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DocBauer

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Everything posted by DocBauer

  1. DocBauer
    Maybe it's bad memory/cluttered head or personal optimism/hyperbole, but I don't remember this many good arms in the system since the early and mid 80's. [Yes I'm dating myself some]. Not to bring up bad memories, but back then we had Bumgarner, Gasser, Nivens, Sontag, Banks, Newman and Pittman. Names ring a bell? NOT trying to lay down a curse, as pretty much all those guys flamed out for various reasons, but the depth of good looking arms in the system is the best I have seen in 30 years!
  2. DocBauer
    Wow, I had forgotten both those names. Thought Winfree would hit his way on to the club and maybe develop a little more power. Wasn't Oeltjen comparable to Rich Becker? The memory sometimes fades.
  3. DocBauer
    Funny how some old, largely forgotten, names of some past prospects have been brought up. But in all seriousness, and no slight meant to anyone, there are guys like David in the 30 range that would have been top 10-15 just a few years ago. Then you look at a guy like Poppen, who it could be argued is too low, having a fine season and flashed some legitimate MLB stuff in his cup of coffee at the bottom of the list! Two other things that strike me are: 1] Despite graduating so much talent to the Twins the past 3-4 seasons, the system is not only NOT depleted, but even deeper and stronger. 2] Interesting how many guys on this list have been added just in the past couple of years. Not only that, with juries still out of course, several acquired via trade. Absolutely ammunition for the future of the Twins, but ammo for decent trade options as well. And we sure cant keep them all.
  4. DocBauer
    Sorry, no. I'm still in on Tony Watson from the Giants for another LH who won't cost much, has had a nice career, and is still performing well. Then bring in a top RH arm to team with Rogers. HUGE improvement and depth with what we have. I'd be happy I think.
  5. DocBauer
    Great post and very informative! Fair or not I wonder if some are confusing Romero and Graterol. Not directly or absolutely, but seeing a young fireballer suddenly struggle. Maybe part of the "why can't we have nice things" arguement. HOPEFULLY, Graterol's injury turns out to be minor. But 20yo with stuff dominating AA when most guys his age are in A ball or lower? Just healthy and continuing to learn and grow is the important thing. My goodness, even 2 years away he would be young!
  6. DocBauer
    Count me as an optimist for this group, as well as the rest of the top 10. (Even beyond) Graterol is being fast tracked to AA at only 20yr old? And we are worried about SO numbers when most kids his age are in A or low A? PLEASE. My only concern is health. Let's say he has a blip and doesn't hit MLB until he's an "ancient" 22-23yr old. Come on! Wander, yea, he just needs to be healthy. All the talent in the world. Is he injury prone? Or is he just still growing in to his body? Time will tell, but I'd sure give him time at only 20. Were I a trade partner with the Twins, I'd be jumping on Larnach. Big bat and fast riser. The injury bug has, unfortunately, hit a lot of top prospects in the system, including Kirilloff. Stinks! But would you bet against him long term? Honestly, I think he's going to be special. And regarding the depth in the system...a hunch maybe...i think I'd keep him even beyond Lewis. That being said, I would do all I can to keep Lewis. Think about this for a second, he's only 20 and in A+ ball. Most guys his age are in rookie ball. But a great 2018 has some of us down on him why? Because we thought/hoped he'd be in the majors at 21? The depth and potential of this system is outstanding, I know a few guys are going to be gone in a couple of weeks. I just hope we are smart and make the right moves without giving up too much.
  7. DocBauer
    This one of the guys at the top of my list. Yes, he has regressed a bit and not having a great 2019. Not horrible, but not great. But not only are RP volitle in nature, but like anyone, sometimes wrong place and wrong time. He's healthy, under 30, can still bring it, and a change of scenery and a really nice pitching coach and winning team can do wonders. Sound like a team we know? Plus he is controlled for a 2nd season. Yes, we need another LH. There a couple guys already mentioned from the port side I like. And while some disagree with me, I like May and think he's starting to get his breaking ball command back. And that is the key for him. But Rogers is no LOOGY. And when crunch time comes, this team needs another LH out of the pen unless Mejia, Smeltzer or Thorpe suddenly finds they can do that. Would a couple weeks make you feel good about that? Were I in charge, I'd pick up the best RHRP I could find with at least 1 year of control to team with Rogers. Iglesius is near the top of my list. Rental or not, I'd be looking at someone like Watson, proven and still solid, as my LH option.
  8. DocBauer
    Love your comment and agree 100% Blake. What I find so fascinating about ML SP is the debate about #1 SP and who and what an ACE is. Loving and following BB for over 45yrs now, I have seen TOP prospects fizzle, and more than a few guys who liiked like an ACE very early and then through injury or whatnot, taper off to being very good. Of course, there have been those special pitchers, thinking Clemens as an example, who were good from day one and maintained it. But those guys are RARE. Maybe I'm wrong, and someone could make a lengthy and impressive list to counter me, but it has been my experience over the years that truly top of tbe roation SP usually hit their stride in their late 20's and seem to maintain that status through their early 30's and even maintain until about 34/35. There are exceptions of longer and shorter, of course. There are arguments that Berrios is not an ACE. But he keeps getting better and better. I think an arguement could be made that his last 3 starts, all no-decision or loss, has been some of the best games he has thrown. Odorizzi was a top prospect who turned out to be solid but not great. Now, late 20's, with a new team and coaches, we are perhaps seeing the best of him and his potential. Despite his numbers and success, he's not often a 7 IP tbe way Berrios often is. That may hold back any discussion as to being a true ACE. And can he sustain what he is now doing for another 2-4 years? Time will tell. But I sure wouldn't dismiss the possibility. I argued before the season began that Pineda would be solid, and get better, as long as he was healthy and his IP were monitored. I stated that Gibson and Pineda may be the 2 guys we tried to bring back. Not saying I was wrong, but I may have been short-sighted in regard to Odorizzi. I was wrong about bringing Perez onboard. Then can't believe it, but I was actually defending him when he slumped. But I felt he was victim to a couple bad plays, mistake pitches, and was still showing some very good moments. Then he goes out and pitches a great rebound game in that disappointing 18 inning marathon. I don't have answers to the future but like you, I think this FO and staff is pretty smart. Cost and years will be the deciding factor, of course. But right now, I think this team has a budding ACE. I would love to see both Gibson and Odorizzi brought back. History and age would tell me Gibson will not break the bank. But I do wonder about the cost for Odorizzi. Perhaps comjng in to his own in his late 20's, does a depressed market make him affordable even after a career year? Or does past career numbers and a career year prove to be an outlier and nobody will offer the big 4-5yr deal at $20M and make him more easily extendable/re-signed by the Twins?
  9. DocBauer
    This! A "lousy", .500 week with an 18 inning game, jet lag, road trip, guys banged up, guys just coming off the IL, with legitimate chances to win every lost game...yeah...give me this week as the bottom of our barrell.
  10. DocBauer
    By no means am I comparing Lewis and Cavaco by saying they are the same athlete, or have identical skill sets, or anything of that nature. But I've always thought it was interesting/fascinating how someone so supremely talented as Lewis, considered a legitimate future ML SS didn't even play the spot until his senior year. The answer appears to be an upperclassmen who was pretty good. So now, you have another really good athlete who reportedly has the arm, range and quick reaction skill set to be fine 3B. Why the neck not just try him at SS to see what you have. May end up with a surprise, you never know. Man, just a couple years ago we had Dozier and that was about it. Depth may change with trades, but man do we have some good looking options from the ML club on down!
  11. DocBauer
    BTW, been a believer in Kepler for a while now. Really thought 2018 might be the start of his coming of age season. Obviously wrong on that one,and admit it. But I also state I have been on record as to believing it was only a matter of time and growth before he put it together and dismissed opinion he was a 4th OF. The guy just exudes athletic talent and potential. I was just a season, maybe, late for when it would all start to coalesce for him. Funny how 2 years ago Rosario was a 4th OF. And a BTW, Polanco could never play SS. This past off season, Kepler was a 4th OF. Absolutely NOT picking on anyone! Just stating how frustrating the word "patience" can be. We might remember that ugly word when we think about and discuss Sano.
  12. DocBauer
    Not going to post twinssporto for brevity, but agree with his comments. End of June and a rash of injuries and questions about the BP and this team has yet to lose mkre than 2 games in a row??!! This team absolutely believes in itself! 1] A little disappointed Pineda didn't start the 7th. But I also see what Rocco is doing here. Very smart! Let him continue on his recovery arc and be effective for the whole season. 2] Anyone else notice that after a 7-10 stretch the pen has actually been damn good? Not saying we don't need improvement, but the rebound has been great and unexpected. 3] Sano: What do you say? He's rebounding emotionally, physically and mentally from a lost season with zero ST and possibly an abbreviated milb rehab. He looks good. Then he looks awefull. Pathetic even. SSS, he's on a sudden terror. I saw one AB today where Nova was pitching him outside. Not WAY outside as we've seen recently. And he stood tall, didn't swing or check swing, and took the BB. something is happening/changing. In the broadcast today, there was serious and joking commentary about Cruz and Sano having fun mimicking one another on HR trots. And a comment was made that you couldn't ask for a better example on the club for Sano, and his maturation, than having Cruz on the team. I don't think this should be glossed over as hyperbole. Excited to see Thorpe in his debut tomorrow!
  13. DocBauer
    SO much about this debate on Arraez and Gordon I like and find interesting. And I think both sides of the aisle here are smart with their opinions. And let us not forget, at least in regard to the TD rankings here in the OP, we are talking a neck and neck debate. Things change. The fortunes of young prospects change. Sticking only with infield comparisons, it was not so long ago Polanco was questionable for various reasons, offensively and especially defensively. Now, I am NOT opening up a debate/ perspective on Polanco, just using him as an example. NOBODY can seriously debate that Arreaz has a better hit tool than Gordon. At the very least, at this point in their careers. But scouts and prospect rankings are based on tools and potential. I am no expert, to be sure. But we are talking about one guy who has more speed, more overall athleticism, SS potential/ability, and what scouts see as more pop/power than a hit machine prosoect. Those reports and observations are real. Now, it doesn't mean Gordon WILL BE the better player. It only means his tools equate to a potentially better overall player. BOTH of these guys have slight frames and need to add muscle. BOTH can. BOTH can work on arm strength and hands and positioning to make them better defensively. Right now, today, health and hit tool has Arreaz with the Twins. And I am thrilled by what I see thus far in SSS. But with a good start to 2018, in case you forgot, Gordon might have been brought up before Arreaz if he hadn't made a trip to the IL. This conversation may be entirely different had said injury not happened. It is a very real possibility we would be talking about Gordon as our 2B next season and Arreaz as trade bait. I am reminded of Jay Bell, a couple decades ago, who seemed to disappoint before being traded and carved out a very nice career as a 2B/SS elsewhere. Gordon could flop! He may never hit as well as Arraez, and I'd bet he won't. But by next season, he could be better defensively, and even more versatile/valuable as a result, with more speed and just as much pop/power or more. To be clear, I like both kids a lot. Would be nice to keep both, but guessing one will be gone soon. But long term, debating one is clearly a superior prospect over the other at this time is a bit of a fools errand. I just hope whichever one stays is the right choice by the FO.
  14. DocBauer
    Very interesting post Mike, and something that's been on my mind for a couple weeks now as I've seen a few games with "dumb" errors that I swear I didn't see earlier in the season. And I'm going to agree with you and Platoon that baseball defence is darn near impossible to accurately measure. I mean, what if 3 or 4 guys are truly outstanding defensive players by any metric and observation, and make unbelievable plays at times, but the rest of a normal lineup is very average. As a TEAM, a few guys could make the metrics look good. But what if your entire, regular lineup is nothing but average at best, but catches what they can get to, and don't make silly mistakes? Overall, that team could rank high in metrics as a team, but do next to nothing to make a DIFFERENCE on a game to game basis. I ran a simple search and pulled up a few sites to see what they had to say, based on how they quantify things. ESPN and FOX both had the Twins at 18, just below average, but not terrible. As close as some teams are, about average in comparison. Baseball Reference, however, seemed to use a different algorithm by a culmination of all positions and Wins Above Average, which I believe would be their version on defensive WAR. They had the Twins ranked 3rd in MLB behind the Dodgers and Astros. In any sport, at any level, I believe in strong defense. Again, how do you accurately measure that? Maybe I'm just old school, but beyond any statistic you want to use, I still believe in they Eye Test. There is simply no way to deny what you actually see! I was very surprised by the number of errors attributed to Cron, for instance, in your OP. I have seen a couple bad plays or throws...they happen...but his defense has been good to outstanding virtually every game I have watched. Schoop has impressed me time and again with fine defense at 2B, but I also witnessed a handful of just bad plays a couple weeks ago where it just seemed he tried to hard to make a GREAT play, instead of the right play, and threw the ball away. Does that make him a poor defensive player, day by day when I watch what he does consistently? Or a good defensive 2B who made a handful of poor decisions trying too hard? Day in day out, what my EYES tell me is this is a good to very good defensive team, overall, who had a rather bad stretch over about a 10 game streak a week or so ago. Just my opinion, of course.
  15. DocBauer
    Gordon vs Arraez: An interesting debate on the two. I don't think anyone here is ranking Gordon where they are because he was the 5th player selected. I think he was the 5th player selected because of his tools and potential. From everything reported, here and elsewhere, Gordon is better defensively with a better arm, more speed, and more pop. We have been lead to believe Arreaz is a "decent" 2B and that's pretty much it. And yet the Twins have been playing him all across the field. Is this desperation? Or are they seeing real improvement in his defense across the board? Speaking of potential only, Gordon wins 4 of 5 categories with Arraez clearly the better hitter. That DOES NOT mean Arraez can't/won't be the better player with defensive improvement and more pop/power through maturation. I'm glad to have both, at least for now. Personally, I never thought this was Gordon's year for a ML appearance, unless it was very late. I've always thought he needed a full year at Rochester and some more physical development with 2020 being his season. Rortvedt vs Jeffers: personally, I'd have Rortvedt higher than Jeffers. He's a year younger and already a quality defensive catcher, reportedly, and getting better. His bat appears solid and there is budding power. No question Jeffers is the better and more powerful hitter, at least at this point, and probably potentially. It all comes down to how good Jeffers is defensively now, and potentially. We seem to hear mixed things in this regard. Kind of seems as though the Twins like and believe in his defense but outside sources are not so sold. Thorpe: I'm still a big believer. I hate to keep saying these things, but 23yo in his first full season of AAA is NOT old, especially considering the two missed seasons. From a pure experience and player development perspective, he's like a 21yo. Think about that. He's been inconsistent so far this season, but the SO numbers are encouraging. And I'd be more disappointed, or worried, if he began the year hot and then struggled. Instead, the opposite seems to be the case. He's improving as the season goes along. Wallner: I'm sure Wallner is a fine young talent and worthy of his draft selection and his ranking here. What I find interesting is the timing of his selection. He seems to be a perfect system replacement for either Rooker or Larnach, either of whom could be included in a deal/deals for pitching help.
  16. DocBauer
    Tough loss to be sure. But Perez looked his new self again and the pen was outstanding.
  17. DocBauer
    Were I a trade partner for the Twins, I'd be jumping on Blenkenhorn and Rortvedt. I'd really like to keep Rortvedt, but if the right package was there, you'd have to include him. Disappointed in Alcala. I know his future spoke about a BP role, just really thought/hoped he would figure something out. I think it's the right time to move him to the pen and just make the adjustment.
  18. DocBauer
    Twins win!! Twins win!! Best part of things! I didn't see the game, so I missed the whole bunt situation. So I will only comment in general BB terms. The bunt is going away in MLB, as is the SB, based on everything from BP usage to shifts and launch angles and HR production. But there is a place for all things. And all things are cyclical. There is still a time and place for a bunt in this game. Perhaps Rocco needs to perform a "Kelly" and have the team work on a few fundamentals for when it's needed. Also frustrates me that a team with so many good athletes available can't steal a base. I get having such a powerful lineup you don't want to risk giving up an out. And this team really hustles for the extra base and generally runs the bases well. But there is nothing wrong with the occasional bunt or SB to put the pressure on the opposing team. Especially when today's game is not looking for those things. Crazy about the pen! We need help, internally or externally. But crazy how bad they looked for a few games, and yet have rebounded. Baseball is a crazy game!
  19. DocBauer
    I like Schoop a LOT! He bas a great personality, seems to be a great teammate, and plays very nice defense despite a couple recent gaffes when it seemed he tried too hard to make a play. He is a decent hitter with crazy power. He bas rebounded nicely from his injury plagued 2018, and has shown now, and previously, what he is capable of. I feel his best years are actually ahead of him. And I'd love to see him re-signed. And if he is not, I'm afraid there will be a lot of angst about woulda/coulda/shoulda. But the reality is you have to have a complete team. And in this market...please don't bring in the tired old ownership arguement again...you do have certain limitations. The Twins have additional extensions be considered. They have a couple decisions to make regarding the rotation for next season. Schoop just might not fit in. Unless he is traded...and were I a trade candidate team for the Twins I would have to consider him...i would strongly consider Arreaz for 2B next season. And while he may have a SSS at the ML level, you just can't discount his hit ability. You have to believe he will develop at least a little more pop, if not power, as he matures. A few games ago, there was much made about comments from Dick and Bert about how Arreaz seemed to survey the field as he came to bat. And this was dismissed and laughed about by most as hyperbole. But is it really? This guy has raked at every level, and has shown at the ML level that he knows how to hit and has an idea when he comes to the plate. One thing I find interesting is how we've been told he is a natural 2B, and that's it. And that may indeed be true. But Rocco has been OK tossing him out there at different spots. I really don't know how his defense plays at this point. And I doubt most of us do either. Starting 2B or utility player to begin his career? How much pop/power might he develop? How much plate discipline can he develop for OB sake? All questions to be answered. But you simply don't hit the way he has in his entire milb career, or hit the way he has thus far at the ML level, SSS understood, unless you actually have a HIT tool.
  20. DocBauer
    DMAN, liked your post but decided not to copy for brevity sake. (That's really saying something for ME, LOL) I don't want to speak out of turn for Seth, or anyone else, but I suspect Gonsalves is rated higher...partially due to not being downgraded due to injury...because his build and velocity is bigger and a couple MPH better on average. He also has more time at AAA. And even though he was hit and cold in 2018, there were stretches where he was awfully good. But I hear and see your point 100%. Both guys just have the "pitchability" factor that should never be ignored. I'm also with you on Raley. I even made some statements early in the season that I felt Raley was a better overall prospect than Rooker. And that's NOT a shot at Rooker, who probably has even more power, but Raley seems to have way more positional flexibility. For goodness sake, even in ST they put him in CF. Seems to me he's "similar" to Kepler in many regards, but probably not as natural in CF. Seems like Diaz has been around FOREVER. And then I see he's only 22, at AA, maybe having his best season ever, and has matured mentally and physically. He keeps this up, he could be top 20 by season's end, despite depth in the system. Disappointed we probably won't see Canterino this year. But it makes sense. I wont use tbe word "abused", but most college SP log a lot of IP already when drafted between their season and various "off season" leagues they appear in. I just don't know enough about Celestino to comment. Simply going to trust the informed TD staff on this one. But would love to hear more about projections regarding him.
  21. DocBauer
    I believe the Twins can and will shoot higher than Hendricks. But just for fun, I looked at his basic numbers since he became SO in 2015. Keep in mind these numbers are slightly skewed due to on incredible SO/BB ratio in 2015 and only a, almost, half season in 2019. 3.30 ERA/ 1.227 WHIP/ 4.01 SO-BB/ 9.94 K-9/ .241 BA Nothing earth shattering, but those are fine numbers. He wouldn't be my first choice, but if the A's decide to on, he would be a cheap and useful addition.
  22. DocBauer
    Grrrr.....was attempting to quote point #2 about the number of middle to in pitches being yanked foul and blew it somehow. Parker, to me that goes back not only to his late "cocking" of his hands, but also the sense he is leaning forward in his stance. Not saying he is off balance, but his left shoulder seems to be tilted in and down. To me, that would seem he is having a hard time opening up quickly enough to barrell up on those balls and drive them straight and true SOMEWHERE. Do you feel that his late cock of the hands is a device to just mash the ball? He has so much natural strength, I would think a slightly more "upright" stance and earlier placement of the hands would allow much quicker reaction time, as stated, but drive the middle in pitches so much better. Might also allow him to lay off the outside stuff more. Forget covering the plate when down in the count, if your whole body stance is focused downward those outside pitches would inevitably look more reachable when they are not. Your analysis is outstanding! But with all due respect, shouldn't Rowson and the entire analytics staff be able to see these same things? Maybe you need to apply for, at the least, a part time job working for our beloved Twins.
  23. DocBauer
  24. DocBauer
    Agreed 100%. But the Allen signing does nothing to preclude real movement. Remember all of those FA RP that were on the market? Most of them have been injured or poor. And Allen was one of the guys, me included, that a lot of us were pining for and expected. Maybe it was wrong time and wrong place for him. Maybe he's just toast. But maybe he just needs a different time and place and the Twins see something. Just a flier at this point.
  25. DocBauer
    I was working today so only caught a few glimpses of the game, checked in on the Box and game thread after the fact. Take that for WIW and let me make some points. You KNOW I get long winded. (Special shout out to Vanimal, and he knows why, lol) 1] 25yr old Berrios is not an ACE. Think about that for a moment. Think about what we have seen from him previously, what we know about him, and seen in his last 2 starts/no decisions. Just how good could he be in the next year or two? Again, 25yo. (But he's owed a couple easy wins at this point) 2] Bullpen: The pen needs help! We all know this. And recently, the pen had a bad stretch. But go back again and read about the recent stretch the pen has bad in the OP. You don't win 50 games at this point if your pen in worthless. The sky has not fallen yet. Get over it. We need an "Atlas" or 2 for the long haul, but pieces of the heavens have not been cascading down to create Armageddon 2. 3] Rogers is a stud! He blew a save. He allowed a big hit from a LH batter for the first time since 2017. Hey, I will take that. May has been a disappointment to me. He is a disappointment because of his ability and his acceptance of his role and what he did last season. As much praise as we heap on Johnson, deservedly so, May should be a special project. For some reason his breaking ball just hasn't been there consistently. His WHIP is high due to BB. But his season numbers are not terrible, and his last 7 games numbers are pretty solid. Regardless of acquisitions made, May rounding in to form makes a real difference. 4] Cave and Sano. Cave showed last season what he could do. For whatever reason, be got off to a slow start. He raked at Rochester recently and stunk when he came up. Pressing? One game doesn't make up for pitifull performance. But to just bash him is not realistic at this point. This is even more true for Sano. Look, I'm a fan and believer in Sano's ability and potential. And even I am frustrated as sh*t by his most recent performance! Even as a believer I am thinking he should be sent down for a time. But his re-dedication has been documented. Great! But he also missed all of ST, and IMO, was brought up too soon. But here he is. It is sad to say he is a work in progress, but reality will tell you that he is. A couple big hits the last couple of days does not make up for some very, very poor performances of late. But perhaps it is a start to confidence. Hope so. Can we at least give him a full season to adjust, grow and adapt with his new dedication? If not....should have just given up on Polanco, Kepler, and Rosario a season ago. Off my soapbox.
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