Major League Ready

It would be great to have Ellsbury but should the Twins think Ellsbury is a good investment if his asking price is so high that Boston does not want him back? Obviously, they know him better than any other team and their revenue is at least $100M more than the Twins. Plus, he is going to ask to be vastly overpaid in his declining years. That is not a good idea for this team. Now, if he would take a 3 or maybe 4 year deal, great. Of course, that is not going to happen. He is going to go to the team that is willing to take a big chance that he won't be substantially overpaid in the last couple years of this contract. If we are going to take a chance, let's do it on international prospects like Abreu or Tanaka where the contract will be for prime years.

Here is another way to look at this persistent money argument. The first assumption is that it would have made enough of a difference that the folks who are complaining here would have been satisified with the return. That is a big stretch. The second asssumption I find even more interesting. If the dollars would have made that big a difference it assumes other teams value the money over prospects even more than the Twins. That's the net of this particular assumption/position.

Part of this is that people tend to draw conclusions with only a portion of the information. For example, why did the Twins hold on to drew Brutera. Remember when we let Joe Benson go and so many people wanted to know why we did not let Butera go? There has likely been interest in Butera from other teams. We don't know these things. Part of it is just the nature of being a fan. We all want the best trades, the best draft, and the best free agents. The desires of being a fan and the thought process that goes with it is often very different than the thought process associated with being in charge of the team. There were advocates of getting Hamilton or Grienke last year. Either move would have been considered incredibly stupid for a tean in the Twin's position by every GM in the major leauges but fans love big aquisitions. Part of it is that very VERY few people have negotiated multi-million dollar deals or had profit and loss responsibility for organizations that produce 9 digit revenues. It's kind of hard to know what you don't know. It's kind of like me telling my builder with 30 years experience how to build a house.

I will second Abreu instead of Morneau and I hope Willingham is traded either in the off-season or at the deadline. I was hoping he would have a strong year and be traded at the deadline this year. No thanks on Johan. I would prefer Sanatana but not on more than a 3 year deal and someone will give him 4 years. I am not a KC fan but I don't understand the hate. He ranks 34th in ERA. .29 points better than CC Sabathia and .39 ahead of Phil Hughes who would likely be a welcome addition.

I would love to see Ellsbury in a Twins uniform. I was hoping they would get him for Santana. I still wonder if the reports about Boston's offer were correct. As much as I would love to have him, he is 30 and it is going to come down to # of years. That's the game agents/players are playing now. Try to get paid for 2-3 years when they are not worth close to what they are getting paid. The bleak outlook for Pujols and Hamilton might temper this a bit but I doubt it and I certainly don't want any of those contracts at this point in our rebuild. Mauer's production will likely be down at the end of his contract. We definitely don't want two such contracts on the books. The FA market is OF heavy so that will help. There are other options.

The more I think about it, Abreu seems like a great move for this team. Let Joe play 60 or so games at first with Abreu at DH. We don't have anyone close. I would love to think Parmalee could take it to the next level but that seems like very wishful thinking. Bring Pinto up when we are sure he is ready and fit him into the mix. If Vargas or Hicks come on bigtime, great, we have trade assets.

I was thinking the same thing. The most important part of the acquisitions teams are making right now is the potential impact of that player in the playoffs. It also does not make sense to me that paying Morneau's salary increases his trade value but that the reduction that occurs as the season rolls on is not important. If your boss tells you that you have no budget or a very small budget for additions, 30 days + playoffs and a couple million less in salary might very well make Morneau more attractive than 60 days + playoffs and two million additional salary.

Isn't that why it is called a "premium position"? I don't understand the dabe on this one. I don't know how anyone can argue he is not more valuable as a catcher. On the other hand, a couple people made the point that the worst case scenario for this team would be if we lost his production all together and ate that big contract. I like the idea of Joe playing 60-80 games at catcher if the concussion risk is deemed to be reasonable.

This is just one man's opinion but that that type of mindset promotes persistent mediocrity. I hope the Twins FO recognizes that playing the three of them that have no part in the future of this team and taking ABs from prospects that could be part of rebuilding the pathetic state we are in today. I would be quite happy if the Twins announced before the start of the game tonight that they have traded Morneau, Willingham, and Doumit. If they got one good prospect for all three, I would say Hallelujah. Let's move on.

I would be very disappointed if we heard the Twins were willing to take the $3M hit because that would be an indication to me that Terry Ryan is not the negotiator I believe him to be. Whoever said other teams have already spent their budget hit the nail on the head. They want an upgrade but don't have the budget. You don't concede a primary consideration like this until the end. You use it it get the other side to up the level of prospect. You want our player and us to pay is a considerable demand. Great ... come back to that request by asking for a better prospect. You never concede that negotiating point early.

Like you, I see no reason to let Morneau take ABs away from any prospect even if their odds of making it at the major leauge level. I seriously doubt the FO believes there is a reason to keep him here. You have to believe Ryan just has not gotten the player in return he believes he can get. We still have a week left before the deadline. The odds are he could go back and execute a deal for the player(s) that have been offered at this point. I commend him for holding out. Morneau looks like he is capable of going on a really nice run right now. If that happens, we likely get a nice prospect. If he does nothing, so what, if Ryan was not getting any decent offers. Plus, who knows, someone could get injured. It looks to me like the primary motivation is to net a prospect with a real chance of playing MLB and that offer has yet to be made. If this were really about money, they would have done a pure salary dump.

A few people keep referring to Morneau's salary as a sunk cost. It is an obligation. A sunk cost would suggest that the expense has already been incurred and thus cannot be recovered. Obviously, this is not true. Morneau has yet to earn and/or be paid. Part of the negotiations center around who will pay all or part of Morneau's salary. His salary would not be approriately defined as a sunk cost until the tradeline passes unless there is absolutely no chance another team would take him and his salary and no player in returrn. A likely scenario is that a portion of his salary is a sunk cost because another team would likely take him if the Twins ate part of his salary and did not recieve a player in return. It is just an educated guess but I would think a couple team would be very happy to take Justin if the Twins recieved no player compensation and paid one-third of the salary obligation. By waiting other teams are increasing the portion of that obligation paid by the twins. I find it interesting that the Twins are cheap SOBs because they won't pay his salary while another team gets the benefit of his services but those teams are not cheap because they won't pay for his services.

We can only hope. They are going to spend some money in free agency this year. This seems like a pretty good option.

Actually, there is not enough information provided to make intelligent commentary on either side of this debate. Reminds me of politics. Democrats and both blame each other for everything they possibly can. In this case, the management haters take a crum of information and spin it into incompetance or that Ryan is cheap. If it was all about money, he would just dump Morneau for a guy that will never make it above high-A. There has to be a team that would take him and his salary if they did not have to give up a prospects with a chance to play at the ML level.

They have plenty of payroll room to make a move for Morales or Abreu.

I think the K rate gets a little too much hype. Just to make the math easy. If the average start is 6 innings, the difference between starting pitchers with a 6K/9 rate and a 9K/9 rate is two less balls in play. I like the idea of Abreu long-term. He and Sano in the middle of the order would be great. However, we have plenty of budget and I could see Ryan going for Morales if he could be signed to a term of 3 years or less. That would be a good bridge strategy to Vargas, Walker, Harrison, etc. Did I read they have played Kepler some at first? Anyway, Morales and Guerrero would be nice and it staggers the spending which will is smart. I would also be very happy with Abreu and Santana for 3 years. Santana is going to get 4 years from someone, so that is not likely to happen. Hughes would be a good consolation prize.

What if you had to choose between Abreu or Guerrero? 1st base is the easiest position to field but Abreu sounds like he could be a beast. Joe could still play 1st for 50-75 games and let Abreu DH. I guess we could do that with Morales too. Morales would be a great sign if we could get him for no more than a 3-year contract. I could get behind Morales and Guerrero as our off-season for position players. Add Phil Hughes or better to the rotation and things are looking up. I can dream, right?

I don't think any of us should be taking just to strong of a stance one way or another. Once again, we have partial facts. Ryan may very well have taken exception with Mientkiewicz privately which would be the appropriate place to do so. I don't think anyone in management should be over critical of players with the media either. The big difference to me is that there has been a pattern of poor behavior with Sano where Mientkiewicz has been the ultimate team guy which he took a little too far here. Personally, I would have let Mientkiewicz know privately that while I fully appreciate that he gives his heart and soul to the team, this was an extraordinarily poor lack of judgment and let the leauge handle the punishment. My guess would be that is probably what will happen. IMO, some of you are going out of your way to criticize management.

Very interesting stuff.

I just looked through the list of 2014 FA starting pitchers and it is really thin. The Yankees will resign Kuroda and Santana is going to get an insane deal because there are so few options. I can't imagine Garza back here and if the reports are true, we don't want him in our clubhouse with a bunch of young players. Free agency is going to be tough. I hate to say it but our best bet/hope is that Diamond and Worley return to form. We can hope that Albers location, decption, changing speeds, etc translates to this level. I guess there has been enough lefties of this type in the past that we can have reasonable hope. The best case scenario would be Meyer finishing the year strong, going to AAA and dominating and getting a mid-year promotion. That's my wish for the day!

Is it too early to wish for specific FA starters? Who is on your wish list and what do you think it will take contractually to sign them? I don't now what to think it will take w/Johnson. How about Santana and Hughes? You have to believe NY will retain Cano but it will mean a nice raise so will they pony-up for Hughes too?

The real question is how good of an idea is it for a team that is the middle of the pack in terms or revenue to spend big to get the biggest name FAs. The Yankees, Angels, and Redsox have a combined payroll of rougly $530M for an average of approximately $177M. Their combined records are 187-173, 14 games over 500. The best record in baseball belongs to the Pirates with a payroll of $66M. The Pirates, As, & Ray's have a combined payroll of $192M for an average of $64M. Their combined record is 205-151, 54 games over 500.

The “don’t spend until we are good” premise gets oversimplified. There is a big difference with International (IE Cespedes) FA acquisitions. Primarily, it does involve contract years where the player is very likely past their prime. The years are also generally shorter and they don’t receive the premium that a proven elite MLB player gets. There is actually a reasonable chance the player is somewhat of a bargain (Darvish) With elite FA pitchers, you have two forms of risk. The first is that they never perform at the expected level. History tells us that risk itself is pretty high. Santana and Zito who’s contracts are ending this year are current examples. The killer with elite players is that the norm has become to extend the contracts year such that the last 2-3 years are likely to be substantially below the level of play that makes them impact players. CC Sabathia appears to be declining substantially and he is under contract through 2017. So, specifically where elite FA starting pitchers are concerned, acquiring a FA SP now very likely results in the best two years of that contract being in years when even with that acquisition the Twins will not be contenders and the final two years when the Twins should contend that SP is likely no longer an impact player. I don’t know enough about Abreu to make a definitive statement but as I said earlier in the thread, this looks like it could be a great fit for the Twins. We could potentially have a freak show line-up if he lives up to the billing. I general I think they have the budget and they should be very aggressive with domestic FA players that can be acquired on contracts of three years or less. 4-5 years for Abreu if the Twins are confident his skills will translate to MLB. On the other hand, I think the absolute dumbest move the Twins could make would be to acquire pitching that requires a contract greater than 3 years. I could see going 4 on Santana or maybe even Hughes because they should be able to perform through the ned of the contract and we will have the budget for the next 4 years.

I don’t think wins and losses is probably the best way to judge this season. The questions is wheter or not the team is positioned to be improved in a sustainable way. On the plus side … Gibson should be a boost to the starting pitching staff Deduno looks like he will be a decent middle of the rotation starter The bullpen looks very solid Dozier and Florimon have greatly improved the defense up the middle. Dozier looks as if he has developed offensively and can sustain it. Arcia looks promising. Hick’s defense is good and we have reason to believe he will get better. Dozier is a reasonable lead-off option until a better option arrives. Mauer has been Mauer and will likely remain Mauer. Andrew Albers might just be a reliable middle to back of the rotation starter. On the down side … Diamond who was supposed to be reliable is anything but Worley is a big question mark Meyer and May are still big question marks The free agent market looks worst than last year and based on the performance of last year’s FAs, free agency is not the answer. We have a hole at 1B Parmalee has not performed and we need to move Willingham to DH Net We will likely be better defensively. Improved offense will come down to Hick’s and Arcia living up to their potential. Dozier being the player we have seen since June 1st Willingham bouncing back reasonably well. We might be able to pick-up a FA 1B that would improve the team. Are we a better team defined in terms of will we be better next year comes down to the following. Here is my Top 10 list. Will Gibson be the solid #2 we hope. Will Deduno be able to perform at a level similar to this year. Will Albers be the Diamond of 2012? Will Diamond be the Diamond of 2012? Will they add a Phil Hughes or better? Will Meyers or Pinto contribute in the 2nd half of 2014? Will Hick’s adjust to the ML jump as he did to the other levels? Will Arcia realize his considerable potential? Will Parmalee or Colabello surprise us? Will they upgrade 1B through free agency? Lots of Ifs. The team could actually be a lot better in 2014 or the same mediocre stuff we have been watching. The best case scenario would be quite a bit better. I would like to hear what you guys think about the Top 10 “ifs”.

I have hired hundreds of people and fired my fair share but I just can't come close to a qualified opinion on Rick Anderson's abilities without much closer examination. In other words, being able to observe him directly. Even if I did, it would still be difficult because I don't have the requisite years of professional baseball experience. Anyone who thinks they can make a qualified decision on antecdotal evidence definitely does not possess the leadship skills to be making firing decisions.