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Everything posted by DocBauer
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Ted, absolutely respect your opinion and that of your source. Various reports/observations/opinions are the change and breaking stuff are there but need refinement. And I'm OK with that 100% for such a talented YOUNG pitcher. I have no problem with a young man who seems to be mature and hard working and dedicated as Graterol seems to be getting a September look, in whatever capacity. But I remain guarded in regard to what he can bring THIS YEAR to the team. I repeat that his auditioning isn't an issue at this point, but adapting to MLB as well as the ML baseball so soon to make a difference is a mistake in my opinion. Take a look. Go ahead. Lightening may strike. I hope it does. But to really expect him to supplant Romo, Dyson, May or even Littell at this point is a fools errand IMO. If lightning happens, great! But I think any promotion shoukd be about gaining exlerience to get ready for 2020, and nkt some inflated hope he will make a difference for a playoff push.
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- minnesota twins
- gilberto celestino
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No question Ober is having an amazing year. Really too bad he missed time due to injury. I hate to play the age game as I don't really think it's fair, but he turned 24yo in July and is now at AA. This is only his 3rd season, his 2nd full season year. Might have him flying under the radar a bit as a result.
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- minnesota twins
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How about, despite a lack of imperfection, that all teams have, they are still one of the best teams in all of MLB?
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- minnesota twins
- nelson cruz
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Jeremy, I appreciate your thoughts and efforts in this post. But I think Graterol and Alcala are really the only two to be considered here. I think we all know full well that Graterol is seen as a viable SP option with a very high ceiling. I think we also know full well that for NOW, the FO is seeing him as a potentially viable asset for 2019 in the pen as a power arm to make a run. No question he is back to starting in 2020. I think we are all less certain how to view Alcala. More to the point, how the FO views him. You hate to give up on a power arm as a potential rotation piece too soon, but everything I've read from day one is he just may never have that 3rd/4th pitch consistency to be a starter. But there is absolutely nothing wrong with him becoming a dominate bullpen arm, especially in today's game. My concern for both, however, is not their stuff, their potential, nor the jump from AA. My concern is time to adjust to the ML baseball in so short of a time to truly have an impact the remainder of this season. I suppose a healthy and re-built O'Rourke shouldn't be discounted flippantly. Especially considering his LH dominance. But I'd say too little too late for the rest of 2019. Right now, I'd say he is behind Thorpe and Smeltzer.
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I liked your comment, even though I disagree with the last part. I feel a veteran backstop to team with Garver is very likely. I am also very much hoping it is Castro on a more team friendly 2yr deal. The market is way too unpredictable to speculate. On the one hand, good catchers are hard to find and Castro is probably having his best season. On the other hand, he is over 30, mjssed almost all of 2018, has a repaired knee, and may be seen as an every day option to most/all teams. Where I disagree is Astudillo, especially with the 26 man roster next season. I think the Twins like him very much, and not just for his personality. He's had ups and downs this year to be sure. But when he has been healthy, he's hit well and provided pop and some quality production. He offers roster flexibility that thus team really embraces. I think they view him as a keeper, just maybe not the true #2 catcher.
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Color me extremely disappointed dropping this series. Especially because it was the Dirty Sox and I just hate losing to them. All the more disappointing coming off the Texas sweep. But reality is, 5-2 the last 7 games. I'll take That! Sometimes, it's not who you play, but when you play them. Did someone cage the squirrel?
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- jake odorizzi
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After tonight, with his 33rd Bomba, I believe he sits at 393HR for his career. We're he healthy and playing every game of the 36 yet to play, he is on trajectory to hit 13 more. That would give him 46 for the season. Let's just say he is healthy, but gets a few days off here and there and doesn't maintain quite the torrid pace he is on. And let's just say he hits 7 more for an even 40 on the season. That gives him an even 400HR at the end of 2019. Considering his age and usual career numbers, realistically, he would need at least 3 seasons, probably 4, to reach 500. Can he do it? I don't know. But be seems to be a cyborg so who knows. I think there is little doubt he's back next season. Healthy, he could continue similar results and crank another 30-40 in 2020. Ortiz played until he was just shy of 41yo. While productive until the end, it seemed his body started to give out. I made a flippant comment weeks ago that Cruz was a good karma signing in regard to our loss of Ortiz. Cruz's body could just start to give out. Age happens. What I know is he has made a tremendous impact on this team, and more than likely will in 2020 as well. Selfishly, beyond that I'm not sure I know or care at this point. But what I do know is I'm enjoying every moment of him with our beloved Twins.
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Mediocre? Might be accurate. But there's been a lot of talk about the Twins, and other teams, and their records against .500 or better teams. The Twins were on the road, in terrible heat, and playing a .500 team. That team is now 4 games under .500.
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- jorge polanco
- martin perez
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Front Page: Dear Future Rocco
DocBauer replied to Thiéres Rabelo's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm not going to write a letter, but I am going to address the various points: Defense: I agree with trade offs defensively in regard to the infield, particularly at SS and 3B. IMO, Polanco and Sano are solid. They make most all routine plays as well as some great ones. They also just throw the ball away or drop a ball at times. I believe each is very capable of developing over time as they gain experience. I believe each are still only 25/26yo. We've already seen improvement from both. But I'd like to add, there is nothing wrong with Adrianza giving Polanco a day off here or there. I think he may be getting a little fatigued from the grind. No matter what the error totals show, I've really liked Cron at 1B. Bullpen: I loved Brian's comments, tongue in cheek or not, about good teammates and nice guys that should have been gone sooner. But to be real, a few things just didn't work like they were supposed to. The Dyson and Romo moves should prove excellent. But I sure wish they could have been done earlier. The entire complexion of the one might have different if the quality young arms of Mejia and Romero had come through as hoped. I applaud the Rochester shuttle auditions and feel there are a couple young arms that could help shape and deepen the pen going forward. And Romo could even be back next season. Regardless, I'd like 1 more quality arm before 2020 starts to go with what we have on hand. Largely, I've been pleased with the way Rocco has used his pen. The exception maybe being Rogers. Hopefully, going forward, there can be far fewer games of 5-6 outs on consecutive days. I would add, however, even with a lead, I have been a bit frustrated when a RP has come in and just looks like he doesnt have it and Rocco stuck with him too long. Injuries: You just can't stop them. But this year and last are night and day different. And depth has allowed us to weather the few we have had. The entire pitching staff has been very healthy. The Buxton situation is a tricky one to be sure. I still like the idea of him playing deeper this season. And I think his hard offseason work to get stronger will continue to pay dividends. I'm still a bit dumbfounded I have never heard anything about Hunter being used as an experienced sounding board for him. -
So many good posts I had to quit "liking" them and skim. If Cave actually did something wrong, or felt he did, his apology should have ended it. Throwing a hard object at someone who had nothing to do with the situation is childish, poor sportsmanship, and borders on mild assault. To lay down and not try...as I guess Cave was supposed to do...is ridiculous. He didn't hunt or steal a base...he hit a 3-0 pitch down the middle for a hit. In the heyday of my Cornhuskers destroying other teams, they would run up yardage and the score using 2nd, 3rd and sometimes even 4th team players. They quit throwing the ball and they never ran trick plays or fakes. But they also didn't instruct the reserves to quit playing and not try. I guess Cave should have just stood there with his bat on his shoulder and waited for a BB or called SO? Come to think of it, that's probably what the rest of the team should have done, just stand there and let the pitcher do what he wanted. Just ridiculous!
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- jake cave
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I am a bit late but here I go. 1] I agree Pineda is a key. He bas been very solid and consistent. As pointed out in the OP, his ERA...not exactly the best measurement..is a bit inflated from a few bad performances. That can be said for a LOT of pitchers. He has good stuff, has had a nice career, and his biggest problem has simply been injuries that have slowed him. His signing was very smart. Coming off TJ, the Twins have handled him perfectly! 2] I don't know that Pineda is my #2 when playoff time comes. The problem with the rotation, right now, is NOT that anyone stinks. The problem is that everyone seems to be hitting a lull at once. Berrios bas one of the best starts of his young career followed by a bad one and then a mediocre one. Odorizzi seemed to have a recent finger issue. But I remind everyone he finished both 2017 and 2018 strong. Gibson had a STRONG year and a half coming in to this season before a rough start due to illness, missing time, etc. He hasn't been quite the same, but you still see starts where he is the same "new" pitcher he morphed in to. Usually, batters and pitchers have highs and lows in a season. Unfortunately, our rotation seems to all have had a lull recently. There is still a month and a half to set things straight! Before the season began, we all knew 3 pieces of our rotation were potential FA. I stated then that nobody should be surprised if Pineda turned out to be a priority when all is said and done. I think that is coming true. This OK is about the post season, but we also understand the reality of tomorrow, and this thread is leaning that way. I get it. Makes sense under the circumstances. This team has truly has the ability to go deep and win it all. They could also be done 1st round. But isn't that true every year? If we want to discuss next year, my personal belief is anywhere from 50-50 To 75-25 the FO makes a major move to add a major rotation piece to join Berrios. My vastly differential exists because the entire market has changed so much the past 3 years. FA options have changed so much. The first year of the new trade deadline left so many teams holding their cards thinking they had a shot. The Twins have a deep enough system to trade away 4 top 20 prospects for a quality SP without doing anything to "damage" their system. Regardless, especially considering how the market has changed, I believe the Twins can, and probably will, bring back 2 of their 3 impending FA SP. The question is which 2? Not necessarily a proven ACE, but a talented arm with a couple of years of control is brought in to team with Berrios. Pick your player! Between Odorizzi, Gibson and Pineda, which 2 would you choose? Because I see finances and production making cases for any of the 3.
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- michael pineda
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Front Page: The Twins' Three Looming Wild Cards
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
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Front Page: The Twins' Three Looming Wild Cards
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
On the milb level, my 3 biggest disappointments have been Gonsalves, Raley and Javier. Unfortunately, luck and baseball gods are not always kind. Gonsalves is a better version of Smeltzer. And I love Smeltzer! Despite criticism he has earned, some warranted I think, Gonsalves has done absolutely nothing but perform at every level. I have stated repeatedly, and do so again now, he WILL NOT come up to MLB and dominate. He will do what he he has always done, which is "pitch" and learn and adapt and end up being anywhere from a nice #3 To AT WORST a high quality #5. He even showed glimpses late last season. But to expect anything from him this year is a fools errand. This time next year, I'd expect a few people to hopefully say; "Doc, you were right to believe. We have a pitcher here". Hildenberger? Man, I would jump for joy, try a handstand, or do anything I could, even if it meant embarrassing myself if the GOOD Hildenberger would suddenly be consistent. Graterol is the one I could agree with. Call me unconvinced. His talent and potential are amazing! I don't subscribe to "babying" a player. And his arm talent is AMAZING! And if he could help now, go for it! But he has yet to pitch above AA or pitch with a ML ball. IDK, maybe he'd surprise. I'd be more inclined to think about preparing him for 2020. -
IMHO, point 3 seems to be the accurate one. He was pitching through a problem and gutted it out and didn't tell anyone. I know physicals take place before any player is signed or traded for. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe I am. However, if this would be a "soft tissue" injury, such as tendonitis or something similar, that would not be caught in any rudimentary exam. That would indicate Dyson was "gutting it out" as an athlete or being deceptive. How else could you paint it? He has openly admitted the situation. The Twins have filed no grievance at this point. That means rules state they can't because it slipped through. OR, they believe the injury is insignificant enough to allow rest and rehab time to contribute the remainder of this season and the next. I will root like he'll for a healthy Dyson. But right now, he's not looking so good to me.
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To be honest, I'm very surprised by Antony's comments. Oh, I have complete faith/hope in this kid to be sure! He has an ELECTRIC arm and wicked stuff and only needs a little more consistency and better off speed to potentially be special. But still only 20 for a couple more weeks, even with a missed season, and already dominating at AA WHEN HEALTHY, I'm still surprised. Most guys his age are in rookie or A ball. Even if they didn't miss a year! I am all for aggressive promotion, even as I often preach patience at times. And this FO is so much more aggressive than the previous one. But no matter how talented, they could be considering a pitcher from his first season in AA coming off an injury to jump to the ML level to help this year? Long term, would such a trial actually benefit his long term development? If he is at Pensacola in the next few days and dominates for the remainder of August I guess I could imagine it. He's added to the 40 man and is eligible and you could take a look-see. But I just don't see it, IMO. If they are right, then not only are they geniuses, but whatever supplements they are on, whatever they eat or otherwise, I want to know so I can jump on board.
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I also was confused by that comment and thought the same thing you did. I don't want to speak for Ted, but IMO, he was referencing the previous Darvish situation, any other SP that may have been on the market last offseason...though memory doesn't recall many...as well as speculating for 2020 as well.
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Outstanding OP, Ted! For me, IMO, I was very happy with the moves the Twins made...with the OBVIOUS caveat I want a healthy and productive Dyson ASAP! Some might claim I am "Pollyanna" in regard to the roster and a sense of hoarding prospects, but that is not the case at all. Just as the Cubs and Astros made key moves at key times, I believe the Twins are ready, or nearly ready to do so. This is NOT the time and place to debate options, more or less, or earlier FA for players, etc. It's about the reality if the system in place and how it works. Over the past few seasons, the majority of MLB teams have combined history with analytics to change the face of the game when it comes to roster building and player acquisition: 1] I despise the term "tanking" in any sport as it has such a negative connotation. But the reality is, if your team truly has no chance to compete for playoffs or a championship, why not play younger, less expensive players, promote in a very aggressive fashion, and begin to develop what you have as quickly as possible. This leads to the BASE foundation of your team. We have also seen legal ways of manipulating the draft within baseball to acquire additional prospects. Trading veterans who won't be there when the franchise turns around is well established in all sports. 2] And this actually combines somewhat with my first point, the FA market has changed dramatically the past few years. Some guys still get big to huge paydays. But history has shown big, long term contracts often don't end up paying out in any equal proportion over time. (Big market teams can obviously still absorb these lost dollars much more so then mid or small market teams). 3] Combined with points 1 and 2, the value, or perceived value, of prospects, those a team has and those acquired, have risen in value as teams look for alternatives for a re-build, or to supplement a good team vs the over 30yr old FA route. Despite a flash in 2017 that lead to a nice finish and a WC birth, and a disappointing 2018 that coulda/shoulda been better than it was, 2019 is the season when the fruits of labor and patience are just starting to really pay off for the Twins and the BASE they have been building. And for the most part, it is still a very young team. Meanwhile, in addition to development at the ML level, the FO has made a few smart and key moves while continuing to build one of the best milb systems around. (Along with coaching and approach changes). This was the FIRST season with new deadline rules in place. A first for every team in contention, for every team believing they may be in contention, and for those teams out of contention. Despite the requisite rumors, very few BIG NAME players were actually moved. If rumors are to be believed, even to a cautious degree, there were a lot of high demands placed on proposed trades. All that being not only said, but proven by the various changes we can clearly see happening, was this really the year for the Twins to throw caution to the wind? I think not.i think the FO made a pair of really smart moves to add to one of the best teams in MLB without sacrificing the near and impending future. I think they handled THIS season correctly. And this team has a chance, make no mistake about it. And that's what you play for, in any sport, a real chance. I dislike referring to players as "capital", but in proper context, they are. And when this next off season comes, the Twins have a ton of player capital to make a move or two to build up with. Of course, I want their crystal ball to work to the degree where they keep the very best options and trade away the ones that won't come back to haunt. WAY TOO EARLY speculation, I'd say 50-50 roughly, maybe 60-40, the Twins will trade 4-5 prospects in their top 30 for a top rotation piece that is established, or maybe just primed to take the next step. I firmly believe at least 1 of our current rotation arms are back, and very possibly 2, on some sort of extension/1yr deal. Trade or FA possibly another BP arm. They will also, as they should, take on a couple of fliers. But right now, I feel the "hoarding" of prospects in 2019...and I deliberately used quotes...was the correct move.
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Front Page: Jonathan Schoop Becoming the Odd Man Out
DocBauer replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Arraez appears to be the real deal and our starting 2B next season and beyond. Despite slumping lately, Schoop is a nice player both offensively and defensively. Arraez is just out producing him. That doesn't mean Schoop doesn't have value. In fact, with Buxton out for a while, we may need Marwin more in the OF. That makes Schoop all the more valuable to allow Arraez to continue to be versatile.- 39 replies
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Front Page: Buxton’s Body and Cave’s Opportunity
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I didn't see the play that caused the injury but sounds like it wasn't a really hard impact play. And for the most part, even with the concussion and wisdom teeth situation, he's been available most of the season until now. I understand injuries in the past but he also has had some "bad luck" incidents. With his build up, with him playing deeper, i am not yet going down the injury prone road. But dang it! Cave is NOT old, though he is a bit of a late bloomer. No crime in that. He showed us last season, as a rookie with fairly regular playing time, what he is capable of. He has raked at Rochester this season. Despite poor ML numbers to this point in 2019m to just dismiss him would be a mistake, IMO. Other than a quick return for Buxton, the Twins really need 2 things right now: 1] Cave to work with Rowson intently to re-discover what he is missing, or to better translate what he did last year and has been doing at Rochester. And Cave needs to relax, just have fun and let the game come to him, and just quit worrying about making an impression before another possible shuttle to Rochester. 2] Marwin to get out of his slump. He can easily be a successful part of a still quality OF situation.- 39 replies
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Couldn't join the thread tonight but wish I could have. Great game! Odorizzi was quality, May started to look like the guy want him to be think he could be and seemed to be flashing again before that recent bad stretch. (Harper didn't have it tonight, but it happens). The offense did a little bit of everything, including Sano's amazing BOMBA. The BA is still a little low, of course but Sano had built a bit of a hole for himself in that regard. But he has been looking like a very different player after that truly ugly stretch he had in June. I sure hope some of the doubts and bashing are beginning to fall away. Sure seems like they have. Oh, BTW, the Twins are a very, very good baseball team.
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- miguel sano
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Observations as the Twins Complete a Sweep of the Royals behind Smeltzer's Gem
DocBauer commented on Brandon Warne's blog entry in BW on the Beat
Surprised nobody commented here. It was a very nice piece! I guess they were too busy on the post game thread. I think the jury is still out on Smeltzer. Just to SSS at this point. And any pitcher who doesn't have good/Great velocity or a killer breaking ball is always going to be questioned. Deservedly so. But the true art of pitching is location, disrupting a batter's timing and view-plain. Smeltzer seems to have the ability to due those things. As much as we can argue SSS, we can also argue youth, inexperience and inconsistent playing time at the ML level with his Rochester shuttle trips as a reason to also expect him to continue developing and performing well. I think it's 50-50 the Twins make some major move in the off season for a top rotation arm to join Berrios. Regardless, at least 1 of Gibson, Odorizzi and Pineda should be back. If they don't make that bold move, I'd say at least 2 are back. I just don't know about said major move AND bringing back 2 of those guys but I'd be all in for that! Regardless, I believe the Twins will go to ST next year with 4 spots in the rotation filled, and I don't necessarily mean Perez, though he is a possibility. What I think and believe is 4 spots filled, and the 5th spot open for Perez, maybe another similar flier, Smeltzer and Thorpe, with Graterol a ways away due to lost time this season. This gives the rotation a ton of depth and flexibility and Smeltzer as good of a chance as anyone to fill that 5th rotation spot. Also agree Arreaz just has an IT factor. And he's only going to get better. Not maintain some crazy .350 BA, but improve pop and defense etc. No offense to Gordon, but I think we have our starting 2B for the next several years. Enjoyed a little love for Cave. You look at his somewhat late blossoming, what he did last season, how he has raked at Rochester, and you just know he's not as bad as he's looked with the Twins in limited time thjs season. Lastly, I've always liked Castro and thought we missed him a lot in 2018, and for many reasons. Selfishly, I am hoping there is zero to limited FA value for him next off season and he comes back in a more modest 2yr deal somewhere in the $4M--ish range.- 1 comment
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- minnesota twins
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Great game, great win. Only way I can comment with depth and accuracy is to do the following: 1] Cruz is crazy good! He is far from being done! How could I, or anyone, possibly question his signing, in retrospect to be honest, over anyone else. Healthy, day to day, it could be easily argued Rosario, Kepler or Polanco is the best player on the team. But MAP for the Twins? Cruz, for ALL he has brought. 2] Gibson is good! And I don't just say that as a long time defender of him when some ignore his first two full seasons. I say that as someone who has watched his progress after hitting rock bottom in 2016 and the first half of 2017 before re-inventing himself. His illness, weight and strength loss and missing the bulk of ST is falling away as an excuse for 2019. But his numbers and results are actually still pretty good. We know what he CAN do on a daily performance. We have seen it. Can he round in to full, consistent performance shape the next two months? If he can, the Twins chances suddenly improve a great deal. 3] The bullpen is going to be pretty good from here on out with Romo and Dyson, despite a horrible debut from Dyson. These two veteran guys add a lot, plus tons of experience, to Rogers, Harper and the sudden/wonderful development of Duffy. No clue what is going on with May as he was rounding in to form, get shelled a couple of games, but is suddenly a 1 batter pitcher. Are they working on something? I am happy to see Littell up. What I saw last season was a young SP nervous and not ready and thrown in to some tough spots. The guy I have seen this season is young, but confident and throwing better stuff and may be a fixture going forward. Poppen has electric stuff if he can harness better control. Stashak might be even better. None of these kids were ready then, but I so wish we could rewind the season back a month to keep auditioning them. But there is still two months left to find out who is ready to help on the big stage. 4] Cron is back. And that is good in many ways. 5] Cruz is crazy good and may be the Twins MVP. I said that already? So what?
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- nelson cruz
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Very pleased by the early success of Wallner. Just wish he was going to spend the last month at CR. It would seem a natural progression and end to the year for him.
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- jaylin davis
- wilin rosario
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I don't know, that honorable mention list looks pretty good. Awesome to see what Gordon has done this season. Two straight seasons with a second half fade have been disconcerting. I remain a little leary about that still as his season started late. Has time, growth and continued physical maturation put that concern aside? Or could it still be a concern? Here is hoping for the former. Very encouraged not only by his hitting, but his OB and increased power. I think Arreaz is the 2B next season. And he might just be a fixture there. But in no way should Gordon be dismissed simply because he didn't progress and reach the ML level as quickly as hoped. Not so long ago, it seemed the Twins were not only thin, but borderline desperate for infield help. Suddenly we have Polanco, Arraez, Gonzalez, Adrianza, Gordon and even a young journeyman in Torreyes who has some ML experience and we haven't even had to consider him this season.
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- jaylin davis
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