IndianaTwin

You're catching all my mistakes. 😀 Yes, the Paddack move happens Monday, not Tuesday as I've been speculating. Which means that Paddack gets the Sunday game heading into the break, though with the off day Thursday, they could also bring back Ober from Tuesday to pitch on Sunday. But that's a later conversation. So basically the question right now is whether you'd rather have Martin or Winder on the roster tomorrow. I guess my thought is that since we know that Winder won't pitch tomorrow, we might as well have Martin available for pinch-running.

That would be a particularly good series to win. And hopefully by then, they are no longer playing a team with a better record.

My prediction is Winder. If you look above, you see that they've played the last couple days with a nine-man bullpen. Since they currently have only four starters on the roster, this would give them a couple days to play with a five-man bench before needing to make a decision with Paddack likely coming back Tuesday. But as Mama IT used to say, "We'll cross that bridge when we get to it."

A hunch is that it would be Winder. He's not going to be used in the next two days and would be sent down by Tuesday when Paddack is activated. With a generally rested pen, they can probably get two days with a seven-man pen before needing to make a decision on Tuesday, when they could send down Martin as Craig suggests. EDIT: I forgot that Winder came up for Festa, so they actually played with a nine-man bullpen the past couple days. So sending down Winder for Wallner makes perfect sense, since they are just going back to a four-starter, eight-reliever staff for a couple days.

My first reaction is, "Gimme Yates or Yimi, if the latter shows himself healthy." Jansen will be too expensive, both in dollars and prospects. The Reds saw themselves as competitive before the season and aren't that far out of it. They don't give up someone like Cruz, with control through 2028, without asking a high price. When I'm In contention, if I'm going to give up something, I want someone with a track record, so not Nardi and Mears. Yates and Yimi both have track records. They are in the last year of (manageable) contracts, which lessens the price. Without going too far into the weeds, I wonder if the Romo deal is comparable to what it would take for Yimi. Yates probably costs a bit more, All in all, it seems like the Twins have improved their bullpen most years by regular churning guys, giving guys a decent amount of rope to prove or disprove, moving on to the next one when someone has disproved. In building an octet, it seems like we've got... In: Duran, Jax. Assumed in when healthy: Stewart. Close to cementing their in-ness: Alcala, Staumont, and I'll include Okert. Assuming health for Stewart and consistency for the next three, we're at six. Undecided, pitching okay, but not yet in: Sands. Still on their long leash, but trending downward: Funderburk, Thielbar. Next guys to get a shot, on the 40-man (including 60-day IL): Winder, Henriquez, Boushley, Topa, Weiss. Next guys to get a shot (or second shot), after the 40-man guys have been sorted out: Wittgren, Brigham, Castillo, Jensen, Jackson, Bowman. I may have missed someone, but those are the general categories. I didn't include any of the guys being used as starters. As I walk through this exercise, I start to think that there are enough options already in the mix. Assuming Stewart's back by soon after the All-Star Break and pitches well, unless there are injuries within the "in" group, I'm not sure how much is needed. Stewart makes six. With today, Sands will have moved his ERA+ to just above 100. If he would pitch himself up the latter to the in list, you're down to needing to only fill one spot from the 13 guys in the last four bullets, many who have shown extended stints of success at some point. With all that, I'm not sure that I give up much of any assets to get Yates or Yimi. I don't know that the marginal gain from one of them is worth it.

And the whole thing about retaining the lead. 😄

And at “just” 28 pitches, I’d send him back out.

Atteberry: “Santana sticks the landing and gets a 6.0 from the German judge.” Was Max scoring it?

I’ll try to keep it simpler. 9 > 3

Mercy sakes alive. Looks like we got us a convoy.

You realize they are on pace for 91 wins, right? And that virtually every team with that many wins makes the playoffs? Or that they have the second-best record in baseball over the last 70 games? Yes, I know they have to count the first 18 as well, but I tend to put about 3.89 times more credence in a 70-game sample than an 18-game sample? (Apologies for the mathy stuff.)

Send Miranda back to St. Paul. Lazy fly ball to left. Seriously, that was impressive.

Royce Pipp?

Brain cramp while typing late at night. The post I was responding to referenced Stewart and I used that instead of Okert. It doesn’t really change the overall thought process I walked through, however, since I don’t think he’d want to use his highest-level lefty in the situations I was describing.

Correa’s first contract comes to mind. 😄 But I’m generally on board with what you are saying. We obviously never know what the real “budget” is and how firm it is, beyond the generalities named by front office personnel. But what we do know is… They have seemed averse to long-term contracts, particularly for pitchers. Though a decent amount will come off the books in 2025, they have some significant increases coming as well. Namely Lopez and guys starting to hit arbitration (Jax, Ryan, Ober, Duran and Lewis are S1 this offseason.) Of current guys, only Vazquez comes off the books in 2026. The big three of Correa, Lopez and Buxton. More guys hit arbitration and that quintet hits S2. In that context, it’s really hard for me to see many multi-year contracts to free agents. Maybe two-year deals. With their history, I can see one-years with options. Hopefully some buying out of a year or two of arbitration and a year or two of free agency for some guys. Regarding mercenaries, I joked about Correa. We’ll also never know this, but I really wonder what kind of offers Correa had on the table before he turned to the Twins and said, “What about coming to you guys for a bazillion dollars, but for just one year?” (I recognize that it technically included the options, but realistically both sides knew it was unlikely to be taken.) Similarly, to use a guy like Patrick Corban, who turns 35 in two weeks, I wonder how much would it take for him to take a one-year deal when he’s probably shooting for at least three or four. Or if a Scherzer ended the year healthy and wanted to play another year. Or a reliever, particularly given that we’re talking $10-$15M for a year rather than $30+. Fun to imagine.

I don’t think we’re yelling at each other, so thanks for respectful discussion. I’ll continue. Apologies in advance. This got WAAAAAY longer than I’d planned. I’ll be curious to see what the win expectancy was entering the eighth (EDIT to add — it was down to 13 percent, which supports some of my comments below.). I’m sure it’s available mid game, though I don’t know where to look. It would also be interesting to look at it over time and see if there is indeed a general number that seems to be the tipping point of when he makes someone the sacrificial lamb. Even with that number, however, I’m sure there are nuances. For example, in tonight’s game would he have been more likely to go to No. 7 or even No. 6 if Pressly and Hader weren’t available and they would have been going against the Astros Nos. 3 and 4, etc.? I’m a curious guy by nature and tend to be pretty analytical, so I really would find it fun to be a fly on the wall as those conversations are happening, both with his coaches mid game and more importantly, with their analytics and front office folks in the offseason and pregame, which is where they develop the overarching principles they will abide by in game management. Tonight, for example, I’m trying to put myself in Rocco’s head on the decisions about Winder, both to use him at all and then to use him for a second. Here’s what I imagine: I got hurt by Lopez only going five, so I have to get four innings from the pen. Lopez had struggled through five, but I’d really like to get another inning from him. Unfortunately, single-single-single loads the bases. I go to Alcala to hopefully minimize the damage and try to get out of it. Unfortunately, he allows two guys to score, so I’m in position of using my bullpen from behind, rather than tied or even ahead if my offense scores in the sixth. He also threw 24 pitches, so it’s not realistic to consider him for another inning. I don’t want to use Jax and Duran until the eighth and nine, and preferably only with a lead. At worst, with a tie. Similarly, I’d rather not use Stewart unless we’re in a spot with a higher likelihood of winning. I’d rather not use Staumont because of the rest factor (which I’ll explain later). So unless we score some runs, that leaves me with Winder, Funderburke and Thielbar to get through the remaining three innings. The choice is either to use them for one inning each or to use one of them for two innings. If the former, I’m ensuring myself of my three lowest-level guys having each thrown an inning going into tomorrow. If the latter, I need to get two innings out of one of them (or a combination of 1.2 and 1.1, but I prefer fresh innings for guys). I (IT speaking) think I agree with the general principle of not using all three and trying to get two innings out of one of them. Since Winder is going to be down by Tuesday anyway, it makes sense to try squeezing two innings out of him. (And since they did squeeze a second inning he threw 43 pitches, he’s realistically shot for Saturday, Sunday and probably even Monday, so I wonder if he actually gets sent down tomorrow for a fresh body that will in turn be sent down when Paddack comes back Tuesday. But I digress.) So Winder gets the seventh. Two whiffs, followed by a single that’s listed as to Winder. I wasn’t following closely at that point — was he actually close to getting out with a 1-2-3? Unfortunately, the single happens, as does a 2B and a HBP before a ground ball. Heading to the eighth, again down two, whatever my (Rocco speaking again) win percentage entering the seventh, it’s not even lower. (EDIT to add: It was down to 13 percent.) I still don’t want to use Duran, Jax, Stewart and Staumont for the reasons listed above and Staumont for the reason described below. Thus my choices are another inning for Winder or two innings from either Funderburke or Thielbar. I wonder if my thought process at that point is, “I’m not sure I really trust either of the latter for two innings, and I don’t want to risk needing to use them both. I know I’m going to be sending Winder down. He’s already thrown 21 pitches, so I don’t have him for tomorrow and maybe not Sunday, but if I go ahead and use him a second inning, I can send him down tomorrow and have a fresh body. Besides, he looked good on the first several hitters in the seventh, so maybe he can pull it together.” Unfortunately the eighth didn’t start well, Whatever the win percentage was (13 percent), it went down after hitting Altuve (to 11.2). And even further after Bergman singles (to 8.7). Now what? The likelihood of either Thielbar or Funderburke bailing me out with no runs is slim, and even if they do, I’ve needed to use that guy for a full inning, and I still have to cover the ninth. Realistically, by this point, Rocco has now committed to Winder being out there for a while. Best case scenario, he gets out with maybe only one run and we’ve still got six outs to score, though now we have to get three runs to tie. Unfortunately, worst case happens, with a little help from Margot, though that only cost the Twins one run. Even without the error, it still would have been 9-5. Instead it was 10-5 and the Twins didn’t score in the bottom of the eighth. So now it gets turned over to Funderburke or Thielbar for the ninth. Unfortunately, more worst case scenario happens. So… I don’t know if I would have done it this way (IT speaking again), but there is a logic behind it that I can understand. On Staumont, I’ve been kinda in and out on Game Threads recently, but there have been a couple people clamoring loudly for him. Have you been one of those? I’m actually intrigued by him as well. I had moderately high hopes with the signing, so I was bummed that he got hurt. I do wonder if the caution they’ve shown with him the last two weeks is related to his coming back from injury. His last two outings have come on a whopping six days rest each, but that was on the heels of a stretch of going six games in 12 days, which is pretty intense, particularly when you consider that in three of those he actually went more than an inning. So I wonder if they are going with some pretty extended rest times if possible in response to some initial signs of overuse and in lieu of an IL stint. He also did pitch on Wednesday, though it was only 13 pitches. He probably could have pitched tonight in an emergency. It will be interesting to see their willingness the next couple days if the situation calls for it. At the least, he seems like he’s climbed to at least No. 5 in the pecking order, maybe even ahead of Alcala to No. 4.

I was on the radio, still listening to the Astros broadcast. They gave no indication of Altuve getting hit intentionally. So you’re saying you’re okay with Miranda being hurt for a couple weeks because Winder was having control problems? And for the record, though I’m not a big fan of the retaliation HBP mindset, I thought that if they were going to do it on Sunday, they did it the right way. It was in the ninth inning so there was no chance of the Tigers retaliating for the retaliation. They had already gotten one (maybe even two, I forget?) out. It was lefty on lefty, using up the platoon disadvantage, so they were doing it in such a way that minimized the minute chance of an HBP contributing to a rally. Similarly, it seemed pretty clear that pinch hitting Martin and Farmer was about Rocco essentially saying, “If you’re going to do, do it now so it doesn’t hurt our best players. If you’re going to hold off and do it later so you can get one of our better players, you may be stuck with doing it at times when the game is much closer. If the Astros didn’t do it tonight, but plan to do it sometime, I think it’s more likely they will wait and do it on Sunday rather than tomorrow, for some of the same reasons. That could change if tomorrow’s game ends up being a laugher.

I hear what you are saying, but I think the difference is that Rocco doesn’t let higher-leverage guys go a second inning, while he will let a lower-leverage guy do it, particularly when the win expectancy has reached a certain point. (And I said “win expectancy” intentionally. Folks complain about the “spreadsheet,” but I can imagine that they do indeed have a formula that they use.) People complain that Rocco lets “winnable” games get away, but a couple years ago the complaint was that he overworked certain relievers so they wore down by year end. Keeping the higher leverage guys at one inning stints is one way of keeping them fresher. It’s a separate discussion, but I think this way of managing reinforces an understanding that Rocco and the FO typically take the long view. (And to anticipate a comment from someone about my referencing “lower” leverage relievers, note that I didn’t say “low.” I’m not suggesting that there should be someone groomed as a “low-leverage reliever.” I’m saying that in any eight-man bullpen, by definition there are going to be some relievers that are highER leverage than others and there will be others who will be lowER than others. Said another way, by definition, there is going to be a No. 8 guy in the pen. The goal is always to get the No. 8 guy to be as good as possible, but someone’s going to be No. 8 at any given time. For tonight, it was clear that No. 8 was Winder.)

They wouldn’t have been facing Contreras in the ninth. Martin and Farmer wouldn’t have pinch hit. I’m not sure the ninth says much of anything either way.

As you can maybe tell from my having typed this in the bottom of the ninth, I had gotten away from the iPad for a while, so I was typing after Winder did indeed unravel. And now the Twins have indeed scored the multiple runs, though obviously against a much lesser reliever. And now Hader did indeed come in, which was what another poster was hoping for as at least a minor win if it was still a 7-5 game. All to say, baseball can be very unpredictable! 😄

Based on the discussion from earlier this week, I assume we’re okay with that?

Could they have come back? Sure, But even if the new reliever shut down the Astros, they have six outs to get two runs against Pressly and Hader. Could they do it? Maybe, but I’m guessing the likelihood is quite small. On the other hand, Winder is going back to St. Paul by Tuesday when Paddack comes back. By giving Winder the second inning, they go ahead and save someone for Saturday. In fact, it fact, it wouldn’t be surprising if Winder is back down after tonight’s game, meaning that giving him the second inning tonight actually means that two relievers will be fresher tomorrow than they would be if someone else came in.

Nine.

Apologies if this story has been shared — it’s the middle three innings, so I’m listening to the Astros radio. Apparently Lee’s dad’s favorite players were Brooks Robinson and Lou Brock. Dad wanted to name his son after one of them, but didn’t think “Brock Lee” would work well.

We don’t.