Mike Sixel

I don't really see them moving forward......there isn't much youth and inexperience on this roster, more like treading water. If they were moving forward, Morrison would be gone, and Austin would be up, for example.

It's partly the bullpen luck they had earlier this year......and a very different 1 run game record.

It's not a crapshoot.....here is one analysis, and the rankings are getting better over time, not worse.... 6. Conclusion The results of the analysis in this study show that prospect ranking on the lists from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and John Sickels is highly correlated with future Major League value. For every ten spots higher a player is ranked on a BA top 100 list, he is expected to produce .7 more WAR in his first five Major League seasons. For BP, a rise of ten spots predicts 1 more WAR; for Sickels it predicts .6. These results support my hypothesis that these publications, which scout and analyze the prospects they rank, are able to identify players who will produce more at the Major League level. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1449&context=cmc_theses There are other studies too, if you are really interested in data about rankings.....

There are about 15 guys on the 40 man we wouldn't miss. Clearly the FO doesn't think much of the AAA pitchers, for example. Every year people say the 40 man is tight and every year it doesn't matter.

I have no issues with hobbies, all work and no play..... Gordon hasn't fallen down any lists yet, most of which were updated in July, so I'm not worried, yet. he's 22 and can't hit AAA pitching yet. No way he should be starting in MN next year, or this, imo. Push Lewis to AA this year, and maybe he can play SS next year in MN at some point, and Polanco can move to 2B. Or (and....really) sign Escobar and put him at 2B until they have a better answer....

It's a message board to talk about the Twins.....

Well played

Great. I mentioned those guys, but I think they think they are contenders. What would you give up? I'm trying to be detailed here....

Yup. Too bad, he has real talent

Go look at the names not on contenders.... And tell me who they can get. I tried.

I don't understand why LoMo is on the roster at this point. But man, that KC lineup looks bad (I wonder if their fans are saying the same about MN's).

every post on this board is kind of silly, imo.

The title reflects my disappointment in options for 2019..... Since I spend so much time offering opinions on other people’s moves, it only seems fair I give others the same chance at mine…..So far, I’ve done a piece on the offense / defense for the rest of this year. Here is what I’d do with the starting pitching this year (and some on next year). First, wow, this is much harder in the long run, but pretty easy this year. You need five starting pitchers, it’s not like you need five third basemen….so the pieces are sort of fungible. That is, they are all playing the same position, you need 8 every year (at least), and you need a good balance of veterans and young players. Second, I think mentorship is really important to young pitchers, so the team needs at least one veteran starting pitcher. Gibson might be that guy next year (and Santana and Odorizzi and he should be this year)….hard to say, but if he’s not, I’d be disappointed. He’s not a rookie….. Third, I’d call up Kohl Stewart as a long RP, that will be covered in another post, this is the last appearance of his name in this post (I think, who knows). Or not. I just remembered about Pineda, they might want him in this role. But I think there is room for both in September. Ya, I’d have Stewart and Pineda finish other people’s starts for sure. Maybe even do 3 innings for the normal player, and three for one of these guys some days. Easy choices for this year: Berrios and Mejia pitch as many games as they can the rest of the year. Both are still learning at this level, and the Twins need continued data on Mejia. Gibson, Odorizzi, Santana pitch normal routines through the end of the month. Injury replacements (if there is an injury, this is the order I’d call them up): Romero and Littell….primarily to protect the options on the other options. I guess Enns is also an option here…..though not my preference. September moves: Call up Gonsalves and Stewart (oops), and Romero and Littell. Replace Odorizzi or Santana with Gonsalves. Skip a start or two for the other, and give to Romero or Littell. I’m not an expert on when players need to move up, or be free agents….but I’m sticking with these names for this year, unless someone tells me someone else needs a look. In the minors, I promote Thorpe and De Jong to Rochester. Do whatever you want with Baxendale or some other starter that isn’t likely part of the future. Now for the hard part, 2019 plans……. My beliefs/assumptions: The Twins are very deep in good SP or good SP prospects for 2019.They have plenty of money to add 1-3 expensive deals.They have the farm system depth to make a trade or two for a great player.I value options, so I don’t want 5 veterans they can’t send down.Locks (without trades, which I will touch on): Berrios Gibson Mejia (legit number 4, imo, real value there) Pineada (dang, wrote up this whole thing having forgotten him….I have no idea what to do with this player right now, since we don’t know health. But if he’s healthy, he’s got a realistic shot to be the third best pitcher on this roster next year, unless someone from AA/AAA really surprises). Near lock: Odorizzi. I understand why some want to move on from him, but there is real management value in certainty. He’ll give them around 30 starts, around league average or so results. If not, he’s only under control for a couple months (from when we “know” he’s bad) and can be DFA or whatever at that point. Plus, someone will get hurt between now and April. However, if I can swing a legit trade/FA signing, he’s at real risk of staying on the roster. I might trade him in August, if they think Pineda is going to be a starter next year, or in the off season. Not sure what I'm doing yet: Santana. He’s old, was hurt most of the year, and he’s old (ya, so am I)......I really need to see his health for the rest of the year, but for me, he’s the most replaceable starter. I also don’t know his influence on the younger players, so I’m going to leave that out of the discussion. But either Gibson is doing that next year, or someone else has to…..because I value options, and the ability to move players around, I probably do NOT bring him back. I’m guessing he’s around a 1 WAR pitcher next year, and I’d rather have room for one young guy, or a FA, or a trade. Given I just remembered about Pineda, I try to trade ESan in August. Trade/Free agent thoughts: This team has the money and farm system to add an elite pitcher. I’m ONLY signing or trading for a pitcher that the team feels is a legit very good player, like 2.5 - 3 WAR or more. Gibson or better. Also, has to be under 32, because this team isn’t a one year deal away from being great, give me a controllable FA, or no FA. Here are the free agents I like…..that will not have their option picked up: Patrick Corbin (29) Nathan Eovaldi (29) (unsure he’s the one I want, really) Jeremy Hellickson (32) (probably not good enough) Clayton Kershaw (31) (depends on health, but i doubt the Twins sign him, so not really an option) Dallas Keuchel (31) (probably the top realistic target, though he’s trending the wrong way) That’s a sad list, imo…...Corbin, Keuchel, Eovaldi...that’s about it for realistic FAs that are likely to be better than other options. For fun, let’s look at the top 50 or so starting pitchers on the FG leaderboard, and see who might be available…. Giggles …. As in, outrageously expensive in terms of prospects, and might be a year early for this type move: When you look at the SP leaderboard, you almost exclusively see pitchers pitching for playoff teams, or the occasional young player on bad team. There just aren’t many available that are on the leaderboard. And I’m dealing for a number 4 type…. Scherzer, if the Nats rebuild. Would cost a lot…..but might be worth it.DeGrom----this is slightly more realistic, but I don’t think they are starting overWheeler---no way they deal him, imo.Snell----well, the Rays do make interesting choices, but I doubt itThat’s about it for trade candidates better than Odorizzi…...yikes! So, it’s hard to see a trade that makes sense for 2019 unless the Mets are sellers, or they pony up ridiculous prices (or both). If you look at the “for sure” bad teams next year, they don’t have much pitching to trade….. The other option is to deal for a minor league player, but I don’t have the strength to do that analysis right now. So, what does 2019 look like: BerriosGibsonTiny chance of a FA, but if so, I think Mejia should be in the deal, as I believe he’s out of options.MejiaPineda or Odorizzi or SantanaOnly Berrios has options in that group. If Pineda is healthy and starting I do NOT keep Odorizzi or Santana around. If he’s not healthy, or not starting, I keep one of those two around, probably Odorizzi, but that’s up to the FO and others to know the clubhouse….. Fifth starter is likely Romero, with the following depth: Stewart (nope, he’s traded or something)De JongGonsalvesLittellEnns (probably left unprotected)ThorpeSomeone I am forgetting.I just don’t think there is a player worth trading for, that will be realistically available. Frankly, I’m disappointed I can’t find a FA or trade partner, so if you have other ideas, post ‘em! edit to add: I really want them to piggy back with Stewart and Romero following someone (not each other) so they pitch every week in September. IMO, they need the data. final add: If they want to move Romero to the bullpen, to open up space for a RP or Pineda, I'm cool with that, I think, but am not sure yet. Thought experiment..... oops, one more edit: Trevor May is traded or a RP for me.

all true, but I think they know more about baseball than me....doesn't mean we can't question them though, and sometimes be right when they are not.....

I agree that they won't, and I think I agree they shouldn't....but I'm not sure. That said, if they don't sign someone to huge dollars, I have no idea where the money is going next year. There are't that many FAs that are better than what the Twins have.

I'm less of a fan of the current game than some past game I can only barely recall at this point. I too would like to see more balls in play, that's when stuff happens. BTW, welcome to the site!

There are few things I care less about than any HoF......but I just watched Moss' highlight reel....goosebumps.

agreed. Just another example of how important luck, and things out of our control are, to success and failure at work.

If they aren't going to give them a look.....not protecting Chargois and Rodrigeuz look like REALLY bad moves.....

Winning does increase next year's attendance. I wonder what their data tells them about marginal wins in a "lost" season. So many questions we'll never know the answer to......

that's the "don't question the FO, don't even bother posting" response......if we can't question the FO, TD should shut down. Or not. Maybe a site that never questioned the team would be really popular.

How much more money do you think they'd make with Dozier still on the team, and let's say, winning two more games than they otherwise would, than they will now? And, will that money make any difference to their budget next year? I'm guessing that it wouldn't make any difference to next year's budget, but I could be wrong.

the people in the prospect business were fans, largely, that started working in baseball (either in a clubhouse or online) and are still fans of the game, but not of teams as much as they used to be. That's from meeting some, chatting with some, and reading them. I'm not sure how that is relevant..... If I wasn't a fan, I wouldn't be here all the time, but most here would say I'm too into the metrics to be a "real" fan. Not sure what that means to you.

I pretty much said the same thing.....but post after post on this site is saying the Twins are smart because they did not sign him at all, not because they offered only 5 years.

If I have the energy, there will be a post about that last part....