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I am warming up to that idea.
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Just think about what Chicago is asking for Cease who has 2 years of control vs Gilbert with 4 years of control. They are not going to get their ask IMO but Lee and Wallner does not seem even remotely close given the ask for other top SPs. Why would Seattle trade Gilbert unless it was an absurd overpay?
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- pablo lopez
- bailey ober
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bWAR values him higher than fWAR which was 1.5 last year and 1.8 the year before. What probability will another team put on him producing at 2021 levels? Make that deal if a team believes he can produce at that level. I completely agree he will bring back something decent but looking at it from another team's perspective, what would you give up? Is it a 50FV prospect? I really don't know what to expect. I hope it's good because I think the odds are high that he is traded unless the offers are really bad.
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- jose miranda
- alex kirilloff
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I think we can say with absolute certainty that not a single person posting here thinks the Twins should or will trade away Polanco for nothing. However, Polanco is coming off back to back mediocre years. How would you quantify a good return? I honestly am not too sure what they can get.
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Good players get traded quite frequently. The team doing the trading away always believes they are making their team better now or in the future. Sometimes the return is great and sometimes it's not so good. Arraez was traded with a career 123 OPS+ at age 25. That turned out fine so far. The Marlins got squat for Yelich. They also traded 2 years of Marcell Ozuna after he produced an OPS+ of 149 the prior year. He was in his prime at age 27. His OPS+ the next two years he produced an OPS+ of 106 and 109. The Marlins got 6 years of Alcantara and Gallen in return. If it's such a bad idea to trade an established player, why do so many people here insist that we should be able to trade for them?
- 58 replies
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- jose miranda
- alex kirilloff
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I think there are 6 players that are essentially locks at this time. Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Alcala and Funderburk. Who is going to beat them out based on spring training? I would take Staumont out of this category only because of the uncertainty that accompanies thoracic outlet surgery. Varland is the wildest of the wildcards. He is the next best option but he is also the next best option in the rotation at this point. Hopefully, the Twins pick up a good SP and Varland is in the role Ober played in 2023. I don’t think Sands, Winder or even Balazovic are longshots. Any of them would be fine holding down the last spot in the BP to start out the year. Spring training might actually be a competition for a couple spots. Canterino and SWR are high upside guys that they are going to want to nurture in the minors. SWR still needs development and I would think the team wants that done at the Milb level. Canterino does not have much left to prove at the Milb level but he also has not seen much game action in a long time. Letting him prepare for a couple months at AAA seems like the prudent route.
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- jorge alcala
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Snell has had 2 great years in his career but he has been mediocre for 4 years straight until he had a huge 2023. I can't imagine Snell taking a 1 year deal after the year he put up in 2023. Plus, demand for pitching is very high. His agent is out there trying to convince teams he will be closer to the 2023 version. Because of that demand, I think someone is going to gamble on him. I doubt anyone is going to meet his current demands but one of the big revenue teams will take a chance and give him a 5 or 6 year contract.
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- jose miranda
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It could be worse. We could have signed Bumgarner or Strasburg.
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When he broke out in the minors, I remember an article that pointed toward a better approach as being a big part of his improvement. Then, I noticed when he was s struggling that his discipline had diminished. The good news is that can be fixed.
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- jose miranda
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It says within the body of this article that the projected salary is $127M so what's your point? You are all fired up because they spinning a scenario that they are spending aggressively. The Twins are spending roughly the same but somehow the dbacks are heroes and the Twins are cheap. You are not interested in a factual representation. You just want to bitch.
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Not a bad solution if Julien can play the OF but they did try him there in the minors as I recall. As bad as he was at 2B, you would have to believe they were not encouraged with what the witnessed with him in LF. IDK if Lewis is dead set against play in the OF but moving him to the OF is much better scenario. Lee is likely better than Lewis at 3B. Lewis is likely better than any of our other LF Options and Julien is likely the worst of our LF options defensively.
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He already is average at one position (2B) but a lot of people apparently are unwilling to acknowledge that he has improved. We all hoped he could become average at a position. The young man worked hard and accomplished what we hoped for. Now, some people want to ignore what happened and move off the position where he has become competent. Statcast - Edouard Julien
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I can understand that you read something you thought was meaningful. However, If you check a source that provides all the details you won't find yourself responding with "huh". Diamondbacks 2024 Payroll
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The Diamondbacks also started $37M below the twins 2023 payroll and that included $18M in dead money from Bumgardner. They now project to spend $128M. You are seeing only what you want to see.
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They have the exact same career wRC+ of 111. Their OBP is the same. Polanco 20 pts higher average but Suarez far more HRs. Even the old stand by stats suggest they are very equal offensively. I know defensive metrics leaves some room for doubt, but Suarez is a fair amount above average and Polanco is slightly below average.
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It seems to be a reasonable omission because Lewis is the star people come to see. He has all the intangibles. Fans love this guy for good reason. It just seems very unlikely they would trade him. Plus, who's to say Lewis does not move to 2B. Perhaps his athleticism would be even more valuable at 2B. Who knows, the OF still could be a possibility as well. Also, if Lee can play SS, he can definitely play 2B. I think it's all moot because they are trading any of these guys this year. Circumstances can and likely will change by next year but for now neither guy is going anywhere unless it's for a very good cost controller SP and the odds of that are low.
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That's pretty simple. Julien was a rookie with a weakness that he worked on. His defense was bad but it was very obvious he got a lot better. The eye test showed it and this was consistent with Statcast. The way to measure Julien's defensive ability is where he ended up not where he started. For some reason you insist on ignoring his improvement?
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Lots of angles to look at this one. IDK if their plan was to have Solano be the short-side platoon. Seems like it would make much more sense for farmer to be the short side of that platoon. Regardless, they found other people to take those ABs and Julien only took 46ABs against LHP. I think that they will give Julien a shot a LHP but if he fails while crushing RH pitching, I believe they will be able to distribute his ABs between Farmer, Miranda, Martin, Severino, maybe Prato or even Buxton as a pinch hitter. Julien is the better hitter against RHP and Polanco has a career .96 wRC+ against LHP. That's not very hard to replicate with platoons especially given Polanco is a below average fielder at this point.
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Suarez produced 7.3 fWAR over the past two years. Polanco produced 3.3. Granted, Suarez played 312 games but availability does provide value. Suarez has also produced 3.9 fWAR or more in 4 seasons. Polanco has one such season. I think it's a reasonable comp.
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Lee had an OPS of .603 against LHP last year. Julien's was .649 in AAA.
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I don't think most people that are saying pump the brakes a little are being overly critical. What I see is people saying he does not have elite tools or elite results so far. Is this not accurate? I think it's fair to say he is a very good prospect, but he has some proving to do before being promoted to the ML level given he was well below average at AAA. Just a sidenote ... Why isn't Severino getting any love? Granted, he has defensive limitations, but his batting stats were quite a bit better than Lee last year.
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- austin martin
- brooks lee
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The twins won't move either unless they get a great return. I don't think the fact that after this year we have $70M invested in 3 players for the next several years and several players entering arbitration is being considered in these discussions. We are going to need all young prearb talent. Now, if a whole bunch of guys pan out and we are so fortunate as to have so much young talent we don't have roster spots, we should reevaluate.
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You make it sound as if a top 10 pick is an automatic all-star. Gavin Cross who was picked right after Lee was below average in High A. Jacob Berry who was picked 6th was below average at AA. Elijah Green (pick #5) was below average in A ball. He is only 20 years old but we are talking A ball. Some here are saying Lee might end up being above average but unspectacular. Not ideal but a lot better than picking Cavaco over Carroll or Stott.
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I hope Lee proves me wrong. The tools and results just don't look elite to me. I see him as a good prospect and an above average ML player but I don't see a dominant prospect or an all-star type player. Look what Wyatt Langford did in comparison. Again, I would be really happy to be wrong. As I was reading the other posts about Polanco it occurred to me that the Twins have a bunch of players becoming arbitration eligible this year and next. More importantly, Lopez and Paddack get big raises. Even with Vazquez and farmer coming off, they have roughly a $20M increase in 2025. This is going to impact how they manage this roster. They have to create some depth from prospects and waiting until the last 2 months of 2024 is very risky.
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- austin martin
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I agree with this take in general. There is always an injury that allows players to be brought up and players get scuffled around to give players who are ready a shot. It certainly is not as simple as player X is ready so move over player Y. The established player has earned that spot and the prospects need to prove they deserve the spot. They generally get an audition like Arraez and Julien. Then once they have shown they belong, the young guys get inserted over guys like Schoop and even Polanco. Rosters are adjusted and teams like the Rays / Guardians and some others take the opportunity to trade established players for prospects to help sustain success.
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- austin martin
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