DocBauer

Danchat beat me to it, really happy with his return and sorta felt it was a done deal all along. Slots in 6th-7th innings very well. But really need someone we can trust from the LH side in those same innings. Still like a SP conversion for the role.

Without knowing all the details, such as what the Twins fully offered, (heard they and others offered 4yrs, but not 5, but unsure of the $ details), it's hard for me to accurately comment on Bumgarner. It sure sounds like being so close to "home" was a big pull for him. But the contract he signed sounded much more reasonable than what some reports stated he might be asking or signing for. Also, even if the Twins didn't want to go the 5yr, couldn't they have front loaded a 4yr offer? I think I'm maybe more bummed losing out here as I really thought the details would make more sense. And it seems that is the case. I really think he would have been a quality #2 quality SP for the next couple of years with experience and some bulldog edge to him. Maybe he just wouldn't have come no matter what unless the annual was considerably higher. And we may never know. But this one stinks a little bit.

Great post! And I won't argue because as normal I agree as we usually seem to. But I want to play devil's advocate, not just for fun, but because I think it's a salient point that maybe deserves it's own thread. Maybe the smart thing is to NOT play the FA game at this time. I can use various teams and examples, but will use the Royals and their fairly recent success as an example. Payroll wise, they went "all in " for a 2 year stretch. Now, I and the FO like the idea of sustainability contention, as would you and most I believe, but when Windows open, you are silly to close them. For arguement sake, they built their team on defense, speed, decent SP and a strong bullpen. If we look hard at our current team, we see athleticism but not speed in the normal context. We see decent but not great defense, but some improvement potential from existing talent. We also see the potential for a really nice bullpen and I would argue an above average bullpen. Offensively, forget the live or dead ball arguement as it affects everyone, we have a very dangerous offense. I'm honestly asking, are we better off just not playing this multi year and $80-100M game for a SP and taking a different approach? 1] Sign someone like Teheran and Wood, as examples, to fill out the rotation and let Johnson work with them. Shorter contracts and combined, less $ money than any of the remaining FA options. Let Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Graterol, etc, fill in for Pineda, provide depth, and EARN their time and promotion. 2] Continue to add to what is quickly becoming a strong and deep bullpen, bring back Romo or sign one of the other RHRP the Twins have been tied to. Talk to Moore and Smyly, veteran LH Nick brought up recently in a different OP, and convince them it is time to convert to being a RP to further interrupted and disappointing careers and still earn millions. 3] Replace the offense or potential offense of Cron with either a healthy Cron, or Shaw, or player X. While I DESPISE to give the Yankees credit for anything, one of the best moves they made last off season was signing LeMahieu and making him a primary 1B. Is there another player out there like him? SOMEONE needs to be signed so Marwin can keep being Marwin. If the above happens, and the numbers make sense for an acceptable payroll, the rumors of a Donaldson signing could even take place, even though I'm not sure we have to go that route. What do YOU think? Keep the prospects for NOW at least, add a couple 3-4 arms with potential, add one more decent bat, add those couple RP, and compete as an overall deep team without that that BIG contract.

Mike, a very smart post. And I wouldn't disagree at the heart of it. BUT...and At times there IS a BUT...what if Cruz is another Papi and performs just as well in 2020 as he did this year, and has done for years, is be really gone? Odorizzi has stated he'd like to sign an extension. I really don't have a clue what terms that may include as I type this, but if he pitches just as well in 2020 as 2019, or even improves as he's just at that precise point in his career where talent and knowledge meet, do you want him to walk? Rosario is a bit different, no matter how much I love him and still feel he hasn't reached full potential yet, because there are a few guys getting close who could make him replaceable. Every season is unique unto itself, and that includes both roster and payroll. But to automatically assume a certain amount of payroll will be off the books is not salient. A team has to live season to season, BUT...and there is that BUT again...sometimes a team has to consider the long play as well. I am NOT saying the Twins shouldn't spend! I hope they do and expect they will, though I am not certain who, how much, and is it all $ or prospects. And I promise you when they do, I will dance a happy and hopeful Snoopy dance! If I can figure out how to do so, I will attempt to post actual dance here on TD so everyone can laugh at me! I just want whatever they do to be smart and not self-defeating down the line. There are options, cards to be played, and dominos to yet fall. Considering how crazy some contracts and demands are right now, I just don't want a move that sounds good but turns out not to be.

Unless you have the top pick in the draft...on rare occasions maybe the 2nd or 3rd...and there is a Clemons or Strasburg there, you don't draft an ACE. You find arms you like and project and develop them. We are starting to see real changes in the development structure of the Twins system that could pay off over the next couple of years. Debate all you will, but Berrios has that kind of potential still at 26yo. Gtaterol, with any kind of decent 3rd pitch and a little time and nurturing could be that type. Balazovic has a lot of steam. Duran maybe? But the Twins are in a unique and somewhat awkward position right now. They have the $ to make a move that helps this team for at least a couple of years. But the market has shifted again and the terms have escalated beyond what I think anyone anywhere expected. Do they take a shot here and overpay and figure out payroll 3 and 4 years from now when they get there? Do they try to front load a deal for greater flexibility down the road? That's what I'd be trying to do. Or are they better off deepening the pen, add at least a decent if not good bat to replace Cron and deepen the lineup as well as add at least one decent solid rotation piece and in lue of some expensive rotation piece? I don't know which way is smarter. You can enhance the club and it's chances either way. But just saying "go get an ACE no matter what" isn't an accurate wish.

Kind of why I like the idea of a bounce back by Shaw vs a traditional 1B. Now, the Donaldson idea isn't a bad one, but i just don't see it happening.

Healthy, the FO convinced he is healthy, I'm still in on Cron. Secondary option, think I like a bounceback by Shaw over Smoak or Moreland.

I've heard the rumors about Donaldson but really don't have an opinion on his personality or influence. But regardless, I'm just not sold. I like the optimism of the OP, but I don't think he fits. Call me fickle, but I worry about age and don't buy him sliding to DH to replace Cruz... though he easily could...because I'm seeing a 3B/DH/1B mashup of Sano, Lewis and Kirilloff with Rooker and Raley tossed in potentially. Hate to be a broken record, but a SP is still key. Possibly a flier for $5-8M for another SP option rather than just guaranteeing an open spot for the young guys. Plus, there is still some missed time early on for Pineda. We also need Romo back, or one if the other veteran pen arms the Twins have been linked to. And I would absolutely jump at the chance for a LH arm to convert like Moore or Smyly, a couple flier options Nick mentioned in a different article. All of these proposed moves make us better and get us to the $140M mark.

One thing I really like about this list is there is a real chance as many as 9 of the listed 15 could see MLB before 2020 is done. Now, we have a deep and talented team, so I'm not saying it's going to happen. Lewis and Balazovic may be long shots, but not extreme long shots. Of course, if they would only make token appearances, then maybe keeping them off the 40 man until later might be prudent.

Agreeing with Parker and Brian. Astudillo got off to a good start before his oblique injury. After he came back, he was a little slow out of the gate and then seemed to start getting hot before getting dinged again. He just needs a little more patience and recognition. Superior contact with decent power is kinda special. As long as the contact...or in some cases missed contact...isn't balls near the dirt and a foot outside. As long as he just sticks to a plan and a certain zone, even a large zone, and remain in that box he is a solid hitter. His defense will never be anything special. But he's decent wherever you put him. He can be a very valuable part of the roster.

And you bring up an interesting point I have mentioned before. I don't believe his offseason regiment is an issue. And I have absolutely no clue what his in-season routine is. But for such a highly conditioned young athlete, he seems to have a late season fade each season after looking so dominant previously. I'm wondering if he is working too hard during the season and should back off to maintain endurance and energy.

But if he had to have that 4th year, you can front load the contract. Just saying.

I am going to echo keeping it at 3yrs and paying extra for $80M. If things continue to get silly and there's a 4th year, try to front load the deal.

Assuming we flat miss out in FA, I'm open to Price if he is healthy. But I need enough $ eaten to make his annual value to be $25M or less. Boston gets nothing in our top 10 prospect list. They probably get 1 in the next 10 and a flier. As detailed by others here, healthy, he has performed well recently. It's the healthy and stay healthy part that is key to the deal working.

Right now, this moment, I don't buy it. Would be one of the only moves made that would make sense to move Sano this young to 1B. Also keeps the offense extremely potent. If done, would signal they would look to the trade market for SP, maybe an additional flier, and focus on a pen addition or two and just avoid some of the crazy numbers and years we've seen thus far.

Maybe there is a reason Smith debuted so late, but 28yo and throws around 91-92MPH? Hard pass! Nice write up about Alcantara a few weeks ago. I admit I'm interested due to youth and velocity and would like to see what Johnson could do with him. But any Rosario conversation is an immediate stop if I'm the Marlins. And I LOVE Rosario! But if I'm a cheap, 105 loss team in re-build mode, why on earth would I want a veteran player with 2yrs control and costing me almost $9M next season? I'm looking for 1 of Kirilloff or Larnach, 1 of Balazovic, Duran or Enlow, and a Gordon or Blankenhorn "throw in". Alcantara has velocity, is young and controllable, why would I settle for less? Is that too much to give up? Just how much potential does the FO and Johnson see in Alcantara?

Nick, I love the way you are thinking here. But maybe not exactly the way you were thinking. Via FA or trade, I have no doubt another arm will be added to the rotation to compete with Berrios and Odorizzi. And I'm NOT going to get in to that because there are about 6 other threads that deal with it and NOT what we are talking about here. Unless the budget gets blown up a bit by a BP signing or two...which I'm OK with...i am fully in favor of adding a flier/bounce back rotation option. But unless $ amounts continue to go nuts, I see more than a handful of guys out there that may be available for anywhere from $5-8M who are as good and better than your list here. (I get you are targeting cheap fliers who could surprise). But I look at your list as being a couple of guys with high ceiling bullpen pieces. Moore and Smyly intrigue me the most, being LH. After so much injury and disappointment, isn't it the right time for either, or both, to consider a move to the pen? More appearances but limited IP, 1 or 2 on most days, and just throw their best stuff. This could/should be the perfect opportunity for these guys to re-invent themselves for their career.

Agreed. I like Dobnak's potential quite a bit. I think he has decent stuff, the right frame, decent velocity, etc. I think his rise last season should not be discounted. He appears determined, unflappable and has the sort of "it" intelligence factor. All good things! How good could he be? Let's check back in a season or two shall we. I like this kid a lot. But I also like Thorpe an awful lot too. I think some people discount him because he isn't 21-22yo old. But he missed two full seasons and has been pushed pretty aggressively since his return. And he's done very well. While his ML numbers for 2019 don't look all that great, there were innings and moments when you could see the potential. I think he is a legitimate ML SP with a floor of quality RP who could be Rogers-like, potentially. And in no way should we dismiss Smeltzer at this point. We saw flashes and potential of a bulldog, smart pitcher last season. But let's be real. If he can be nurtured a bit and keep his IP under control, Graterol is a HIGH END talent who could potentially explode over the next year or two. ALL of these guys have a chance to make real contributions in 2020 as the 5th SP, temp 4th SP while waiting for Pineda, and out of the pen. (There are a few others who could make their presence known before 2020 is over as well). And with experience, talent, coaching and the right opportunity, we will be able to approach 2021 with a couple of these guys penciled in to key roles. But this is a HIGH quality team with real potential. I don't knkw who the FO is going to bring on board to add to the top of the rotation, or whether it will be via FA or trade. I fully believe in the smarts of our FO to bring in a quality arm to add to the mix...even if it isn't exactly who may have been hoped for. But regardless, when you look at some of the arms available, there are a number of guys out there who could be brought in on a 1yr or 1+1 deal that still offer up experience and potential where you deepen your options and potential. As I stated elsewhere, there is and will be opportunity for these young guys. But get that one arm you really think can help, and then sign another whether you want to call it a flier or bounce back.

You may have hit on something, Ted. Perhaps the Twins needed to come out of the gates with guns blazing and hit Wheeler hard with 5yrs and $20+M per and just overwhelm him. Maybe their "reported" $100M and 5yrs WAS the first offer on the table. Do we know it wasn't? We already know he turned down more from the Dirty Sox and "reports" state the Twins weren't even in his final 4-5, for whatever reason. Would offering more in a counter offer even mattered? Some look at the last 2 offseasons and cry collusion. I see market correction, analytics, and lesser talent availability except for the top end who still got paid. I see a swing back, part of normal corrections we tend to see, and a deeper market of available talent. Have the Twins been slow to react, misjudging what was going to take place? Or have they maybe been prudent and intelligent with various FA and trade options still available? We may never know the answer. But there is time yet. And when the dust settles and the smoke clears, we may find out that the moves yet to be made by our FO will be well calculated, productive, and lead to another Central victory and a shot at the prize.

Not disagreeing with your premise of getting better. This is a good team, but with room to improve. But I do disagree with the root of your analysis. Berrios absolutely has room to grow and develop further. We have all seen the talent and potential. Odorizzi didn't pitch poorly and is pretty darn good. Dobnak was there because Pineda, pitching borderline outstanding, was not available. Gibson was a mess and wasn't really a factor. The Yankees had much more experience in such a setting. I don't think that should be dismissed. And while the Yankees endured quite a few injuries in 2019, they were relatively sound to close out the second half. Meanwhile, injuries and rust from injuries, plus the Pineda suspension, had an impact on the Twins, IMO. The Yankees were and are a good ballclub. And the Twins need to continue to grow, develop and improve themselves. No debate there. I believe they can and will. But various circumstances at the end of last year doesn't dim my opinion or perspective because a potential #5 SP with potential was thrust in to an unfair position.

Forgive me if it sounds as though I'm arguing with you, because that is not the point I'm trying to make. Many athletes do enjoy two homes, if not more. You always sort of hope players on your team fall in love with their city and remain there for events, charity work, etc. But most upper to top echelon players enjoy various residences to be sure. Joe Mauer, midwest born and raised, has a home in Florida and has for some time I believe. But as I stated above, it is naive and shortsighted if a player, and his family, consider living in the midwest from April to October some sort of cold, barren burden. Pretty sure it gets cold and nast in Chicago, NY and Boston. If they really want California and Florida weather year round, for example, nothing you can do to change that. Proximity to family and just wanting to live in a huge metropolitan environment is a different matter. But IMO, weather shouldn't be an issue.

Outstanding!! And that is exactly how these guys SHOULD approach their decision. And if they do, consider the following: 1] Twins are coming off 101 win season. 2] They have a FO that is progressive and locked in for the next 5 years. 3] The core of this 101 win team isn't going anywhere soon and the milb system is one of the best and deepest in MLB. 4] The manager is young, progressive, a players manager and the current MOY. The pitching coach is the same and well respected. 5] Target Field is one of the most beautiful ballparks around. Really, what's not positive here? If a ballplayer is really drawn by family proximity, or is simply drawn to a huge city like NY, LA, Chicago, Boston, etc, fine. Their preference and decision. But if they hold some belief that the Twin Cities is a backwater town without culture and diversity set amidst cornfields somewhere, then shame on them. And unless the plan is to live there year round, weather really shouldn't be an issue. With little exception, the weather here in the midwest is pretty nice from late April through the first couple weeks of October. Is it sunny and 85 every single day? No. But to believe weather is poor is just not accurate.

Between the 5th spot, filling in for Pineda, double headers, rest periods and hopefully LIMITED IR stints, I am hoping that by this time next year we feel we legitimately have TWO of these talented young guys penciled in to the 2021 rotation.

Very excited and pleased to have him back! To me, he maybe as important as Odorizzi being back. And yes, I mean that. He has had a nice, solid career with some outstanding runs, including going to an All Star game, FWIW, but injuries have curtailed his career somewhat. Healthy, he has some solid stuff and quality results. We saw that in 2019. He is at that perfect time of age and experience, with good stuff, that his next couple of seasons could be the best part of his career. The same might be said of Odorizzi, for that matter. I thought I had heard somewhere that with his knee fully sound, something that wasn't the case until January sometime last year, that he was getting in some good off season work. I hope that is true. In no way do I expect him to be Sveldt Mike next season, but just a little lighter, just a little better shape, could go a long way.

The merits of who/what Bumgarner is NOW and what he MAY BE have been debated. And to be honest, I am torn. There just as many positives in regard to numbers and results as positives. Big game, postseason experience tends to tip the scales his direction for me, along with general belief you can count in him for 30 GS and 180-200 IP. I have no illusions he is a #1 SP any longer. I believe he is as good as, and probably better than Odorizzi now, and for the next couple of years. (NOT a shot of Oddo by any means!) I firmly believe, if healthy and playing for a quality team, he will be an over priced but solid #3 type option for a couple more years. Contract $ or not, these are valuable and important factors to consider. I get trying to get the best deal you can. But if he really doesn't feel like he wants to be here, and will only be "happy" doing so with a 6yr deal for over $20M, I find myself souring very quickly. It's one thing to over pay and another to just get nuts. Ryu is very good when available. His contract would be shorter and much easier to swallow. My hope would be Johnson and Baldelli could nurture him much like they did with the rest of the staff in 2019 to make him available for 28 GS. I'm leaning his way now. I could buy in on Keuchel if it's a 3yr deal. I understand arguments about being an innings eater and control pitcher and what happens if that control suddenly slips. I understand the Twins infield isn't airtight defensively. My counters would be he certainly hasn't lost control yet and IMO, our defense isn't really all that bad, and has the potential to definitely get better in 2020 from normal progression that I expect from Sano, Polanco and Arraez.