My statement wasn't reflective of my "hope for," but a reflection of what I think is likelihood.
As Western SD notes, they have money in Paddack (and it's hard to imagine another team taking on the contract).
I don't know if the front office has made any actual statements on expected payroll, but folks seem to think it will be similar to this year. With the increase for Lopez and arbitration for others balancing the money coming off the books, it's hard to imagine taking on anything more than a Bundy-level flyer (if that). The other option is they can pull off an Arraez-for-Lopez-type trade, which was basically a salary wash before they extended Lopez. But I'm not sure who they have to trade that would draw interest. At one point, it seemed Castro might bring something, but with the way he tailed off, I doubt it. With all that, we're looking at people currently in the system.
Additionally, they have shown an unwillingness to start with two complete youngsters in the Opening Day rotation, which is what they'd have if they don't use Paddack and have to go with two of SWR (99 ERA+), Matthews (73 ERA+ and falling), Festa (85) and others.
On a second TJS: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/pitcher-results-after-2nd-tommy-john-surgery/. His summary statement is, "Overall, pitchers seem to return from their second Tommy John surgery and throw comparable to when they did before the operation." If you look at his game log, there are actually a bunch of good games and some real clunkers, which is also common in the first year following a TJS. He also has the advantage of being younger than the typical two-time TJS pitcher. The average age for them is 29 at the second surgery, whereas he will be 29 on Opening Day.
I know there are folks who would like to see Paddack transition to the bullpen full-time. I wouldn't be opposed to that, but with the money they have in Paddack, I think they will keep him as a starter for as long as they can.