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harmony55

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Everything posted by harmony55

  1. harmony55
    FWIW over the past two seasons Jorge Polanco has posted a 119 wRC+ and 3.3 fWAR in 184 games while Seattle utility player Dylan Moore has posted a 118 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR in 171 games. Polanco is guaranteed $11.25 million, including the buyout of the 2025 team option, while Moore, who is a year older than Polanco, has two years and a guaranteed $6.565 million remaining on his contract. As of today, the Mariners plan to cover second and third base with Luis Urias, Josh Rojas and Moore.
  2. harmony55
    FWIW I have been a Seattle Mariners fan since moving to the Pacific Northwest in 1994 although my childhood hero was Harmon Killebrew when I was growing up a Twins fan in Iowa.
  3. harmony55
    Was Ken Rosenthal speculating when he wrote: "The Mariners still would like to add one more bat in the infield so they are not as reliant on Josh Rojas at second and Luis Urias at third."? Rosenthal failed to attribute that sentiment to anyone associated with the Mariners. In Sunday's article, Seattle Times beat reporter Ryan Divish provided extensive quotes from Mariner PBO Jerry Dipoto. In those quotes Dipoto never mentioned the infield specifically.
  4. harmony55
    One comp for Sean Manaea might be Anthony DeSclafani, who shared time with Manaea in the San Francisco rotation last year. With the Giants in 2023 Manaea posted 1.1 fWAR over 117.2 innings in 37 appearances, including 10 starts. DeSclafani posted 1.0 fWAR over 99.2 innings in 19 appearances, including 18 starts. The big difference is that Manaea finished strong after a slow start while concerning injuries undermined DeSclafani's season after a stellar first month. Manaea landed the two-year, $28 million contract with the New York Mets while DeSclafani, who has since been traded to the Seattle Mariners, has one year and $12 million remaining on his contract.
  5. harmony55
    After 14 years in the organization, Jorge Polanco deserves his status as a fan favorite. The best forum posts avoid use of "I" and "you." Make an exception to pay another contributor a compliment. Eleanor Roosevelt was quoted: "Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people."
  6. harmony55
    For rotation depth, the Mariners have effectively replaced one year of nine-year MLB veteran Marco Gonzales at $12.25 million for one year of nine-year MLB veteran Anthony DeSclafani at $12 million. Seattle welcomes that depth. Circumstances change. When Seattle signed Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract in November 2021, Luis Castillo was not on the Mariners. Logan Gilbert was coming off a rookie season with an ERA+ of 88 in 24 starts. George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo had never thrown an MLB pitch. The Mariners now have at least four years of team control over the current rotation of Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Miller and Woo. The $73 million owed Ray was too expensive as insurance against an almost inevitable attrition in the rotation.
  7. harmony55
    Seattle says no because the Mariners have a far greater need for Anthony DeSclafani and Emerson Hancock as rotation depth than the M's have for Jorge Polanco with Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore, Sam Haggerty and, perhaps eventually, Ryan Bliss covering second base and third base.
  8. harmony55
    FanGraphs projects Jorge Polanco with a 2024 WAR of 2.5 in 141 games (.0177 per game) and Luis Urias with a 2024 WAR of 2.0 in 110 games (.0818 per game). The 30-year-old Polanco has played 184 games over the past two seasons while the 26-year-old Urias has played 171 games over that period. FanGraphs projections are down on 29-year-old Josh Rojas but over the past two seasons Polanco has posted 3.3 fWAR in 184 games while Rojas posted 3.8 fWAR in 230 games. Polanco is guaranteed $11.25 million, including the buyout of the 2025 option, while Urias and Rojas are projected to earn 2024 salaries of $4.7 million and $3.5 million, respectively. We can agree that the Twins and Mariners don't match up in a trade.
  9. harmony55
    The Athletic reports that "The Giants are also throwing in roughly $6 million to make the deal cash-neutral in 2024, when Ray will make $23 million and Haniger/DeSclafani are owed a combined $29 million." https://theathletic.com/5182003/2024/01/05/giants-robbie-ray-mariners-trade/ That math makes no sense but the deal reportedly is cash-neutral for the Mariners in 2024. In other words, on Friday the Mariners added two outfielders and a veteran starter without adding to the 2024 payroll. Roster Resource currently lists Luis Urias and Josh Rojas securely in the the eighth and ninth slots in the Seattle lineup: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/mariners The Mariners were secure enough in their infield depth to trade away Jose Caballero.
  10. harmony55
    Coming off Tommy John surgery, Robbie Ray is unlikely to pitch until August this year. Anthony DeSclafani should provide depth the entire season. Ray won the Cy Young with a 2.84 ERA over 32 starts in 2021 when DeSclafani posted a 3.17 ERA in 31 starts. DeSclafani is currently slotted sixth on Seattle's starter depth chart, just ahead of rookie Emerson Hancock.
  11. harmony55
    Roster Resource hands Seattle's second base over to Josh Rojas, who last year gave the Mariners 1.2 fWAR in 46 games. As a point of reference, last year Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. Luis Urias is projected to be the starting third baseman in Seattle. The Mariners should have little interest in taking on Polanco's $11.25 million in guaranteed money.
  12. harmony55
    Seattle likely has interest in Max Kepler but would prefer its in-house options at second base and third base over Jorge Polanco. The Mariners are unlikely to deplete their pitching depth by trading Bryan Woo unless another starter is coming in via trade or a free agent signing.
  13. harmony55
    Seattle is unlikely to trade its ace for a declining 30-year-old infielder and an outfielder with a career strikeout rate of 33.6 percent. With a crowded Mariner bullpen, Griffin Jax does not move the needle. As the free agent contracts come in for Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Shota Imanaga, the trade value of Castillo should only rise. Baseball Trade Values has already made a recent upward adjustment in the righthander's value.
  14. harmony55
    On another forum, a contributor calculated the 2023 WAR rate per 600 plate appearances for second basemen Jorge Polanco of the Twins and Josh Rojas and Jose Caballero of the Mariners: Polanco 2.62 Rojas 5.37 Caballero 4.71 https://www.marinertalk.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=8790&start=1110#p276363 Polanco may well have value to a team other than the Mariners. Probably the Twins.
  15. harmony55
    The Marlins are unlikely to add $15 million to their 2024 payroll by acquiring one year of Max Kepler and one year and an option of Jorge Polanco (two players past their 30th birthdays).
  16. harmony55
    In his ZiPS writeup on December 13, FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski projected 85-90 wins for the 2024 Seattle Mariners before the signing of Mitch Garver but after Jarred Kelenic, Teoscar Hernandez and Eugenio Suarez were jettisoned: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/ Seattle's starting rotation and bullpen are highly touted but the Mariners also return three position players who last year combined for 15.5 fWAR (in their age 22, 26 and 28 seasons). Early last month Seattle PBO Jerry Dipoto said the Mariners were pursuing a designated hitter and "1-1/2 corner outfielders." The M's have since signed Garver to DH. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/jerry-dipoto-discusses-mariners-offseason-plans-2.html After clearing payroll, the Mariners remain in the market to complement their strong core of position players.
  17. harmony55
    Seattle has its own financial constraints and is unlikely to take on the combined $21 million owed Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler this year, much less the annual $25 million-plus needed to land Blake Snell. The Mariners may well have interest in Kepler but have little need for Polanco. Last season Seattle received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero. As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. For Seattle, the 29-year-old Rojas and 27-year-old Caballero each accrued 2023 WAR at a per-game rate that matched or exceeded that of Polanco. A platoon might not be necessary. The Mariners await the projected 2024 debut of intriguing prospect Ryan Bliss, a starting second baseman in the 2023 Futures Game and Defensive Player of the Year in the Arizona Fall League. Last year across Double A and Triple A, the now 24-year-old Bliss posted a .304/.378/.524/.902 line with 23 home runs and 55 stolen bases. Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.
  18. harmony55
    Last season the Seattle Mariners received 1.2 fWAR in 46 games from Josh Rojas and 2.2 fWAR in 104 games from rookie Jose Caballero. That’s a combined 3.4 fWAR in 150 games from the potential 2024 second-base platoon of the lefthand-hitting Rojas and righthand-hitting Caballero. As a point of reference, last season 30-year-old Jorge Polanco posted 1.5 fWAR in 80 games. Seattle has offseason needs but Polanco would add little to the roster.
  19. harmony55
    Thank you for the feedback. Max Kepler has been rumored to be a trade candidate this offseason and this thread discusses a possible Twins acquisition of Ty France. Offered was a comparison of some metrics for the two players: a one-time All Star with two years of team control and a never-All Star with one year of team control. Kepler is more valuable to the Mariners than Jorge Polanco but, as noted, the teams probably don't match up in a trade. BTW the chances that the Twins retain Polanco increased Saturday when the Red Sox apparently filled their need at second base. Polanco may well continue his purposeful role with Twins.
  20. harmony55
    The Twins would save an estimated $2.8 million in 2024 with a trade of Max Kepler to Seattle for first baseman Ty France. The deal would be a classic trading high on one year of Kepler coming off a good season and buying low on two years of France coming off a disappointing season. Steamer projects Kepler with a 2024 WAR of 2.3 in 133 games while projecting France with a 2024 WAR of 2.2 in 149 games. Kepler, who has a career wRC+ of 103, is projected with a 2024 wRC+ of 116 while France, who has a career wRC+ of 117, is projected with a 2024 wRC+ of 118. Kepler's historically strong defensive metrics dipped a tad in 2023 while France's historically strong defensive metrics absolutely tanked in 2023. The Fielding Bible had Kepler as a Top 5 defensive right fielder in 2021 and 2022 while ranking France as a Top 5 defensive first baseman in 2021 and a Top 10 defensive first baseman in 2022: https://archive.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2021.asp https://archive.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally.asp Kepler, who is 17 months older than France, is owed $10 million in the final year of his contract. France remains under team control for two seasons working off his projected 2024 salary of $7.2 million. There's probably not a match but that's how they compare.😉
  21. harmony55
    The Just Baseball Fans podcast offers an offseason plan for the Twins:
  22. harmony55
    Seattle hopes to improve on this year's team wRC+ of 107, which ranked sixth in the league, two slots behind the 109 wRC+ posted by the Twins. The Mariners have shed the 2023 wRC+ of Jarred Kelenic (108), Teoscar Hernandez (105) and Eugenio Suarez (102), plus part-timers Tom Murphy (140) and Mike Ford (123). The M's have added Mitch Garver, who posted a 2023 wRC+ of 138. Like most teams, the Mariners have postseason needs,
  23. harmony55
    Steamer projects Ty France, who has a career wRC+ of 117, with a 2024 wRC+ of 118. Steamer projects Jorge Polanco, who has a career wRC+ of 111, with a 2024 wRC+ of 110. France has a career strikeout rate of 17.6 percent after posting a strikeout rate of 17.6 percent this year. Polanco has a career strikeout rate of 18.2 percent after posting strikeout rate of 25.7 percent this year. France's defensive metrics at first base tanked this year after two solid seasons and have historically been far better than Polanco's dismal defensive metrics. Steamer projects France with a 2024 WAR of 2.3 in 149 games and Polanco with a 2024 WAR of 2.5 in 141 games. If a $10.5 million salary is pocket change then a $7.2 million salary can be found between the sofa cushions. Polanco is guaranteed $11.25 million, counting the $750,000 buyout of the $12 million club option for 2025. The choice would be up to two years of France working off a projected 2024 salary of $7.2 million versus one year of Polanco at $11.25 million or two years at $22.5 million. The problem with the proposed trade is that Seattle has little need for Polanco with Luis Urias, Josh Rojas, Jose Caballero, Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss available at second base and/or third base. Seattle podcasters have floated a proposal of two years of France for one year of Max Kepler at $10 million, saving the Twins nearly $3 million while adding a year of team control.
  24. harmony55
    Seattle blogs and podcasts frequently mention Max Kepler as a trade target for the Mariners. Predictably the Seattle commentators think the trade cost should be low for one year of Kepler at $10 million. Presumably Minnesota fans have a contrasting view. What would it take for the Twins to part with Kepler in a trade with the Mariners? A fit might be difficult to find because Seattle is unlikely to trade from the current starting rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Emerson Hancock or bullpen pieces could be available. Thoughts?
  25. harmony55
    FWIW an offseason report on Seattle righthander Bryce Miller:
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