DocBauer

I don't often bash Rocco, even if i don't always agree with him. But Alcala was POORLY used last season. He had thrown something like 20 innings due to injuries the previous 2yrs. But he's got the pure stuff to be very good 1 IP at a time. Especially coming off injury, he should have been handled as such. But he was frequently asked to throw 40-50 pitches at 2-3 innings per. And the "someone has to throw those innings" is either a horrible mismanagement of Rocco, or the FO. No wonder he was worn out later in the season. Topa has options, so does Varland. I want the best pen the Twins can assemble. But if they HAVE to protect depth, NO WAY should Alcala be sent down. The guy has paid his dues, and performed very well when used properly. I don't like the idea of protecting Castellano unless he looks GREAT in ST. If he does, then make a trade with the Phillies that makes sense. And if that doesn't work, let someone else take the temporary demotion to AAA before the inevitable injury/promotion of someone else. Name me a team that has a high K reliever that produces when used properly that would send said pitcher down? That's just awful roster management.

I have a basic principle that says when a guy rakes in college, and then rakes in MILB, and rakes at the ML level...even in a SSS and at least shows SOMETHING...I don't write him off when he struggles. It's just a general philosophy that doesn't ALWAYS hold true...some guys are just a flash in the pan and that's it...but I stand by what I've seen over the years. The problem with Julien is that he was just SO LOST after the first few weeks of 2024 that I don't know what to expect. I pretend to be pretty smart, LOL, but I don't have the expert eye on something that @chpettit19 put out there regarding Julien's swing path. Others are way smarter than me on such things. Some are even paid to figure that out! What i saw was a kid who was lost and then lost confidence. While some refuse to accept it, or didn't see enough to really know, he worked damn hard on his defense in 2023, and improved to the point where he was at least ML average at the position. And that's fine as long as the bat plays. But the defense went downhill when his bat went downhill last year. I was actually shocked how many times his "great eye" betrayed him and he was sent down with another K from a pitch right in his previous zone. Again, for whatever reason(s), the kid looked lost to me. And it looked like his confidence was gone. I HATE to bring up previous nightmares, but he reminded me of watching Gallo just HOPING he could earn a BB at times while at the plate. But Julien DOES have a good eye for the zone. He DOES have the ability to spray the field for hits, doubles, and some legitimate HR power. He DOES have a good work ethic. So he DOES have the ability to adjust...if his head is now clear...and adjust his swing, foul of some pitches like Larnach learned to do better, and maybe STRIKE more often. I sure hope that happens, as there's a really good offensive ballplayer in there, even though he's restricted to 2B/1B/DH. Unfortunately for him, if things go well in the INF going forward with talent on hand, and Keaschall not too far away, he might not have a FIXED position. But that's OK if his bat comes around. There's absolutely room for him. SIDE NOTE: A comment from Larnach last year...since he's been brought up...was something along the lines of...and I'm paraphrasing here... "I've hardly ever seen a FB since I turned pro! It's always been about fouling off the other stuff to finding something I could hit". Sounds a bit like Julien at this point.

Lewis doesn't need me to defend him, but I'm compelled to make a couple points: 1] He stated he didn't want to move to 2B DURING the season because he was afraid he'd blow a play in an important game since he hadn't had any real time to adjust to the position. Why does this part of the 2024 discussion get left out? (He was also probably a little frustrated with his own performance at the time). In fact, he's worked pit at 2B in the offseason, though it looks like that idea may have been scrapped already by the Twins. 2] He's represented by "super agent" Scott Boras. If the Twins offer was really too low, or insulting, you never heard a word from Boras or Lewis about it. And he COULD have refused and gone to arbitration. A really good OP by Matthew! A good read and some good quotes. But he did sort of stop short of the whole story. For all intent and purposes a PAIR of ACL injuries basically cost Lewis 2yrs of playing time. While rehabbing, he got bigger and stronger. That's not necessarily a bad thing unto itself. But 2 ACL injuries and more muscle, I'm pretty sure the 60 grade speed is gone. Doesn't mean he's slow, but he's not the same physically that he once was. Now, adding muscle, getting stronger, rehabbing, is different than actually playing the game in full drive mode. So barely seeing the field for TWO YEARS, i don't think a few injuries are out of the question when returning to the field again. It stinks! But I don't think his soft tissue injuries are out of left field, no pun intended. What was alluded to, but not included in the OP, is that this offseason he's been working with a previous physical therapist/trainer he trusts and has worked with previously. Their intent was for him to work on flexibility, and quickness, overall conditioning to help avoid those soft tissue injuries going forward. Does that mean after actually playing a longer season than he has for some time, and all the hard offseason work mean his injury history is behind him? No. But I think a full picture of his situation and the work he's done needs to be presented in full context. He figures out the throwing glitch he developed in 2024, he's primed to become a very solid 3B and maybe the Twins best overall bat. And yes, KNOCK ON WOOD his hard work is going to keep him on the field more in 2025 and beyond. I just think a full, complete picture is needed here when discussing what he's been through, the hard work he's put in, and what might be.

OF: Larnach, Buxton, Wallner, Bader. All set with these 4. Larnach backs up Wallner when he needs a day off. Bader plays CF and LF, is a late game PR and defensive replacement. INF: Lewis, Correa, Lee, Miranda/France. Lee is who the Twins want and who they need at 2B. He stabilizes the infield defense, and he's a lot better hitter than what we saw in 2024. He can help cover SS as well. IF France has a decent spring, he's on the club to open. He's the most experienced 1B available, and he's going to have to play himself off the roster. Miranda will share some 1B time, play a little 3B still, and might end up as the primary DH. SUPER UTILITY: Castro, and we know this. He really needs to remain in this role as much as possible. CATCHER: Jeffers and Vazquez. #13: It's between Julien and Martin. Castro does everything Martin does, but better. The team is short on LH bats. Julien improved his defense in 2023 and then forgot he did so when he also forgot how to hit. But #1, he needs to hit again. Being a backup 2B and #3 1B is less important than his bat coming back. I'm betting Julien's bat is better than Martin's and that's more important than having a backup to Castro. So Julien makes it as the 13th man in a close call. Martin, Keirsey, and Gasper are "next men up" in no particular order. I can't shake the feeling Gasper might surprise, even on a limited basis, as a contact and solid OB guy at some/various point (s) during the season.

I like the starting staff and the pen a lot, based on current construction. But what's odd to me is that I can like what I see even knowing there's probably a couple of better arms, with more upside, that might not be on the opening day roster. (Festa and Varland for example). I think the question comes down to the quality of the offense. Not saying they WILL, but Wallner and Lewis each have 30 HR potential. And while he almost certainly won't play enough games to do it, Buxton will probably be on a 30 HR pace and settle for around 18-20. Correa is a 20 HR type of hitter and great hitter overall. Jeffers stroked 20 bombs in 2024 while on a time share at catcher and occasional DH appearances. Even if the new and improved Larnach never hits 20 bombs, he's good for upper teens. Castro has 1 1/2 healthy seasons out of 2 with a .750 OPS as a fill in and table setter 10th man. The question then becomes what do they get out of 2B, 1B, and DH? Or, in other words, can Lee take over 2B and produce anywhere as hoped? How well does Miranda produce if he gets a full season? Is there any chance that the France we signed is anything like the version he showed in 2021-22? Or maybe the version that was pretty good for the first couple of months in 2024? The Twins offense ranked high in 2024 in regard to total run production. The problem was...as detailed well by @Muppet...the run scoring was inconsistent. That's why we have new hitting coaches this season. The potential to have a pretty good offense is actually there. I'm worried they missed an opportunity by not adding a good bat this offseason due to the budget constraints. Maybe the new owners allow for a mid season addition. Maybe Rodriguez and/or Keaschall come up to help deepen and spark thr offense at some point. But with the pitching they have, it's not as if they have a lousy offense, or no growth potential. What they need...other than health...is an offense that doesn't run so hot and cold.

So the Zips projections are that the top 3 Twins prospects are also their top 3 Twins prospects? And all 3 could help the Twins in the near future? Pretty bold stuff there. I was expecting some arrival and numbers projections. Or is my screen broken?

In regard to Paddack and trade value, it was reported in various sources that various teams had interest, but Falvey didn't like the returns being offered. Perhaps teams suspected a salary dump opportunity that wasn't reality? But there was reported interest. I would have moved him as part of a deal, or as a dump to make another deal, and added a bat via trade. I've offered up ideas in previous articles, and there's no sense rehashing those. It would have meant less depth, and more pressure on SWR and Festa as well as Matthews and the other young arms at AAA, but it's the move I would have made and just put my trust in the young arms. That being said, having Paddack does provide some hope of upside at the moment. It's why other teams had interest, especially at only $7.5M for 1yr. His presence provides depth to begin the year in case someone is hurt early on, or SWR suddenly shows regression, which I don't believe is going to happen for Sim. And I repeat that what happened with Ober wasn't fair, but it quickly worked itself out. The depth and options...no pun intended...is nice to have to begin the season. And even if Paddack does break down, you've bought a little more time for your AAA staff to get their legs under them. Again, it's not what I would have done. IMO, the FO has become almost paranoid in regards to a "depth" issue to the point where they are almost afraid or rolling with the talent on hand at times. One thing I'll give Cleveland and Milwaukee credit for is they are willing to roll with their younger talent and let them endure growing pains and let them grow. I think our FO needs to adopt that philosophy more and trust in the ceiling more than a solid floor at times. If I were in charge, Paddack would be gone, a decent prospect or two might be gone, but we'd have a proven ML 1B instead of France. But I CAN appreciate having Paddack around still as a viable ML SP to begin the season. Who knows, maybe he does well enough he could be moved in a deal for help elsewhere with Festa and others knocking down the door.

I watched Lee in a couple of ST games last season, as well as during the regular season. I don't know that he's athletic enough to be a starting SS at the ML level. But he can play the position adequately on an occasional basis for sure. But at 3B and 2B I saw a smart ballplayer that took good position, had good hands, made smooth hand changes and pivots, and had a solid arm. I have no issues wherever they put him, but it does seem to make more sense for him at 2B and Lewis at 3B. His bat was looking really good in ST. It looked good again in St Paul once he got over his back issue. It looked good...better than it probably is...his first few games up, and then he was poor after that. How much of that was being a rookie? How much was the shoulder issue he developed? How much was a combination of both? My philosophy is when a guy hits in college, and then hits in the minors, the potential exists he will do so at the ML level, allowing for being a rookie, or dealing with injuries, or both. My personal opinion/hope is Lee IS ready to take the 2B job. And the bat will play. But I'm suspecting the 2026 version of his bat will be better than what we see in 2025 due to experience and the nature of his baseball intelligence just making adjustments.

I love good defense. I love defense helping the pitching staff. Run prevention is a combination of the pitcher and the position players. But offense is still king, overall, at most positions. That obviously means 1B as well. We have to remember that an extra base runner, or opportunity, does mean more work for the pitcher at times. But it doesn't mean said runner will come home. So agree that a run scored by your offense is often better than a missed defensive play in the long run. And the way the game is played now is vastly different than 20 years ago. It used to be very few catchers, SS, or CF were producers. They were defense first. Second base was largely the same. But in the modern game of today, there are so many offensive SS, 2B, CF that offense comes from different sources than we used to see. And maybe that's why we're seeing such a drop in production league wide at 1B. You no longer NEED that spot to be your middle of the order BIG BAT. Still, I really miss having an everyday 1B who could handle the position defensively and STILL produce. It really feels like a missed opportunity in the Twins lineup at the moment.

Wanted to add that I love Paddack's enthusiasm for this season, but he's also being a bit impractical in his hopes. And that's OK. I'm glad he feels good and is ready to contribute and have a good season. What's going to be interesting is seeing how his offseason plan turns out. He took about a week or so off, and then spent time almost daily either throwing a baseball, or football I believe, in an attempt to keep his arm loose and strong. The thought being maybe keeping his arm more active...without overdoing it we hope...will make it stronger and more durable. I can see the method to the madness there. I guess we'll see.

I think Correa meant in general, right? And not just this season? Regardless, he and I are both optimists at heart! But I don't think his optimism is misplaced if Lewis can shake those pesky muscle pulls and tweaks that have plagued him, and Correa's own plantar issues are over and done. As amazing as Buxton is when he plays, the fact is Rodriguez will be up sometime this season, and will hopefully be established in 2026. Combine Larnach and Wallner just approaching what should be their peak years, add in Jenkins at some point in 2026, and the offensive production should be there. Oh, less we forget Keaschall arriving this season as well, and if Lee gets his bat right, the INF begins to gel as well. That's all the more true if SOMEONE can take over 1B full time internally, or the new owners will OK additional payroll to make it happen. Personally, I like Jeffers. But he's going to need a new partner of some sort next season. The front 3 of the rotation are all intact through 2027, barring any extensions. SWR, Festa, and others have just arrived, or will be arriving soon for additional help/depth, and a couple may move to the pen. How long Duran and Jax are affordable may influence the pen. Stewart isn't getting younger, even assuming good health. But Sands looks like a keeper. Alcala isn't expensive at all. Does a full time pen role unlock Varland's potential? Can Funderburk get over 2024...he had a couple minor injuries i believe...and build on his solid 2023? Do the Twins move LH Nowlin to the pen and get another hard throwing K arm for the pen? Is Adams destined to follow the Jax and Sands model and become a nice pen piece? (I'm betting that's where he ends up). What IF Prielipp DOES move to the pen? (Still not sure about that one). Everyone mentioned here is on the 40 man now, or really close to debuting in 2025 or 2026. And perhaps new ownership allows for an extension or two, and a smart addition or two. I'm not presimistic about 2025. I like most of this team, despite some flaws and a hole or two. And I plan to enjoy a winning team! But I'm actually more excited about 2026 and beyond right now. World series possibilities? Maybe. But a good team making the playoffs means you have a chance.

Apparently math is hard or my eyesight is fade. He will be 24yo shortly after the season begins, not 25. Thank you for the correction.

The reason teams had interest in acquiring Paddack is the same reason he might be of quality service to the Twins, he's not expensive, he's not yet 30yo, and he's further removed from surgery. That MIGHT mean his velocity becomes more consistent, and his vaunted changeup that he seemed to lose a feel for in 2024 might be back in 2025. To me that might be the biggest opportunity for him having a good season, does his change come back all the way? Honestly, I'd rather he was moved with another piece or two for a bat that might make a difference, or as part of a move to shed salary and take on salary for said bat. No question the rotation is deeper to begin the season WITH Paddack. And I've never said I don't like the guy or I expect him to stink. I just rather would have been more aggressive in "trusting" my young arms and begun the season with SWR and Festa holding down the final 2 spots. But I wouldn't be surprised if Paddack had himself a solid season in 2025.

I have nothing against the kid. I'd like to have as many good pitching prospects as we can. But I just don't see the fit here. He had a very nice 2024, but 2/3 of his season was at A+ ball and the other 1/3 was at AA. He's going to turn 24yo in early May shortly after the season begins. Is he really so much better than the arms we already have at AAA and AA that he's worth trading a decent prospect for? I don't know. I'm asking. And for a team with plans to contend for the playoffs, can we really afford a 7 man pen? Because that's what you're going to be playing with most days. A stashed long man to eat innings is only going to be used once every 7-10 days. I say this based on how such an arm was used by the Twins previously. Now, there might be a game where he HAS to pitch because it's all men on deck during a tough, tight series with someone, but that only further increases the need for him to be something more than just a stashed innings eater. I'd be happy to trade with the Phillies to keep him, provided we don't give up another really good prospect for him. In that scenario, 1+1 does not equal 2 to me, it's just swapping out prospects. And maybe I'm missing something. Maybe he's going to jump from 8 games at AA and really rock the 8th spot in the pen. He's interesting. It would be nice to keep him. But the odds of him being a major contributor to the pen with no options available...when we already have a couple of those...just doesn't feel like a fit for this team, IMO.

The Twins are going to miss Santana's defense. That's not even debatable I don't think. The question is how much they are going to miss it? And that's not just how well/average/poor France and Miranda play 1B. Correa is great at SS. Period. Lewis was a 3B in HS before taking over SS his senior year. He's got a strong arm and remains a good athlete, even with a loss of speed. I also can't recall throwing issues until sometime last season. He gets his throwing motion back to "normal" and 3B is just fine, and potentially good. Can Lee take 2B and it his? He isn't a speed, but he doesn't have to be. He positions himself well, seems to have good instincts, soft hands, is smooth in his motions, and a plenty strong arm for 2B. If Lewis's arm is "fixed" and Lee is ready for full time duty, I think the INF is pretty solid, if with questions about 1B. (And I think Castro is just fine in his role). Solid at catcher, solid up the middle INF, and solid in CF. The corners might be a little rough, but that's not fair to Lewis, or any improvements from Larnach and Wallner. Bad 1B defense, no Lee at 2B, Lewis's arm keeps frustrating, then the INF might be in some trouble. But Lewis right and Lee in place, I think the INF might be OK.

I really didn't want him with the 1st pick, but like him at 60, even with some bust risk. He may always K too much, but good power and e en decent BB numbers make him potentially dangerous. It feels to me as if he can just harness in his chase rate that the contact and BB rates would both improve. Just harness in the crazy swings and he's got a chance. You absolutely keep him at 3B for as long as possible. If he's OK there, that means he's got more value...even in a part time 3B role...for the Twins, or for another team in trade. But I'd still.be playing him at 1B about 30% of the time now. Plenty of opportunity to play and improve at 3B, but a chance to get his feet under him at 1B for a future move.

Right now you're probably looking at Culpepper, Ohl, MacLeod, Jones, Langenberg, and very possibly Prielipp.

Rocco listed Paddack as one of the 4 starters in one conversation but held off on naming the #5 spot. SWR ran out of gas late. But before he did, he was actually improving and showing confidence and enthusiasm on the mound, as if he really understood that he belonged. He's got to be the favorite based on what he did last season. But I don't know that he should be handed a spot. What if Festa...who has more upside...has the better spring? I think it comes down to those 2, with the "loser" being next in line when someone is needed. And at some point, they're going to need additional arms. It's not an "if", it's always a "when" for every club.

I believe he could be lights out in the pen! But only turned 24yo in January. His stuff is just good to not still look at him as a SP. I agree with the basic framework that @bean5302 laid out, a slow ramp up of number of pitches thrown and innings. Basically, putting him on the Ober and Raya path of a buildup. I think you see how well he does, and how his arm and body respond. If he's healthy and doing well, there's probably a time during the season when you reign in his pitch count back in as to not over extend him. That might mean starting an inning out of the pen and going back down to 3 or 2 IP. That has the POSSIBILITY of him being a 1 IP difference maker late in the year for the Twins. But I'm not betting on it. I think the idea is ramp him up, stretch him out, and then maybe back him down some with the intent of being ready to be ready for 2026 at age 25. I know he's thrown very little, and he only tossed 23.1 innings in 2024, but they were impressive innings with tremendous stuff. I'm wondering if he doesn't just go straight to AA for this upcoming season.

Play your best/most talented players. And put your best/most talented players in a position to succeed. Varland has the ability to be good in the pen, potentially very good. Festa and Matthews are ahead of him in the rotation right now. Morris and Lewis are right behind them, along with Raya. Even if Paddack had been moved...was still moved...I'd still place Varland in the pen and trust in my young rotation arms. It's probably not fair for Festa and Varland to begin the season in St Paul. But these things tend to work out...(see Ober: 2023)...and they'll get their ML time.

There's a very real chance that Keaschall settles in at 1B if Lee takes over 2B. Forget arguements he's too talented and athletic to be placed at 1B. There is an opening, he's athletically talented enough to be a quality defender there, and bring really good offense. Just because he's not a 30HR bopper doesn't change the fact that he can be a very good offensive producer. Amick, drafted last year, has a chance to be a very good power producer and decent hitter. He's probably not going to stick at 3B. That's the top 2, right now IMO.

As I said in another OP post, it's possible either of Larnach or Wallner MIGHT be able to adapt to 1B. The problem is we're talking career OF who might not have played on the dirt since college or HS! And now they have to scoop, as well as adjust to odd throws, as well as learning the basics of handling a ground ball at 1B. IMO, the FO has taken "position less defense" one step too far when it comes to 1B. And it IS the least valuable defensive position overall, and always has been. But 1B has been handled average-ish with the likes of Sano and Arraez and Solano before Santana last season. The difference is those guys were INF and more used to playing in the dirt. Sabato was the ONE GUY the drafted as a pure 1B and that's tured out to be a bust! But 1B SHOULD still be considered an important position, and not JUST due to offense. Better defense is better defense. Larnach or Wallner are far down my 1B option spectrum. I'd bet real $...and I'm not a betting man...that Julien would be a better defensive 1B than Larnach because he's simply USED to playing in the dirt. But I'm also anti-conventional when it comes to roster construction. I despise the "he's too good of an athlete to be played at 1B" mantra because it's ridiculous. There is NOTHING wrong with Keaschall being able to play 2B, AND being able to play a good CF/LF and maybe even some SS/3B if his arm recovers 100%. He could be an even better version of Castro! But why couldn't he just be an outstanding 1B? Being a great athlete means what, that he could be really good defensively at 1B vs a statue? And how does playing 1B decrease his potential offensively from being a potentially good hitter, OB%, good XB hitter, and a guy who can steal bases? Erstad of the Angels a few years ago and Cody Bellinger were true CF who also played 1B because THEY COULD, and the offense was the same. So no to Larnach. And very much a YES to making Keaschall a stud 1B with great offense.

I have ZERO issues with Bader covering LF against LHP. He's a quality defender with good range and a good arm. And there is more territory to cover in LF. Conversely, Wallner and Larnach are a better fit in those scenarios as there is less total ground to cover...at least at home...and while Larnach doesn't have Wallner's cannon, he's got a solid arm. Whoever doesn't start is available to come off the bench later in the game. Meanwhile, as stated in the OP, both Larnach and Wallner did raise their performance somewhat against LHP in 2024. With little doubt, maturity/experience has something to do with that, but also they just received more opportunity in 2024 to do so. Neither of them...or any other LH hitter...will ever grow to an acceptable level unless actually given the opportunity to improve. So this is a potential win-win. I think the objection I, and others, have had is to build the entire roster to be platoon heavy. You end up with a roster of "specialists" that completely messes you up later in games when pitcher handedness swaps. This scenario doesn't do this. It's the smart way to do SOME platooning. There's also a thought that having a LH bat, or two even, in a lineup against a LHSP might play a little against said SP simply because he has to re-think and change his approach just a little a time or two through the lineup when a LH bat comes up. And let's face it, Larnach and Wallner both have the ability to make major damage on a mistake pitch against a LHP. So again, this works. Martin is out of the equation, IMO, assuming he makes the roster, unless he's in LF and Bader is in CF to give Buxton a day off. But the same theory applies.

Keaschall teasing everyone with his future is my #1, though he might begin limited to DH only as they test out his arm. I believe he's supposed to be full go by mid March? My #2 is Canterino. The TJ is over and done with and he's FINALLY due a little good luck in his pro career. He won't break with the club, but he's going to be used ONE INNING at a time in the spring and look like it will be between he and Varland for "next man up" when they need a pen arm.

Biggest impact? Keaschall is the easy answer to the #1. It's only a question as to when he's up to help. I can see Blewett getting a shot at some point. But I think one of Lewis or Morris has a greater opportunity for a major impact as the season goes along. Festa, then Matthews in a pecking order for help, But I could see Lewis or Morris coming up before Raya, despite not being on the 40 man yet. Funderburk should be far ahead of Misiewicz, but I can see him making some appearances. Biggest potential surprise? How about Speas at 27yo and with his 6th organization suddenly finding a modicum of control and being a surprise arm in the pen?