DocBauer

Of the 3 options, I vote for #1. That being said, I'd like to replace Bailey with about 3 or 4 others I think. Just don't know he's the best cheap/bounce back option. How about Shaw at 1B and keep Sano at 3B? Greater continuity, a good 1B, and Shaw can still bring value by playin 3 positions if/when Raley/Rooker/Kirilloff are ready to take over 1B.

I admit to being concerned about his injury history and a dependability factor. But I will say that I was very impressed how players and pitchers were both handled last season in regard to rest and off days. It never fully prevented injuries, and unfortunately we got hit with several all at once late, but pitchers in particular I was impressed with. Maybe they could nurse Ryu through at least 28 starts with a skip here and there.

Just some overall thoughts on the topic at hand. I want the Twins to move the needle. They are very good, but there is room to get better. I think you would clearly find the Twins themselves feeling the same way. Now, in addition to just getting better, there really is one primary, initial goal; reaching the post season. You can't win squat unless you get their first. Period. I would love the Twins to acquire a true ACE pitcher. Not going to argue the value of the 2 FA available or the viability to actually join the Twins, other than to state the obvious that there never really are too many of these guys around. And there sure isn't anyone out there, to my knowledge, with a FOR SALE sign in the window offering up said ACE type pitcher. But the team can, should, will improve themselves via FA or trade on the mound. I don't have any illusions that Bumgarner will suddenly return to his previous form. However, a new staff and new opportunity may indeed see some sort of up tick. But if he could join Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda creating a quality and deep rotation of #2-3's, I would be very happy with that. Perhaps Bumgarner is not that guy. Perhaps it's someone they need to trade for. I think it's a bit misguided to go shopping and ordering up an All Star #1 ACE SP. It just doesn't work that way. But you can still get deeper, stronger and better. I just hope they pick the right guy, whoever he may be.

FWIW, on the last Gleeman and the Geek, Aaron stated he had heard rumors that the Twins may be higher on Ryu than Bumgarner. He was clear there was nothing definitive however. Just thought I'd toss it out there.

While it is a hunch I have, to be clear, I'd only see a trade like this as the Twins would see Archer reverting back to his old self and joining Berrios and Odorizzi as a top 3 SP. The old Archer...again, not an ACE...would be that. If he were speculated as being a 4th or 5th SP, there are 4-5 guys on the market that would only cost $ I would bring in rather than trade prospects. As to what I would deem fair trade value? I always hate that game because for one thing, it depends on the other team, their needs, and do they want close to ready or further away but with more potential? They will want to recoup their losses in their side of the Archer trade, help with a rebuild, but know they can't ask for the moon after a bad season. I would say something like Gordon, Rooker and Colina or Enlow.

The Pirates have a new GM and are probably in at least some form of re-build mode. They also have a new manager in Shelton who is very familiar with the players/prospects in the Twins organization. Why do I keep getting the feeling the Pirates will trade the disappointing Archer to Minnesota for a small but fair package. The Twins would love it as they believe Johnson can right him and get him back to his old self. Not an ACE, but a legitimate #2-3 power pitcher.

Would I be upset if we signed Ryu? No. The guy can pitch. And maybe Wes and Rocco can nurture him for 180IP per season to make it work. But if we were going to take a shot, I'd rather bet on the bionic arm of Bumgarner. His injuries were a motocross accident and a freak injury where a ball hit his hand, IIRC. Despite all his IP, I would still feel better about him, his experience and bulldog mentality vs a guy 3yrs older who can't stay on the mound. Bumgarner...and this is what scares me...is just ready for TJ or a rotator cuff or labrum problem based on all his IP. But what I love about him is he just may indeed have a bionic arm. Maybe he is a LH version of Jack Morris. Laugh if you will. But think about Verlander with Detroit. He looked almost cooked. Then he rebounded and was traded and found a second life. Bumgarner doesn't have, and probably never had, Verlander's velocity. But pitching isn't always about pure velocity. New team, fresh experience, new coaching, I would bet more on him and his arm and experience and attitude over Ryu in a heartbeat. I know we could get burned. But isn't that true for any 30yr old pitcher with miles on his arm? But I am willing to take the chance on MadBum and what he has left if the cost doesn't get crazy.

LOVE this post! In a few posts, I'm sure I have come across as 100% behind Wheeler. But I have also stated I was very torn between he and Bumgarner. Each offers up a lot, potentially, for different reasons. But I have also stated, many times, that I have been about 50/50 whether or not the "out of family" arm we bring in was via FA or trade. Like you, I dont know who that will be. A surprise the way Odorizzi was? A name we all know like Gray, etc? Or maybe Archer back to the AL to work with Johnson and recapture himself? I find myself really trusting the process this FO is following. And I wouldn't be surprised if we "lose out" on the big FA arms and end up bringing a surprise in via trade.

I absolutely believe Thorpe could thrive in the bullpen. And I get going north with your best arms. (You can always move a young arm back to the rotation later, we've seen it done). But I would guess the Twins really want him to concentrate on starting right now, even if that means Rochester to begin the year. Graterol is a quandary because he really should be starting, and I think we, the FO, and the mailman all know and believe that. And I don't think it's about service time. It's about a decent 3rd pitch and stretching him further out and just gaining experience. I have no clue how they will do it. But between the ML and milb level, I see some slips, and following some designated starters to get the best of him in 2020 without over using him.

We will need at least one of them to cover the first 30-40 days, as I just mentioned. I have a pretty strong feeling we will sign a flier after we acquire that last important arm, FA or trade. How good that bounceback, flier arm does will shape the opportunity for the kids. And don't get me wrong, those young guys need opportunity! How else will they be able to become potential fixtures? But wouldn't it be something if they were depth for the rotation and pen and FORCED their way in to a spot?

Actually, I have always believed strongly both would be back. It made too much sense not to happen. The fit is good. The $ were there. They like being here and the FO, staff and team wanted them here. In fact, Oddo has even stated he is open to an extension vs the 1yr. To me the question has always been FA or trade, where does that other really good arm come from to join them and Berrios? I am 100% on board for a flier FA/rebound option and have always expected one, depending on the market and how it unfolds. But I've also always felt the FO might just keep the 5th spot open for all the young guys. Of course, the caveat to that is also needing them to help cover the first 30-40 days without Pineda. I don't know who it will be, but I'm expecting a $5-6M 1yr deal for someone after we acquire that one top arm.

He can fully participate in ST. I remain unsure if he can hang around Ft Myers during the suspension or has to workout on his own. He then gets, I believe, 15 days of milb before he has to be activated. All things go, he should be ready early to mid May.

Tremendous post, Ted! Really enjoyed it! Look, I'm bummed on losing out on Wheeler and the hoped for potential he would climb the ladder. But until the smoke clears and the dust settles, we simply don't know what the FO is going to do yet. What if we lose out on Bumgarner and Ryu, etc, but the FO pulls off a trade for Gray? What if the grab Archer away from the re-building Pirates for a fair package and back in the AL and working with Johnson he pitches as well as he ever has? Will anyone care then we lost out on the big name FA? Without making any huge moves, and even with collapses by Perez and Gibson, we had some of the best SP in the league last year by what we DID HAVE. Despite not making the moves we all cried out for in the bullpen, they cobbled together a workable group that changed out and got better the second half of the year. (Even with the Dyson move completely blowing up). With little exception, I can't find fault with most any move this FO has made the past 2 years. (Verdict is out on a couple still). They have been aggressive at times, inventive at times, swapped out temporary assets for at least fliers, eaten $ on occasion, and basically run the entire organization from top to bottom very differently than it was in the past. Between draft selections, international FA and trades, they have assembled one of the best and deepest farm systems in MLB. They talk about building an organization and maintaining stability. This means having prospects to promote...which they have done far more aggressively...but also having prospects to move. And I think you will start to see some of that happening in the not to distant future. As someone else pointed out, there are a handful of teams in MLB that can actually afford to have $20-30+M in dead money on the books. Most teams, including the Twins, can't afford to do that. So at some point, Darvish last year, Wheeler this year, the FO just decides a certain number is enough. From what we have heard about Wheeler...and we don't know if the Twins were willing to bump their offer or not...he turned down the Dirty Sox for the Phillies despite a reportedly higher offer. It happens. I get WANT and EXCITEMENT, but there are a lot of ways to build a good ballclub that can compete. And I say again, when the dust settles and smoke clears, and this team is in the thick of things again, will it matter how they accomplished it? Or just that they have?

I really liked Vogt if not Castro, as I stated in the other thread, but this is a fine move for 1 yr. Solid, experienced, some power, and just a decent compliment to Garver.

Meh. Really liked Vogt if it wasn't going to be Castro. Avila doesn't exactly move the needle, but nice defense, experienced, some power and no automatic out. Works for a year for me.

Great post! Someone needs to re-post stats and standings from 2019. Seems a lot of people have forgotten how highly ranked/successful our rotation was last year even with the fade of Perez and Gibson.

There are 2 answers available. It just depends If you believe the budget target for 2020 is $130M or $140M. So they entered FA with $61-$71M to spend. Personally, I believe they will go up to $140M if the right moves make sense. J mean, they were at $130M coming off the unexpected wild card 2yrs ago. Why wouldn't they be willing to bump to $140 coming off 101 wins and a division championship. Just my opinion. So $43M available after Odorizzi and Pineda.

Super happy about this and glad it was for 2yrs and not one. A little less than I expected though. Thought they might have to go $12M

Exactly. Why I like the idea of Shaw more and more for versatility sake. Within the next season or so, how about Lewis at 3B, but he can also play CF/SS/2B. Just because Kirilloff might fit in as the primary 1B doesn't mean he can't continue to play OF. Now, Sano becomes the primary DH but can also still play 1B/3B. (Also part of the reason I'm kinda excited about Raley)

This! 2016-18 were solid to great years. And with his versatility at 2B/3B he can fill in here and there if/when needed, especially if/when Kirilloff/Raley/Rooker are ready.

What about Taijuan Walker?

He should get $18 per. But the way things are moving, that won't get it done so he'll get $20. The question is 3 or 4 years?

If the velocity is indeed there and there are no health concerns, why wouldn't you add him? Career numbers show a quality 7th/8th inning guy. I'd rather see 2 for $12 but could do 2 for $14. I'm also starting to have second thoughts about Perez. I wonder about a 1yr at $4-5M and convince him it's time to re-invent himself as a RP.

Keuchel and Pineda, unless you like Keuchel better than Pineda. After that, my preference is to leave the 5th spot open for the young guys to fight for and roll through as necessary, at some point, they have to be given opportunity. However, depth and competition are good things to have. Opportunity can knock at diffedent times and come in different variations. And sometimes bounce back fliers turn out quite well. Not particularly a fan of Gausmanm but not a hater either. If he, or one of the other similar options available, can be brought in for only $4-5M, preferably with some sort of club option in case you guess right, I don't have a problem with it and can definitely get on board.

I was leaning Wheeler due to pure velocity, but have been torn between he and Bumgarner. I like having that LH in the rotation and you can't beat his postseason experience. Now that Wheeler is off the board, time to get moving and get him signed. Then grab Pineda. I'm not a fan of Ryu despite his numbers. He just can't be relied on and a soft throwing LH to the AL bothers me. I honestly think if you want to sign a second LH you go for Keuchel. He's been a stalwart and knows the AL already.