Doomtints
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Everything posted by Doomtints
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I think Turley deserved a 2nd shot after his first performance. However, if it were me, I would have sent him down after his second start. This performance in his 3rd start only proved the point.
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Buxton has two problems this year. 1) Chasing fastballs: When it comes to fastballs, he loves to swing at pitches that are low and away but can only hit a fastball if it is right down broadway. 2) He has a .100 batting average v. "power" pitchers who are no doubt exploiting #1. This, too, is coachable, provided #1 isn't a sign that he can't see the ball. Regarding him playing much better as of late, he was improving in May and through the early part of June, but he his performance has declined a bit over the last week. Not saying I'm concerned, but pointing out that he's not fully baked yet.
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He has an .841 OPS. Let 'em have his 1K/game.
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Granite and Rosario aren't interchangeable players. Granite profiles to be a speedy guy with a bit of pop, but his success is going to be mostly about his speed. This profiles more like Buxton than Rosario. The team has more Rosario-types on the roster than Buxton-types. Two speedy defenders in the OF would be pretty elite, providing they can get on base. The point is, I think you would move Rosario for Granite if you wanted to change the profile of the team a bit, and I think this is a good idea to do when Granite is ready. However, you wouldn't simply swap Granite for Rosario because one feels one is better than the other. Making the move would improve speed at the position but Rosario is a more versatile hitter, esp. right now.
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We never saw it happen before Liriano. And we haven't seen it since.
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Granite could be the speedy guy that the Twins are lacking, but probably not this year. Maybe he'll get a cup of coffee at the end of the year.
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Sano for sure. Santana, maybe, but there is no guarantee. Berrios, no, he is too new. Doubtful for anyone else. There are too many good pitchers and not enough innings in the game for Kintzler to have a chance.
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This is a very interesting viewpoint, that saying a player was "very good" is disparaging and nitpicking.
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Game Thread Twins vs. White Sox, 6/22 @ 12:10pm
Doomtints replied to Dave The Dastardly's topic in Archived Game Threads
Dillon Gee can opt out of his contract on July 15th if not in the majors. You can bet he will be called up after 1-2 AAA starts, barring injury. Though, to be honest, I don't know why they wouldn't be using him in the majors now. Santiago is also slated to be back and the Twins are saying he is awesome. Take that as you will. We will never see Turley again. -
If someone claims him, so what? The Twins signed Dillon Gee yesterday and Santiago should be back soon, so Turley will be off the roster before you can say "bip." I bet you can say that pretty darn fast, mind you.
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Good question. He'll be gone with Santiago comes back, if that's any better. Hughes should be going to the pen.
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Examining the Twins Position Player-wise
Doomtints replied to DocBauer's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This might be over-analyzing. When you consider their ages, the Twins starting hitting right now is good enough, excepting Buxton and Polanco. They are thin when it comes to speed and could use another power bat. The rest of the guys are good enough now and, excepting Mauer, Dozier, and Grossman, should get better. As you said, Polanco will get better and Buxton will probably be good enough someday. Defensively they seem to have figured things out. I have complete trust in the Twins position players, they look a lot like the early 00s bunch. -
How Long Is Eddie Rosario's Leash?
Doomtints replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What you said is correct. You can't look at a 0.1 bWAR and say "replacement level" without considering the following: - How does he perform v. league average at his position? - How would the real-life "replacement" player in the Twins system compare to him if he left? Answers: - He is a little worse than the average player at his position this year, but not outside the margin of error and the sample size is small. Last year he was right at average and the year before a bit above average. With all available 3-year data, I would say he's an average player at his position. - The "replacement players" that the Twins could use for Rosario are FAR WORSE than league average, and far worse than Rosario. So is Rosario truly "replacement level" for the Twins? No. Is he "replacement level" for most teams? No. Personally, I think Rosario will be traded and Grossman will take over. But this isn't because Rosario is a lost cause or incompetent, it's because the Twins have other needs and Grossman is better. Rosario is good enough to trade and actually get something in return. Also, yes, his drop off so far this year appears to be largely defensively related. -
How Long Is Eddie Rosario's Leash?
Doomtints replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Mountain out of a molehill. -
This is something the Twins can coach to.
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Garver v. Gimenez is a false dilemma. Few thought Garver would be with the team in 2017, and few think Gimenez will be with the team after 2017.
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And Santana isn't talking to the press about how he is too tired to perform.
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Pitching is required. <--Most obvious statement of 2017. Tradeable position assets: - Gimenez - Dozier - Rosario/Kepler/Grossman (but only one of them) - Escobar/Adrianza (but only one of them) - Vargas - Various minor leaguers (Byungho Park is a bust, mind you) Pitching contracts that are up. If not wanted, flip them for anything they can get, even if almost nothing: - Santiago - Kintzler - Belisle - Breslow - Turly - Perkins (Included for completeness. There will be no takers.) None of this will lead to a good starting pitcher, but even just a prospect or two for 2018/2019 would help take the edge off of what needs to be done during the offseason.
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I think it's unlikely that he will be dominant again considering his recent comments to the press that he is tired and overworked + his age. He was very good in his peak years.
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I see two metrics that stand out with Santana: - His BABIP is unsustainably awesome. - His H/9 is better than his career norm. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA back up BABIP's suggestion of luck. Considering the rest of the pitchers are not lucky at all -- and thus defense/pitch framing is not helping the rest of the staff -- regression seems likely. Note that if Santana "regresses" we are still looking at a very respectable ERA in the mid-3s. Unless Santana is paying a bounty to every position player who gets outs behind him and that's why he appears lucky, I think he'll finish near his recent career norms. If the rest of the pitching staff were better this year, I think we could start talking about pitch framing making a difference. Considering how often we see Gimenez on the field, I'm not sure the Twins buy it all that much yet either.
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Yes. I'm not trying to say fWAR is bad, although it probably will be read that way by some people. It's just different, is all. In my opinion it could stand to be revised. The other WAR variants have all been revised/updated as new insights become available. fWAR always feels to me like it sticks out a bit, which may be part of why people like it I suppose. There is a strong craving for something that sticks out in the sea of metrics that is baseball stats, esp. if people think outlying stats = predicting the future.
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There are a few variants of WAR. As far as I know, Fangraphs is the only one that uses FIP for pitchers. The other systems all use Runs Allowed and then add a few other metrics in. In other words, the other variants are more granular. FIP is considered to be pretty weak nowadays. I'm not saying Fangraphs should move to Runs Allowed like the other systems, but they should strongly consider moving to xFIP or SIERA. Note that by using FIP, it is impossible for Fangraphs to consider the team defense behind the pitcher. The Fangraphs version of WAR does a couple of other idiosyncratic things that the other systems don't do, such as putting base stealing stats in with the batting stats. All of the other systems put it in baserunning. fWAR also does not consider double plays or distinguish between IF/OF hits. fWAR does not yet support pitch framing either, in spite the website of being a big proponent of it.
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Not much picking apart is required. A two second view of his stats shows that he was not good in the AL. Arrieta is going on record saying he is tired/fatigued from overwork. He will be 32 when the Twins could get him on the field. How much would the Twins pay for a guy who feels like he is cooked?
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There are a lot of tough choices ahead.
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Arrieta was terrible when he played in the AL.
