DocBauer

Also wanted to condense this post, but could not. Too many good points. Pete Ricketts, CEO/Owner of the Cubs was asked about a general lack of activity with the Cubs this current off season. In general brief, he stated a couple moves the team has made but felt their roster was pretty much set, they had averaged 90+ wins the last few seasons, were already amongst the highest payroll teams in MLB, were looking for better season's from guys who had disappointing season's, and looking at their roster, where would you actually find a better player to bring in? Now, some of that is hyperbole, of course. You could ALWAYS find someone better for a certain spot, etc. And not only will the Twins probably never be able to equal the payroll of the Cubs, but some of his points could apply to our Twins. Just as you referenced the Cubs, the Astros, etc. There needs to be a central core to any team, including our beloved Twins. Coming off a fun, competitive 2017 season, ownership produced a record payroll for 2018 that simply didn't work out. As I stated earlier, they were 16th in payroll, about $10M short of the mean, but a huge jump from 2017. We will never be able to compete with certain major markets for a $200M payroll. But could we be in the upper half/third as we have been before? I believe so. But to spend for the sake of spending doesn't always work. We found that out in 2018, despite being heralded as a team that made a lot of moves that seemed smart. FWIW, the team just above us in 2018 payroll was the Indians. If you made a list of everything that went right for the Twins in 2018, and a list of everything that went wrong, I think you'd find the "wrong" side wins hands down. That doesn't mean be depressed and blow things up. It means what they have done: a new manager and staff, working with the talent on hand and getting them better, making some smart moves for 2019 and letting them play out. My gut reaction is ownership and the FO are optimistic about what is on hand and want to develop this core and then move forward with a big trade or FA signing. The last thing they want is for Sano, Buxton, Kepler, etc, to wash out and begin again. That doesn't excuse them from building depth of talent overall. But you also have to play the cards you have in hand. With Rocco in charge, and his new staff, and a new season, they are looking to build that core and know the hand they have. But this kind of game has 25 cards in your hand, and a reserve deck available. You can discard appropriately. Nothing wrong with adding another couple nice aces or face cards to your hand.

I wanted to condense this down for space saving sake, but couldn't do so. All wonderful and salient points. And while I agree with you and "liked" your post, I have to offer a couple counterpoints, just to be fair. For the sake or simple argument, and round numbers, let's say your favorite team, the Twins in this case, have a payroll in year X of $100M but could have spent $110M. In theory, that would be a profit/excess of an additional $10M that you would argue could be carried over to the next year. However: A] That $10M may be spent on improvements for the Ft Myers complex, which they continue to do. Or partially spent on mutually agreed upon improvements at various milb facilities, which they have also done. Or used to further develop facilities throughout Central American academies and other locations, etc, ditto. Or even improvements to Target Field on their own dime, which again, they have done. B] Said carry over of the proposed $10M to next season seems like a good idea to add another quality player or two via trade or via FA. But then there are normal team controlled raises, and arbitration and escalators for a contract in place. Then we look at extensions for a top young player or two, not to mention someone you really want to keep who is entering his potential FA season. I am no kind of financial expert. And I don't excuse any company, much less my favorite ballclub, for putting out an inferior product for the sake of cheap profits at my expense. Just saying a "rollover" may not be as easy to define.

Agreed 100% on a great last paragraph. At the end of the day, life is just too complicated and busy for me to know all the various ins and outs of various collective agreements. But even being a different sport, and one with a smaller roster, wouldn't baseball be better off if they could mkre closely resemble the NFL model? MLB, partially due to the union as well, may never have anything resembling a true salary cap, though threshold penalties do provide at least a soft cap, but wouldn't certain minimums help? Again, I don't even pretend to know how all the mega million numbers work, but wouldn't the sport also be a lot healthier, and help the sport maintain, if not grow, if there was a more equal distribution of revenue amongst the entire league? Like all sports, the NFL is cyclical. But with a more even minimum and maximum floor, smart coaching and player choices/development truly make the difference for teams who flounder, teams who rebound quickly, and teams who have sustained success.

Ted, I enjoy all of your various posts and opinions. And this is no exception. Personally, I don't believe the team is done yet. And I don't mean a couple fliers and AAA depth. FA or trade, I'm still expecting a BP addition we all agree is needed. I still look at the overall roster and see only Adrianza, who I actually like, and nobody else. I am half expecting, and half hoping, there is an addition there as well. I am NOT expecting a SP signjng6or trade to take place. I truly believe the team is looking at internal opportunity for their starting staff, as well as movements forward from Sano, Buxton, Kepler, etc, to see that the "core" is truly in place to further augment the team as a whole. That being said, there is NOTHING WRONG with building your team for success and depth, hence my belief/hope that there are a couple more move yet to take place. But in regard to payroll itself, and let me state I am neither admonishing nor defending ownership, I think perspective is lost at times in regard to said payroll on a year to year basis. There have been a lot of numbers and opinions tossed out as of late, especially in the Cody Allen thread. And I almost posted the following there, but it seems more appropriate here. In 2010, the Twins had a payroll of $97.5M which ranked 10th in all of MLB. The mean was $84.4M. They won 94 games and appeared hopeful for 2011. In 2011, the Twins payroll jumped to $112.7M, ranking 9th in all MLB. The mean that season was $87M. In 2017 the Twins were 23rd in payroll at $94.3M, well below the mean of $131.7M. In 2018, coming off a competitive season and a WC appearance, the Twins boosted payroll all the way up to $129.6M, good for 16th place, but below the mean of $136.6M. This is NOT an argument that ownership does, or does not spend enough, or too little. Merely an attempt to show balance. I don't think any of us truly know the revenue streams of the Twins or any team for that matter. Final numbers right or wrong, always seem to be as guarded as the Colonel's or Coke's secret recipes. The Minnesota market is not near the bottom half, but their have been various reports over the years that actual revenue, (radio and TV deals and the such), place the Twins lower than their market size. Again, we just don't know all the finite number details. What we HAVE seen, is that in the past several years, even with 2 very different FO in charge, when it has appears the team bad a chance to compete, ownership has been willing to step up payroll to build and augment the roster to do so. We can argue all day about what they COULD spend, of course. But I think various opinions about ownership not caring, or being cheap, needs to be tempered with what has actually taken place.

Unless there truly is something amiss physically, this is a no-brainer that most of has have been clamoring to happen for weeks now. All but the truly elite relievers, and often them as well, have a down season from time to time. It's the nature of the game and being human. Unless told otherwise, he is healthy and only 30 in a roster category in which many guys perform strongly until mid to even late 30's. I would take the 1 yr deal but don't like it. (Especially for $14M). This is the perfect time in invest in a 2-3yr deal, or some sort of 2+ option. There is need, opportunity, fit and familiarity on both sides. If this doesn't get done, then something really strange is going on.

Agree with the pen addition. Not as concerned with an infielder that hits LH or switches, just an option for depth and versatility. What happens if someone goes down or just stinks? I like Adrianza, just not as an extended option. There ARE infield options out there, even on the cheap, to provide depth, versatility, a bat and some production, even if their last name is not Gonzalez. And while I would LOVE the FO to just GO FOR IT with Marwin, there are other interesting options. Biggest bite is, I hate an 8 man pen and a short bench, but think we are headed that way. Hope I am wrong. I think your LHSP is Mejia and Gonsalves and Thorpe coming up.

I think a healthy Castro helps this team in a variety of ways. But I am not convinced he starts. Garver showed defensive improvement and offers quality offense. He's also a part of the future.

I have to echo this! A few weeks back. Falvey was on local radio with Judd in the TC and the question/comment posed to him was the potential of a 10-12 game swing upward in 2019 if a few things broke right. Falvey agreed, of course. But the central point of the question was how much went wrong in 2018. No need to re-hash all of that. But I am in agreement with that assessment, and Brock here. I also agree with a "trickle down" effect in the pen if you add one more quality arm. To me, the obvious choice is Allen. You create depth, and you gain experience. Now Reed, who finished well, does not have to be the closer. Nor does May. Nor does anyone else from Parker on down. You are building depth. Good guys, a deep bullpen, is what you want. Not relying on just a few arms, or using them in obvious loss situations as Molitor did too often. (As if hoping for a comeback win). And the season is long and you need depth. Give me what we have, add one more veteran guy like Allen, and this bullpen, talent, depth, numbers, etc, I feel SO MUCH BETTER. Everything that went wrong last season, 23/24+ 1 run losses, and a better pen to reverse that horrible number...yea...I see a potential 90ish win team.

Ash and Nick pretty much answered, but my take is simple. If the guy rebounds and looks surprisingly good, you've added another solid option for the rotation and you've added depth, depth to the pen where Mejia and Romero could both help. If said guy doesn't flash, he goes to Rochester to continue to work while off the 40 man. He can still be released or opt out. If, at whatever point, said signee looks good, there is the option to trade him, or anyone else, to bring in another asset or two. All you are doing is bringing in a flier to see if you get lucky and build depth and possibilities.

Barring a trade for an absolute, top of the rotation arm...which is not going to happen at this point...I am 100% all in on who we have, auditioning the kids for now and 2020, etc. But why on earth would you turn down a veteran arm on a MILB deal with no guarantees and no 40 man spot just to see if you get lucky?

Right with you there on Thorpe. Everything from his early performance to post injury/illness performance and pure stuff tells me he is for real. But if his debut stinks, do we proclaim he was over-hyped? Remember, Gibson had a bad debut. Then he had 2 really solid seasons on bad teams. Then he really found himself after a season and a half. Berrios really struggled on his initiation to MLB and now looks like a true #1-2 with time. Gonsalves has done nothing but adapt and produce at every level. He even adapted and produced his last few "primary starts" in 2018. He is long, lanky, LH, and has struggled with repeated delivery at times. He has also shown adaptability and pitchability at every level. So a so-so ROOKIE appearance at the ML level has convinced some he doesn't have the stuff to make it? My goodness, can't we just let time, experience and new pitching coach Johnson just work through some things before we just say he can't make it? Ridiculous to dismiss Gonsalves at this point after a brief so-so debu6 simply because he doesn't have some singular dominating pitch. Tweaks and experience along with opportunity, it's not hard to see Gonsalves, Thorpe and Berrios as part of the 2020 staff along with Romero and Mejia, even though a pen option remains.

Very salient points all the way around! My only disagreement is your comment on 2-3yrs before he steps to the forefront. He has learned and made adjustments at every level he has been at. Yes, there have been hiccups, and the BB for a time last season was alarming. But what did he do yet again? He made adjustments and found himself. I often find it amusing when a pitching prospect reaches the ML level, like Berrios as an example, and struggles initially, and some claim he's automatically a bust of some sort. I think Gonsalves will be up in 2019, will improve, and could be a fixture by 2020. That being said, I honestly think Thorpe is an even better option. Here's hoping both are part of the 2020 roation.

As stated, just no way to predict his defense definitively at this point, in A+ and only 19. All the tools seem to be there. I agree with the "unorthodox" look. He just looks "longer" than a typical SS and his throwing motion looks a little more over the top. It also appears he is graceful, but needing a little more polish in his footwork. Nothing here to indicate he can't and won't continue to improve and smooth things out.

Nice mailbag and responses Cody! But I take issue with May as a possible opener, despite his previous starter experience. I see him as a valuable back of the pen option with not only his stuff and his finish to 2018, but also his embracing of his role as a reliever now. Just my opinion.

I remain very high on Gonsalves for all the reasons stated in the OP. His BB jumped in 2018 to be sure. But if I may quote directly from the 2019 Handbook: "He pitched masterfully in his first two starts for the Red Wings and only gave up two walks. Over his next nine starts, however, he battled command issues and walked 36 batters over a 38-inning stretch. As soon as the calendar flipped to July, Gonsalves appeared to regain his feel. Over his final eight starts for Rochester, he had a 1.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and only walked 17 batters over 48 innings." An uneven season, to be sure. But one in which he did what he has always done, which is make adjustments and "pitch". He's never been a thrower with a wipe-out slider or mid 90's FB. Primary starter or not, he did the same thing to end his 2018 season with the Twins, though in SSS. While I believe Thorpe has better pure stuff, I think Gonsalves will be fine as a back end SP with a ceiling of a quality #3. But I agree I think he begins 2019 at Rochester.

I was also really hoping for Familia, Soria or Robertson. Still kinda upset about Robertson in particular after what he signed for. Would have taken any of those three and been pretty darn happy. I'm pretty high on Cody Allen despite a down 2018. He just turned 30 in November. Career ERA of 2.98, (5 straight season's previously of an ERA under 3.00), career AVG of .217, career WHIP of 1.19, 3.26 career K/BB. Six straight season's of 67 or more appearances and IP. And those numbers include a down 2018. I just think he's a perfect fit unless there is some health or sudden velocity concern I am unaware of. Holland has been mentioned, but he's 3 years older than Allen, their career numbers and quite close, but Holland seems to be on a 3 year downward trend except for his late seaskn surge with the Nationals last season. I'm fine with Parker as a piece. Now give me Allen with all of the other pieces on hand and I'm actually pretty optimistic.

I would have to say Moya has a leg...errr...arm up on the competition unless Mejia isn't in the rotation. In that case Mejia to the pen, Moya to Rochester to begin the year. But to further complicate the issue, if Mejia isn't in the rotation, then I'm betting Romero is. Then we open up the discussion yet again.

I hear ya but cant look at those 4 in a vacuum. Schoop is coming off a down but injured season. He was outstanding the year before and had a pair of quality seasons before that. Cron got more than 409AB for the first time and Rocco is familiar with the adjustments he made. Torreys is depth and will almost assuredly be in Rochester. I think the arguement can be made Parker is a better arm than a couple guys still on the 40 man. I still want and think we need another arm and I'd like to see another quality "utility" or "flex" player added. But I cant disagree with these 4 signings for their individual purposes.

I really want/wanted one proven guy for the back end. Then, I thought a solid flier, and there have been a ton of interesting options, would make sense for depth and competition. This is the flier. Considering his past success, relatively young age and familiarity with the FO, is there something about Allen that we are just missing here? He should be signed within the next 48hrs if you ask me.

You had me at, "Five weeks until pitchers and catchers report".

Jim Thome

Nick, I actually get what it is you are doing here. And I appreciate your efforts tremendously. And I have held off commenting until I saw your final results. The absolute best part was where and how you broke down all options and evaluations at the end. Like any ranking, you can argue about a placement here or there and it doesn't really matter when you are talking about a spot or two. But a couple of qualms: 1] Sano should be ranked higher, or Buxton lower. The potential for these two is still tremendous! And each have issues and questions and each have issues and questions that are both similar and different. 2] Considering he was just drafted, I get leaving Larnach out of the equation. Not sure I'd leave Rooker out. 3] I have read and re-read your listings over and over again. Just to make sure i haven't missed anything. And nowhere is Lewis Thorpe mentioned. I think you are missing something there my friend.

Absolutely sick about Robertson! His contract is so manageable! Why didn't we do this? Maybe we contacted him, and maybe we didn't. Maybe he wanted to stay on the east coast, liked what the Phillies were doing, hates Minnesota, whatever. Just sick about what he signed for. On the positive side, there are still arms out there. Does this move the needle downward for terms, but upward for opportunity and expediency for Allen and Ottavino and others? Come on Twins! Bring in an arm and a flier and then add another quality "utility" player that is out there!

I'm with you! There is just so much potential there, and we've seen a mixed bag of flashes of what he can do and what he could be. We're I another team calling the Twins about trade possibilities, he'd be at the top of my list because what he might become in the next year to year and a half with experience and a more even, "locked in" approach.

Mike, as you have intelligently stated, there are reasons why all 3 options could work. But if forced to choose, I'm going with option #3, the pair of RP coming in around the $20M mark. Maybe I'm wrong, but Red's history, age, and a few, solid late season performances indicate to me it was just his turn to have an off season due to injury or a tired arm. Personally, I think May is for real, especially now that he has fully embraced his role as a reliever. Even if Rogers isn't as good as 2018, he's NICE. With his milb history and first 1 1/2 years of performance I'm betting on Hildenberger. Now, let's add in Moya, Mejia and Romero for their contributions...do be determined...as SP, RP, designated/primary SP, and we start to see a lot of arms an inventive coaching staff has to work with. Some may say I'm crazy, but if this staff can find greater consistency from Magill, his mid 90's FB and wicked slider could play a part as well. Can Reed and especially Curtiss finally show the consistency to make a real contribution? But I believe in depth and options. There are still a handful of quality guys with late inning stuff and history available to make a difference without making that HUGE commitment to that "one guy". I think Allen is one of those real opportunities. Then you could bring in a flier like Herrera, or someone else, coming off injury or a down season, to increase that depth and your options. I actually like a lot of what is on hand. But I really want that depth to work with.