest spot in the Twins system. In the early-to-mid part of the season, legitimate question marks about the outfield depth were raised. Joe Benson (24, AA/AAA), and Rene Tosoni (26, AA/AAA), the two prospects who had been with the Twins in 2011 for a bit of time, were struggling and struggling with injuries, and the only other prospect to be having a good year at the time was Oswaldo Arcia. Now at the beginning of September, things have changed dramatically, though it isn't because of a change in Benson or Tosoni. Instead, Oswaldo Arcia (21, AA) and Aaron Hicks (22, AA) have turned in good-to-great seasons at AA. Arcia has not missed a step in his promotion to AA. He posted a .328/.398/.557 line with 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Hicks emerged with a 286/.384/.460 line that amounted to the highest OPS of his career since the GCL in 2008. He also increased his power (13 homers) and stole 32 bases in 43 attempts. The AAA/AAAA contingent of outfielders (Darin Mastroianni, Matt Carson, Evan Bigley and Wilkin Ramirez) provide good 4th and 5th OF options. Chris Herrmann (24, AA), while mainly a catcher this year, still would provide 5th OF status for the Twins and should be a solid bench player for the Twins in the near future. Further down the line, Lance Ray (23, A) and Danny Ortiz (22, A) each produced OK seasons, but still show promise and, most importantly, improved overall from 2011. Ray's .234/.327/.403 slash with 13 homers and and improved BB/K rate signals good progress in his development. Ortiz's .269/.313/.424 line with 8 homers is also a step in the right direction, and he was promoted early in the season from low-A. While Angel Morales (22, A) and JD Williams (21, low-A) are now big question marks, Nate Roberts (23, A) has been excellent once again. He posted a .299/.433/.427 slash in his repeat Beloit season and walked more than he struck out (44/37). If healthy in 2013, he could end the season in New Britain. Romy Jimenez (21, Rookie) turned in a great year for E-Town and Candido Pimentel (22, Rookie) had a small breakthrough there while also playing some second base. Most importantly, Max Kepler (19, Rookie) had a huge breakout season and is going to move on to Beloit next year with increased power and plate discipline. His statistics were a sight for sore eyes: .297/.387/.539 with 16 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 269 plate appearances. He is emerging as a top 10 prospect for the Twins. Finally, Byron Buxton (18, Rookie) was promoted from the GCL and actually improved a bit after the promotion. Dereck Rodriguez (20, Rookie) was very good (.783 OPS) for the GCL Twins and the Danny Valencia trade brought in another quality player in Jeremias Pineda (21, Rookie). While Rodriguez will likely start for E-Town next year, Pineda might move up to Beloit as a 4th OF. I have not discussed Rory Rhodes (21 A/Rookie)--who was a 3B, then a 1B, and is now a potential corner OF--nor did I mention Zach Larson (18, Rookie) or Kelvin Ortiz (20, Rookie) from the GCL. With Benson and Tosoni included, I have mentioned 23 outfield candidates from Mastroianni and Carson currently on the Twins 25 man roster to players drafted in 2012. Surely, these players range from potential stars to never-will-make-it-to-show-players, but they are all valuable contributors and demonstrate, as a whole, that there is significant OF depth in the system, especially up through Beloit. Only time will tell with these players, but I think it is now safe to say that there really is OF depth in the Twins' system.

The discussion regarding outfield depth that took place earlier in the season was interesting because it had almost been assumed that the outfield was the brightest spot in the Twins system. In the early-to-mid part of the season, legitimate question marks about the outfield depth were raised. Joe Benson (24, AA/AAA), and Rene Tosoni (26, AA/AAA), the two prospects who had been with the Twins in 2011 for a bit of time, were struggling and struggling with injuries, and the only other prospect to be having a good year at the time was Oswaldo Arcia. Now at the beginning of September, things have changed dramatically, though it isn't because of a change in Benson or Tosoni. Instead, Oswaldo Arcia (21, AA) and Aaron Hicks (22, AA) have turned in good-to-great seasons at AA. Arcia has not missed a step in his promotion to AA. He posted a .328/.398/.557 line with 10 homers in 299 plate appearances. Hicks emerged with a 286/.384/.460 line that amounted to the highest OPS of his career since the GCL in 2008. He also increased his power (13 homers) and stole 32 bases in 43 attempts. The AAA/AAAA contingent of outfielders (Darin Mastroianni, Matt Carson, Evan Bigley and Wilkin Ramirez) provide good 4th and 5th OF options. Chris Herrmann (24, AA), while mainly a catcher this year, still would provide 5th OF status for the Twins and should be a solid bench player for the Twins in the near future. Further down the line, Lance Ray (23, A) and Danny Ortiz (22, A) each produced OK seasons, but still show promise and, most importantly, improved overall from 2011. Ray's .234/.327/.403 slash with 13 homers and and improved BB/K rate signals good progress in his development. Ortiz's .269/.313/.424 line with 8 homers is also a step in the right direction, and he was promoted early in the season from low-A. While Angel Morales (22, A) and JD Williams (21, low-A) are now big question marks, Nate Roberts (23, A) has been excellent once again. He posted a .299/.433/.427 slash in his repeat Beloit season and walked more than he struck out (44/37). If healthy in 2013, he could end the season in New Britain. Romy Jimenez (21, Rookie) turned in a great year for E-Town and Candido Pimentel (22, Rookie) had a small breakthrough there while also playing some second base. Most importantly, Max Kepler (19, Rookie) had a huge breakout season and is going to move on to Beloit next year with increased power and plate discipline. His statistics were a sight for sore eyes: .297/.387/.539 with 16 doubles, 5 triples, and 10 homers in 269 plate appearances. He is emerging as a top 10 prospect for the Twins. Finally, Byron Buxton (18, Rookie) was promoted from the GCL and actually improved a bit after the promotion. Dereck Rodriguez (20, Rookie) was very good (.783 OPS) for the GCL Twins and the Danny Valencia trade brought in another quality player in Jeremias Pineda (21, Rookie). While Rodriguez will likely start for E-Town next year, Pineda might move up to Beloit as a 4th OF. I have not discussed Rory Rhodes (21 A/Rookie)--who was a 3B, then a 1B, and is now a potential corner OF--nor did I mention Zach Larson (18, Rookie) or Kelvin Ortiz (20, Rookie) from the GCL. With Benson and Tosoni included, I have mentioned 23 outfield candidates from Mastroianni and Carson currently on the Twins 25 man roster to players drafted in 2012. Surely, these players range from potential stars to never-will-make-it-to-show-players, but they are all valuable contributors and demonstrate, as a whole, that there is significant OF depth in the system, especially up through Beloit. Only time will tell with these players, but I think it is now safe to say that there really is OF depth in the Twins' system.

Great post and I couldn't agree more (and nice use of The Godfather as well).

Early this season, I wrote about 10 prospects who I believed would have breakout seasons. These are not top prospects but 25-50 ranking prospects who I believed would emerge into serious big league contenders down the road. Here is an update on them and my prognostication results are definitely mixed. (age), team, PA, slash, 2B/3B/HR, BB/K, SB/SBA or (age), team, IP, ERA, K/BB, WHIP The Good: Nate Roberts: (23-6), Beloit, 339, .303/.435/.435, 18/3/4, 43/34, 27/34. Roberts stayed in Beloit all year and put up very similar numbers to 2011, with the addition of a fantastic BB/K ratio and a bunch of stolen bases. If he stays healthy, He should be moving through the system quickly perhaps ending 2013 in New Britain. Matt Hauser:(24-5), FTM/NBR, 85 2/3, 3.05, 66/32, 1.272. Hauser excelled at Fort Myers and has held his own at New Britain. Not sure if the Twins plan to use him as a starter or reliever next year, but should be back at New Britain to start 2013. Danny Santana: (21-10), FTM, 529, .288/.331/.404, 21/9/6, 28/77, 16/27. Santana played as I had expected this season, and did improve his plate discipline a bit over last season. He is still quite young, but I would think has done enough to move to New Britain next year. He plays SS, 2B, and CF, so it will be interesting to see how his defense shapes up over the next few years. Angel Mata: (19-10), ELZ, 53 1/3, 3.38 55/34, 1.219. Mata is very young and has control issues, but he is definitely an exciting prospect to watch. Beloit will be a great test for him next year. Lance Ray: (22-11), FTM, 417, .240/.332/.412, 21/1/13, 49/80, 5/6. Ray has quietly put together a decent season after starting (again) miserably. He has improved his plate discipline and played 1B along with both OF corners. Like Roberts, he put up very similar numbers in 2011 and 2012, but with small improvements. That's a good sign for next year (I would think he starts at FTM). The Bad: J.D. Williams: (21-9), BEL, 389, .236/.314/.341, 14/2/6, 38/113, 23/31. Williams was fantastic in 2011 and has only pulled it together of late this season to prevent the season from being pretty ugly. Definitely a disappointment, but maybe he will turn it around next year back at Beloit. Pat Dean: (23-3), FTM, 150 1/3, 4.07, 77/33, 1.39. Dean's K rate is terrible. I question his future prospects at this point. Should stick at FTM to start the season and see if he can bounce back. Tim Shibuya: (22-11), BEL, 74, 5.59, 56/15, 1.392. Shibuya started out very well, then faltered, and then got injured. Not sure what to think about next year with him. He does have promise. Logan Darnell: (23-6), NBR, 151, 5.01, 97/46, 1.523. Darnell struggled off and on this season. He is headed to the AFL, and that will be a good test for him. Undoubtedly headed for NBR again next year. The Ugly: Tyler Grimes: (22-2), BEL, 365, .194/.307/.314, 16/3/5, 40/95, 7/13. This was just a very bad year for someone I thought would finish in Fort Myers. The ISO numbers are not terrible (.113 and .120), but he just cannot hit for average. He needs to go back to Beloit for 2013.

Early this season, I wrote about 10 prospects who I believed would have breakout seasons. These are not top prospects but 25-50 ranking prospects who I believed would emerge into serious big league contenders down the road. Here is an update on them and my prognostication results are definitely mixed. (age), team, PA, slash, 2B/3B/HR, BB/K, SB/SBA or (age), team, IP, ERA, K/BB, WHIP The Good: Nate Roberts: (23-6), Beloit, 339, .303/.435/.435, 18/3/4, 43/34, 27/34. Roberts stayed in Beloit all year and put up very similar numbers to 2011, with the addition of a fantastic BB/K ratio and a bunch of stolen bases. If he stays healthy, He should be moving through the system quickly perhaps ending 2013 in New Britain. Matt Hauser:(24-5), FTM/NBR, 85 2/3, 3.05, 66/32, 1.272. Hauser excelled at Fort Myers and has held his own at New Britain. Not sure if the Twins plan to use him as a starter or reliever next year, but should be back at New Britain to start 2013. Danny Santana: (21-10), FTM, 529, .288/.331/.404, 21/9/6, 28/77, 16/27. Santana played as I had expected this season, and did improve his plate discipline a bit over last season. He is still quite young, but I would think has done enough to move to New Britain next year. He plays SS, 2B, and CF, so it will be interesting to see how his defense shapes up over the next few years. Angel Mata: (19-10), ELZ, 53 1/3, 3.38 55/34, 1.219. Mata is very young and has control issues, but he is definitely an exciting prospect to watch. Beloit will be a great test for him next year. Lance Ray: (22-11), FTM, 417, .240/.332/.412, 21/1/13, 49/80, 5/6. Ray has quietly put together a decent season after starting (again) miserably. He has improved his plate discipline and played 1B along with both OF corners. Like Roberts, he put up very similar numbers in 2011 and 2012, but with small improvements. That's a good sign for next year (I would think he starts at FTM). The Bad: J.D. Williams: (21-9), BEL, 389, .236/.314/.341, 14/2/6, 38/113, 23/31. Williams was fantastic in 2011 and has only pulled it together of late this season to prevent the season from being pretty ugly. Definitely a disappointment, but maybe he will turn it around next year back at Beloit. Pat Dean: (23-3), FTM, 150 1/3, 4.07, 77/33, 1.39. Dean's K rate is terrible. I question his future prospects at this point. Should stick at FTM to start the season and see if he can bounce back. Tim Shibuya: (22-11), BEL, 74, 5.59, 56/15, 1.392. Shibuya started out very well, then faltered, and then got injured. Not sure what to think about next year with him. He does have promise. Logan Darnell: (23-6), NBR, 151, 5.01, 97/46, 1.523. Darnell struggled off and on this season. He is headed to the AFL, and that will be a good test for him. Undoubtedly headed for NBR again next year. The Ugly: Tyler Grimes: (22-2), BEL, 365, .194/.307/.314, 16/3/5, 40/95, 7/13. This was just a very bad year for someone I thought would finish in Fort Myers. The ISO numbers are not terrible (.113 and .120), but he just cannot hit for average. He needs to go back to Beloit for 2013.

This would amount to about 70-73 wins with no other lineup changes. This will not be the rotations though.

They are show sure of themselves that they need no ML evidence or they don't want him to succeed and make them look bad for doing this to him for so long. Neither one of those options makes the Twins look good. Slama's ceiling is probably a Jared Burton replacement, but that would mean Burton could be or could have been traded.

I know! It is really cynical, but I just don't get it at all. There is no reason not to give him 20 innings this year just to see if he does get rocked as they believe he will. But even a halving of that 15 k/9 would be a major improvement for the bullpen.

And it's a perception based on what? Clearly not evidence.

When coming to form one's beliefs or making evaluations about things, the rather vast ocean between blind faith and evidence sets up a stark contrast in reasoned (or un-reasoned) judgment. This post is not about evolution or theism, but about something much less important in the grand scheme of things. This post is about the Twins' evaluation of Anthony Slama. Let's first examine the evidence, sticking to Slama's minor league and major league statistics. In parts of four seasons in AAA Rochester, Slama has 146 2/3 inning pitched, a 2.21 ERA, 183 K, 72 BB (2.54 K/BB), and a 1.152 WHIP. In 2012, Slama has improved upon the K/BB rate (3.0) with a whopping 15.1 K/9 together with a 5 BB/9. Let me repeat, this year he has been striking out 15 batters per 9 innings. With such impressive AAA stats (and much the same or better at the lower levels in the minors), certainly Slama has seen ample time up with the Twins, right? He pitched 4 2/3 innings in 2010 and 2 1/3 innings in 2011. Yes, the guy striking out AAA batters at an incredibly high rate has only seven total innings up with the Twins. So, clearly stats lie, in the view of the relevant decision makers for the Twins. What, then, are the Twins basing their evaluation of Slama on instead? I submit that it is blind faith, but more importantly it is blind faith in their (the Twins' decision makers) ability to evaluate players and make projections into the major league future. Slama does not "have the stuff" and Gardenhire himself has made the claim that Slama's fastball is too straight vertically and horizontally for the majors, or in his eloquent words, "up here you've got to make it do something." Instead of using the evidence of Slama's AAA success to make a reasonable projection about his MLB projected performance, the Twins would rather rely on the faith they have in their seeing-eye assessment of Slama's stuff. AAA batters are actually pretty well-equipped to hit straight fastballs as well (in fact, that is usually the one thing hitters in AAA can do, even if they can't hit anything else and never make it to the majors). I could perhaps forgive this blind faith evaluation (in their own talents as evaluators, not in Slama) if the Twins A: had a bullpen full of better pitchers who were going to mean something for the Twins in the future, and B: if the Twins were in a division or wild card race and couldn't afford 20 innings given to a reliever they were leery of promoting. But neither A or B are true. While, Alex Burnett has been incredibly lucky not to get destroyed this year, he does have an option left and that should not be burned this season (it will next season, trust me!). But Jeff Gray is a pitching abomination. He (like Burnett) walks almost as many as he strikes out and he isn't striking many out to begin with. He has somehow been given 51 2/3 innings to pitch this year. And Gray has no future with the Twins, isn't getting better, and will be 31 in a few months. It is mind-boggling to me to consider the thought process involved in keeping Jeff Gray on the roster instead of Anthony Slama. Now, plenty of people at Twins Daily will wonder why one might complain about the last bullpen spot on a horrible team. Well, first, I am for improving the team at all roster spots if possible and it never matters how good or bad the team is in the first place. Second, is that there has to be some kind of justice in the baseball world! Anthony Slama deserves an opportunity with the Twins. We are also talking about livelihoods here as well. I have come to the point where I actually believe that the Twins are not promoting Slama because they are scared that he will succeed. That would prove them wrong and would make them have to question how they evaluate pitchers. The faithful do not like either of those two things happening.

When coming to form one's beliefs or making evaluations about things, the rather vast ocean between blind faith and evidence sets up a stark contrast in reasoned (or un-reasoned) judgment. This post is not about evolution or theism, but about something much less important in the grand scheme of things. This post is about the Twins' evaluation of Anthony Slama. Let's first examine the evidence, sticking to Slama's minor league and major league statistics. In parts of four seasons in AAA Rochester, Slama has 146 2/3 inning pitched, a 2.21 ERA, 183 K, 72 BB (2.54 K/BB), and a 1.152 WHIP. In 2012, Slama has improved upon the K/BB rate (3.0) with a whopping 15.1 K/9 together with a 5 BB/9. Let me repeat, this year he has been striking out 15 batters per 9 innings. With such impressive AAA stats (and much the same or better at the lower levels in the minors), certainly Slama has seen ample time up with the Twins, right? He pitched 4 2/3 innings in 2010 and 2 1/3 innings in 2011. Yes, the guy striking out AAA batters at an incredibly high rate has only seven total innings up with the Twins. So, clearly stats lie, in the view of the relevant decision makers for the Twins. What, then, are the Twins basing their evaluation of Slama on instead? I submit that it is blind faith, but more importantly it is blind faith in their (the Twins' decision makers) ability to evaluate players and make projections into the major league future. Slama does not "have the stuff" and Gardenhire himself has made the claim that Slama's fastball is too straight vertically and horizontally for the majors, or in his eloquent words, "up here you've got to make it do something." Instead of using the evidence of Slama's AAA success to make a reasonable projection about his MLB projected performance, the Twins would rather rely on the faith they have in their seeing-eye assessment of Slama's stuff. AAA batters are actually pretty well-equipped to hit straight fastballs as well (in fact, that is usually the one thing hitters in AAA can do, even if they can't hit anything else and never make it to the majors). I could perhaps forgive this blind faith evaluation (in their own talents as evaluators, not in Slama) if the Twins A: had a bullpen full of better pitchers who were going to mean something for the Twins in the future, and B: if the Twins were in a division or wild card race and couldn't afford 20 innings given to a reliever they were leery of promoting. But neither A or B are true. While, Alex Burnett has been incredibly lucky not to get destroyed this year, he does have an option left and that should not be burned this season (it will next season, trust me!). But Jeff Gray is a pitching abomination. He (like Burnett) walks almost as many as he strikes out and he isn't striking many out to begin with. He has somehow been given 51 2/3 innings to pitch this year. And Gray has no future with the Twins, isn't getting better, and will be 31 in a few months. It is mind-boggling to me to consider the thought process involved in keeping Jeff Gray on the roster instead of Anthony Slama. Now, plenty of people at Twins Daily will wonder why one might complain about the last bullpen spot on a horrible team. Well, first, I am for improving the team at all roster spots if possible and it never matters how good or bad the team is in the first place. Second, is that there has to be some kind of justice in the baseball world! Anthony Slama deserves an opportunity with the Twins. We are also talking about livelihoods here as well. I have come to the point where I actually believe that the Twins are not promoting Slama because they are scared that he will succeed. That would prove them wrong and would make them have to question how they evaluate pitchers. The faithful do not like either of those two things happening.

I am really not down with trading more than one of the Twins core, unless there are established replacements. Parmelee's AAA numbers are ridiculous. I am more confident that he could at least put up his 2011 NBR numbers in the majors. That's worthy of trading Morneau for a good pitcher. However, I don't really see Revere as Span's replacement any longer given they were so effective *together* in the lineup. But I am NOT comfortable with replacing him with a AA player yet. How could I? Revere needed time in AAA. Clearly Parmelee did too. Hicks and Arcia in AAA to begin the year next year and maybe by June a Span trade would be a good idea (as long as there are no injuries to Willingham or Revere at that point). Point taken back on Marcum.

I am not sure what you are really getting at, Jeremy. I don't see that happening at all. That's the exact opposite of what I think should happen and even what will likely happen. Anyway, I am not sure if Span is necessarily more valuable in a trade than Morneau. It depends on the team. And the Twins could throw in a Swarzak, Gutierrez, or someone else to make it more palatable. Clearly, if Parmelee is going to be a Twin, Morneau has got to go. There is no other palatable way if Parmelee is going to be a Twin next year.

Thrylos, am I suppose to gather from this that you might be a fan of keeping Morneau and playing Parmelee in RF? If not (hopefully not), who is going to in RF, at least at the start of the season (until June, maybe?). I will concede that Mastroianni has been fantastic in his role, and I think Carson is an adequate fill-in for awhile too (I mean the dude was consistently between .280 and .295 all year in Rochester, and with solid power).

I didn't mean to get rid of Robertson (I know I wasn't very clear about that part), but I want to see him give up fewer hits. Maybe some more time in Rochester? I could easily sub-in someone else for Marcum. Not sure who yet. Morneau and paying half (or more) of his contract next season could fetch a young top pitcher. Maybe not an ACE ace, but a number one.

Well, Guerra is out of options (strange isn't it), so they have to make a decision. I would doubt that he would clear waivers. I like the idea of trading Morneau for an arbitration-eligible younger pitcher. There are about a dozen good ones. And Oakland has a few of them. Burnett has gotten by somehow this year with more walks than strikeouts. I just don't really trust him, but he has an option left, so he can maybe setup in Rochester. I would expect DeVries to be slightly better than Swarzak in that role, actually. I was a bit taken aback by how cheap it actually was this way. And I think I actually am $7 million high and should have started out with $60.25 million after paying for 1/2 of Morneau's contract. Carson was the last guy on this roster . . . I didn't really know who else to start the season with. Carson is the guy who would be blocking guys if in Rochester, though. I want to see Arcia and Hicks in AAA for a bit next year before thinking about trading Span or Revere.

Why Slama over Gutierrez!? Something about how their stats compare in the minors, maybe?

Soon it will be time to actually get serious about next year (imagine being a Cubs fan). Maybe a title like Dr. StrangeGlove, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb of the 2012 Twins Season would be most appropriate here. An early blueprint for 2013: Trade Justin Morneau (Oakland, Texas, Tampa Bay would seem to be potential teams for this trade) for pitching prospects (hopefully at least one in AA or AAA) or even an arbitration-eligible pitcher. Maybe include paying for half of that $14 million left on Morneau's contract to sweeten the deal. Add in Anthony Swarzak to give pitching and Bigfoot back. Sign Shaun Marcum for 4 years and $50 million (12.5 per). Try to sign Scott Baker to a one-year deal worth $2 million base and another $6 million in incentives. If he doesn't want to agree to something like that, he should leave. Say goodbye to Matt Capps, Carl Pavano, and Alexi Casilla. Option, DFA, or outright Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, Jeff Gray, Kyle Waldrop/Carlos Gutierrez, Tyler Robertson, and three of: Manship, Deduno, Walters, Vasquez, Hernandez (the other two are fourth and fifth starters initially). Let Rochester be happy with Nick Blackburn. $67.25 (keeping half of Morneau's salary) plus $12 million plus 2-8 million equals $81.25-87.25 million. Off the 40-man, then: Morneau, Capps, Gray, Butera, Swarzak, Waldrop or Gutierrez, and two of Deduno, Manship, Walters, and Vasquez. On the 40-man, then: Marcum, Baker, Walters, Hicks, Herrmann, Pinto, Hermsen, Slama, pitcher acquired in Morneau trade, and potentially Vasquez. With arbitration players, the payroll jumps too $90 million if Baker performs at a high level. I will let that stand for what it's worth. Clearly if Baker only earns that $2 million, another starting pitcher could be added and payroll would still drop from 2012 (there was a lot tied up in Morneau, Pavano, Baker, Capps, and Liriano). Starting rotation in April: Marcum Diamond Hendriks (yes) Baker or Deduno or Walters or Vasquez or Manship LR: DeVries MI: Guerra MI: Oliveros/Fien MI: Slama SU: Duensing SU: Burton CL: Perkins (or flip Burton and Perkins) Position players (and keeping that OF situation as is . . . ) Span CF Revere RF Mauer C Willingham LF Doumit DH Plouffe 3B Parmelee 1B Dozier 2B Florimon SS Carroll Herrmann Mastroianni Carson In Rochester: Gibson Bromberg Hermsen Deduno or Walters or Vasquez or Manship Hicks Escobar Arcia Benson Colabello Tosoni or Bigley Romero Butera (if he clears waivers, Lehmann otherwise) Ramirez, Chang, Burroughs, etc. In NBR: SP acquired for Morneau Stuifbergen etc. Gibson, the pitcher acquired for Morneau, Hermsen, and Bromberg could all take over the other two spots in the rotation, or all three if Hendriks falls apart next year. My thinking is that the Twins are an 80 win team next year without the addition of Marcum and the improvement of Hendriks, Parmelee, and Dozier (which one would think has to come in 2013). And Baker, Arcia, Hicks, and whoever is the SP acquired for Morneau are the x factors that could push them to over 90 wins. Some more notes: Hopefully personnel decisions are not made based on September and ST performances like they were this year. That time could be used to figure out how the MI plays out for next year, but hopefully not much more (I predict Florimon at SS and Dozier at 2B when Dozier comes back up in September). The pitching situation is not as egregious as people are making it out to be. First of all, when the correct decision is finally made about Duensing, the bullpen is anchored pretty well with him, Burton, and Perkins. Gray won't be back and Burnett has an option (and he just has to regress, right?). I don't like Swarzak for a variety of reasons and think DeVries should be rewarded. Free Anthony Slama, and then figure out the last two spots (with preference for Oliveros, Fien, and Guerra). Second, 2012 was a trial run for a number of pitchers, and aside from Hendriks, all of the AAA guys performed well. The disaster that opened the 2012 will not be repeated. Excluding Blackburn, Marquis, half-Pavano, and half-Liriano will go a long way in 2013. Some optimism abounds here, but overall the 2012 system improved quite a bit from a year ago. A 70-win total in 2012 (that might be optimistic itself) covers up the fact that the organization improved from the ground up this year. The problem was that the top faltered on many fronts, and strange inconsistencies in personnel decisions (treatment of Parmelee vs. Dozier, for instance) had negative impacts. While I said last year that I was looking forward to the Twins 2012 season, when I say the same thing about the 2013 season, I won't be lying.

Soon it will be time to actually get serious about next year (imagine being a Cubs fan). Maybe a title like Dr. StrangeGlove, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb of the 2012 Twins Season would be most appropriate here. An early blueprint for 2013: Trade Justin Morneau (Oakland, Texas, Tampa Bay would seem to be potential teams for this trade) for pitching prospects (hopefully at least one in AA or AAA) or even an arbitration-eligible pitcher. Maybe include paying for half of that $14 million left on Morneau's contract to sweeten the deal. Add in Anthony Swarzak to give pitching and Bigfoot back. Sign Shaun Marcum for 4 years and $50 million (12.5 per). Try to sign Scott Baker to a one-year deal worth $2 million base and another $6 million in incentives. If he doesn't want to agree to something like that, he should leave. Say goodbye to Matt Capps, Carl Pavano, and Alexi Casilla. Option, DFA, or outright Drew Butera, Alex Burnett, Jeff Gray, Kyle Waldrop/Carlos Gutierrez, Tyler Robertson, and three of: Manship, Deduno, Walters, Vasquez, Hernandez (the other two are fourth and fifth starters initially). Let Rochester be happy with Nick Blackburn. $67.25 (keeping half of Morneau's salary) plus $12 million plus 2-8 million equals $81.25-87.25 million. Off the 40-man, then: Morneau, Capps, Gray, Butera, Swarzak, Waldrop or Gutierrez, and two of Deduno, Manship, Walters, and Vasquez. On the 40-man, then: Marcum, Baker, Walters, Hicks, Herrmann, Pinto, Hermsen, Slama, pitcher acquired in Morneau trade, and potentially Vasquez. With arbitration players, the payroll jumps too $90 million if Baker performs at a high level. I will let that stand for what it's worth. Clearly if Baker only earns that $2 million, another starting pitcher could be added and payroll would still drop from 2012 (there was a lot tied up in Morneau, Pavano, Baker, Capps, and Liriano). Starting rotation in April: Marcum Diamond Hendriks (yes) Baker or Deduno or Walters or Vasquez or Manship LR: DeVries MI: Guerra MI: Oliveros/Fien MI: Slama SU: Duensing SU: Burton CL: Perkins (or flip Burton and Perkins) Position players (and keeping that OF situation as is . . . ) Span CF Revere RF Mauer C Willingham LF Doumit DH Plouffe 3B Parmelee 1B Dozier 2B Florimon SS Carroll Herrmann Mastroianni Carson In Rochester: Gibson Bromberg Hermsen Deduno or Walters or Vasquez or Manship Hicks Escobar Arcia Benson Colabello Tosoni or Bigley Romero Butera (if he clears waivers, Lehmann otherwise) Ramirez, Chang, Burroughs, etc. In NBR: SP acquired for Morneau Stuifbergen etc. Gibson, the pitcher acquired for Morneau, Hermsen, and Bromberg could all take over the other two spots in the rotation, or all three if Hendriks falls apart next year. My thinking is that the Twins are an 80 win team next year without the addition of Marcum and the improvement of Hendriks, Parmelee, and Dozier (which one would think has to come in 2013). And Baker, Arcia, Hicks, and whoever is the SP acquired for Morneau are the x factors that could push them to over 90 wins. Some more notes: Hopefully personnel decisions are not made based on September and ST performances like they were this year. That time could be used to figure out how the MI plays out for next year, but hopefully not much more (I predict Florimon at SS and Dozier at 2B when Dozier comes back up in September). The pitching situation is not as egregious as people are making it out to be. First of all, when the correct decision is finally made about Duensing, the bullpen is anchored pretty well with him, Burton, and Perkins. Gray won't be back and Burnett has an option (and he just has to regress, right?). I don't like Swarzak for a variety of reasons and think DeVries should be rewarded. Free Anthony Slama, and then figure out the last two spots (with preference for Oliveros, Fien, and Guerra). Second, 2012 was a trial run for a number of pitchers, and aside from Hendriks, all of the AAA guys performed well. The disaster that opened the 2012 will not be repeated. Excluding Blackburn, Marquis, half-Pavano, and half-Liriano will go a long way in 2013. Some optimism abounds here, but overall the 2012 system improved quite a bit from a year ago. A 70-win total in 2012 (that might be optimistic itself) covers up the fact that the organization improved from the ground up this year. The problem was that the top faltered on many fronts, and strange inconsistencies in personnel decisions (treatment of Parmelee vs. Dozier, for instance) had negative impacts. While I said last year that I was looking forward to the Twins 2012 season, when I say the same thing about the 2013 season, I won't be lying.

Las Vegas is a terrible place for baseball.