DocBauer

After weeks of reflection, I'm kinda "stuck" on my thoughts for 2025, so I thought I'd "bite" on the idea of being the fantasy GM for next season. I'm not using the TD format only because it just feels easier this way for me. But while I'm supposedly in charge, I'm also attempting to using some of the Falvey approach to things. 1] Financially, I'm using the "rough" idea of last seasons $130M payroll and the "end of season projections" of $135M payroll with status quo, WITH arbitration numbers included at that time. That goes along with the TD calculator. IMO, the "we aren't going to cut, but we aren't looking to add" comment from ownership, while vague, might included some variation of that season ending status quo, so my baseline is between $130M and $135M. 2] Falvey, and myself, aren't want to disrupt what's on hand. No need to add a hole and then try to fill that hole. And I'm not opposed to trading from a good system to add for today, or the future. But I'm also not going to go "Dombroski Sydrom" and rake the MILB system for a 1 or 2 year return. So here we go! #1 Possible] I'm offering Castro a 3yr $20M deal. I'm looking at $5.5 to $5.75M the first season. That saves me between $900K to $650K for 2025. He's an invaluable 10th man to me who puts up a .740-.750 OPS when healthy based on 2023 and the first half of 2024. He provides uncommon depth. I've just offered him life changing $ and almost triple his career earnings so far. And he's still a FA come his age 31 season. PLUS, his contract remains tradeable at any time. #2 Moves] Paddack and Vazquez will be moved. Not because I want to, but because I need to. Paddack is moved for his entire $7.5M. I believe someone is going to need a catcher and will want Vazquez, and will pay at least $8M, if not his entire $10M. International $, or a low level prospect might clear the entire $10M. The return for both is inconsequential for these purposes. #3 Move] I'm going to look at the Dodgers, and the Red Sox, and other teams, for a young, talented catcher to team with Jeffers. I'm open, but for purposes of this scenario, let's pick the Dodgers and Rushing as the target. We have a trade history. The Dodgers already have their top 2 catchers in play, and a couple prospects in the system. They want additional young talent to develop for themselves, and to offset future trades. I'm speculating 2 top 20 Twins prospects with a bonus top 30. Almost any arm not named Matthews and Morris are probably in line. But with their keen eye, they might be looking at a surprise like Varland, Adams, Nowlin, or Macleod as possibles. They probably want Kaelen Culpepper. And maybe an OF like Rosario, or Mercedes, or even J Rodriguez or Gonzaez or Beltre. Some combination of 2 top 20 players and a top 30. I have my young catcher to team with Jeffers for the next few years. #4 Move] I WANT to make a deal with the Rays for Yandy Diaz, $10M in 2025 and a team option for $12M for 2026. He's iminitely affordable for anyone but the Rays, who usually flip quality veterans about this time for prospects. But I just can't afford to trade another batch of 2-3 top prospects for him after acquiring my young catcher. I just can't do it, and the "Falvey" in me says the same thing. But I need a solid bat who can play 1B/DH to help my lineup and depth. I'm going to sign Josh Bell for $7M, with a ceiling of $8M. What little projection I can find has him available for $5.5-7.5M. He's probably more valuable as a DH, but he is experienced at 1B, even though he's only average there at best. But he's an experienced option there to share time with Miranda, without feeling compelled to make Miranda the primary 1B RIGHT NOW. He also adds to the DH spot, which was poor in 2024, and frees Miranda to still play a little 3B. WAR fans may not like this move, but the switch hitting Bell is a solid career hitter, with a solid OB%, and a career .790 OPS, with a career OPS+ of 114. He's also better against RHP, career .798 OPS, which is the dominate side of things, but has a nearly identical .770 OPS vs LHP. He's been almost as affective since he turned 30, with a downturn early in 2024, and a strong 2nd half after being traded by Miami to Arizona. I'm not opposed to bringing back Santana. I sure loved his defense. But I'm trusting Bell at 32yo as a DH/1B working with Miranda vs trusting a 39yo to have a THIRD age defying season. #5 Move] While there's real hope for LH relief in the pen between Funderburk, Headrick, the return of Moran at some point, and Nowlin later in the season, the pen takes a step forward if they can add ONE solid, proven LH arm that isn't a LOOGY. The best options are veteran Andrew Chafin and the 31yo Colin Poche. BOTH have quality career splits against RH bats. And that's what's needed for the 7th, and sometimes 8th inning. SOMEONE who can come in to face 2 quality LH bats in the lineup, but who won't be destroyed by a RH. (Think Okert last season). Poche is the younger of the 2 options...and I still can't believe the Rays let him go with a $3.5-ish arbitration number...so he's probably my first choice based on age. While I/Falvey don't like to spend a lot on a pen arm, I'm trying to WIN in 2025 and this is an important add. I'm grabbing whichever one will take a $3-3.5M offer first. I might even offer the younger Poche a 2yr $6M deal. At this point, I've cleared between $15-17.5M in salary to add a young catcher, a BAT who can help at 1B and DH, and a LHRP that is sorely needed. HOPEFULLY, I've found a way to shed the entire $17.5M, maybe saved a few hundred $K with the Castro re-sign, and a little more here and there with the other arbitration numbers to make sure that happened. Roughly, $17.5M minus $12M leaves me $5.5 left to work with. The last item on my check list is a RHOF who doesn't stink against RHP. NO MORE Margot or Garlick platoon only options that are 1 dimensional players who INEVITABLY play way more than the 200 AB they are SUPPOSEDLY suppose to play. #6 Move] I'm adding that RH OF. My primary targets are Grichuk and Laureano right now. The 33yo Grichuk turned down a $4M option to find something better. I don't expect him to find it. Every late January, early February, there's a couple RHOF looking for a deal. I expect the same this year, especially with various teams looking at lost TV deals and the such. Grichuk offers a decent bat and power and solid splits against RH arms while beating up LH pitching. Laureano the same, but with less power, a little more speed, and a better option as a 3rd or 4th CF cover candidate. BOTH work as a mostly neutral split RH 4th OF option way better than previous placeholders for around $4M. POSITION PLAYERS: 1B: Miranda/Bell 2B:Lewis/Lee SS: Correa 3B: Lee/Lewis LF: Larnach CF: Buxton RF: Wallner DH: Bell/Miranda C: Jeffers 10th Man: Castro BENCH: Keirsey, Rushing, Grichuk/Laureano ROTATION: Lopez Ryan Ober Festa SWR BULLPEN: Duran Jax Stewart Poche Sands Alcala Henriquez Tonkin RESERVE PLAYERS: Camargo, Julien, Helman, Martin PEN OPTIONS: *NOTE, SOMEONE will be on the IL to begin the season almost expectedly, and a couple guys have options to wait and see for when they are needed. Varland, Topa, Headrick, Adams, Canterino, Castellono, ROTATION OPTIONS: Matthews, Raya. (Let's be honest here, it wouldn't be hard to add Morris or Lewis or anyone else to the 40 man here if needed). WHAT I WOULD ALSO DO: I'd bring in Eeles and McCusker in as non roster invite players who have a legitimate chance to surprise in 2025. The non-Falvey in me says "don't ignore potential surprises on hand" and let kids like this get even a small opportunity in ST to show your scouts might have found something. WHAT HAVE I ACCOMPLISHED? Well I sure as hell didn't have the $160M payroll...or more...that I SHOULD HAVE HAD to build my 2025 Twins team. But what i DIDN'T DO was remove talent enough to really contend foe the ALC and beyond. I didn't blow up the future, even though I traded off a handful of quality prospects to get the young catcher we needed to work along side Jeffers. What were we going to do in 2026? The MILB system remains mostly intact. But I got that young catcher we needed when prospects like Cossetti and Cardenas suddenly tanked in 2024. (Both will hopefully rebound in 2025). And I added a 1B/DH to address a weakness offensively to deepen the lineup and not put too much pressure on Miranda to hold the 1B spot by himself. And I've added a veteran LHRP to deepen the pen and provide a legitimate LH presence. I've also added a RHOF who can cover both corner OF spots with the ability to not suck against RH pitching. And I've done that with a payroll for around $132-133M. And I haven't done anything to take away from the rotation, the pen, or the lineup. I might have only added to the margins, but those margins could mean a couple key games. And I haven't added anyone that could block any top prospects from making their presence known in 2025.

An .819 OPS against RH batters makes him affective? I'd sure like to know what bad would be. This deal doesn't work at all for me.

A little strange to me he wasn't protected by the Phillies. A bad 2023 but a strong enough bounceback in 2024 to be their MILB pitcher of the year, and good velocity and K numbers. I'm guessing a future in the pen and being 23yo is the reason he was available. Still, you need good pen arms as well. As I stated in a different thread, I would have expected a LH arm if they were looking for help in 2025. The pen looks pretty good with decent depth from the right side. I'm thinking Castellano is more of a draft and then trade for if he shows something in ST rather than be a 40 man stash.

Interesting. I would have thought they'd look harder at a LH option, but AA had some serious pen issues in 2024, and AAA wasn't always great either. Just wonder if he isn't more of a draft and then trade for option to stash and continue developing in the minors rather than a 26 man roster stash.

I wouldn't mind keeping Paddack for the same reasons I believe he's of value to someone else, he's still under 30yo, he's further removed from his last surgery so his velocity should be more consistent, and the feel for his previously excellent changeup will hopefully be back. $7.5M for 1 yr for a 5th starter with upside is a relative bargain. But there's no way to make any sort of change to the roster, even small ones on the margin, unless someone is moved. I think Festa showed last season that he's ready. I had thought of Paddack as an option for Boston, or Baltimore, amongst others. I hadn't thought about the A's, but this makes sense. It would be nice if they had room for a defense first, experienced catcher at $10M that they might flip to someone in 2025 if/when an injury were to happen.

He's 1 of 2 affordable RHOF I'm on board with signing. He doesn't have to play daily, and won't, but solid career numbers against RHP means you can play him as more than simply a platoon bat, when needed, and not create a massive hole in your lineup. Odds are he ends up with 300-350 PA like Margot did. The difference is he can actually hit and produce. I think he'd been about 4th in line for CF behind Buxton, Keirsey, and Castro, but at least he has legitimate experience there. So if some roster/lineup shuffling happens in a game, at least you can send someone out there that knows the position. I'd love him for 1yr and around $4M. I'd actually consider 2nd year as I'm not sure when Rosario arrives, or McCusker, or if either truly "arrives".

Yes, it's absolutely a puzzle. But I'm not sure moving Castro is part of that puzzle. He might be of course. I'm still not sure that $130M is some ABSOLUTE. In all things, subtle variations are usually accepted. If ONLY Paddack were moved, and a LHRP were added, $135M minus $7.5M and add another $3.5M, we're at $131M. Even the Pohlad's aren't going to balk at that. After all, it's just business. Anything MORE would depend on moving Vazquez and still adding a catcher somewhere else.

Regarding Nick's OP as to "what early moves are showing..." I have a few thoughts/opinions. 1] While early moves are just that, we're seeing more than a few interesting/questionable deals being made for backend SP. This tells me, IMO, that Paddack is going to have value if the Twins decide to move him. He'll be 29yo in 2025, is more than a year removed from his 2nd TJ surgery, and should see more consistent velocity. The "feel" for his change should be back, and the Twins worked hard with him on his new slider/sweeper. I could see Boston, Baltimore, and more than a few other teams looking for depth and love a 1yr $7.5M additon with upside for a low level player back in return. 2] I've heard various pundits believe the Twins could move Vazquez for his full $10M with a small lower level prospect in return. I've never bought in to that. But we're also seeing teams looking for catchers and grabbing a few of them already. And a couple have been signed for around the $8M mark. I'm not going to debate the value of those signings or Vazquez directly, but teams are looking for catchers. It appears to be a need. (Surprise!). At some point, possibly soon, there's going to be a few teams still wanting and Vazquez is going to look good to them, IMO. I thought the Cubs were a perfect fit, but it looks like they may have found their man. I don't believe the Twins are anxious to trade either Paddack, or Vazquez, but I think they might. What's remaining to be seen is whether they can move Vazquez cleanly, or if they will have to include a semi-decent prospect, or eat a couple $M to do so. But I think there's a market for both that would free up anywhere from $14-17M to allow the FO some flexibility to add to the margins for a solid bat and LHRP to at least augment the 2025 roster.

Indiana, I know your question was aimed at @chpettit19, and he offered an answer, but if I may, id like to respond as well. Basically, the Twins payroll for 2024 was $130M. When the season was done and the existing roster was presented, with potential arbitration numbers included, the Twins were sitting at $135M from what I saw/read. No Kirilloff means that number drops a little bit. FWIW, the TD "you're the GM" format has the Twins about $134 not including the $1M that Tonkin was signed for. Again, there's a baseline of $135M give or take a little. Paraphrasing the comment from ownership was: "we're not going to cut payroll. But we're not looking to add payroll either". The problem there is the comment is ambiguous at best. Does that mean not less than $130M and no more, relatively speaking. OR, does that mean no cuts but nothing more than final, end of season, run it back, arbitration numbers included at $135M? $5M SHOULDN'T make a difference, but with ownership running things this tight, that $5M difference DOES make a difference if Falvey makes a couple moves to free up $ to play with. Just something to consider.

I really don't care if the pen is entirely RH, as long as a few of those arms can be successful against LH bats. But Thielbar was BAD against RH bats last year...and not nearly as affective against LH as he ahd been...and no thank you to another Okert LOOGY. IF some $ is made available, I'm of the opinion the pen could be really good if they grabbed a solid LH pen arm that could be solid against RH bats. At some point in close games, 7th-8th inning, you're going to have 3 guys coming up and 2 of them are going to bat LH. My 2 targets, as of now, to fill that role are Andrew Chafin and Colin Poche. For their careers, both have been very affective against RH bats. I'm looking at $3-4M for either of them. That's more than the Twins would normally pay a pen arm that isn't a closer or primary setup man. But the market is what it is. At 31yo Poche is 4 years younger than Chaffin, so I might offer him a 2 for $6M-7M deal. Chaffin I'm looking at a 1 yr deal. It doesn't break the bank, but that ONE ARM does a lot to make the pen's job that much easier in crucial innings in close games. Other arms like Funderburk, maybe Hendrick, and definitely Moran if he comes back strong from surgery, offer some potential, and could be a 2nd LH arm in the middle innings. But a Chafin or Poche really add that solid LH option for later innings.

The OP can't be ready in the "dark mode" and that's why some of you can't see it. You have to change over to the "bright mode" to read in black on white. I do think know why, but this happens with some OP pieces. Annoying. Compared to some offaeason theories I've read, this one makes at least SOME sense. Suzuki plays DH and shares some OF corner against tough LHP. It works. But the Cubs get a prospect and a top pen arm and the Vazquez and Paddack contracts are done after the upcoming season. Meanwhile, the Twins get a good/decent bat...not a great one...and nothing else, and have to pay that bat $18M in 2026 and no longer have a catcher for 2025 to pair with Jeffers. So where's the $ savings to add a veteran catcher? And it sure would be nice to be able to add a veteran LHRP for $3-4M ish. Vazquez should be a 1yr option for the Cubs all by himself. The need/want catching help, and they don't have to give the Twins back much of anything, just a A ir rookie ball player with a little talent that's worth keeping around to see if there's something there. Honestly, while 1B/DH Josh Bell hasn't hit as well as Suzuki has over his 3 years, Bell has produced nearly identical 2B/HR/RBI numbers. And at perhaps as little as $7M on a FA deal, he might be a better choice due to cost and position help.

I like the idea of Diaz from the Rays. I agree we won't get much back for Paddack, but I believe he's got value to clear his $. My issue with your example is the Twins make these moves AFTER they trade for a young catcher to replace Vazquez. That implies trading additional prospect assets to do so. Then you propose trading Vazquez and additional prospects for other players. So I'm guessing 4 to 5 top 20 prospects to gain a catcher and Diaz? I think that's too rich for Falvey and the system to risk.

I appreciate the effort. And that's what I'm asking for and looking at. It doesn't HAVE to be Rushing. There's Teel from Boston and a few other young catchers out there that might be available. Personally, I'd rather hold on to both Lee and Keaschall and would rather trade Culpepper, who I've decided I like, but is a couple years away, but MIGHT be as good or better than Lee or Keaschall. It depends on the team in question. Mercedes, Gonzalez, and even J Rodrigez and Rosario could be of major interest to certain teams for an OF/BAT player. And while I'd hate to give up Soto, Raya, and other arms, you can at least see the path I'm looking at. Trading for a young catcher to team with Jeffers makes more sense to me than someone trading a young, powerful 1B with performance and control, or similar OF. *Not sure the Twins need an OF with Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Rodriguez and Jenkins on the way.

I can't disagree with you that "forcing" Castro to being an IRON MAN might have an affect on him. But right about the time of the All Star break, he developed a back issue. I'm still not sure exactly what the issue was...not sure it's ever been detailed...but his production plunged at that point. (Same with Miranda). I know we're off topic here, but I think Castro is a major component for the Twins in 2025. And not just because he can help cover CF at times and produce a .730-.750 OPS and can play almost anywhere decently. It's BECAUSE he can produce like that AND play solidly almost anywhere that makes him so important. I'm NOT attempting to derail the OP, but if the FO didn't keep Castro for 2025 they short change the entire roster, IMO. Look, I hope for the best for the entire lineup, but what IF Lee or Lewis have setbacks? No problem as Castro slides in to one of those spots for a fix. We talk about adding speed and athleticism to the lineup. Castro offers that. I don't like him as the PRIMARY option behind Buxton in CF, but I like him him there as an occasional fill in. It's also why I'm of the idea to let Keirsey get a legitimate shot as a 4th/5th OF option. Let's say he only hits .235 with an OB of .310 with some doubles, a couple HR, and has an OPS of .680. (He MIGHT be better than that). If he plays good defense and steals some bases and is a good PR, i can accept that as the 13th man on the roster until someone better pushes him put of the way. Rodriguez perhaps? Honestly, how low would Keirsey have to go to be worse than Margot in overall value to the team? But Castro being removed from the 2025 team would have to be part of a major addition to offset what he provides offensively...with his back OK again...and his depth presence. Personally, I'd love to sign Castro to a 3yr $19-20M deal to be part of this team for the next few years. But it's also possible that he and Keirsey are temporary fits of quality and hopefull quality until Rodriguez and Keaschall are ready. But I'd rather stick with Castro for 2025, even on an expiring deal, and give Keirsey first shot as the primary CF backup, rather than another Margot error for a team STUCK with a budget, and have Helman and MAYBE an improved Martin as additional backup options until Rodriguez is ready to go. It wouldn't stink if February 1st saw a RH OF with good career numbers against RHP was available on the cheap to be added to the roster, but that doesn't change the CF and Castro situation and potential value of Keirsey as a temporary option in CF.

It's your second paragraph that really grabs my attention. There's a lot of differing thoughts as to how all the flux in TV deals/revenue will affect FA this offseason. We've already seen a few teams be aggressive early, but we always do. And there will be some MONSTER deals for the elite FA available. We'll also scratch our heads at some deals that take place, per usual. There are some who feel loss/changes, or future changes, in TV/revenue are an excuse for some teams. Some believe it will have an affect once the initial surge of signings take place. Only time will tell. But it's my gut feeling there are going to be a handful of RH bats sitting at home waiting for a deal and looking for a job come late January/early February. I'm not so certain Canha won't be one of them. But I suspect there will be others. Right now, today, the Twins RH OF option besides Castro is Helman and Martin. While I'm a fan of Helman. And would LOVE to see him run with a chance, I'm not thrilled by him being the only option. And I wasn't particularly taken with much of Martin last season. But I'd rather run with them than Margot part 2! IF the Twins jumped on anyone early, I'd rather see $3M or so on a solid LHRP. But if there's a Canha, Pham, Grichuk who has a good career splits against RH pitching sitting there for a steal of a deal to provide some balance for the OF/lineup, I'd be kind of excited to grab someone like that. Said it before and will say it again, just NO MORE RH PLATOON ONLY RH bats. That player inevitably ends up playing way more than expected. And suddenly your 13th man, platoon player is in way over his head. And you short your lineup BIG TIME. At the risk of repeating myself yet again, one of those guys I mentioned...and there are other possibilities...sitting and waiting for a job, I'm fine with a signing of one. They fit a role, shouldn't stink against RH pitching, and don't block anyone. That's where my focus is at.

It's always been said that the changeup is a "feel" pitch. I've always taken that as feeling good with your grip and arm slot, but also being sure not to overthrow it. Perhaps colder weather earlier in the season has been responsible for some of his issues. Or maybe he just needs to throw it a little more in ST to work the kinks out? I'm not expert on many of the peripheral measurements of pitchers. But it's my understanding that most of his peripherals were showing better than the final results were in games. In other words, the EXPECTED results were better than the actual results. It seemed as though all the hits and XBH were lumped in to a single inning, versus being more scattered across multiple innings. He'd cruise for a couple innings, allow 3 runs, and then look good again the next few innings. So I'm wondering if his sequencing might need to be changed up a little, no pun intended. His "ON" switch flipped a little later in 2024 than 2023, but he's pretty much been a legitimate top of the rotation starter for about 2/3 of each season. I don't know how to get him more effective early, but if they can find some tweaks to make it happen, that lifts the entire rotation to another level.

I don't want my LH bats to automatically be platooned. That said, sitting one of them against a LHP, occasionally both if it's a really tough LH, is solid. But I don't want a RH bat with poor defense and no speed who can't hit RHP but ends up with 350 PA again. IF Canha's hip is healthy and that was the reason for such a down 2024...especially against RHP...and not just suddenly toast, I'm on board. He's not special, but he's a decent hitter with a good OB and occasional pop. And he's been almost completely neutral on his career until last season. And I like that he can be insurance/depth at 1B as well. But I only like him for somewhere between $2-3M on a 1yr deal. A soon to be 36yo with limited power and coming off a poor season isn't worth more than that, IMO, no matter how good a guy/teammate he is. The Twins, currently, don't have $2-3M available to be frivolous with.

I'm not a drum beater for Keirsey and Helman and have some sort of belief that both are going to be major assets for the Twins. I'd love a $150-160M budget...where we should be...and make some moves that help and deepen the club. But we're looking at $130-135M this year and we're basically there already. And the last thing the Twins should do is move someone just to be able to add fringe type FA. Especially when they might have a league minimum player(s) on hand who might fit those roles. Sorry if I'm repeating myself from a previous post, but BOTH Keirsey and Helman were drafted and developed by the current FO, 4th and 11th rounds respectively. Both had a good short season debut, a bad year, a lost year, and then started to figure it out. They've both had a 3 year .800+ OPS coming in to 2025. No, they aren't proven by any means, but they haven't been given a shot yet. Why on earth would we want or need to spend $ on another Garlick or Margot who can't play defense, can't run, and can't do anything other than hit LH pitching a little bit. Keirsey is LH and that's an issue? Why? 75% of pitching is RH. Buxton, with hopes, will play 110-120 games, most of them in CF, but probably less. He can also be a PR, providing speed off the bench the Twins currently lack. He can also provide late game defense in the corners if wanted/needed. Depth if he doesn't do well? Helman, who fits just about everything I've said previously, but as a RH hitter, who can also play across the INF. Plus, there's some hope Martin's bat and glove will improve some and there's additional depth. And how about Emmanuel Rodriguez being ready at some point? I just don't understand trying to shuffle the roster to free up an additional couple bucks to add a poor hitting "veteran" OF for a cash strapped team when you might have a bench option on hand, and one of your top prospects almost ready who plays the same spot. NOW, if the Twins can indeed come up with some extra $ through a move or two, and you can find a good value RH CORNER OF who can also hit RH arms decently...discussed recently in another OP...and work with Wallner and Larnach and DH some, that's a different arguement. But with Keirsey on hand, Rodriguez on rapid rise, and Helman and Martin and Castro all as at least fill in options, I think sticking with what's on hand is the smart move. What I don't understand is not letting Keirsey and Helman get an opportunity in 2024 when injuries hit, and Martin and Margot performed so poorly.

What a great idea! And in the NFL, if you're behind by 8 points or less and the game is at or under the 2:00 minute mark, the losing team's QB stands at the 50 yard line with no pass rush allowed, and the best WR gets to go one on one with a DB to see if they can score on a bomb. You know, just to keep things interesting. In the NBA, no more overtime! Have a dunk contest to determine the winner. You could have a "dunk specialist" on your bench just for tie games. While we're at it, let's forget extra innings for baseball. Just too boring. Imagine watching the highlights on ESPN of a HR contest to determine the winner! It's just a ridiculous, little league/softball league change that will never happened. Someone brought it up over a 3 martini lunch and Manfred thought it was worth mentioning publicly. It isn't.

Because he's a cheap and semi-proven middle reliever who can chew up 2 innings at a time without, generally, letting the game get out of hand. Think SWR last season going 5 IP that are solid. Tonkin comes in for 1-2 innings and doesn't blow up. Then we get to the 8th and the heart of the pen takes over. That's his role. It may be Topa's as well, but we'll see. Tonkin is nothing special. But a guy who can potentially eat a bunch of middle innings across a full season has value that you don't see in measurable stats. And at $1M, if he's suddenly toast, he's also easy to DFA.

It's not? Let's just say you automatically take away a 100 points away from that. You still have right about league average for 2024. I've NEVER stated EITHER of Helman and Keirsey would RAKE, or be above league average. If they did that, they'd be starters somewhere. I am only stating they MIGHT be around league average, or slightly below. Maybe they'd surprise! But we're talking about guys with some talent and ability who might be good bench options and fill in players who have a role. You need those guys as well. My argument continues that they've just never been given a chance to show if either could be a decent, solid ML hitter and provide depth rather than some 1 tool limited RH hitting bat. I'd much rather give them a shot than another Garlick or Margot 1 tool limited player. Ugh!

What else do we have to talk about other than speculation, right? The new TV deal with MLB is lower, fluid, and unknown foe the future, even though a form of streaming...and possible deals with other streaming networks is a possibility...we are left with lower revenue and a current ownership that feels a few millions is not worth sacrificing for the good of the franchise despite a potential windfall in the HOPEFULL future for a change. We COULD be surprised/stunned by the FO making a major deal. I'm just not expecting that. Falvey, to his credit, has always tried to play the long game and never wanted to dismantle the system for major returns. Though he has traded prospects for additions at times. But with a system that ranks in the top 5-ish from most publications and pundits, a limited payroll means Falvey, and the rest of his FO, needs to be creative to make changes/additions to the 2025 club. Enough preamble. My speculation is the Twins will look to trade a collection of prospects for A] a powerful, difference making bat who is young and controlled for 2-3 years. B] a young catcher to pair with Jeffers for the next few years. The problem with my theory is, what team has a young, powerful bat in the OF, or 1B, that is controllable that they are willing to sell for a collection of top prospects? Do the A's, Nationals, Marlins, etc, rebuilding teams have someone they would be willing to move for more options? So I'm kinda stuck on the idea that maybe the target should be a young catcher who can team with Jeffers for the next few years and ease the loss of Vazquez for a low level prospect and some $ to be spent elsewhere. I'm sure there are other options out there, but I'm wondering about Teel from the Red Sox, or Rushing from the Dodgers. Because the Twins and Dodgers have a recent history, and other factors, I'm going to use Rushing as a primary trade idea. Plus, he's potentially a great fit. The Dodgers currently have a good catching duo with more prospects on the way. They also have a great team, and the $ to buy what they want, more or less. But they also have a good MILB system, and do a good job of developing talent to use, and also to trade. Rushing is not a finished backstop yet, but offers promise, and a potentially good bat from the left side. And the Twins MILB catching prospects ALL had down 2024 seasons. The Dodgers have a keen eye for talent. So they may target players I'm not even thinking of in a trade proposal here. And Rushing, a top 100 prospect, won't come cheap. But I'm thinking any pitcher not named Matthews or Morris is on the table. Next comes any OF not named Jenkins or E Rodriguez, which means Rosario, Gonzalez, Mercedes, J Rodriguez, or Beltre. Lee, Keaschall, or recently drafted Culpepper are on the table as well. OR, they could surprise with someone as part of the trade options. Maybe I'm offering up too much with a potential 3 of the Twins top 20. But when it HURTS to give up so much for a top prospect, it starts to feel about right. I'm not so sure a trade with Boston for Teel might not include some of the same names. Assuming the FO makes a trade of this nature, it makes moving Vazquez easier from a roster standpoint, frees up $ for another addition, and sets the Twins catching position up for another 2-3 years. Or am I all wet? Is there a better option to trade 2-3 top prospects for a better alternative position player bat? Is there a rebuilding team out there that might be ready to trade a good young position player for a prospect haul? Tell me if I'm on a right path or if you have a better idea.

Unless the FO makes a major trade of 2-3 top 20 prospects for a young, controllable position player that is on the cheap side financially for a big bat, the hopes to add to the roster will rest on moving a piece or two such as Vazquez and/or Paddack to create a little $ room to add around the edges. Assuming nobody wants to trade away a young, controllable BIG BAT for prospects, we might be looking at smaller additions for the margins. But while the player side of the roster doesn't have any GLARING holes, 1B might be the biggest question mark for 2025. I keep looking at Josh Bell as an inexpensive addition that might make sense for 1B as a replacement for Santana, who some view as a possible re-sign. Most every projection I can find has him available for $5.5-7.5M on a FA deal. CONS: * He's an experienced but average 1B. *He doesn't have the same power he had earlier in his career. *While he closely matches Santana in career quad slash line, he's still slightly behind. PROS: *He's 33yo, not 39. There's far less likelihood of a sudden drop off. *His 2024 numbers jumped once he left Miami for Arizona. *He's also a switch hitter, but unlike Santana, he's got much greater even splits against both sides of the mound. *His production over the past few seasons still suggest around 50 XBH. *Like Santana, he's durable and usually good for 140 games. He doesn't move the needle in the way a MAJOR FA target like Goldschmidt might, or Walker might. But Walker is out of the Twins price range. And even Goldy might be as well, speculations being around $12-14M. But he's a solid bat from both sides of the plate with some power who can slot in the 5-7th slot in the lineup to deepen the lineup and provide decent production. He also allows Miranda to continue to develop as a 1B...while still covering 3B and DH...without pushing him in to the fulltime 1B role to begin 2025. What do you say? Is this a smart, inexpensive move to deepen the lineup and provide 1B help? Or is there a better option that you see?

But Poche and Chaffin are exactly why you SHOULD care about bullpen splits. What we DON'T need is another Okert who does exactly what you mentioned, which is come in for a LH bat and then get stuck facing a RH or two who might destroy him. That very thing happened at least a couple times last year. It's OK if you don't like Chaffin. But I'm targeting one of him or Poche because they shouldn't cost big $ and have really solid career splits. The Twins need ONE LH who can come in to the 7th or 8th to face a LH bat, or two, but still have a reasonable chance of getting that RH out. Thielbar could usually do that before last year. There's little room for a LOOGY any longer in today's game. Heck, I'd be inclined to offer Poche a 2yr deal for $6-7M based on his career so far. I'm really surprised the Rays cut him loose.

We disagree on giving Rodriguez a spot on opening day. I just think he missed so much time last season, unfortunately, that a little time at AAA would do him good to make a couple adjustments, see some decent pitching, and get in a groove. But I fully appreciate your perspective on running with him and let him learn on the job. He might just be so talented he grows in to the job quickly. I sure wouldn't be upset if that's the way they go. What frustrates me, and has for a couple years now, is the idea of marginal, 1 tool players being brought in who end up playing more than wanted/expected and living with poor performance. No more Garlicks or Margots PLEASE. I'm repeating myself, but why grab someone who you just can't count on to do anything but be that 1 tool player who's stretched for anything else? Even IF they promote Rodriguez to the opening day roster, if you can free up some $, why not add a Grichuk or a Laureano as a RH bat who can actually hit RH pitching to augment the roster? And to further repeat myself, why on earth did the Twins wait until late September to FINALLY give Helman and Keirsey their first shot? You have 2 guys who have a combined 3 year OPS above .800 in the upper minors that you refuse to look at as possible role players with pop and speed and defense in deference to Margot? That's just a short-sighted waste of opportunity.