ChrisKnutson

Since Gibby, Odorizzi, and Pineda are all gonna be gone next year, we’re gonna need some experience in the rotation, why not sign Gonzalez to a 2-3yr deal and then trade Odorizzi right after, still leaving an opening in the rotation for Romero/Mejia.

Not a fan of bringing in Buchholz, and not because he isn’t good, it’s just that he isn’t on the field enough to be worth anything more than 1yr/$3M. I’d rather we roll the dice on Gio Gonzalez, who’s seems like he’s only the decline, yet at the same time is still a quality left hander capable of giving us 170 innings. James Shields wouldn’t be a bad option either, as he did pitch 204.2 innings in 2018.

This may be too optimistic, but I feel next year’s starting rotation conversation must start with the trio of Berrios, Romero, and Graterol being locks. And while we could choose to round out the rest of the rotation internally with either Mejia, Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe, or Enlow, I’ve always felt there should be at least one veteran on each staff, whether that’s through free agency or an acquisition, I don’t really care, the most important thing is whether, or not, this veteran is a reliable source of innings. Then again, there is a possibility that we’re big players for either Gerrit Cole, Zach Wheeler, or Julio Teheran next offseason.

While it’d be nice if we could acquire a SP who could be controlled beyond 2019, I really don’t see it happening. And even if we were to, it probably be Julio Teheran or Mike Minor. Which is why right now free agency is our best bet. There’s plenty of affordable options left, the problem is whether, or not, the FO is willing to spend. The only realistic FA starting pitchers for us left are James Shields and Anibal Sanchez, but is it really worth the risk signing either of them to a 2 year deal?? Sanchez is still questionable, even after a bounce back season in Atlanta, while Shields is more of a quantity over quality kinda guy now that he’s older (204.2 IP in 2018). Derek Holland and Wade Miley are obviously better options, but Holland has stated that he prefers to stay in the NL, while Miley is probably not gonna want to come to a non-contender when teams like the Nats, Brewers, and Reds are pursuing him. While the FO said they’d like to add another starter, they also said they’d prefer if it were a LH starter, which automatically makes Gio Gonzalez a likely candidate, but after years of pitching for the Nats, Gonzalez has built up quite the nice track record, meaning he ‘might’ cost more than the FO is willing spend. And then there’s castaways like Drew Pomeranz, Martin Perez, and Shelby Miller. Of those three, Miller is the only one I’d be comfortable with starting games, but even he might have to be moved to the pen at some point, given his recent struggles/health issues. And while Perez might not be on our radar as a SP, as a LHP who’s capable of throwing 95 plus, he could be an interesting option for the bullpen. Then again, we could always sign Bartolo...

I know Cave had a nice (rookie) year, while Kepler’s was a frustrating one, but are you really gonna crown someone who didn’t even amass 300 at-bats the starting LFer?? While I agree with the premise of the article that Kep’s one of the building block for the future, I don’t necessarily have a problem with having him facing some competition in 2019, throw him at 1B if you have to, but at the end of the day I believe that Kepler’s gonna be a cornerstone in the Twins OF for years to come, and none of Cave, Wade, or even Kirilloff (move Rosie to DH) is gonna change that (unless he gets traded). All the tools are there, we just have to be patient. and eventually we’ll be rewarded with player somewhere in between Yasiel Puig (at worst) and Christian Yelich (at best).

I know this article is about our internal options at Rochester, but I’m going take it step further and look at our options in High A and AA. Last year Cody Stashak made a near complete transition from starter to reliever, and it was a huge success as he posted 2.87 ERA/1.073 WHIP/11.2 SO/9. While he’s likely headed for AAA to start the season, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s first to get called up next season. Velocity and stuff alone make Jorge Alcala the Twins best internal option, but does the FO see him as starter or a reliever?? He’s made relief appearances before, but with his kind of stuff, it’s likely that the FO will continue to develop him as a starter, but like Fernando Romero, he’s definitely someone who could thrive in 1-2 inning max effort role. Starting the 2018 season in Cedar Rapids, LH reliever Jovani Moran eventually pitched his way to Fort Myers and could could possibly pitch his way into the Twins immediate plans if Moya/Vasquez faulter and he continues where he left off (2.25 ERA/1.053 WHIP/12.7 SO/9). Making 10 appearances in the Arizona Fall League, Hector Lujan didn’t pitch as well as he would’ve liked, but after a very good year in Fort Myers (2.64 ERA/1.256 WHIP/8.5 SO/9), not only is he set to open the season in AA, he’s now put himself in a good position to be called up for a cup of coffee at some point during the 2019 season.

I know no two pitchers are the same when coming back from injury (especially TJ), but Trevor May’s performance last year almost makes me wanna take a chance on David Phelps, who before tearing his UCL, was just starting to become one of the better relief pitchers in the game. Obviously, I’d much rather sign Britton, Kimbrel, Ottavino, Robertson, and Miller but since we’re not pursuing those type of markets this offseason, signing Phelps to a 2yr/$10M deal doesn’t seem like an unreasonable gamble; one season to get back on his feet, another to go out and prove he’s the same guy he was in 2016-17. The result may not be an elite bullpen, but if we can end the offseason, at the very least, having signed Phelps, Blake Parker, and Cody Allen, I’ll have nothing to complain about.

Not saying they’re gonna be a studs right away, but don’t be surprised when Romero’s first full season is much like Berrios’ in 2017 (maybe better) and Graterol’s making starts in September. And because these three all have the potential to have long successful careers, locking them up to early extensions may not be such a bad idea.

Celestino and Raley are both nice pieces, but if we’re talking top 15 Twins prospects, no question am I replacing them with Arraez and Jeffers.

Yeah, the goal is to win, but if you think you can get a “well above average” return from dealing him, why not?? Besides, we should be building our rotation around Berrios, Graterol, and Romero, not an inconsistent pitcher coming off a career year and is entering his 30’s. At the same time, I do understand locking him up now for the right price may be a smart move, but if it’s for typical FA money, I don’t want any part of that.

Looking at the list of guys available, obviously Richie Martin is gonna stand out as the best player available, but looking closer I’ve found that there are a several quality arms available in this draft. If we want to add to our bullpen we could draft either Riley Ferrell or Art Warren as they both are pretty much ML ready (like Jake Reed). Guys that could give us innings and make a couple starts are Spencer Adams, Jordan Romano, and Roniel Raudes. And If we’re by chance we’re still looking for the next Johan, then Carlos Herrera, Domingo Robles, and Breiling Eusebio (recovering from TJ) are the guys with the most upside/projection.

If giving out 1 year deals was the plan going into the offseason then I really don’t under stand why the FO didn’t trade Gibson and Odorizzi at the deadline last season. However, with the Winter Meetings going on, the opportunity still presents itself with playoff teams like the Yankees, A’s, and the Astros all in the market for starting pitching. And because you can’t predict injuries, a down year, or the possibility that the last season was an anomaly, right now might be the last chance to capitalize on Gibby and Odorizzi’s value. Getting value out of Odorizzi may be tough since he’s expected to make $9.4M in 2019, which is a little expensive for mediocrity, but it’s still possible depending on who else you add to the deal (Cave/Hildy). However, when it comes to dealing Gibby, there’s no reason why he wouldn’t bring back a quality return. He’s coming off a career year and is expected to make $7.9M, which is more than reasonable for the way he pitched last season, which is why Gibby should atleast be worth a B prospect and a average ML ready piece. And since Oakland literally has no SP depth (or quality arms), and isn’t really in the FA market looking for starting pitching, they seem like the perfect match (Richie Martin/Frankie Montas/Yerdel Vargas).

I’d be nice if we could get rid of Odorizzi as well, but if not this offseason, than at least we’re setting ourselves up for big-ish returns next summer at the trade deadline with Castro/Pineda/Schoop/Cron/ and Reed all being FA next offseason as well.

I know I already posted about the possibility of building a “homegrown” bullpen, but since we’re on the topic of “who’s a starter” and “who’s not” (specifically Stewart/Mejia); Why not just cash in on Gibby’s career year (Odorizzi too) and start the season with a rotation of Berrios/Pineda/Romero/Mejia/Stewart and the occasional use of the “opener” strategy?? I know it’s not what we would’ve hoped for going into the offseason, but with Schoop and Cron likely being the “big additions” of the offseason, we might as well give young arms like Stewart/Romero/Gonsalves/Thorpe/Mejia/Graterol/Alcala and whoever we get back for Gibby and Odorizzi plenty of chances to prove themselves in 2019. Might not give us the best chance at being competitive, but who knows?? The Rays made it work.

If Kep’s a below average player, then why are so many teams interested in him?? Simultaneously, why trade Kep if he’s about to breakout?? And why attach Romero and Lewis to the very same deal?? This is the why I’m not a fan of trading for “Thor,” because they’ll “undervalue” guys like Kepler and Romero, but overvalue Syndergaard to the point where Lewis is has to be included. In other words, I think other teams are trying to rip us off, and why wouldn’t they?? I just hope the FO doesn’t fall for it.

Castro’s not gonna be around in 2020, Jeffers and Rortvedt may still be in the minors, and I’m not sure what to expect Astudillo, sooo what’s the plan here?? Still holding out hope that Garver can stay behind the plate, but realistically we’re probably gonna need expensive “backup.” Then again, ‘if’ Sano rebuilds his stock next season, maybe he could involved in some sort of blockbuster revolving around him and New York’s Gary Sanchez next offseason.

Since we decided to go the cheap route by signing Schoop and Cron, I’m really hoping they’re now setting their sights on signing 1-2 of the big bullpen arms on the free agent market. However, when it comes to Stewart, I say you give him a shot to start in ST, but unless something drastically changes about the situation or his performance, just put him in the pen; In similar role that the Astros put Colin McHugh and Brad Peacock (former starters). Even if we don’t sign any of Parker, Herrera, Britton, or Allen, looking beyond 2019, I’m confident that the Twins could potentially have a strong homegrown bullpen with young young arms like Jovani Moran, Derek Molina, Cody Stashak, and (especially) Jorge Alcala starting to reach the upper levels of the minors. And depending on how the rotation situation plays out, Thorpe, Mejia, and Stewart could be included as well.

Even though I’m extremely underwhelmed/disappointed, at the very least, I’m happy that the Twins gained 2-3 possible trade candidates for next year’s deadline.

Not a fan of this signing, or the way the FO has approached this offseason so far. Yeah we have a lot of untapped potential throughout our lineup, but even our “numbers driven” FO understands this (most of us at TD even understand this), you can’t score runs if you can’t get on base... Think about it, our FO could’ve easily signed Cruz/Lowrie/Murphy/LeMahieu/Dietrich, they could’ve traded for C. Santana, we could’ve easily been the favorites to win the division, and yet this is the best they can do?? Something’s up, because I know they’re smarter than this.

If the goal is to win the division (not sure if it is), than the FO better be quick about acquiring Santana, and signing Cruz and Lowrie before other teams take advantage of their small markets. And it’s not like these guys are your regular journeymen, nor are they young studs who’ll command +$100M each, these are veterans who play at an all-star caliber level, not to mention that they’re all relatively affordable and likely to sign for 1-2 years; keeping the seat warm for Lewis/Rooker/Gordon/Kirilloff/Larnach/Jeffers, along with with keeping us in contention. Altogether, these three will probably cost $80M total,, so why not “go all in” if it’s not gonna financially cripple us (or even make a dent). Obviously we still would need some bullpen help, but with the pitching depth we got, I’m pretty sure we can make due without spending +$30M on bullpens arms. The only big name bullpen arms I’d sign this offseason are Cody Allen and Zach Britton (1 year “prove it” contracts), other than them, I say we go after possible bargains like David Phelps, A.J. Ramos, Drew Storen, etc. The stars are aligning, take advantage of it and we could easily win the division this year, the next, and so forth (depending on the development of our core).

I know the Twins just signed Cron, but assuming the M’s don’t wanna take on Santana’s contract, I could see the FO dealing Cron/Odorizzi/Castro as way of offsetting some of that cash. If not, and the M’s eat ‘at least’ half of Santana’s contract, than I’d bet on young ML’s like Cave, Hildenberger, Slegers, Curtiss, Austin, De Jong, and or Littell being dealt (along with a couple prospects).

Same, but I really don’t like the idea of having Austin, someone who only plays 1B/DH, as the 25th man. Better use of that 25th roster spot would be signing Billy Hamilton to be our 4th OF/pinch runner/emergency 2B. And it’s not like Cron and Austin are our only 1B options, we got Kepler/Sano/Garver.

Simply put, if Wolfson’s report is correct, then signing both Cruz and Lowrie to 1-2 year deals must become our top priority(s). Now that’s not to say the bullpen isn’t area of need, it’s just that the match is too perfect for the Twins not to take advantage of, especially when the division is as weak as it is right now.

I’ll be surprised if Austin stays with the organization, let alone the 25-man roster. As unfortunate as it is for Austin (and his dad), Cron makes him irrelevant, which is why I’m hoping the Twins deal him for more pitching.

I understand dumping Grossman was a necessary evil, but replacing him (and Mauer) with Cron (.323 OBP in 2018) just doesn’t make any sense other than the fact that he hit 30 HRs last season, which may not happen again. It may be too late, but perhaps the FO can pivot and still swing a deal for, on-base machine, C. Santana (.352 OBP in 2018), because I gotta believe Dipoto is now itching to get rid of that Santana contract now (which could work in our favor).