DocBauer

Not disagreeing on CF as a need. I've just been torn all offseason what they needed more since they only had room to add ONE: 1] A viable CF who can cover for Buxton and help the offense from the bottom of the order, more than likely. Or... 2] Add the power bat like Duvall or Pham and trust Castro with some CF backup duty, knowing you have Martin sitting at AAA waiting, and Helman and Keirsey as non 40 man options that could be added if and when necessary. So I began to lean toward the power bat, particularly Duvall as he's neutral on splits and could play daily if someone goes down. And we'll never know what conversations took place behind closed doors. But I agree you would have thought Taylor and Duvall would have recognized opportunity with a good ball club like the Twins, as well as their current unemployment situation, and been banging on the Twins door for a job at $5-8M for 1yr. Seems like a disconnect on someone's part. But I do like that Margot kind of fills both rolls, especially if his knee feels good for 2024, even if he's less of a pure power threat than Duvall.

I'm sorry. I was distracted at work and so much reading and typing, lol. I knew that too!🤪 Thank you for correcting me!

Something that really struck me was point #2 in the Parker post: 2. pitcher’s arm care work involves working both sides (arm & glove side) for strength/stability. Seriously, does this need to be said? I guess I had never thought of it before, always just thinking about the health of a pitcher's arm. So I guess I never really thought about the same kind of hard work on the opposite side of the body. Now it seems to me it should just be obvious. Perhaps it hasn't been so previously?? I think the one guy I'm a little worried about is Lewis as he had a couple different soft tissue issues last year. And I recall him saying something to the affect he thought it was due to playing more games in 2023 than his body had been used to the previous couple of seasons while being injured and rehabbing. That makes some sense. And I'm sure he's a very hard worker. But if there's one guy I'd really like Paparesta make sure is in optimal shape, it might be Royce.

I'm a big believer in Ober. And I've said previously I'm still not sure we've seen the best of him. Still think he can take his consistency up a notch. And while I'm a believer, I think I might want to wait until after 2024 to see him toss 160-170 innings yet again. Juuuuuust to make sure. With his age and control, I could be convinced to sign an extension with him, and buy out his first couple of seasons of FA. But that signs him through what, age 33? He's a smart enough guy that he might want to take the guaranteed $ that buys out those years. But he's also very confident in his ability, so he might want to take that FA "risk". I think an extension through 33yo works if the Twins and he can come to an agreeable, "fair" balance of raises each of those years for Ober without leaping in to the $20M range. Not sure exactly what those numbers would be, but surely they are smart enough to come up with a formula based on expected arbitration numbers and expected, potential offers beyond that, right? It also might make him more tradeable when...as hoped and expected...the other young arms in the system are arriving to push for a spot.

Or Schobel? Or Keaschall?

From what I've read and heard, I don't believe he's hurt any longer. I think it's more about being behind everyone else do they went this route to do so, while working on his new fastball. I'm guessing they did this instead of removing someone else from the 40 man?

From MLBTRADERUMORS, Winder has been placed on the 60 day as he's behind everyone with the shoulder/scapula fracture that slowed his offseason prep. Should be available late May if he's healthy and ramped up. Margot has 13 defensive runs saved as recently as 2021. He's been bothered some by a knee issue in 2022 that may have affected him some in 2023 as well. If the knee is good to go, I like this deal even better. Still not sure I wouldn't have just signed someone for 1yr and $5-8M instead, but a healthy Margot really does fill a lot of roles.

That's entirely possible. But I think the Twins really like him and see him as a real contributor this season and going forward. They just don't want to "trust" him being ready NOW and not having another depth piece behind him. I don't think he's moved unless it's part of a deal for a really, really nice arm that's got a couple years of control.

Tremendous post, and an absolutely fresh and original idea in how to examine payroll outlay for a team. Since only 2 teams in all of MLB...Atlanta and Toronto maybe?...are required to actually make public what their actual income is for a given season, speculation is all we can work with. But the reporting of payrolls IS something written in ink that can be verified. And attendance IS something written in ink that can be verified. I have to admit, I am surprised the Twins were that high on your list in $ per person in attendance. I am not a Pohlad family/ownership basher. I actually think the Twins have a pretty good ownership situation, and that was really proven to me during Covid when they were one of the very first teams to pay all of their minor leaguers, and all of their staff. A raise in payroll has been pretty consistent that past decade, and they've usually sat right at the median of league wise spending. I'm glad you brought up the Padres. But I'd also include the Rangers in an example of how extreme shifts are taking place on the front of MLB incomes. The Padres, if I remember right, still had an agreement with Bally and their parent company but Bally just pulled out. The Rangers were supposed to be paid something like $100M per season through 2032. They are now receiving approximately 85% of their previous expected number for 2024 on a 1yr deal that expires once the season is done. Don't think they went on a huge spending spree the past few years without counting on that $100M per season being there? Now what happens to them next offseason? They simply aren't going to find a new TV or streaming deal that's going to come close are they? Same with the Padres this season, under the MLB TV umbrella. Where I DO HAVE QUESTIONS AND CONCERNS with the Pohlad's is their profitability from the Twins. By that, let's assume a $300M income on average. That's based on nothing but educated guesses by other sources, but I use it as a reasonably sound starting point. So 50-52% of income goes to payroll. OK, so $156 is gone and accounted for, leaving the organization $144M to run everything else from minor leaguers and personnel, to ML personnel and the FO itself, to scouts, to advertising, to upgrades at Target Field, to travel-food-lodging expenses for the ML team. And we could go on and on and on. The problem is, we have no real idea how large of a final tab those kinds of things add up to. But ONLY for the sake of the point I'm trying to make, let's just say ALL of running the actual organization comes up to $110M. That would leave the Pohlad's a profit of $34M on the season in this example. I've never believed a business owner, including one who owns a sports franchise, should be expected to run their business in the red, or simply break even and make ZERO profit on a yearly basis. HOWEVER, when you have a quality team that is competitive, right on the precipice of maybe making some noise, it's not the time to cut back. In fact, that's EXACTLY the time when you are willing to take a small $M payout for a season or two to augment that team for a chance to win. And let's be honest, when a billionaire ownership owns a sports team, I'd bet...for the most part...that any income derived from that sports team doesn't even belong in the top 20 of their yearly income portfolio. So it's actually the appropriate time to "settle" for maybe a $12M profit that year. I mean, if you really don't care about the future value of your investment and really don't care to see them win and "go for it" once in a while, then why on earth do you even own the organization? And that's where I have my questions and issues. Now, if the Twins were to actually open their books...and it will never happen...and actually show that their team income is smaller than many speculate, and their total outlay is larger than many speculate, and they really only can afford a $130M budget to break even or bring in a small profit, I'm OK with that. But with all the unknowns involved, that's where a lot of "spirited debate" takes place. I'm not an apologist for the Twins ownership in any way. But I do have some reservations in regard to cost cutting when maybe a little less profit earned should be the way to go. It's going to get a whole lot crazier across MLB before all is said and done the next few years.

Not really when you consider 4 things: 1} It's really only for about half a year. 2} Gotta believe you're a big enough Twins fan to justify it no matter what, LOL. 3} The plan the Diamondbacks have set in place is for $99 a month to watch them. So the $80 is in line with what's out there for other teams. 4} Depending on how many TV's you have in your home, what you're paying for Youtube TV combined with Fubu isn't much different than your neighbor next door who's paying for regular cable. (He's going to have more channels, pay less $ per channel, but probably paying a little more than you would be).

You have to look at the larger picture of the team, and not just one spot, or one player, in my opinion. I found renewed faith in Martin with a strong finish to 2022, and his breakout performance in the AFL facing what is pretty much AA level pitching. The Twins brought him to ML camp last season, but he was out after a few games with a bad elbow. Now, fast forward, and Martin had a good OB%, stole some bases, and actually showed a little more power than he had previously. But he also only played a third of the season...his first at the AAA level...and hit a rather pedestrian .263. Yes, I know AVG isn't always the most telling stat, but that number concerns me a bit. So now the Twins give him the last spot and find room for him to play almost daily so he doesn't regress from sitting on the bench. What if he struggles and just isn't quite ready and needs more than the 1/3 of a season he got last year? Who comes up to replace him? Right or wrong, the FO is somewhat conservative when they build an initial roster. They want depth they feel they can count on to begin with, and understand/believe that the prospects simply will get their opportunities because the veteran ahead of them is either hurt, or just stinking up the joint. While I absolutely believe they waited way too long to bring up Wallner in 2023, it worked out just fine for Ober, Varland, and Julien. Agree or disagree with the general approach of the FO, there is a viable, logical plan in how they assemble the initial roster. And being 3 or 4 deep and making sure they have at least 1 veteran guy there makes more sense to them than being 2 or 3 deep. I'm much more intrigued and excited by Martin than I am Margot. But I do see the method in the madness.

Regarding Rayne Doncon, again, he's primarily a SS but has split his time between 3B and 2B pretty close even when not at SS. He's athletic and won't turn 21yo until late September. 16/21 in SB for a 76% success rate so far. Decent power and power potential. From what I'm reading, he barrels a fastball pretty well but is at least somewhat allergic to breaking stuff. (not much of a surprise there). Despite being a decent athlete, might not have the ability to stick at SS. Top 30 prospect in the Dodgers system wherever you look, as high as 19 with the Athletic. So again, he's not just a throwaway.

While I'm not a fan of losing the potential of Miller, I actually like this deal. Not having cash coming back, and not having the young prospect coming back, I would have liked this deal less. Miller has got a ML glove right now. But there are still real questions about the bat, though that's not unusual for a young 20-21yo kid in A ball. Doncon has primarily played SS so far in his brief career...80 games there....and a split of 52 and 45 games between 2B and 3B. He appears to have some speed (SB ability) as well as XB power. Unfortunately, his actual hitting took a down turn in 2023 after an OK stateside debut in 2022. But the Dodgers are pretty good at finding and signing talent, so while he's a long way from MLB, I don't think this is just a dismissive flier. Margot is no stud, but he's a balance of Taylor vs Duvall/Pham. Instead of adding a RH bat that could play either CF with speed and some power, OR a corner OF with bigger power, they end up with a player who gives the ability to play all 3 spots and is a little bit of a mix of all options, with speed and at least a little power. He's only a 91 OPS+ for his career, which is not great, when facing RHP. But he's got a career 119 OPS+ against LHP. Do I like or hate that we traded a prospect that's a bit risky, but offers some potentially high reward, for what is probably a 1yr deal? Well, he fills a need for this year that I like a heck of a lot better than any Kiki Hernandez possibility, and he doesn't block anyone going forward. But unless there's some more $ coming back to help cover his 2025 option, he's a 1 and done. That part I'm not totally happy with, but then again, he's not blocking anyone going forward, and we got an interesting prospect back that I don't think we should easily dismissed. I still think I would have just signed Duvall or Pham for 1yr and $5-7M...if possible...rather than go this route. But Margot really does check off a few different boxes.

Is this just a situation where the guy who signs for the least amount wins? We don't need another 2B do we? And can Kiki even be an option in CF any longer? If it's about being a corner OF and a RH bat who beats up on LHP, then why not Tommy Pham? He's got more power than Hernandez and has a career .834 OPS against lefties. And his career .768 against RHP isn't exactly embarrassing, so he can play daily if needed. Adam Duvall has almost completely neutral splits in his career, .760 and .770, and also has more power than Hernandez. And like Pham, you don't have to use him strictly as a platoon option. He can also play daily if needed. I just don't see the fit here unless he can be a legitimate option in CF. But even then, I'm more in favor of a power corner bat to compliment Wallner and Kepler.

This is a joke from his agent, right? Rosenthal is being a mouthpiece right? His entire career has been as a useful utility player who has no power, limited AVG and OB%, no real speed or SB ability, and poor quad slash results with a career .711 OPS. His entire "worth" is based on a few good games in the post season! I can't see Falvey having ANY interest in him at all! Taylor, Duvall, Pham, would be so much better. You'd be better off trusting in Martin, or making room on the 40 man for Helman or Prato instead of adding him. Actually, I'd be reluctant to add him as a milb option considering what we already have. This has to be an agent joke reporting.

I LOVE how good Buxton feels and his optimism and attitude. Do we dare dream that the "cleanup" he had following 2022 made a difference that didn't quite fix it all, but this "plica" removal really made a difference? I'm no doctor, but we've all seen and heard of procedures that didn't quite work completely, but a second one just seemed to make a difference. I know just enough to know a surgeon doesn't usually just "go to town" and start removing stuff for the sake of doing so. That's about the extent of my medical knowledge, lol. But Buxton feels better than he has in years. And I believe him when he says that. But I'd hold the reigns back a bit on his 30 SB gungho attitude for now. A healthy Buxton is more likely to knock 30 HR than he is to steal 30 bases. And that's all a part of keeping him as healthy as can be going forward. There's just no need for him to risk an injury at 2B from jamming a wrist or shoulder or having him be stepped on or collided with an infielder for a SB that doesn't matter. HOWEVER, his crazy speed and ability to steal bases shouldn't be ignored either. I'd be ecstatic with 20 SB in crucial moments. Let's say all the good news is real and he plays 120 games between CF and some DH. The XBH are going to be there. He's got so much power and talent, he could crank 50 XBH in 120 games. BUT, for giggles, with all his speed and amazing career percentage of stealing bases. In 120 total games, he'd only have to steal 1 every 6 games for 20. And only 1 for every 4 games played for 30. Not exactly crazy percentages. I do think speed and instincts are real for Buck. But I also agree that he's awkward at times when he steals. And I believe some of that may be technique. I'd have someone like Molitor work with him to polish that part of his game. It's just silly not to run him at times in a crunch situation because he's already so damn good. But it's also silly to run him just for the sake of doing so and risking potential injury. Were I Rocco, I'd be "taming" down his high spirits a notch to look at technique to insure he's utilizing his ability to the fullest with as little risk as possible. Being a great SB threat doesn't mean you can't do it better. 30 SB sounds amazing! But I'd rather have 20 if it meant better health.

Agreed! And I can see a crunch at St Paul with a combination of Varland, SWR, Festa, Hendrick, Dobnak, Ohl, and Canterino. And the Twins picked up a couple journeyman types to fill in the gaps, which standard procedure. And it's possible Ohl and Canterino will begin at AA to get in a groove, and simply to have some depth for the first month just to get things going. But might it not be smart to offer a milb contract/split deal with an opt out, roll of the dice option, for someone like Odorizzi, Cueto, Keller, etc, to try and prove they can still get the job done? I'm not sold yet on SWR despite youth, a decent 2nd half to 2023, changing his arm slot, etc. I'm not sold on Festa or Canterino early, etc. And I HOPE we don't need a SP until June or July. But Ober was up pretty quick last year. Varland followed pretty close. I don't want the Twins to sign a fringe guy with any $ they might have left. Agreed on that! But wouldn't it be nice to have a cheap FA rebound signing like Odorizzi, for example, sitting at AAA come June, looking pretty solid and maybe ready for his rebound shot, rather than hoping SWR, Festa, and anyone else being pressed in to duty? Hell, I'm pretty encouraged about the pitching depth at St Paul. I'm just leary about most of them being ready to make a real contribution before June/July 1st.

100% I think we're on the same page. I don't dislike Santana, and I don't dislike the signing. It was inexpensive and pretty smart. I'm not a huge fan of defensive metrics, to be honest, as I don't feel they are always accurate for a variety of reasons. I also believe AK can be just fine, if not good, at 1B. But I'm also willing to give Santana his due that he is a good 1B. What I disagree with is that somehow, we signed Santana in his prime. Going in to his age 38yo season, he's not a second coming of Cruz. I don't have the numbers available, but until he hit .230 against RHP in 2023, weren't his last few seasons around .200?? I like him to play 1B against LHP. I like him as a PH, and as a late inning defensive replacement option at times. And I certainly believe he will get some starts at 1B or DH against RHP. But any thought that he's remotely better against RH arms vs Kirilloff is just wrong. Any idea that AK is a K machine is also wrong based on actual improvement in that area last season. Kirilloff is a former consensus top 25 player who's only real issue was the wrist problem which seems to have been fixed. Unless Santana finds a fountain of youth at 38yo, AK blows him away as a LH batter. And unless there is a MAJOR difference defensively...which I doubt...I'm just NOT going to put my 26yo potential stud LH bat at the DH spot in favor of a lesser bat, veteran status notwithstanding. Especially when that 26yo has a chance to be a fixture in the lineup for years to come.

Great interview! Very enjoyable. All great points addressed and enjoyed the Paddack spot. I don't NEED that Twins Daily hoodie, but I WANT that Twins Daily hoodie! Come on John, it's time for some TD merchandise to be available! 😃

Yep, big supporter of Helman. Just such a shame he was so beat up all of 2023...and still put up awesome numbers...as I think he might established himself as a near roster lock the way Castro has. That being said, I still think the SMART play for the Twins is to spend a few more $ and sign one of the veteran OF that are still out there. They all fill a need, but in different ways, and give the team a veteran floor player without having to count on a rookie. In other words, if Martin is the choice because he's inexpensive, talented, and the Twins actually think he's ready to contribute and they think they can find room for him daily, then OK. But if he struggles, and he goes back down, now who takes his place? That doesn't mean I don't like Martin or think he doesn't have a future. I just don't know if he's going to be that last guy, that RH bat to complete the roster. I've thought Helman might be the guy as he's talented and very versatile, and has more AAA experience. And frankly, if a late bloomer flails somewhat, you aren't as concerned about missed opportunity or development. And that's just being honest. Helman has displayed a solid bat, solid OB%, and good power at AAA. He's also good on the basepaths and has stolen 82 bases in the minors for a 80% success rate. It's really worth it to take a moment and look up his stat lines on Baseball Ref for the past 2 seasons. Defensively, he can and has played SS. As well as 1B. But those are his least two common spots. He's been mostly used across the entire OF, including quite a bit at CF, as well as 2B and 3B in the INF. He is very much a RH version of Castro, but probably with more power. He's still a potential surprise and Sire of Fort Myers candidate this spring. More likely, he's a 40 man add at some point during the season when someone gets banged up. From there, it's up to him to prove he can get the job done.

Don't most young pitching prospects always need a little more control, or a little more work on something? Not often they come up and throw like seasoned All Stars as rookies. There has been some references made as to Festa losing control the longer he's in the game, and sometimes velocity. I think they're the same thing as I do wonder/worry a bit about him just having enough size/strength/endurance to maintain that velocity and control a full 5 IP or more. If he can do that, he's going to be just fine! He's got the pitches and the results so far in his milb career. I think he's probably for his first real shot late sometime in June. At least, I sure hope he isn't needed until then. That means the Twins rotation is healthy and good. But I'm not so certain that Canterino doesn't surpass Festa by mid-season. I know it sounds almost crazy, but if he really and truly is fully healthy, there may not be a better arm in the system. While his time at AA in 2022 was limited, the results were just crazy good while he was there! Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev Aff W L W-L% ERA RA9 G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 24 -0.5 Wichita TL AA MIN 0 1 .000 1.83 2.10 11 10 0 0 0 0 34.1 17 8 7 1 22 0 50 0 0 5 144 1.136 4.5 0.3 5.8 13.1 2.2 And that's while pitching hurt! I'm speculating he gets about 4 starts at AA to settle in, and then moves to St Paul to begin May. A handful of starts in probably warmer weather and gets his feet under him, and then unleash him at the higher level. Now, they're going to have to mitigate his IP, obviously, but that's easier to do in the minors than at the ML level. I love Festa, but come July, Canterino might be the next man up after Varland, and not Festa.

So the 12 year younger Kirilloff had a 14 point higher OPS+, and had a better AVG, OB%, SLG%, and OPS against RHP...which batters generally see approximately 75% of the time...but Santana should be/is the better option?? And the front office never said they were looking for a starting 1B.

If I had to choose one of Lee, Julien, or Kirilloff, right now, to move in a deal, I guess I'd pick AK. But that would be very grudgingly hard choice as I don't want to move any of them, and my mind might change by mid season. I'm a big believer in Kirilloff, former tip pick, former top 100 prospect. And I'm not convinced that he is necessarily injury prone. He did need TJ on his throwing arm while in the minors. It probably did Rob him of a little arm strength, but it didn't preclude him from ever being able to throw or hit again. And he reached that tip 100 status post surgery I believe. His wrist situation wasn't an injury per se, it was a "defect" of sorts. While he was held back early in 2023 for a while to rehab and ramp up, once he was back he was one of the best....if not THE best...hitters on the team for about 2 1/2 months. The dreaded wrist issue seems to have been solved! Hurting his shoulder...a slight injury according to the doctors...happened while diving to make a play. Unless it happens again, or he suddenly develops a number of other injuries, I'm not going to fall in to the "injury bug" trap. Again, the elbow was years ago and hasn't caused any issues since. The wrist wasn't an injury, and now appears fine. I can honestly see a lineup scenario where he's the #3 hitter behind Julien and Correa. I am not in any hurry to move him. And Santana was brought in...veteran leadership not withstanding...primarily as a RH bat against LHP, a RH PH, a late inning defensive option. The guy hasn't hardly done anything from the left side in years. And I doubt he's going to suddenly find the fountain of youth at 38yo. But he can still be a useful piece of the team puzzle.

Hey, I'm excited about Martin. He finished 2022 strong, had that great AFL, and a solid THIRD of a season for AAA with a really good August. I don't know if he's going to end up, eventually, starting at a single spot, or rotating between 2-4 spots but playing daily, but he's going to be a daily regular, IMO. But that being said, in his 3yrs of pro ball, his AVG has yet to be above .263, excluding his AFL appearance. He's also shown little power, which the Twins were trying to help with, not necessarily make him a power hitter. Patience and a great eye for a high OB% and low K totals is great! But he has to offer at least SOME threat of power...doubles and the occasional HR...or you get Ben Revere at the best. Which means someone ML pitchers can constantly challenge without much fear. They're not going to walk you if you don't scare them some. On the positive side, he stroked 7HR in 2023, 18 total XBH, in 282 PA/ 231 AB, so that's a positive sign. He can dangerous with a good OB and speed, but he's a lot more dangerous, and effective, if he can give you 35 Dbls, 5-7 Trpls, and 10-15 HR along with his SB. He might be ready. I just think it's OK to pump the brakes a little and say a THIRD of a year at AAA might not have proved he's ready for ML duty just yet.

Why the impatience regarding Lee? He got a couple months of pro ball after being drafted and reached AA. In his 1st full season he spent about half of the season at AAA. And despite not being awesome, he was OK and got better by the week. He's still young, still working on a couple of things, and isn't even on the 40 man yet. And there's no great, immediate need on the 40 man roster except maybe for a 4th OF, which Lee is not. As much as I love Lee and am excited about him and his future, I wouldn't put him in place of Lewis, Correa, or Julien today. Would you? We've got Kirilloff, Santana, and maybe Miranda at 1B right now. (It's not certain how close to 100% Miranda is, or how soon he will be). So Julien isn't moving to full time 1B just yet. The DH spot is rather open, but that's also by plan. There's just nothing lost by letting Lee begin the season at AAA to polish some things, and to provide depth until needed and opportunity arises. Because, as always, these things happen. And in the meantime, you keep a really well put together roster for now instead of forcing someone off of it to wedge Lee in.