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Doomtints

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Everything posted by Doomtints

  1. Doomtints
    Buxton's WAA is 1.1. He is an above average MLB position player at age 23. He also has the top WAR of any position player on the team. Disappointing is not a word to describe Buxton. Developing is a better fit. He will eventually pull his own with his bat, and when he does he will be the most important player on the team.
  2. Doomtints
    If Santana or Dozier are moved before 2018 it will be over the winter. For Santana it makes sense to keep him until July of next year. Dozier can go during the offseason for pitching prospects. Fini, mic drop, whatever.
  3. Doomtints
    It's interesting to me how few pitchers the Twins have who have been used in any high leverage situations at all. Molitor, for whatever reason, leans heavily on a couple of pitchers and never tests the others. There are guys with good ERAs who are never used when it matters. I truly do not understand him.
  4. Doomtints
    Good analysis, and deservedly biting when it comes to the handling of Vargas. There is zero reason to panic based on these numbers and write-up. Sure, adding an all-star bat or two would help, but that's always true. The only thing I would say is that the Twins hitting is OK, but the run scoring isn't good enough. Panicking over the latter would break the former, however. The core of this team is still very young. The runs will come.
  5. Doomtints
    Yes. There's nothing for it but to light half of the position players on fire and ignore the pitching for another year.
  6. Doomtints
    Seems the familiar end-of-season blues is hitting the Twins again. We can hope they snap out of it and don't completely throw in the towel as the season winds down. Both teams ahead of them are on losing streaks. If the players are upset, there is time and space enough to prove their masters were wrong. The division is by no means decided. At the very least, the players can make things interesting.
  7. Doomtints
    You are asking the right question -- why don't managers make more -- but for the purpose of this discussion you are making an apples-to-oranges comparison. Managers make what they make because of the market, not because they're worth less than the worst free agents. Who would you pick to manage the 1991 Twins: Terry Leach or Tom Kelly? Should the 2016 Cubs have just let David Ross manage the team? Besides, salaries:WAR is a false correlation, in the general sense. Paydays happen when hitting the arbitration and free agent milestones, and if anything it's based on WAA.
  8. Doomtints
    Disagree. Hitters have split tendencies. How do you know who to play? Who to pinch hit? Wrong decision = outs. Defense is important to close out ballgames. When do you make the change? Wrong decision = giving up runs. Knowing to switch a pitcher before the meltdown occurs, and to whom, is incredibly important. Wrong decision = giving up multiple runs. When do you give the signal to bunt? To steal? To shift? Wrong decisions = fewer baserunners on offense, more on defense. How do you keep tired players motivated come September? How do you communicate bad news? When do you know to suggest an adjustment at the plate? Can you recognize when a pitcher is tipping? Wrong decisions = fewer hits, more run allowed. The manager is everything and can factor into 50-100 points on the winning percentage. Ask the Cubs or Indians what they think about the importance of managers.
  9. Doomtints
    The Twins will have 4 players leaving via free agency, plus another 6 RPs they could conceivably cut without costing them anything (and a couple of them will be cut for sure). As you say, there won't be a roster problem.
  10. Doomtints
    Don't be bummed! The August schedule hasn't changed and the Twins only lost 1 player, Kintzler. If they keep doing what they were doing, they will finish well.
  11. Doomtints
    How is that definite? Ryan's criteria was "cheap" and "will actually talk to us knowing we're so cheap." If a peak era Johan Santana fit that criteria Ryan would have signed him....
  12. Doomtints
    There are advantages to keeping Dozier and Santana. This is a "grass is always greener" thing. If either of those were gone, we would now be griping about the quality of the return.
  13. Doomtints
    The problem is the position players developed a lot faster than the front office expected. The pitching now sticks out like a sore thumb, and it was a liability even last year. For a rebuild, ya gotta try to keep the two pipelines reasonably synced or you risk perpetual rebuilds. The Twins are going to have to open up the pocketbook to address the pitching problem and a lot of us recognized this before the season started. I don't buy the idea that the new front office didn't know this for one second, I think they were caught off-guard by the huge improvement on defense and continued improvement on offense. They don't need to break the bank, they don't need to overpay, even as little as two average relievers and nothing more would have made a huge difference. I'm betting that if they could do the offseason over again, they would have picked up a couple of arms.
  14. Doomtints
    I agree, he is completely lost when it comes to managing pitching. He is better than last year, mind you, so there's improvement. Clearly the improvement has not been good enough, however. But I don't think this alone means he can get fired before the season ends. As for the double-switch fiasco, don't forget Tom Kelly also made a fool of himself in the 87 WS after boasting that managing in the NL would be a piece of cake. Kelly stuck around a bit longer after 87.
  15. Doomtints
    Woah, the ink isn't even dry on the trades and we're already on firing Molitor. I don't know of any mid-season firing of a .500 manager in recent history. Steinbrenner probably did it to Billy Martin a couple of times, sure, but beyond that? Like him or hate him, Molitor has not done anything to warrant being fired, and don't forget the Pohlad pledge that Molitor would have a job through this season.
  16. Doomtints
    I think they did a great job. They upgraded Ynoa to two better prospects. Kintzler's loss will be felt this year and they will have to address it during the offseason. Dozier/Santana still have another year around these parts, so it only makes sense to trade them for immediate contributors. That's a tough trade to pull off. Contenders don't sell at the trade deadline, talent swap trades usually happen during the offseason. If it turns out as you predict -- a couple more #4-#5 starters or relievers -- isn't this where the Twins are lacking?
  17. Doomtints
    Dozier leaving wouldn't change much on the team bottom line unless he is the genius engineer mentoring this team to play near .500.
  18. Doomtints
    Being out the past 5 weeks probably helped that more than anything.
  19. Doomtints
    If it were me, I would have waited until after the Dodgers series to decide whether to buy or sell. But you know what? The Twins upgraded the team by doing this, they were smart not to wait. The two moves together are masterful. They showed some elite sophistication not seen in these parts since the Pierzynski trade.
  20. Doomtints
    What contender would want Santiago? Waste of time. If necessary, just promote a AAA player for the playoff push instead....
  21. Doomtints
    I should add that it's a closed system / zero sum system. The total # of points in the pool will always be the same.
  22. Doomtints
    Littell - Scouted by Barragan in mid-May. Barragan projects him as a #5 or a long reliever. I know nothing about Barragan's projection accuracy. I respectfully disagree with him here, I think Littell has the potential of being a #3 if he continues to improve. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M58hr9OodC0&feature=youtu.be Enns - A Tommy John alum and scouts have the usual skepticism that goes along with that. Projects to be a #4 guy in the majors, at best, in spite of his great numbers in the minors. I can see him being a #3 and possibly a #2 in his peak years. This was a good trade for the Twins, they flipped a #3 rental for two pitchers who may also end up being #3s. As we know, the organization is lacking in #3s. Good move.
  23. Doomtints
    I have not worked on it this year as I'm busy with a different project, so I can't tell you where the teams are rated right now... though I can calculate it later today if there is interest. Here are the pieces: Run Differential Home W-L, home losses are penalized +20%, and home wins are further adjusted by home stadium park factors, multi-year v. current year. Road W-L, road wins are boosted +20%. Team hitting WAA, team pitching WAA, also adjusted by home park factors The result goes into an algorithm that produces a normalized result (bell curve), with most teams in the 45-55 score range. Good teams score over 55, very good teams over 60. Great teams are in the 70-80 range. As the season goes on and the sample size grows, teams get pulled to the middle of the scale. Finally, to produce expected W-L records, the score is compared v. all baseball team W-L records since 1902. The algorithm produces the answer to this question, "Past teams who had this score after X games had W-L record Y, but also finished with W-L record Z" using similar normalizing formula. We can then see if the team's current W-L record is performing to norms or not, and make a prediction as to where they will end up at the end of the year. As I said, I haven't run this at all this year. However, here's a write-up I did for a friend regarding the Cubs at the end of last year who was convinced his team was probably the top team in history.
  24. Doomtints
    It will still take major moves to improve both the bullpen and the starting pitching to an acceptable level, but the task is by no means insurmountable.
  25. Doomtints
    BaseRuns and Pythagorean are both based on run differentials. The latter is straight up run differential, the former is someone's approximation of run differential derived from how many runs they believe will be produced by certain hitting/baserunning events. You may run into the word "sequencing" when reading about BaseRuns, which isn't quite what it's doing but it's the best way to describe it as it includes all offense except for outs. I have studied both systems extensively as I designed a third system which does something similar but includes historical league information to predict the future based on how similar teams performed in the past. My system is more accurate. If I can blow both of these systems away I'm sure anyone around here could do the same thing with a bit of work. After spending a lot of time looking at how these two systems work, it's easy to predict when they will break and how much they will be off.
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