DocBauer

I would never say "don't get any more pitching". That would be absurd. But I do have to ask...if Santana were fully healthy, would this even be discussed at this time after the Odorizzi trade? As Brock mentioned, I'm fine with Mejia learning on the job a bit as the #5 man. He's LH, has some solid stuff, and he's an investment in both the near and long term future of the team. Probably comes down to Gibson and is the FO and staff confident he is the guy they saw the second half of 2017?

Couple points: 1) While it may seem like a low ball offer, certainly nobody else has offered enough for him to sign as of yet. 2) Could the offer have been a casual inquiry to feel Lynn and his representation out rather than a "here, take this" offer? 3) At some point, Lynn, Cobb and Arietta may have to accept lowering their initial demands and expectations, or consider a 1 year deal. I guess I'm just saying the FO is at least interested in another addition, but not sure we know enough about all the factors and conversations involved.

Despite all the young talent on this team, there could be a major hole at the top of the lineup next season if BOTH Mauer AND Dozier were gone. Not to mention a potential leadership void. Polanco would seem a perfect candidate to slide in to one of the spots, and perhaps Buxton as well. However, that potentially weakens the bottom of the order. Of course, the bottom of the order is easier to address. If Joe is the same player this season as he was last, I could easily see an extension of some sort. His lack of real power is not only mitigated by his defense, hitting and OB, but there is power and budding power from Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano and now Morrison. (Also some decent pop from the catcher spot, Polanco and Escobar if he were retained). What about Rooker? Well, he isn't here yet. With all due respect...and hope...for Gordon, Javier and Lewis, they also aren't here yet, (In reference to a potential loss of Dozier). There is absolute room on the roster, and payroll wise, for Mauer as well as Dozier the next couple of years. I know we still need additional pitching. But there is, and will be, financial room to add some, plus some pretty nice prospects getting close, plus future trade possibilities. As long as the finances aren't out of whack, I'd rather have too much talent to fit on my roster than trying to fill holes.

Surprised Littrell was assigned to AA. But if I recall correctly, this is more of a procedural action at this time and not necessarily his opening assignment.

I agree with sloopjont. (Phone isn't letting me "like" or quote). Unless we see Dozier side this season, which I doubt will happen, there is nothing to suggest sudden regression or sudden durability issues. I like Gordon and the other young infield prospects, but none of them are ready to replace Dozier immediately or the near future. Looking at history and the trends in the market, I'd say something along the lines of $15-16M per is very fair. 3 years? Yes. 4 years? Probably, especially if you can front load the first couple of years. 5 years? Nope. Not unless it was for far less and an option type year. Isn't the point to keep the best players for the best team? There is room for Dozier the next 3-4 years.

I was curious today about the ACE/#1 debate and decided to look at some numbers. I actually thought about a second thread with my "research" and decided it might get lost in the shuffle and decided it was better to post here. I chose to look at 5 very specific and well known players, and chose them for reasons that I will explain in a moment. With that being said, and keeping it basic without going in to advanced metrics, here is what I found for your consideration. Starting with career numbers: PITCHER ERA AVG WHIP K/9 BB/9 K/BB A 3.36 .221 1.17 8.54 2.73 3.04 B 4.02 .251 1.27 7.19 2.79 2.58 C 3.42 .219 1.18 11.04 3.32 3.33 D 3.76 .313 1.55 7.10 2.48 2.34 E 3.78 .248 1.20 8.94 2.07 3.81 The last three seasons: PITCHER ERA AVG WHIP K/9 BB/9 K/BB A 3.26 .219 1.09 9.08 2.52 3.68 B 3.55 .241 1.22 7.11 2.74 2.61 C 3.44 .228 1.18 11.09 2.88 3.86 D 4.87 .287 1.37 6.25 2.15 3.03 E 3.41 .234 1.11 9.99 2.09 4.78 Now the curtain is pulled aside for the reveal: PITCHER A: Verlander, 35yo B: Santana, 35yo C: Darvish, 31yo D: Zimmermann, 31yo E: Carrasco, 30yo Why these 5 in a SSS compared to the league? Santana is obvious. Really, the others are also. Verlander has been in the same league and division for years, and there was much debate as to whether or not the Twins should make a move before Houston did. (Note: after an outstanding 2016, his 2017 numbers were slightly skewed with a strong end of 2017 with Houston). The Darvish connection is too obvious to even comment on. Zimmermann was much debated 3 years ago concern being a target for the Twins, and again, is within the league and division the past 3 season's. (Note: His career began in the NO so career stats can be a bit misleading, and I don't believe anyone saw him as a true #1 starter). Carrasco is in the league, same division, and would rank as the Indian's #2, and #1 vs #2 status is something we've been debating. Conclusions? Despite some down years, and 35, Verlander has been a career stud. He had a bit of a re-surgance in 2016 and with Houston last year. The Twins may have dodged a bullet with Zimmermann. Sorry to say it, but the Twins may have blown it with Darvish! (Though there remains the debate if he truly ever wanted to come here). And last, but not least, and most prevalent to OUR favorite team, Santana shows a very steady career, and a very fine 3 year span, with our beloved Twins. His numbers also compare somewhat favorably to Carrasco, who is probably a #1 on most staffs, and would be with the Twins for certain. The debate is there, the floor is open. I think we really missed on Darvish, though there are a lot of unknowns. Santana is not a true #1, but he appears to be a real #2, and it would "appear" his injury is not serious. Berrios should improve this season. At least for 2018, we could conceivably have 2 #2 quality SP.

Molitor talks about the 4 man rotation initially, and maybe it plays out. Just not sure I see it as being practical, or necessary, unless you just don't think you have a 5th starter who is ready, or who you trust, to begin the year. Of course, with options, you could play musical chairs the first few weeks and keep an extra RP, then pull up someone for a spot start...lets just say Slegers...and then send him back down again and bring up another bullpen arm again. But the rather obvious elephant in the room is Hughes, and to a much lesser extent, Sanchez. Both would be great stories. But I have major doubts about Sanchez sticking. He actually requested AAA time last season to work in his game, and could opt that way again, but it also stakes away a spot from a prospect ready for Rochester. Hughes would be an even better story, but remains a real long shot. And this front office is not attached to his contract and sunk cost the way the previous administration was. This team is just so much better, long term, giving the 4th spot to Mejia! Now, he has to perform, of course. But there's some real talent to work with. Holding on to a questionable rehab vs a promising young starter just makes no sense. Now, if they are just determined to give Hughes some more time, then go with the 5 man staff. Could your pen get tired if he just blows up? Possibly. (Though there is the proverbial Rochester shuttle). But with a couple early days off here and there, and at least one inevitable postponment, that shouldn't be an issue. My best guess? Days off, speculated postponment, they will end up with a 5 man staff that includes Mejia and one of Hughes or Sanchez, probably Hughes. Gives him 3 or 4 starts for the FO to make a final decision. Wildcard? Mejia and Slegers both open in a 5 man staff until Santana comes back and Hughes and Sanchez are both gone, one way or another.

Not going to repeat everything I wrote in response in the original blog, but in short, I still believe winning in the season to get the opportunity for playoffs and a WS still comes down to the kveral6depth and quality of the TEAM, offense, defense, bullpen, solid and deep rotation. There's a lot of factors, and a lot of ways to win. And as I mentioned in the other thread, what if 2 really good, sound teams meet in a series and team A has the proverbial ACE, but a group of #3/4 starters behind him, but team B has 3 #2 quality SP? I think I'd go with team B. Now, I'm not saying the Twins have that at this time. But a healthy Santana and still improving Berrios gets you pretty close! Odorizzi is a wild card. He's better than he showed last season when hurt, and finished the season strong. Still only 27 there's reason for optimism with upside potential. And as Thrylos stated above, a half season of the new mechanics, new attitude and new "pitch mix" Gibson we saw last season could be a real deal maker. So the answer is you'd really, really lime to have that ACE to lead your staff, but you don't need it with the other pieces in place and a really nice, sound SP staff overall.

Always been a fan of Polanco ever since they signed him. Not exactly why, maybe it had something to do with being a young, speedy glove kid who was kvershadowed by other draft picks and international FA signings. But what really intrigued me was that when his bat started to come around, he was very solid and productive overall, despite no single, obvious characteristic. Two or three years he began hitting at the very top of the order before being moved down to the 3 spot because he was one of the best overall hitters on his team. That always spoke volumes to me about potential. Career milb numbers have him at a quad slash line of .286/.346/.411/.757. Nice all around numbers for a middle infielder, especially for a team in real need for infield talent, (At the time at least). He's still only 24 until July. 2017 was his first real, full time season as a regular in the field and lineup. I just don't think you can dismiss his grandfather's passing for his mid year flop. He had an OK start to the season, his awful stretch, and then a huge finish. Is he as good as his last couple of months? I'd say no. But he is going to hit, he is going to make contact, he is going to maintain a solid OB, and there is some legitimate pop and even HR power in his bat. He also runs well. Does he hit .270 or .290? Too early to tell. Either end of the spectrum is good. The bat control is there for consistency and OB. And I'd bet on 30 or so doubles and double digit HR. SS or 2B eventually, I'm really excited for his potential.

I think both arguments are valid. However, at the end of the day, all sports and successful teams therein, are built as a team. A strong defense goes a long way to assisting said ACE as well as every other pitcher on the staff. A strong offense produces runs, which ultimately decide the outcome, whether it be 1-0 or 11-10. A weak bullpen can do a lot to damage a team's overall record, and certainly their chances to win an important series of any sort. I'd offer up several Tiger teams of recent past. And the Royals are a clear example of the bullpen holding thing together, albeit their rotation certainly wasn't a bad one. Over a full season, or a series, there are a lot of ways to win, as well as lose. Stating the obvious? Perhaps so. But here's a caveat to the ACE arguement; two really good teams, one with an ACE and a couple solid starters and the second team lacking said ACE but having 3 rather legitimate #2 starters, I'd probably go with the second team. And that's where the Twins are now, 2018 at least. Let's say a healthy Santana is the same pitcher he was last season, or close to it. Berrios has the best pure stuff on the staff and should be better in 2018. Largely successful in previous years, young enough to still have upside, just how good can/will Odorizzi be? Of course, looking beyond 2018 is a different story, but similar tale via trade, FA, promotion and development of Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, etc. My final answer short, there is a major argument for that true #1 guy in your staff. But good defense, potent and versatile offense, (the Twins have both), and a quality bullpen, (they may have built one and have additional arms close), a team can absolutely win it all without that true ACE. But you need those 3 #2 guys you can march out to the mound.

With an OK to poor ST he'd be waived. With his new contacts and a quality ST, he's young enough and talented enough that a team hurting at DH or 1B, probably in rebuild/retool mode might offer up a decent A ball prospect and he'll be traded. Never thought he'd be the next Ortiz. Never thought he was given enough of a regular opportunity to develop, struggle, make adjustments, etc, especially on a couple of those bad teams. Nevertheless, he did show inconsistencies at AAA as well as with the Twins. At this point, a change in scenery might benefit him greatly. But you absolutely hold on to him for now.

Absolutely love this move and it came out of nowhere! Yes, the team still leans too much toward the left, but I don't think it's as big a negative as some believe. Sorry, don't have the stats in front of me, but the Twins weren't grossly overmatched against LH pitching last season from what I've read. Sano and Dozier obviously provide big RH bats. I'm still expecting more from Buxton overall, and I think we all feel the same there. I believe Garver will prove to be better than Giminez as the second catcher and a bat off the bench on occasion. And we all know RH pitching is still far and away the most dominant. Morrison provides another big bat in an already potent lineup that has yet to reach its full potential. (I want to say most runs scored in the ,league the second half of the year in 2017?) The lineup is deep and flexible, with multiple options. The bench may lack a thumper, but also holds versatility offensively and defensively. We didn't come away with a #1 SP, but the FO has made a lot of great moves to create a roster that is deep and potent, along with some nice adds to the pen, plus Odorizzi for the rotation. My only real quibble is I'm not enthused by the position players at Rochester. I think a mark was missed there.

100%! Grossman is nothing special, but he's a versatile bench/fill-in Or complimentary player. He's a bit of a late bloomer, it appears, with less than 1,400 AB and his best 2 seasons have been since joining the Twins. At 28 until the near the season's end, there is actually some upside still. Unless my memory is disjointed, and please correct me if I'm mistaken, didn't he hit better in 2016 from the RH side and better from the LH side in 2017? Regardless, he's been better as a RH batter for his career thus far, and OK from the LH side with solid OB ability and some pop. He can play an OK corner spot. You absolutely keep him over Granite to start the season if you keep 4 OF. You can bring Granite up, but you can't really bring Grossman back once gone. At bar is veteran insurance due to injury or Sano suspension. And that is all, no disrespect intended. The position player portion of the roster is now set, with Vargas probably gone, assuming no surprises. Hughes and Mejia take the last 2 rotation spots, barring a surprise that you just have to take a longer look at. (Sanchez suddenly looking completely different). The Rochester rotation is STACKED, even before May gets there as part of his rehab. Auditions and promotions will follow throughout the season. To me, the only real question is the final bullpen slot. It comes down to Duffey and Busentiz. (I'm calling Pressly an initial lock because his stuff is too good not to come north and hope for greater consistency). Duffey has 2 FB, 2 CB, and he has looked very good at times. Consistency is the key for him as well. Any kind of change only helps him, but isn't really necessary in a pen role. Busentiz may have even better stuff, but the SO weren't there, and he didn't look as good the last couple of weeks, IMO, as he did early. Not surprising for a rookie making his debut. We're I to make a guess, Duffey wins the battle initially, but it's close.

FWIW, I'm a big fan of Dozier. And I would offer him a 4 year deal right now somewhere in the $14-15M per year range. I would go as high as $16-17 average value, especially if I could front load the deal to maintain maximum flexibility. It's a win win for both parties. Said it before and will say it again, you could do this, even re-sign Mauer for around $10-12 for a season or two, and you'd still cut a couple million from their combined cost in 2018. Dozier's speed may diminish, but there is nothing pertinent to suggest a sudden loss of hit tool, OB or power over the next couple of seasons. Now, he might reject that, want to be a FA and hope for a rebound in the market. It's his right and he's earned it. He's been nothing but class as a Twin and answered the whole FA issue in an honest and classy manner. And he never said a word about NOT staying with the Twins. Personally, I think if he did reject my proposed offer, he may regret it. I just don't think he's going to get 5 years and $20M in this new age of analytics.

Different times and different FO, but the Twins have had a history of being aggressive in promoting young pitchers from AA, or barely hitting AAA. This would include guys like Neagle, Erickson and Radke. Past history I know, and just a few names, (and not speaking of various position pkayers), so the idea of being aggressive isn't foreign to the organization. I agree with the premise of taking lumps and learning. Haven't seen many kids come up and just see immediate success. There are adjustments to be made at every level achieved, and no question hitting the majors is by far the biggest. I absolutely agree it's a case by case scenario with each young player. And I also think some of this naturally sorts itself out. I don't like the way Slegers was handled late last season, sitting for so long before getting to pitch again. But then again, we were in a playoff hunt, hopefully he still learned some things. At some point, injury or ineffectiveness will allow Slegers and Gonsalves, maybe Romero, to get some time. And there is also September. Not going to get in to the #1 starter debate again. But I want the Twins to put the best rotation/staff together they can. While doing so, that doesn't mean these young guys don't get call ups, spot starts, etc. Usually turns out to be a pretty organic process. And I don't buy the "so many bullets" theory. Maybe there is some validity in regard to RP who can throw hard and only need 2 pitches. But a SP develops 3 or 4 pitches, including something off speed. They learn to set up hitters differently as they go through the lineup multiple times. A young SP can throw all the gas he wants, but will probably be unsuccessful just doing so. Yes, he can take lumps at the ML level, and yes he can learn from that. But aren't fewer lumps preferable because he's honed his pitches and knowledge of "How to pitch" as important as gas?

Cody, appreciate the post and idea. And it is probably relevant to the new FO and moves made. But in a way, it's also a bit of a tired subject. Almost like the Ortiz situation 2 decades later. (I stretch a little). Every team in baseball can claim a number of guys picked for little or nothing than turned out to be anywhere from good, quality pkayers to stars. Santana was a rule t player traded to the Twins. Believe he was traded for a pitcher, once a top draft choice, named White but can't remember for certain. Nor can I remember all the teams involved at this time. Shane Mack was a big success with the Twins, but a talented player who never found a home before. Brian Harper was a "who" before the Twins. I know that's a short list, and somewhat dated, but there have been others who have been quality players for the Twins, just as there have been others for other teams. Even some rather well known players who previously played for the Twins and found success elsewhere are out there. Portugal is one I always remember and laugh a bit about. He had a solid, OK career. But he also bounced somewhat before finding his footing. But somehow the Twins are to blame for letting him go? The new regime has come in, looked around, and decided to let some talented players leave believing that other options are more important, and more viable, long term. Some of the RP are a perfect example. I still believe that guys like Burdi or Chargois may get healthy one of these days, and make some kind of mark. And that will be a small thorn, to be sure. But despite stuff and potential, there also comes a time when you have to look at injury and real time on the mound and just decide you can't hold on to "maybe".

Sad to see Vargas probably gone as it still feels like there is untapped potential there, but I just don't see him fitting the roster at this point. I also echo Grossman as the 4th OF. Really like what little we've seen from Granite and all we've heard about him. But Grossman showed last season he wasn't the butcher in the OF he appeared to be at times in 2016. Further, with Rosario and Kepler solid in CF, we don't need another true backup there. And while Grossman's production hasn't been great, it also hasn't been poor either. If he could somehow even out his '16 and '17 splits he'd be even more valuable. And Granite will be sitting at Rochester whenever needed.

Honestly, at Rochester, I think Gordon is the only prospect in the infield, so Aybar there to begin the season wouldn't be bad. But really, he's only here for depth due to injury or suspension and shouldn't last long.

That works for me. No reason to believe Santana won't be back healthy. Berrios should continue to improve. Lynn should be stronger this year a full season removed from surgery. Peripherals and past history suggest Odorizzi is better than last season. Call me an optomist, but that's a better rotation than we began last season with for sure.

I also hope Sano stays at 3B for the next several years and wouldn't be in a hurry to move him. Still, it would seem Polanco, Gordon, Lewis and Javier could form a hell of an infield in the future.

Hard to believe, in high school, as the team's best player he wasn't placed at SS until his senior year. Just have a hell of another kid playing there previously. The athleticism and work ethic seem to be there. Sure hope they give him time to really learn the position and not rush him just because of his bat. Seems that most ML infielders continue to sharpen and home their skills once they reach The Show. He could end up being more of a work in process when he arrives.

Oh gee, if only he's healthy. But then again, that refrain is almost all ballplayers, in any sport, in any given year, isn't it? At least some degree. And no other previous injury or lingering issue that I'm immediately aware of. A change of scenery for a solid, experienced, and fairly young arm. A new pitching coach. A FO that embraces new age analytics who brought over an expert in such who is familiar with Ordozzi. I don't know if we end up with hard boiled, scrambled or over easy. But I see a lot of potential here as a quality #3.

I absolutely agree turning out to be a top bullpen arm is nothing to sneeze at! But what just kills me at times is how little faith some have in him as a still developing SP option and want to see him move to the pen now or hope he can do that late in 2018. I get that he could help the club initially in that role. Others have before. And some want to look at IP the last couple of seasons and a late fade to proclaim him as a pen option. He's only 23yo until late December 2018. He missed 2 FULL SEASONS due to injury and can sling it like he does! Developmentally, on the mound, he's a 21yo. We all hate the word "patience". In our daily lives, and also in regard to the Twins finding top rotation arms. But to be down on a 23yo still building up full season endurance and harnessing his change with the kind of dominance he's shown when healthy is just crazy. Let him continue to develop, start the season at Chattanooga maybe and promote him after a month or so. Let's just say he doesn't debut until 2019. You'd think a then 24yo with his arm arriving at some point that season would be slow or bad? Love the potential of this kid!

Nice write up! Odorizzi had the lowest batting AVG against in his career, but saw a dip in most all other numbers. Unless there is something we're not seeing, I'd say we bought low after a down year and would put faith in the season's proceeding. Additionally, only 27, soon 28, there is upside here as he continues to gain experience and learn his craft. I am NOT saying we found a sleeper #1 here, but a great majority of SP hit their peak in the late 20's through early 30's. They still have their "stuff" but learn more how to use it through experience. I think it's pretty safe to assume Berrios, with his "stuff", work ethic, bulldog mentality, will continue to get better. One has to hope and assume Santana will be back in May and be at least close to the pitcher he was in 2017. Why? Because despite this setback, he's had some of the best numbers of his career with the Twins, has been mostly durable in his career, and doesn't seem to have any kind of injury that would indicate his arm is ready to just fall off. Lastly, I forget the numbers right now so forgive me, but haven't recent articles here and elsewhere stated the Twins had guys like Turley, Tepesch, Melville, Wilk, Hughes and Santago start like 25% of games played? Now Colon was in there too, and really, he was solid and a godsend. You could argue Hughes gutted out a couple decent early season starts. But as much as we lament the lack of Darvish, a healthy Santana, improved Berrios, Odorizzi, Gibson (hopefully the same guy we saw for half a season), an improved Mejia, a return of a quality arm in May, prospects on the rise, and a flier or two in Hughes and Sanchez, we still look better and deeper in available arms and "possibilities" than we did this time a year ago. Toss in an improved bullpen with several young arms who showed last year and are chomping at the bit to audition again, the overall talent and depth is better than the beginning of 2017.

I am an eternal optimist by nature. Usually works out, but also been burned a few times. (Still rather be that than a pessimist). A couple things really fill me with hope for Gibson going forward though: 1] He changed everything from his training regime to tweaks in his delivery and preparation to some of his mechanics. That has to take some time to see results. (His second half). 2] He was bounced to the minors a couple times. He was "politely" chastised, publicly, on the mound in a game against Seattle where he was spotted a big lead. He seemed to come back up, and spoke about, a different attitude. 3] His second half numbers, as talked about here, might be a half season, but I'm not sure they can be called SSS considering past flashes and the other points made here. I'm actually really excited, with some guarded optimism, to what and who he is this season.