DocBauer

Still a little crazy the Twins pick up a successful veteran BP pitcher with experience for a couple low level prospects and our 29-30th ranked prospect and pick up a new 29-30th ranked prospect.

On the road, in the NL with, without Cruz. Meh. This team is good enough to win. And they did, winning 2 of 3. Let's not forget that folks. You consistently win 2 of 3, you have a tremdous team/record! Please don't misunderstand, I'm not happy with today, just some perspective. We want to bring last night in to today? OK. Personally, I would have sent Berrios out for the 8th with his performance and low pitch count. Potentially, Poppen has a great 9th, instead of 8th, and Berrios is fine with 90 pitches thrown. We still won. Blast Rocco all you want, but what he did has clearly done in other games, is try to keep his pitchers strong for late season and the post season. Same as he's done for his positional players, postponing and resting and trying to keep everyone healthy, productive and ready to go. I think Berrios could have and should have gone one more inning, but it is what it was. I have loved most of what Baldelli has done all season, but I DO disagree with using Dyson this afternoon. The arguement can be made, has been made, that he is a pro and should be used to travel, etc. BUT...and I don't know...is he married? Does he have kids? In 24 hours you have been traded, even if you are accepting and excited, to repack, get on a flight, call your family, start implementing plans, grab your bags and a ride, report to the stadium/hotel, whatever, meet your manager, pitching coach, teammates and catcher, and then go out and try to throw. No matter how much of a professional you are, that's a lot to deal with in 24hrs! May had a couple rough outings recently. So what? It hapoens! He was fresh and ready. There were other options. Dyson should have been allowed to at least settle in for a day and meet the staff and his team and be ready for the KC series. What would you expect Dyson to say as a professional and a competitor? "No. I'm not ready today."? Sorry Rocco. Love you. But this one is on you. (Bet he knows that).

Overall, a pair of nice moves and the team is better today than it was. I would have preferred someone a notch above Dyson, but he was a fine addition. The fact they didn't make a move for a rental LH is a bit puzzling. Thinking they like Thorpe and Smeltzer quite a bit and will roll with them. Except for Stroman and Greinke, no real big action at all. Kind of a weird deadline this season.

Right now, I am so confused. I need time to sort this all out. The Wets..,errr..,Mets, make a trade for Stoman because they will now go on a tear to compete, or flip him to another team who was already interested and will somehow/someway pay more more for Stroman than before..? Or they will be more likely to deal Syndergard now than before despite his injury history and poor 2019 ERA, (just an example) because they are so deep? The Indians trade their top SP for a couple of bats but weaken their rotation? This crap is crazy! And some want to question why the Twins FO are rubbing their hands together?

Jeremy, I think your scenarios are realistic and outstanding. I'm not sold on a 4th OF, but I completely get it. And it works if you remove Schoop from the roster equation. I would say 2 changes may be in order; Rooker might be a more welcome option than Larnachm but that would be up to Texas, and I think KC would require a slightly better arm/player regardless of salary relief. They'd want someone they felt had a better percentage chance to contribute to their re-build. IF...and it's a big if IMO, tne Twins could acquire a quality SP for depth and 2020, a 6 man rotation could be implemented in a couple ways. A] Standard 6 man rotation, but your pen could be a little short. B] Run a standard 5 man rotation, but rotate 2 or 3 guys in and out on a weekly basis with "bullpens" being in a game situation. C] Similar to "B" but rotate piggybacking a game a week with a 5 IP SP and a 4 IP secondary pitcher. All that being said, I would trust the rotation I have, keep my "top prospect list" as you stated and make a quality 2-3 prospect trade from everyone else available for a top RP who is controllable beyond this season. My window is open and I don't want a collection of rentals. Iglesias from the Reds really jumps out at me. If I bet stymied at every turn from crazy demands, Kennedy is my fallback. And I don't mean that to demean Kennedy. I think he could be a steal. Even though I love Thorpe, and think be could play a BP role to finish the year, I'd rather have him start, provide SP depth with Smeltzer, and ride the Rochester shuttle and grab Watson as a rental from the Giants. In the end, I only trade approximately 4 prospects, all outside my top 6, and acquire a top RP with another season, at least, available, and a veteran LHRP to play a role. These 2, and what I have on hand, gives me a much improved pen, and 2 months to audition and play the shuttle game until the playoffs arrive and I have to set my roster. I also have Smeltzer and Thorpe providing depth in various capacities. My pen is much, much better than it was, and is now much deeper with the emergence of some young arms. My milb depth is intact, as is most...if not all...of my top 10 list.

First of all, great post! Really wish this was on the front page. Not piling at anyone, but remember not so long ago when Rosario was just too wild, Polanco couldn't play short, Kepler was only a 4th OF, etc, etc. And without Cruz, the team's lineup averages just under 27yo! That is crazy! Of course, Cruz will be back next season. Personally, I wish/hope the market is slow for Castro and he would come back for another couple years on a reduced deal. Unless hope and fantasy meet, there are no top of the order difference maker SP options available at the moment. Unless you want to gift wrap some crazy package of prospects and vastly overpay. And after that there is nobody available who clearly offers anything better than what the Twins have on hand. And what they have on hand is awfully good. The problems with the pen have been overblown. You don't have the record/season the Twins have with a dumpster fire bullpen. What did you say, if they only played teams with a .500 record or better they would win 88 games? Crazy! And we have some guys who are stepping up and looking like real pen options for the future, but even though some will continue to help, and make the post season roster, it's too late to really count on most of them for now. Think about the tough games against the Yankees this year. Only 6 games, but if we had another couple of arms we could count on, we very likely split, if not win the series. This team has an honest chance in 2019 with a couple solid pen additions. A real and honest chance. And they have the milb depth to make at least one more high quality move. But as good as this team is, as young and talented as it is, the window is not only open, but it could be wide open for another 4-5 years if we can keep the bulk of this roster together. While there are very good prospects lower in the system, there is a very nice collection of arms and position players at Rochester and Pensacola who could/can/have started to contribute. I like our first move. We need another acquisition even better. But I agree that I just wouldn't mortgage anything for 2019 when this team is so good and has so much potential. There are vast differences between doing nothing, making a couple smart moves, and giving up 4-6 top 20/30 prospects to go all in for one season.

And I don't disagree with you in principal or final results. But I was thinking not only roster flexibility, but also inter league and potential WS situations. But I wouldn't trade him for any of the options I had in mind at this point.

Wait, so in addition to math in some posts, we now have science too??? Argghh! Seriously, very neat piece and very informative. I think he was a great addition. Now...one more please.

He wasn't my first choice, I admit, because there were a couple OF available like Brantley and McCutchen that could legitimately play defense for greater roster flexibility. But when signed, I was very happy for potential production as well as experience and leadership/presence. His option for 2020 is NOT an option!

I would be uber focused on another RP and call it a day at this point. I know a lot of people don't want to hear that, but not only is it the biggest need, but the market itself is showing teams are either not selling, or being crazy in their demands. The Mets are just...IDK....the Mets. Despite looking like a dumpster fire losing team they have acquired the first big name viable arm on the market. Are they crazy like a fox with a plan nobody can see, or are they just crazy? We can talk all day long about the Twins rotation. And we can point to successes and failures, highs and lows, etc. (Guys have good and bad streaks. Its a long season)! And I know playoff baseball can be different than the season. But tbe truth is the Twins not only have tbe best rotation they have had in YEARS, but they also have one of the deepest, most productive rotations available. Pitching still wins games. But in this new era, we have also seen where a deep and quality pen can trump a rotation at times. This team needs a stud arm for the pen to go along with Rogers, Romo, and what we have on hand. The Twins still have 2 months to sort through their pen and make final decisions on who and what sticks for the playoffs. At least one SP will slide to the pen that happens. It also happens, later than I wished it would have happened, we have some arms who are starting to look ready.

I have deliberately stayed out of the Syndergard thread because it seemed to take on speculative thread of its own. But something I posted and asked about a couple days ago, and a few others have echoed my initial question, is why the obsession with him? The reality is he only 26, 27 in August I believe, and has an amazing arm that tantalizes, with big SO numbers. Reality also shows he has only hit 180IP once, thus far, with 154IP being his 2nd best season. This year, his ERA, in the NO, is above 4. (I know ERA is questionable as a statistic). It seems to me any trade for him is based on future potential. He could absolutely explode for a 4-6yr run as a top of the rotation stud! (Even though his controllable years are obviously far short of that). He could also continue to miss time and be good when available and never be what is hoped for. I get the infatuation, and I'd love to have him. But is a package of 4 top 20 prospects worth the questionable side? And I think that is what the Twins FO and most teams are asking themselves right now.

Granted this thread is about Kirilloff, but right now, it's almost impossible not to include Lewis in any discussion as they are intertwined in many ways as we approach the deadline. It doesn't matter, for discussion purposes, that we don't WANT to trade either one. For purpose of discussion...NOW, or even next off season...ONE of these guys would have to be included in a major deal for a front of the line SP. Just being realistic, BOTH are available if the right deal is in place. Period. And either would not decimate the system, or the future of the franchise. Again, period. 1] Kiriloff: I believe he is a special bat. He reminds me of Larry Walker and our own Max Kepler, though probably a little less speed than Kepler, especially if he continues to muscle up. Blocked? Hardly! Even if the Twins keep their OF intact for the next 4-5yrs, and I hope they do, there isn't room for Kirilloff to play 1B as well as some OF? I kinda laugh when I read things about how a corner OF or 1B are a dime a dozen. Maybe they are if you just want someone league average. The Twins were both lucky and smart with Cron. However, the arguement can be fairly made they could be smart and lucky again. Further, while I feel Kirilloff could be special, there remains Rooker and Larnach available in the pipeline, as well as an eventual move of Sano to 1B. [More on that coming]. 2] Lewis: This kid is super talented, and probably more highly regard in some ways as he has legitimate SS potential. He has all the tools in the world to be a legitimate difference maker. (I also laugh when a stud athlete at 20yr old is "uncertain" to remain at SS). Polanco has become, is becoming, everything I hoped and thought he would be. And he is still developing! Some, in the past, have blasted me about the idea of Lewis, with all his talent and a good arm, about playing 3B. I've been told that would be a "waste" of his talent. How? How could it EVER be a waste to have a supreme talent at ANY position on the field and in your lineup? However: Polanco, again, is a young and controlled stud who will only get better. We may have already found our next 2B in Arreaz. Despite being a bit of an enigma, Wander has, probably, as much talent and potential as either Polanco or Lewis. And while their are differing opinions on Sano at 3B, (I like him there), there is no immediate need to replace him. So you tell me, because I don't have the answer, which of these 2 are "expendable" if the right deal is available?

Assuming he would waive his no trade just because he's like to, wants a better parking spot, an extra bag of peanuts on flights, whatever, I'd be fine to add him. However, and I think the FO would tell you the same thing, such amdwal would be contingent on Arizona still picking up 30-40% of the deal. Yes, the Twins can afford the whole $30M. Yes, it would require an extra player in the deal, or a slight bump in quality of said prospects in the deal involved. And yes, it's true they are on the hook for the next 2 swasons for payrolls right in line, or less, than this current year. But the FO would undoubtedly like a little more financial flexibility. After all, they may be looking at extensions, other adds, and we still need another couple of SP for next season more than likely.

Not to nit-pick, but Over should have been in the headline as well. Three outstanding performances. A good month plus until the end of the milb season. If Over can stay healthy the rest of the way, I wonder where he may rank on prospect lists.

Absolutely want and need a power arm better than this. But what's not to like about this deal on it's own merit??? Diaz is solid, probably not great, rule 5 eligible, stuck behind a couple higher ranked prospects. Romo is on fire since May, having a solid year, has had a quality career with fine SO and SO/BB numbers and brings a great deal of post season experience to a bullpen that has how much? Oh yeah, none. And we get an A ball pitcher drafted just last season in the 5th round? Unless Diaz turns out to be a stud, this is a real win.

Yes, a great article! And thank you Parker for your additions. 1] I know what certain statistics say and the opinions of others. But while I saw some bad plays last season, I saw a solid receiver overall with potential, and caught some very good games despite being put in a tough position. He wasn't supposed to be the starter last year. 2] Garver, and the Twins in general, missed the experience of Castro last season. Not a great hitter, not the best defender un the world, he is experienced and solid and I liked his signing 2 yrs ago. 3] I like having Castro back. I'd like him to return next season, at a lower salary, but I doubt it happens. It is a tremendous luxury to have these 2 guys to share the load. And I dont doubt part of their success is because they are sharing that load. But I do object to a 50/50 split, if that is indeed the projection ahead. With all due respect to Castro, Garver is the better and more dangerous player. I'd think he should be more than capable of catching a few more games.

I know this thread is about the rotation, but I am going to re-iterate the absolute need for a pair of RP. That HAS to be the priority! I like our rotation. I like it a lot. Some talk about Perez having his bad streak, but he's also looked much, much better his last few starts. Odorizzi has now been in a funk. It happens! More than likely, he is going to come out of it soon. Pineda has done about everything I hoped and expected. Does Stroman, and others mentioned, actually provide a lift? Because unless you are looking to add a rotation piece to be controllable next season, I just don't know that I see any actual improvement being made. There has obviously been a lot of debate about Syndergaard. I am honestly asking...is he an improvement??? He's only hit 180IP one time. His next highest total is 154IP. His ERA...not the biggest determining factor I know...is over 4 this year while being in the NL. He is young enough that i think you are still buying potential, but just not sure I'm actually seeing a difference maker at this point. Certainly not worth the reported asking price. If I'm wrong, please let me know.

Interesting and outstanding, if a bit speculative. Of course, projection or not, kind of bard to compare anyone to Puckett at this point, and for obvious reasons. Despite not being a GREAT player, it helps remind how good of a player Span was, especially with the Twins. I have often referenced Hunter and Buxton in various threads. Hunter didn't have the media blitz or fanfare in his day, but their paths are eerily similar. Hunter didn't exactly explode on the scene, and got sent down a couple of times before figuring it out for good. We can debate how Buxton was handled last season, but in retrospect, doesn't it appear things were done right? I am so frustrated with lack of perspective and patience in regard to Byron. Two years ago, Rosario was a wild card who might never reach his potential. I argued patience and stated if I were a team wanting to trade with the Twins, he would be my #1 target. This past off season, Kepler was a 4th OF in many people's mind and Polanco was a decent to good hitter who couldn't play ML SS. Polanco, deservedly so, was the starting SS in the All Star game and Kepler should have been there. Then Sano should be traded for a hope and a prayer because he would obviously never amount to anything. And suddenly, right before our eyes, all the potential and talent we saw in Sano is starting to come to fruition. All this incredible angst about, mostly, 25yo players not being the next so and so. And this brings us back to Buxton. So he wasn't the immediate Mays, Griffey Jr. So What? Has anyone really spent the time to look beyond his rankings and milb numbers to see how quickly he was promoted despite games missed due to various injures? And here we are now, healthy, bulked up, determined, more experienced, Twins staff even taking steps to play deeper to avoid certain potential injury, seeing what be may yet become. And he is having a borderline breakthrough season. I say borderline because the best is yet to come. Patience, as I have often said, can be an ugly word. But we are just beginning to see what he can become, like his fellow young teammates.

This was awesome! Mike, your memory is scary good! How do you do it? I have to vote game 7 of the '87 series just because. I mean, our beloved Twins actually won the darn thing!! Finally!! Game 7 and Jack's performance is #2 only because of my vote for #1. And yes, he is absolutely a HOFer!! Not on your list, deservedly, but the entire series against the Tigers in '87 is special because we weren't supposed to win, but did, with defense and pitching and hustle. (I still remember Randy Bush making a difference and stealing 2nd at a crucial point). And while I didn't get to watch the WS with my dad, we did get to watch most of the Detroit series together and had real hope. Full confession, I shed real tears when we won in '87. So that remains #1 on my list.

I think everyone does better when allowed to play on a regular basis. TO was great at that and once made a comment, paraphrasing now, "how can I expect someone to come off the bench to perform or PH if they haven't been playing on a regular basis". I think Gardy and Molitor were pretty good at this philosophy as well. The big difference with Rocco, IMO, is he isn't stagnant with roles for players. And I think this goes back to the FO as well. As weird as it sounds, it's a Little League approach at the ML level. You are a ballplayer. So be one. That's not to say everyone can pull it off. I think we all still shudder at remembrance of Sano in the OF. Not everyone can pull it off. Marwin was brought in for a very specific reason, and he has been all we could have hoped for. But like Brian has stated before, you can also develop your own super utility players. There is a power difference, but Adrianza reminds me much of Escobar. A solid milb player, solid numbers, just waiting for opportunity for continued growth and development. A chance. Adrianza was not great the last 2 years, but solid and productive. Be bad a great ST this year and then a horrendous start to the season. But Rocco saw something. And then look what happened. Arraez has potential, but is a 2B only. Except, he's not just that and is proving that. Some of us love Astudillo and believe in him, some don't. I get it. Some say his production last season was an illusion as it was late in the season. And they want to point to some bad stretches this year. Except, he hit before be got injured. He didn't look good after brought back. Then be raked at AAA, looked good again, then got hurt again. It still comes back to the player. But Rocco is very smart and very forward thinking. He seems to understand the limitations of his players, but also sees their potential.

Preferencing my comments by saying I am a fan and believer in Thorpe, and always have been. I believe he could be the Twins 5th SP at some point next season, depending on how things ultimately shake out. And I admit to a man crush on Smeltzer. I dont think the Dodgers knew what they had, but the Twins sure do. I'd like both of them to continue to be SP options. But this year, and going forward, you want the best arms on your club you can have! I actually really like the dual trade proposal with KC. Makes an awful lot of sense. I am not opposed to bringing in a LH, but I feel what this team needs is a pair of RHRP we can count on. The market is so slow, and so strange right now, I'm just not convinced we are going to see the major moves some speculate and wish for. I think, if it happens, it will be in the last 48hrs. I'd pick up 40-50% of Kennedy's contract. KC gets salary relief and a couple of decent prospects outside our top 10, IMO. I would think something like Romero or Alcala and a young OF, (more than a few options), would get it done. And that might even be an overpay. And I honestly don't know who the second RH would be, as there are so many viable options mentioned. Maybe, as Tom mentioned, someone like Mychal Givens or Scott Oberg, this year's version of Ryan Pressly. But I'm still betting on someone on the "2nd level" list who is controllable and who the FO likes. For the most part, the FO seems to have a pretty good eye for what/who they like. Back to the beginning comments I made, I'd roll with Thorpe and/or Smeltzer as my 2nd LH option. Either or both could return to starting next season. You pick up some salary, trade 4 guys from the system, all of which are probably out of the top 10, and bring in a pair of RHRP that will each be back for 2020 at least. Your pen: Rogers Kennedy TBD trade May Harper Duffey Littell Thorpe/Smeltzer And the beauty is you still have guys like Poppen and Stashak to roll up and down with Duffey and Littell and Thorpe/Smeltzer for those last couple of spots playing the option game. You might even be able to run with a 7 man pen to keep an extra position player when everyone is healthy. The Twins have one of the best and deepest rotations in MLB. I remain unconvinced any major SP is going to be available. In fact, I think Strohman may be the only one. And while he is nice, would he really be an upgrade??? Hey, if a TOP RP is indeed available because someone decides to punt on 2019, that's great. But in this scenario, you pick up some salary, (which you can afford), deepen and improve the pen with 2020 in mind, ride the Rochester shuttle for the last couple of spots with some nice looking young arms, and still keep your top 10 prospect list intact for next season, the offseason, or in case a special SP is actually made available NOW.

Considering how well he has done, and looking at some of the guys who have been in the rotation at Rochester this season, I'm a little confused Dobnak has been bouncing up and down. I'd think he's up to stay this time.

Marwin is the poster boy for a super utility player with a quality bat, and deservedly so. While Adrianza is not quite at his level...though with a little more power he might be...he might be referred to also as a super utility player. For that matter, while it's still early in his career, Arreaz could be thought of the same way. He's played 4 spots, done just fine, and can obviously swing the bat. While he may end up being a starting 2B in the near future, he fits the description at the moment as well. And while he can't play SS and there are varrying opinions on his bat and potential, Astudillo could also be claimed as a super utility type. Have to really like how this roster is constructed!

Thank you, Patrick, for a great article! And thank you, Tom, for these statistics. Points: 1] I was as upset as anyone the FO didn't bring in at least 1 big pen arm. Smart or lucky...I'm going with smart...they did the right thing initially. 2] Over a 6 month season, there will be highs and lows. If not, 110-120 win seasons would be a norm. You win and lose with all facets of the game: offense, defense, starting pitching and relief pitching. You don't have one of the best records in all of baseball near the end of July, even with a recent rough patch, with 1 or 2 of those areas being terribly insufficient. 3] The statistics above show that the Twins protection of leads from the 6th inning on are above league average. And to this point, they have lost one...ONE...game in the 9th inning. This is not because the offense has pounded every team in to submission. In fact, the past few weeks, it's been quite the opposite. For the second half, for crunch time, for playoff time, the pen needs an arm or two. The FO has handled the pen about as perfect as it could be handled to this point. And it has absolutely not been the dumpster fire some want to make it out to be. Necessity is meeting opportunity here as the deadline approaches. Will the FO continue to be smart?

Great to see Lewis continue to do well. We just have to be honest and realize there is nothing wrong with him. He reached A+ as a 19yo, the league made adjustments, he was slowed by injury, and now he's healthy and adapting. How sad is it that I want to give Romero and honorary pitcher of the day for 2 nice IP out of the pen?