DocBauer

I love his worth ethic and the fact that he's shown steady improvement, had that great ALF, and has shown real flashes. All of that, plus his age and steady advancement, I'm willing to chalk up his bad 2nd half last year to wearing down, pitchers making adjustments, etc. I think he profiles as a nice #2 hitter who just does everything well, without a single category where he just dominates. Of course, there still has to be improvement against LHP.

Overall, last 4 years, solid ERA in the AL and the AL East. Solid AVG, WHIP and SO and BB numbers. Nothing special, but solid all the way around. AVG in 2017 was career best. Still only 27. Still entering his prime years with a quality young team. A solid addition. Does he have more in him at 27?d That's the key. I can't remember the last time I saw a proven, at least decent, ML SP traded for a single prospect, much less one in A ball. Now I think Polacios has talent and a future. Despite not liking the drafting of Gordon so highly, I have become a fan and believer. I think he's going to be a nice ballplayer, maybe even a really good one. But I have said before, if I wasn't looking for almost immediate help, I'd really like one of the younger SS in the system. But still never figured it would be a 1 to 1 trade. Unless Palacios turns out to be an absolute ML stud, this is at worst an even trade. And at 27, a new team, change of scenery, new coaching ideas, maturity, this smells sweetly of a potential steal.

What really stinks is we just don't know what the thoughts and the plans are by the new FO. I hate that, but get it. Even as intelligent and fanatic of supporters as we are, they don't "owe" us an explanation as to what they see or are doing. I don't like it any more than the rest us, but there is a part of me that agrees with your statement and wonders if they aren't looking at a "big picture" for 2018 and beyond where they are looking at continued development from the existing roster, and really like some of the pitching talent on hand, and are just waiting for time/opportunity for some "show me" performances to feel the roster has arrived. Not painting rainbows and sunshine for a "meh" move that means little at this point, (And nobody has said this is the ONLY move they are going to make, it's only a singular move). I just wonder about their ideas of an end game here.

Serious question. There is NO WAY ANYONE, ANYWHERE who could see this as a major signing in any way, shape or form. It is the definition of a flier. But with the FO being so much more forward thinking in regards to analytics and the such, is there anything we could be missing here? Has there been an injury problem I'm not aware of? A mechanical issue not seen? Are there numbers in Detroit that suggest he'd be much better with a change of scenery? Has he been playing winter ball and suddenly looking different? Not being snarky, I'm honestly asking if we're missing something the FO might be looking at for this flier vs some other flier options that have been out there for an "extra" option that Sanchez appears to have been signed for.

I still believe the "big move" is going to take place soon, within a week, for a trade or FA. I'm still banking on FA. This does nothing for me. But I also felt/predicted they'd sign another FA on the cheap on a 1 year or flier for insurance and depth for the first couple of months. The money isn't even spent unless he makes the roster. And who knows, maybe we get lucky. But really guys, this is just another arm with experience to fill in due to injury, both Santana's and any others that pop up during the spring. Now....if they DON'T make another move....then I GOT NOTHING.

Mauer's defense! Darn phone!

Love Maker's defense. The overall improvement offensively speaks to me, considering his past numbers, as a return to better health further removed from his concussions vs a sudden abberation near the end of his career. He does still need to show himself again this season. I have no problem with 2 years at $8-10M. I can understand a bump there due to service time, etc. The Twins could make it happen, AND re-sign Dozier and still cut payroll between the two of them. (Which I've previously stated)

While very different pitchers, I always liked Berrios and Gonsalves both for their demeanor and reported work ethics. They both have that bulldog in them, and both seem to really grasp the idea of pitching, not just throwing. Both of them, at various stops, hit bumps before learning to make adjustments and then take off at that level. Just how good Gonsalves will be is yet to be determined. And I'm sure there will some growing pains, lime with most young pitchers. But I am a believer.

100%! Sign Lynn to a fair deal. Then sign someone like Tillman, maybe Vargas, on a 1 year. You build a deeper, better rotation without huge numbers, parting with any prospects, and you even buy time for your prospects. The downside? A healthy Santana, May back, Gibson showing his second half wasn't an illusion, Mejia keeps getting better and builds on his rookie campaign and you have some nice, young pitchers at AAA getting close and you suddenly have too much pitching? Oh the horror!

Nick, love your writing and this is one of your best posts lately. Why? Simply because you touch on both sides of the matter, shall we say, "fairly"? But I am going to agree on Cap's side here. I don't feel a great deal of discontent. Disappointment in some ways thus far, but not discontent. I don't live in the Twin Cities, so my knowledge of the culture is limited. But for various reasons, from what little I think I know, I just never saw Ohtani as a viable option. I did feel Darvish was a real possibility, and I'm mixed as to disappointed and angry we didn't land him. No excuses, but I'm still not certain we understand the full impact and details of contacts offered or how much true interest he had coming to us. And while there are no moral victories in sports, at least at the pro level, the fact we were in on Darvish at all is a HUGE change vs the previous administration. The bullpen has had, IMO, a very nice upgrade with no compromise contractually. There are nice arms as holdovers, and some really nice ones on the way. Knowing they were out of the Ohtani sweepstakes, they traded "nothing", (meaning no prospects, just Monopoly money to acquire a couple of interesting prospects. There was something I read today, forget the site, that mentioned the Twins were still looking at various extensions. I think that is very important. Further, with a largely young and still improving roster, I don't want the FO to be knee jerk. And Santana should be OK, you'd think, before the season gets too far along. Now, I WILL reach the level of discontent if the next week or so doesn't bring in a viable, quality SP. It was already a need before the Santana surgery. We lost out on Darvish, but there are still some strong FA options available in a depressed marketplace. If we don't see a move there, I will be downright PO'd and move beyond disappointment.

I also have reservations ranking him this high simply due to missing a year and shaking off rust after one half season of pro ball, despite his production there and draft status. But I get it, we're talking about potential and prospects. Also hard to drop them from something out of their control. I have to say, there have been various comments about certain player rankings when they are so young, so raw, and at lower levels. All prospects are just that. There are no guarantees, and we should all know that and remember that. But I am so excited for the amount of this raw talent at A+ and lower. I feel OK we're a little short at the high level, except for pitching, because we've graduated so much talent the past couple of years, position wise. One honest concern I have...and the 2018 season may just take care of this once complete...is Just how much young talent may have to be protected on the 40 man next off season.

Absolutely no question in my mind there will be a signing of one of the remaining FA or a trade for the rotation. After all, it was a concern before the Santana surgery, and it sure hasn't gone away. In fact, I expect a signing or trade soon, plus a flier on one of the lower tier FA on a 1 year deal for depth and insurance on Santana. Rotation: (Not in any order) TBD Berrios Gibson Mejia 1 year FA with look sees from milb talent and Duffy. Hughes a huge dark horse, a seat being kept warm for Santana, of course. Bullpen: Rodney Reed Duke Rogers Hildenberger Pressly Duffey, if not in the rotation Busentiz, outside looking in depending on Duffey. He just needs to flash a bit more. If he does, Duffey could be out. Moya, Jay, Curtiss, Reed and Chargois just waiting for their chance at Rochester. (Not including SP working their way in as relievers) The most interesting thing to me is the lack of seeming aggressiveness in regard to catcher. I really thought the Twins would re-sign Giminez on a milb contract. Really, Wilson is the ONLY roster move they made. Very surprised by this. Tells me the coaching staff and FO actually like and believe in Garver here, and that his limited time behind the plate to close the year was due to experience and status quo for the playoff run.

I know he's young, at least experience wise, but damn he looks like a natural hitter! I could see Ft Myers to begin the season, (get in a groove, etc), but the Twins are heavier in pitching talent in AA and AAA than positional talent. There is real opportunity for him to begin at AA, or get there soon. I know we have a new FO, but the Twins have NEVER been shy about promoting from AA if they thought someone had the "it" factor.

Late to the party on this one, for various reasons, so probably won't get read anyway, lol. Nick...appreciate what you are trying to do here, but really, it should have been a slightly altered/different article that simply said: "Don't give up on 2018 before it begins". But I really do understand and "get" your points. However: 1] Losing Santana sucks, no matter how you spin it. We can't change his injury, but, I'd rather have 2-4 weeks during the season when May might be back, and guys like Gonsalves, Slegers, Romero and Jorge could have a couple AAA months under their belt. Not sure I buy in to the idea of no auto extension for Santana in 2019. We LOVE numbers in baseball...except for age. The truth is Santana has pitched as well, or better, overall, in his Twins career as he has ever pitched. Unless this injury truly affects his ability/performance, he could be brought back in 2019. That wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, however. 2] I like additional IP and opportunity for the kids in spring. But will they face ML hitters or AAA/AAAA hitters? Experience is good for the kids, but they just aren't ready yet. 3] Who knows, maybe we dodged a bullet on Darvish. The Cubs were the one team that scared me, and damned if they didn't make the move I feared. We also may never truly know the Twins offer, but it sure sounds like the numbers per year were very close. The 6th year and opt out seemed to seal the deal. And I get we can't just get stupid in terms of numbers and details...but...to seem that close and not willing to bump up, or front load seems irresponsible to me. IMHO, this is the first time I've questioned the new FO. We will also never know, probably, how seriously Darvish really considered the Twins. That shouldn't just be swept under the rug either. As to my proposed alternate title to the article, I have NOT given up on 2018. Barring injury or sudden, unexpected regression, this lineup should be better in 2018. Sorry for those who wanted to lay out a pair of $10M per contracts, but the pen looms much better to me...with more help on the way. Plus, if Rogers, Pressly and Duffey can mature even a bit more, oh my! The rotation is still the issue. We ALL KNOW THIS. No secret. But how well did this team do last season with the rotation and pen they had and the numbers that marched through? Get Santana healthy. Watch Berrios...and Mejia...get better. See May come back. Gibson? SSS maybe, but something seemed to click the second half we hadn't seen before. And a couple of the kids could be ready later in the year. Silver lining? Not so much right now. Giving up on 2018? No way! The best news is the market is depressed for FA, and there are still some intriguing options out there to help. There is still the possibility of a trade, though I prefer to keep everything intact and spend the money. I'd sign Lynn or Cobb, whoever my scouts/advisors and myself seeing as the best fit for a fair contract and take a 1 year flier on someone else. After all, you can never have too much pitching.

Count me as a fan and believer in Kepler and his potential. And other than a FA filler, nobody is ready for a couple years from the system to replace him. POTENTIALLY,I could see Granite as a leadoff candidate and Dozier slides down. But Granite is still unproven at this point. While I'm not 100% sold on Archer, (I get IP and SO numbers), the overall ability and potential are there. He could be ready for that next step. But he's the only guy I'd even consider trading Kepler for at this point. Still rather offer up 4-5 quality prospects, maybe even Lewis. Not sure it would be enough, but I'd prefer to keep Kepler and the ML roster intact.

Didn't KC make 2 WS recently with a strong pen, good defense and solid offense? The Twins probably can't match their pen, but its better with more help on the way. They probably have a better offense. Need to deepen the rotation, even without a clear #1, IMO. McHugh is OK, but I think I'd rather sign a still solid, quality FA, lose the 3rd rounder, and keep the roster and system intact. For now anyway, and look at a future trade. The idea of Archer is a completely different animal. But what I will say is I'd rather keep Kepler and trade 4-5 prospects of quality...yes, maybe even Lewis...and not touch the ML roster. Much as I like Lewis, SS is pretty deep, as is the system as a whole, and if prefer that route if possible.

Disappointed and upset. As I stated in the other post, we'll never know the final offer or if Darvish really wanted to come here at all. (Honestly, I never thought he wanted to). Shame on the Twins if they close and didn't blink. That being said, I'm OK with a trade. I actually think I like Odorizzi more than Archer. Either way, I'm really not in on trading Kepler, and not just because I really believe in his game and potential. I'm also not sure there is anyone close to replacing him, which opens up another can of worms. To me, a trade is 4 or maybe even 5 quality prospects and keep the ML team intact. I much prefer money be spent at this point on either Lynn or Cobb. Honestly, I'm torn between both of them. They are not Darvish, but as I've stated before, they move the needle. 3 or 4 year deal or a 1 year to enter the market again? That's a different question. But I make the move for one of them. I then try for a 1 year deal on Garcia. Not interested? Then go to the next 1 year option. At this point, you lose a draft pick in the upper 20's. The system can afford that. You keep the roster and milb system intact for depth, competition, promotion and trade depth this year, next offseason, and you STILL deepen your rotation. You steel yourself for the temporary loss of Santana and any lingering issues, if they surface, and await a return of May. If nothing else, you help build a bridge to gain more time for Gonsalves and others to get ready. Can you imagine a couple positive signings and come mid season the Twins actually have enough depth to trade a pitcher, (Gibson or Mejia as possibilities), or milb players, relievers, or a combination thereof to add an important piece or two? Make a couple signings. Keep the system and ML roster intact. You help move the needle and build more depth. THEN you make additional moves as you can.

In principal, i agree completely. Payroll is low, overall, manageable even with the Darvish signing, and there is more payroll comjng off the books in tbe next couple of years. Do you realize the Twins could extend Dozier for 4 years, Mauer for 2, and STILL end up cutting their combined pay scheduled for 2018? The Twins are in a perfect (good) storm of opportunity right NOW. I'm OK with 5 years. I just don't think you really end up hurting yourself with regression vs expense that 5th season to shy away with what you probably get season's 1-4. I remain very Leary of a 6th season though, especially allowing maximum flexibility for other extensions that will need to take place in the near future. I think a 6th year option could make sense. If he pitches well enough to earn it, even with some regression, you have a viable SP to fill a spot that last season. I'd feel better in a contract that was maybe front-loaded though. Possibly front-loaded AND an optional 6th year that isn't outlandish to reach?

Despite being a pretty ardent follower of the Twins milb system, and intrigued by a ton of prospects from AAA down to last year's draft selections, 3 of the top 5 or so I have my eye on are Graterol, Thorpe and Romero. I see them being the same in many ways. Not the exact same pitcher. I mean, 2 are RH, Thorpe is LH, and both Graterol and Romero almost certainly have the highest ceiling. But Thorpe has some real talent, put up some really nice numbers early on and drew the watchful eye and commentary of several baseball people. All 3 have some real potential and all 3 had major injuries that cost them a load of time; Romero and Thorpe each lost 2 seasons and Graterol a full season plus. Imagine how close/closer they might be if healthy. Can't wait to see what they do this season!

Agree Nunez would be very smart. My only concern is, will a full and healthy roster, who plays 1B? Vargas would probably be gone in this scenario and that leaves Sano, which might be fine. Nunez is the better overall fielder, maybe/probably, with more overall versatility and the better overall hitter, but Reynolds really intrigues me. He might be the better roster "fit".

LOVE this post. Very smart. But we will continue to disagree on 2 pitchers better than Berrios. But that comes down to belief as well as cost and affect. Despite this unfortunate injury, I'm a believer in Santana, and never bought in to the theory his arm would fall off in 2018. He has pretty much performed as well as or better with the Twins than he ever has. (Obviously this minor injury clouds things a bit). Even with some regression, Santana is a very nice pitcher. And I believe Berrios will only continue to get better. Darvish is obviously a HUGE need and potential get. (Honestly, I'm not sure why he hasn't taken the best opportunity and contract and signed already), but some of the other options still move the needle for me, if the numbers make sense. But Darvish, (I hope), Santana and an improving Berrios does a lot for me. After that is Gibson, Mejia, and a few really nice prospects, (maybe not quite ready) plus the rehabbing May. Just not sure I buy in to another SP better than Berrios. But I could absolutely buy in to a flier/1 year deal at this point to offset any Santana issues. It would deepen the initial rotation and buy time for May and the kids. Who knows, might get lucky and have a flip asset.

I am not a modern day stat guy, though I DO somewhat understand them and their value. But WAR to me is always quite debatable. I am looking for my best chance to win on a daily basis. There is no way I can see any of the top FA pitchers providing only 2 more wins for someone like Hughes struggling in the rotation. Obviously, a very poor season or sudden resurgence from Hughes can change this. But said scenario would be almost impossible to predict. Still comes down to Darvish making a difference. And if not him, do any of the others stand out enough for a 3-4year deal vs a fuller and wait for May and the kids.

Initially, I was excited about Darvish but seriously doubted he'd actually end up in Minnesota, the closer we get to ST, the more I'm thinking the possibility is real. (And that possibility really should put a lot of the "Pohlad's are so cheap" stuff to bed-IMO) If you read between the lines and various opinions, as there is no definitive proof, it sure seems the Twins have the best offer on the table. Somewhere in the 5 years and $25-28M per area. Sure seems the Yankees and Dodgers are out for financial reasons now, and going forward. Darvish and his agent may not like their situation, but we are still talking 5 guaranteed years and a ton of money and security. I almost wonder if he and his team are thinking about a 1 year deal? Personally, as good as he is, I think that's a big risk. Read about an agent, I forget who, that is being outspoken for this market and is alluding to collusion. I'm sorry, but I find that laughable. With mid range payrolls being in the $150M range, and "power clubs" climbing in to the $190+ range, I just don't buy it. I think teams are just becoming a little smarter about some of these huge and long term deals we've seen the past few season's. I believe in Santana, even if he regressed a bit. There is a great article over at Puckettspond by Benjamin Chase that examines numbers while with the Twins, and where he has ranked in MLB during that time. It's interesting and impressive. I strongly believe Berrios is only going to get better. Mejia is young and talented. Gibson may or may not have turned a corner, but, he worked hard to change a lot of things. It seemed his approach/attitude on the mound was very different the second half of 2017. He's a bit of a wildcard, but I wouldn't get against him just yet. May IS a bit of a wildcard due to his injury, but the stuff and potential are there, he was looking really good before his injury. How quickly can he come back? And, of course there is a very reasonable chance that by the second half of 2018 we are seeing the early performances of Gonsalves, Romero, Littrell and maybe one or two more. This team really, really needs Darvish. A lesser, but still good arm, STILL moves the needle. But the way the market is shifting, it seems no-one is going to get the contract they want. It could indeed be a year for a 1 year deal opportunity. (Nothing says the Twins couldn't re-sign said pitcher). Arrieta may be risky, but the best choice, and possibly the most likely of the top arms to do so. After him, it's kind of a crap shoot. Cahill is only 29, but his first half of 2017 was the best he's looked in some time. Vargas had good years, and a great first half, but is 35. Did he tire the second half or pitch through injury? Or is just toast? I like the idea, I get the idea, and it could be smart and pay off. At least for the 1 year. I'm just not sure I like most of the options unless one of the "second tier" of Arrieta, Lynn or Cobb is willing to go this route.

I like Grossman overall, as a solid role player. If he could take his weird reverse splits the past 2 seasons and even them out, is like him a lot better. But I just don't see an improvement over him here. Then there is still the possibility of Vargas. Sano may have to DH some, allowing Escobar to play 3B. I just don't see a guy or need unless someone is available inexpensively to replace Grossman.

Sorry, maybe its a misprint, but how could Dozier, who i love, believe in, and would like to be re-signed, be worth $100M? $20-$25M per depending on years. What? Typo, right? Dozier is an iron man. All iron man are until they aren't. In any sport. But you can't predict those things. The Twins have a wonderful wealth of talented infielders coming up. But most, except for Gordon, are 2-3 years away. Dozier shows no signs of slowing down, and is an important part of this team both offensively, leadership wise, and is quality defensively. There is also a bit of a glut in MLB in regard to 2B available in FA and trade the next few years. This brings his cost down, I believe. With the continued development of Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, etc, trade and FA opportunities and eventual promotion, I still feel Dozier is a viable and important presence. What if he's signed for 4-5 years and plays the last 1-2 as a DH and super utility player? His value is about $14M per IMO. Even if you re-sign him for that, even if Mauernis also re-signed for 2 more years, which has been discussed, you still save money overall for payroll. Production, experience, leadership, potential flexibility, I'd love to sign him for about 4 years and $14M. Anything more, I trust in moving forward.