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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    When did I ever suggest teams don't need elite players? I have given may examples and I would guess all of the examples have elite players. The question is how were the other contributing players acquired because we know from examples like the Angels or even this year's twins team that a couple of ewlite players is not nearly enough. You are reaching a silly conclusion in order to support a narrative instead of actually looking at the hard facts I provided. It's not an opinion that 44% of Cleveland's WAR came from players acquired as prospects. How often do we hear that it takes an entire roster to win. Therefore, we should ask how all of the players that contributed significantly were acquired should we not? Shouldn't we ask how a team like the Guardians been successful? They do in fact have one elite player that has provided multiple seasons of elite performance. I doubt anyone on this board would suggest he is not a huge part of their success. We also all know from examples like the Angels that a superstar or even two are not nearly enough. Shouldn't ask how the most successful modest revenue teams assemble enough talent to contend. Why ignore all the other information that tells us how they were successful? BTW … The Guardians have had a few players other than Rameriz over the past decade contribute 4 WAR to playoff teams. Kwan, Gimenez, Sanatana, Bieber, and Clevinger all had one 4 WAR season. Lindor, and Kluber had two so they had a total of 9 players reach 4 WAR in 5 seasons. 5 of the 9 were produced by players acquired as prospects, the others were drafted. They no doubt would not have been successful without Rameriz, Do you think they would not have been successful had they not acquired several other key players as prospects?
  2. Major League Ready
    Think back to the free agents that had the most support here. Hoskins was the bat and Montgomery was the arm. We would not have been any better. Yes, they should not have dialed back the spending but the assertion that spending would have made a big difference is not necessarily true. Santana was actually better than Hoskins and Montgomery sucked. Had they made those two popular moves they would have been worse.
  3. Major League Ready
    You need to elaborate because I am not sure what you are getting at. Are you suggesting that other modest revenue teams that reached the playoffs did so because they acquired players that produced 4 WAR? If the other Brewers teams I listed we ca look at other successful franchises and determine the relative impact of trading for prospects. In the past 25 years, the Guardians have had seven 92 win teams and the Rays have six. Players acquired as prospects produced 40% of the Rays WAR and 44% for the Guardians. How many of those teams do you suppose make the playoffs without the players they acquired as prospects?
  4. Major League Ready
    The Brewers won 92 games in 2023 and traded Burnes that winter. The next season they won 93 games. The two teams were not in remotely similar situations which is why we are discussing if a rebuild is the best idea. We would not be having that conversation had the Twins won 92 games.
  5. Major League Ready
    They had exactly one player eclipse 4 fWAR last year. Were all of the other players irrelevant to producing 97 wins? They had two 4+ WAR players in 2024. (Contreras & Adames) Both acquired in trades. Contreras 2023. Contreras has less than 600 ABs when acquired and had produced a total of 2 WAR so he basically had Julien's pedigree when acquired. Even Yehlich has not produced 4 WAR in the past 6 years.
  6. Major League Ready
    Cleveland, Tampa, and Milwaukee have been sustaining success by routinely trading established players for prospects. The 2025 Brewers had 13 players with 1.5+ WAR. 7 of them were acquired by trading established players. Their top 3 SPs by WAR were all acquired in trade. I think it's very reasonable to say that trading Ryan / Lopez and perhaps Buxton would have a good chance of producing well above average major league players. The Twins will have that much less talents for 6-7 years post 2027. That's the cost. If the gain is a couple of years of very good teams but I don't think it's reasonable to believe marginal improvements to a terrible team will produce a playoff run.
  7. Major League Ready
    Could not agree more. So many factors screamed rebuild. Let's start with they are coming off a season where they were among the very worst in the league. They only have 2 years left on the couple of good assets they have and they are not willing/able to spend what it would take to upgrade this team. We also really need a couple more impact prospects if we are going to seriously contend in the next several years. Modest improvements won't cut it. They have a major rebuilding of the BP required and several SPs who are candidates to transition. That takes time. They need to invest a lot of innings in guys transitioning. The also need to evaluate several OFers. That's also an investment in playing time. They have three great prospects near ready but not immediately ready and they have a couple guys in Roden and Martin that deserve a look. They have a great SS prospect near ready. They also have several young SPs ready or near ready which also requires investment in terms of allocating IP. That's a lot of pieces that need upgrading. Pretending to compete and fitting prospects instead of committing will significantly diminish the opportunity to make meaningful improvements in the team/ What's really frustrating is they could be a very interesting team by the start of 27 if they would commit to building a winner instead of the same inability to commit that has made us perennially mediocre or worse.
  8. Major League Ready
    As you say, if the rumors are true, they are plugging the biggest holes which are the BPO and 1B. SS is obviously week as well but they are not signing a free agent if they believe in Culpepper. That would make no sense unless they are willing to spend a lot more for the next several years. If they can shore up the BP and inject Culpepper and Jenkins fairly early in the year, they could have a pretty good team the 2nd half. Assuming of course Culpepper and Jenkins make the jump successfully and they shore up the BP. Shoring up the BP to the point of contending by spending $10-12M is not going to happen unless a couple of the guys transitioning from starting are great. This plan looks destined to be a fringe playoff team. Based on the "rumors" this seems to be the goal of this organization.
  9. Major League Ready
    Clemens is at least as good both offensively and defensively. What would be gained. Lee should get a chance to prove he can be better than he was last year. However, his best role on a team with a real shot at contending is probably utility infielder.
  10. Major League Ready
    Let's sum this up. Move a good 3B defender with a wRC+ of 85 to 1st base to replace a guy with a 98 wRC+ so that you can put a guy with a 81 wRC+ at 3B. The end result is an entire infield of below average hitters and you have not improved the defense in 3 of the 4 spots. Of course, you don't just go and get a SS that can both defend and hit. Plus, apparently, you have the best player (Keaschall) on the bench. This does not sound like a recipe for success to me. Sounds like a recipe for mediocrity at best.
  11. Major League Ready
    We have a difference of opinion on when Culpepper will be ready. I believe he is near ready and could be promoted by the halfway point this year. The other difference is you are trying to make the most of this year. I would argue that trading away our best SP for a 1B would not make us any better but that's not the point. My interest is in building a real contender. IMO, it would take dramatically increased spending, great health, several players improving, and a couple trades to get this team to be a fringe contender this year. There is always the risk a rebuild does not work out. That said, I like our chances once Culpepper, Jenkins, and Rodriguez get a shot. I like those chances even better if we could add a couple really good prospects to mix via trading Ryan and Lopez as well as the 3rd pick next year. Hopefully, there is a standout college player that can be here by 28 along with Tait. Get a MLB ready middle infielder by trading Ryan and start the 2027 season with that player plus Culpepper as middle Infielders. Keashall and 1B, Lewis at 3B. An outfield of Buxton / Jenkins and two of Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Roden / Martin. That has the potential to be a much more talented and athletic team. Add a couple more prospects in by trading Lopez at the deadline this year, Tait could be here by mid year 2027. Spend 2026 transitioning SPs to the BP and that problem is greatly diminished by 2027 as well. The 2027 team could be pretty darn good and by 2028 they should field a team with a real shot.
  12. Major League Ready
    Lee is never going to be a good defensive SS. Play him there until Culpepper is ready. Trade Ryan if you can get a very good / major league ready or near ready middle infielder and move Keaschall into a 1B/OF role. Now you have a great / cost controlled INF for the next 6 years.
  13. Major League Ready
    Thumbs up, you actually showed your assumptions and did some accounting. The norm here is to take a position that the Pohlads are cheap while offering absolutely nothing to back that position. I spent a few hours a couple years ago doing what you did in terms of trying to piece together the financials. I came to the same conclusion as you.
  14. Major League Ready
    I have been critical of their lack of focus on athleticism for a long time. So, I agree with you in part but a lot of guys failing to stick at SS is the norm. They picked a guy (miller) that could definitely stick and he could not hit. They guys that are sure to stick and are great defensively is a very small subset. I think there are a lot of guys picked that every teams hope they can make into a major league SS with the knowledge these same guys with a good bat can play good defense in a different position. That's a lot better than a guy who can't stick at a corner OF spot because the only spot for him is DH. Point being there is a good fallback position for a failed SS which is why so many of them are drafted. It would be interesting to see the number of SS drafted compared to other positions.
  15. Major League Ready
    Not factually wrong. Just fails to consider the odds of a player drafted as a SS remaining a short stop. If two guys have a 15% chance each, the odds of one of them making it is 30%. You can make the very simplistic conclusion that Falvey has had zero success but that requires you ignore the fact that most players drafted at SS end up playing different positions. You have to ignore the fact that these players are drafted because SS are generally the best fielders/athletes and it is expected many of them will play a different position if they ever make it to MLB. When I look at Lewis and Lee, I certainly don't come to the conclusion Falvey can't pick guys that can play SS because I doubt that was a major consideration when drafting them. Lee was considered to have slipped to #8 and was considered here and elsewhere to be a good value at 8. Frankly, I have never liked him and have said so before he ever got to the majors but nobody here was complaining about that pick. Should they have picked someone else if they were unsure Lewis could stick at SS. I don't think so. I am pretty sure they always had doubts Lewis would stick but his athleticism would allow him to play another position well and everyone believe his bat would play. If the Falvey sucks conclusion makes you feel good, knock yourself out but it's a very simplistic view.
  16. Major League Ready
    I don't think they ever believed Lee would was a SS. However, if the odds of one of them being a SS is 10%, why would you be surprised that 2 attempts did not produce a SS. Seems the problem is your math.
  17. Major League Ready
    What percentage of players that make it to the big league that were drafted as a SS become stick at SS? Anyone know? My guess would be 15% and that might be high.
  18. Major League Ready
    Caraballo received a $150K signing bonus last year from the Giants so I would guess the Twins have no problem paying $100K to sign him.
  19. Major League Ready
    You might be right in terms of superstars but let's be realistic. How many players have the twins had in the past decade that put up 6 WAR like Cain did in 2015. If we take a more encompassing look at roster building, the modest revenue, trading for prospects is extremely important. Take the 2025 Brewers for example. If we look at the top 50% of the 2025 Brewers roster (top 13) by WAR, 3 were drafted, 1 (Yehlich) was acquired as a proven player, 2 were international draftees, and 7 were players acquired as prospects. Look at the 99 win 2023 Rays. two-thirds or their WAR was from prospects acquired in trade. The 2016 Guardians team that went to the WS produced 44% of their WAR from players acquired as prospects. This percentage from prospects acquired in trade is about average for the Guardians over the past 20 years. Same is true for the Rays. We hold them up as an example but don't want to follow their lead.
  20. Major League Ready
    I don't understand. How did they make money on this pick?
  21. Major League Ready
    Only one team in the bottom half of revenue has won the WS in the past 20 years. That would be KC in 2025. Their best player as well as their starting SS were acquired by trading Greinke. If we want to look at a larger sample, we can look at a more realistic measure like making the playoffs. If that's the measure, you will find that trading for prospects has produced almost as much as drafting. Cleveland and Tampa would have 1/3 of the number of playoff appearances without having traded for prospects. Last year's Milwaukee team also had several prospects acquired in trade. I do agree the chances of a trade meaning a WS win are very small but the chances trades contribute to getting in the playoffs with a team that has a real shot are very significant.
  22. Major League Ready
    I wish I could bet on an over/under of 82 wins as constructed but they won't be "as constructed".
  23. Major League Ready
    We all have our opinions as to how many games they would win "as constructed". We also have an actual performance record for one-third of a season "as constructed". They performed at a 57 win pace so how do you come to the opinion that they are an 80-win team? That's a very large gap. The only way to come to that conclusion is to assume, several mediocre performers become markedly better, the acquisitions you suggest work-out extremely well, Ryan, Lopez stay healthy and a couple other guys step-up because Ober did not look like he is part of the solution, and everyone stays healthy. Hey, it can happen which is the cool thing about baseball for fans. However, a front office managing to these assumptions is incompetent unless of course you get extremely lucky.
  24. Major League Ready
    Unless they are willing to spend at record levels, investing good prospect capital in this team would indicate they are either incompetent or perfectly satisfied to put a mediocre product on the field year after year. I am not saying they won't trade good prospects and not spend but it would be to appease fans because it certainly is not the best strategy if they want to actually contend. I have wondered if people were right about their lack of desire to build a serious contender. This off-season will make it clear if they are satisfied to be a perennial fringe playoff team.
  25. Major League Ready
    Good point on visibility through sales tax records. That would be $41.50 per person so that's a pretty viable indication of the average ticket price. It's the other half of this equation (concessions) that's a not so clear. In this discussion, concession revenue has been approached as if the Twins get 100% of the revenue. Delaware North is their concessions partner. What percentage do they get and of course there are product costs although gross profit margins have to be 80 plus percent, I would assume the staff are employees of Delaware North. My guess is the Twins take a percentage. That would make it transparent between teams for calculating the revenue split.
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