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DJL44

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Everything posted by DJL44

  1. DJL44
    Great. No scholarships for Martin, Helman, Lee, Julien and Keirsey.
  2. DJL44
    But there are only 16 position players on the 40 man roster and one is a catcher. There is no way in hell they get through the season with just 16 position players. Buxton is going to get hurt. They're one additional injury away from calling up Anthony Prato or Carson McCusker. A retread MLB vet is probably going to be better than Prato or McCusker.
  3. DJL44
    Martin had a .469 OBP in St. Paul. Keirsey had a .368 OBP at the same level. If he wants more opportunities than Martin, he needs to hit better than Martin. This team doesn't pick players based on their glove.
  4. DJL44
    That batting line is heard of quite often in AAA. It's not that impressive. I also think you're overrating Keirsey's glove in CF. He's an adequate defensive CF.
  5. DJL44
    Who is the next man up? McCusker? I like Keirsey as AAA depth but putting him on the 26-man roster with little behind him in the minors could kill their season. They played 10 different people in the outfield last season. Buxton will miss 60-80 games. Kepler, Kirilloff and Margot are gone and they played 291 games between them. Castro is needed more in the infield with Farmer gone. There are 350-400 games at OF/DH left to cover between Rodriguez, Martin, Keirsey Jr and Helman. It would be great to find someone better than Martin to give 120 of those games. Emmanuel Rodriguez can play CF. If they're going to give anyone new 300+ at-bats this season I hope it's Rodriguez. I would like to have another OF on the roster so they don't have to depend on Rodriguez, Helman or Keirsey. I would probably call them up to the majors in that order. Buxton is injured often enough that Keirsey should still get 150-200 plate appearances.
  6. DJL44
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained_pitch.shtml xRA_def = (BIP_pitcher)/(BIP_team) * TeamDefensiveRunsSaved Then they adjust for park factors and finally adjust to make starters look worse than relievers.
  7. DJL44
    We used to care about batting average, then Branch Rickey figured out something better. He published it in 1954 in LIFE magazine. Goodby to Some Old Baseball Ideas Was Branch Rickey the Father of Sabermetrics? « The Captain's Blog
  8. DJL44
    There is an adjustment for team defense. This can distort the end result if you have a flyball pitcher pitching in front of a team with the best infield defense, for example.
  9. DJL44
    Here's a good preview article Rule 5 Draft Preview: Which Prospects Will Be Selected?
  10. DJL44
    No, the HR robbing clip didn't require that much range. That ball was in the air a long time and he was waiting to time his jump. The spread out diving catch happened because he was a tick late running in on the ball. The best CF make that catch without diving. It isn't a slump. His range is in the 5th percentile (95% of outfielders are better) because his jump is 2 feet below average. He is a great athlete who reacts WAY too late. I think that he can improve, but it will take 1000 reps (or more). I don't know how much he can improve because he's already 25 years old and has been a professional outfielder for several seasons. It might be an undiagnosed vision issue. Austin Martin Stats: Statcast, Visuals & Advanced Metrics | baseballsavant.com
  11. DJL44
    Kyle Higashioka contract at $6.75M per season sets the market rate for Christian Vazquez.
  12. DJL44
    I would love Keirsey and Helman to be the AAA depth we know they'll need to make it through the season. They're perfect to bounce back and forth between MLB and AAA as needed.
  13. DJL44
    One of my least favorite musical genres
  14. DJL44
    This is blernsball, not baseball.
  15. DJL44
    Is that what we're hoping for? Slightly better than Manny Margot? I want an outfielder that can help them win games.
  16. DJL44
    The typical drop from AAA to the majors is 150-200 points of OPS.
  17. DJL44
    Austin Martin has the athletic tools to play outfield. The first clip actually shows you why he's been so bad. See how long it takes him to react to the ball after it was hit? Martin had the worst reaction time to the ball after it is hit in all of MLB. It destroys his range despite his speed. He's also very inconsistent and misplayed several outs into hits and singles into doubles. There were several plays where it was a total clown show.
  18. DJL44
    He's a downgrade on just using Miranda
  19. DJL44
    Neither Keirsey nor Helman has produced in AAA like they belong in MLB. An 800 OPS in AAA is not impressive.
  20. DJL44
    That would mean they got more power out of his bat. 250 HR in 2000 games is 1 every 8 games. 1 every 12 games is only 166 HR. That's the difference between Ken Singleton and Claudell Washington.
  21. DJL44
    I think he'll get 300-450 PAs even if he starts in AAA. They are going to start him in AAA to gain the extra year of team control.
  22. DJL44
    I would line them up: LF - Larnach, CF - Buxton, RF - Wallner, AAA - Rodriguez, 2B - Castro, DNP-CD - Martin I would like another outfielder to give Emmanuel Rodriguez at least a month in AAA, move Castro to 2B and keep Austin Martin off the 26-man roster. If Martin is on the roster, then they have room for another outfielder. Ramon Laureano, though he wasn't mentioned in the article, is a better option than Austin Martin. They could also make a trade to get themselves an outfielder. I agree that the three guys mentioned in this article are all bad fits. Hays is the best fit, but he will find someone willing to pay more than the Twins have available.
  23. DJL44
    Jenkins is 1 every 12 games at the moment. This is why the Twins coaches ABSOLUTELY need to keep working with him to get more HR power out of his swing. It is hard to find a good comp for a LF with a long career with that little power - Ken Griffey Sr played 50 years ago. Melky Cabrera?
  24. DJL44
    There are a thousand players who can make that same claim. I agree that if Jenkins is as good as we all hope, the Twins will be forced to trade him in his 5th season with the team, if not sooner.
  25. DJL44
    Keaschall is quite likely to suck if sent directly to MLB in 2025. We already know Martin sucks. Eeles can't play CF. They need to get another outfielder who is BETTER than those guys. I agree that two of the three guys listed in this article also suck. That doesn't mean they should go into the season depending on Double-A talent. Nearly every outfielder in MLB made one really good play last season. Making one good play does not make a player a good defender.
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