Major League Ready

You are twisting (dramatically) the message that those of us who recognize there are not any mid-market or lower teams that even attempt to build through major FA acquisitions. I guess the the whole leauge must just not get it. I don't here anyone saying we can't get competitive. For example, Lohse would have been a great acquisition on a 3-year deal. Unfortunately, that bridge was burned. While you are quick to point out that prospects oftern don't pan out you universally ignore that FA often substantially underperform. (Hamillton, Pujlos, Bourne) Three of the top 4 FA position players have been horrible. Swisher, the 4th has been decent but not exactly a big difference maker. He ranks 16th amongst 1B with a 758 OPS. The Cubs basically tried to do what you are advocating. How did that turn out for them? That "one good pitcher" has an ERA of 4.74. How many wins would we have improved this year if we have employed your approach and got Jackson and Hamilton or Jackson and Bourne?

There is no way around the fact that this team will not be a contender unless and until our top prospects make it here. We are a mid-market team with modest revenue. We can't buy our way into contension. And, we have to get a better performance/dollar out of our players/acquisitions than the top markets. We already have one elite $23M/year player on the books. To add another one right now and have them both likely declining when we are about to contend would be the most irresponsible move TR could possibly make. If we were to make such a move, the timing from an organizational develoment standpoint would be where the Royals are right now. We have enough incremental revenue compared to KC to add a toip tier FA to push us over the top. Doing it now would be for the sake of not sucking next year but at the cost of the ability to add the same level player when we actually which hole to fill and when our team could actually contend via the addition of such a FA.

I watch very little national leauge baseball so someone has to explain to me why Lincecum is a solution to out pitching problem. Over the last two years, his ERA is 4.79. Hughes is 4.63. To put that in perspective, Correia's is 4.19. I realize ERA alone is not a complete measure but it seems to me the logic is Lincecum used to be great so it would be great to have him on our team.

Instead of elite, I should have probably said 5+ year deals. Those are the ones that are likely to hurt the team in the final couple years. Lohse is a good example of a very good player who can bridge the gap until our young players are here in force. 3 years is a reasonable risk, especially now because that contract will be off the books by the time we are contending.

Some of you guys are much better than I am at remembering past transactions. Can you site examples of elite free agents signed by any team outside the top 10 in revenue when that team was rebuilding as opposed to a final compeitive piece (ie Fielder)?

Draft a college SP with the #4/5 pick Determine the budget. Let’s say it is $100M Determine the best way to spend roughly $40M. My first criteria in determining the best way to spend $40 would probably be WAR/per dollar of salary. (Moneyball in a nutshell). The VERY last thing I would do would be to add long-term contracts for players who will be past their prime in the final years of the contract, especially players like Ellsbury with injury concerns. Most likely case scenario is that type of FA acquisition will no longer be performing at an elite level. Worst case scenario is Hamilton, Pujlos, Bourne who underperformed in the 1st year of their contracts and are even more likely to underperform at the end of the term. The argument we won’t need the money for our prospects until 20XX misses the point completely and assumes this is a matter of available funds in the present. In the simplest terms possible, if we sign a major free agent today, he will likely not be an elite player in the final years of the contract. The options are … sign that free agent once the team gets where KC is today or sign him now. Do you want the 2-3 years that FA is likely to be underperforming to be when we are rebuilding as we are now or do you want those years or eroding ability to be when we should be back in contention? Spend the money but go hard after Tanaka or other international FAs that will be in their prime throughout the contract. My fall-back position is the best free agents available on 2-3 year contracts. Kyle Lohse. We have the budget so get aggressive on those FAs. There is a lot of depth in terms of FA OFs this year. I would not rule them out but I would not be outbidding a team with $150M more in revenue than us that also knows Ellsbury the best in terms of if he can stay healthy. No way I move Dozier from 2B until we see Rosario at this level. We have room in the outfield right now so that’s where I audition him knowing I can move him to 2B if the circumstances dictate such a move. I am also not worried about Florimon. We have much bigger holes to fill. Give him next year to see if he develops better plate discipline. He should be league average offensively if he simply learns to lay off pitches in the dirt. I am torn on moving Mauer to 1st but that might be the way to go with the emergence of Pinto. We just can’t afford to have the situation we had with Morneau repeat itself with Mauer.

Let's keep in mind the origin of the question/response was why aren't the Twins doing more to get better. You can't possibly argue that getting rid of everyone so you can suck as a positive example. Miami's situation simply affirms the fragility of a plan to build around free agency. AT least they got something out of it and they might have considered dumping those players as a fall-back position from the start. I am not sure that will serve them in the future free agent market but they got some good young players. Toronto then proved the fragility of the same plan for ateam that was further along. It cost them a chunk of their their farm system to make that mistake. I have no problem at all with Chicago's approach. Just like the Twins, they were really active in the FA SP market. You could make a case the only difference was that TE had an easier time convincing players to come to CHC as compared to TR convincing SPs to come to MN.

We made two pretty significant trades (Span and Revere) for pitching prospects and one current player (Worley). I think most people expected Worley to be a pretty solid middle of the rotation guy. Those were solid moves that differentiated us from teams that were not rebuilding. I am sure Ryan would have loved to make other trades at the deadline this year but what exactly would he have traded on than Perkins? Who was going to bring anything that mattered. We also played prospects hoping some of them would make the leap. This is another difference you ignored. Plouffe, Dozier, Parmelee, Flormon, Hicks, Arcia, Escobar, Hermann, and a whole host of pitchers fall into this category. This is how teams that are not in the top 10 revenue markets rebuild. Even when this worksout it is going to mean more losses so some people are going to complain. It did not work out very well so people are going to REALLY complain. Many people were ready to toss Dozier on the scrap heap. It looks like he will be a darn good asset in the future so something good did come out of this season. Florimon also established himself defensively. There is still a reasonable chance he can be a ML average SS offensively, especially with his speed. Of course all teams are drafting. This tact hardly proves a point. What would make more sense is to comapre the Twins to the other teams that are rebuilding. Are Houston and Miami adding top FAs? I think Houston's payroll is $12M. Are they that incredibly cheap or is a low payroll consistent with a rebuilding team with revenues in the bottom half of the leauge? What am I missing? What arent the Twins doing these rebuilding teams are doing? CHCs have been more aggressive and praised here. So far they have made no more progress than the Twins in the W/L column. Their biggest acquistion (Jackson) has been a failure. We will see if he can make a comeback next year or if his contract is a detriment for the next 3 years. They did hit on Feldman but the leauge certainly did not think he was any more likely to pan out than several other FA SPs. They whiffed on Baker too so you can hardly look at what they did as a model of success. I think there is plenty to complain about but FA SP is a quick fix outlook. Our inability to draft and develop pitchers should be the overwhelming complaint IMO. If not for the recent resurgence of the minor leauge system I would be leading the charge to replace the bulk of the Twins FO. They have done such a good job of turning it around that from a distance it looks like they have figured some things out in the drafting dept both domestically and internationally. I am still not completely sold in terms of drafting and development but I have no problem with has happened the past couple years in free agency. It is not even a little bit hard for me to believe TR has an uphill battle getting players to come here right now. We were linked to ejust about every FA pitcher out there last year. It is very easy from a keyboard to say just get it done but another thing entirely when you are in a battle with 29 other teams for FAs, especially when many of them have much deeper pockets or a better opportunity to win right now.

You might be right but circumstances (revenue and other) have changed somewhat substantially. You and others are basing your conclusion on actions that took place when the Twins had just slightly more revenue than Kansas City and the other bottom revenue teams. I have nott seen enough post Target Field to assume anything. The actions mentioned were basically consistent with all of the other teams in a similar revenue position. The only intellectually fair or honest assumptions you can make now would be based on actions since revenues increased which there have been few. Personally, I will wait to see what they do in rebuilding this team until I judge if their philosophical changes matched the increase in revenue. I don’t expect Grienke. I just want to see a change that matches the revenue increase, if that makes sense. What would be fair would be to expect action that reflected a team that has more revenue than those very bottom teams but still significantly less than the top revenue teams. They did sign Mauer to an 8 year $23M/yr contract. That NEVER would have happened in the dome days. They did not resign 2 noteworthy free agents, Nathan and Cuddy. You can’t hardly blame them for Nathan given the circumstances. (age/Tommy John/money and the fact they replaced him for a fraction of the money. I loved Cuddy but you can’t complain the FO does not know how or refuses to rebuild and then complain about letting Cuddy and Kubel go. They got Berios and replaced Cuddy with Willingham who outplayed him last year. Of course, Cuddy is killing it this year but that move was consistent with rebuilding.

Well, yes, the TV money is going to mean more spending. It really could not be a worse year to play in free agency. The question is how exactly it will impact the spending or more to the point, the contract terms. I am wondering if teams might start to say it is not worth it to extends these elite players out. New York is praying they can get out of the final years of A-Rods, deal. Sabathia's deal looks like it could be a real clunker for the next 4 years. The Pujlos contract could end up being an absolute disaster. Hamilton's deal is going to be a real stinker unless he rebounds in a big way. And, of course, there are many other examples over the past decade. We might actually see this trend meet some resistance. That's a BIG might but the failures of LA, Toronto, and a number of specific contracts might finally start to make GMs really reluctant when the term takes players well past their prime. Ironically, that might actually be bad for us because the top markets would not be carrying so much dead weight in the future.

It seems highly unlikely the young core, most of whom are not even here yet, is going to make this team world series compeitors in 2015. Sano will likely be here mid 2014 and Buxton 2015. Rosario might be here sometime next season. Meyer is likely mid 2014 or start of 2015. Now, think about how long it took KC's young core to be ready to compete. Even if all goes well, 2016 is the very earliest the young core is going to compete. The #1 goal for top FA players and their agents is to get a number years where the last couple of years the player is no longer playing at a "top" level. This is no secret. That type of contract makes it impossible to move the player and their huge contract will severly impede any middle of the pack (in terms of revenue) team in going out and adding other top FAs until that contact has expired. History is quite clear in terms of the risk associated with FA SPs across the entire term of the agreement and espeically the last couple years. CC Sabathia is a great example. He opted out of his long-term deal so that he could stretch the number of years out long after the point where he was a top of the rotation pitcher. His decline appears to be here and quite rapid. His ERA this year is 4.78 and 6.08 after the all-star break. I think he is signed through 2017. How would you like to have that anchor when the upcomming Twins core is entering their prime? In my opinion, it would in fact be foolish to add talent in anticipation of the Buxton/Sano and others. It is highly probably the players getting 5-6 year deals will have declined substantially by the time our core has developed. This would be a very good way to lose a couple years where the could have had FA dollars to fill-out a compeitive roster. They do however have a window where they could spend significant dollars on 2-3 or even a 4 year contract for the right guy.

I have been watching the box scores specifically for Chicago, Milwaukee, and a couple others who were close. Milwaukee pulled away this last week as they played head to head. I will be pulling for them down the stretch but it looks like we will be 5th. I am going to be disappointed if a top notch college SP goes 4th if there is not a similar prospect at 5. This pick could be really important to rounding out this team in a couple years. I like our odds of having very good position players by the middle of the 2015 season. We need a SP or two from this next draft.

I don't think it's a mentality. Every team would like to have all 25 guys on the roster be above average to great. Finding those players and paying for them long-term is another matter. If your point is that this should not dissuade them from pursing Abreu, I could go either way. They certainly could share catcher, 1st base, and DH duties among Mauer, Pinto, and Abreu. That could work out great. For me it would come down to confidence level on Abreu. I would rather them spend 30-35M on pitching as long as the contracts are 4 years or less and preferably 3 years.

Doesn’t it all come down to what they want to do with Mauer. If they believe Pinto is for real, moving to Mauer to 1st makes more sense. Our infield looks very good and could be set for the next several years Sano gets here the middle of next year. By 2015 our outfielders are Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, and Arcia. That’s quite a line-up. Buxton Rosario Mauer Sano Arcia Dozier Hicks Pinto Florimon

1A and 1B would be the dismal failure of Worley and Diamond. I was always a bit skeptical on Diamond but if those two produced near expectations we would have had a chance. I say a chance because the middle of the order with the exception of Mauer also failed. Willingham went from an OPS of .890 to .730. Morneau was finally healthy and was still mediocre at best. Doumit went from an OPS of .780 to .700. Plouffe and Parelee simply did not step up. I guess who you blame depends on perspective. Should the Twins have acquired one of the top FA position players? (Hamilton/Upton/Bourne/Swisher) For $36M/yr the Indians got statistically the worst offensive CF in baseball and a 1st baseman that ranks 18th. The other two big FA position players from last year were Hamilton and Upton. Hamilton for 5/125M produced an OPS of 733. BJ Upton 5/75M has an OPS of 572. I am very glad we don’t have any of these contracts on the books. I did not expect greatness from Worley / Diamond / Deduno / Correia but they should have been decent. I blame the FO for Pelfrey. We paid him to rehab at the ML level. Short of Sanchez or resigned with his old team, who should have they went and got. It’s not like anyone saw Colon or Feldman emerging. My first preference would have been Lohse. Unfortunately, that relationship was strained. Dempster would have been my next choice followed by Blanton. Dempster has been mediocre with an ERA of 4.64 and Blanton has been awful. Moving Span and Revere for pitching was smart. Giving Hicks a chance was not a terrible idea for a rebuilding team. Mastroianni was a decent fall-back position and of course he was hurt before the season started. So, I am going to take a very different tact than normally followed here on TD. I am going to blame the players that did not get it done. Short of the Pelfrey decision, I thought the FO made good decisions and the minor league system is in the best shape it has ever been. I am still concerned about scouting and development of Pitchers. Two years ago I would have been firing some scouts and offering a couple scouts from the As and Rays a big raise. Today, I might forgo the firings but I would still be recruiting some scouting talent.

My apologies to Jeremy. I replied to the wrong post. I meant to reply to your post. I assumed it was meant as sarcasm when you said you were happy to see Ryan got payroll under $80M and that you knew he would find a way to get that done.

So, when you see a team like Houston with a payroll of $21M do you just assume their entire motivation is to have the cheapest team possible? Based on your other posts you obviously know plenty about the game. You must understand that a rebuilding team is not going to max payroll. Maybe it's just that I do this for a living but I find this zealous focus on payroll to be a very parochial viewpoint. The Pirates, As, and Rays have an average payroll of just under $66M. That all by itself should be a glaring indication that the keys to success for a team with leauge average revenue or less is not free agency.

Now you are just ignoring logic and the arguments made by the other side of this debate . If the worst team in baseball was up 7-1 on the best team the Yankees ever assembled, they would show the same courtesy. I find it ironic that anyone would find fault in showing respect for your opponent but times have changed. We are now a me instead of we oriented society.

I think we are on the same page but I probably did not leave that impression. I could not agree more they have the room and need to get something done. The only distinction is I believe it would be a big mistake do go beyond 4 years right now and 3 would definitely be preferable. That is going to rule out any elite FA SPs. In theory, a Dempster type deal would fit our needs right now. Of course, he has not been very good this year but that risk will always be present with FA SPs a bit past their prime. Some continue to get done like Kyle Lohse, others slide. I could get behind the acquisition of a top FA if we were KCs position right now. To put that in Twins perspective, lets just say that Sano, Buxton, and Arcia pan out as expected. Let's say just for fun that Dozier continues to play like he has in the 2nd half, Hicks becomes the solid but not spectacular offensive player we believe he can be and Florimon improves a bit to hit 250. That would be the time to go out and take a chance on an elite FA SP. We could also pick-up a Peavy type deal without giving away the farm.

The Twins were also near the bottom of the leauge in revenue for most of the past 20 years until Target field came along. Has Oakland or Tampa Bay signed an elite FA SP? Maybe they have but I don't remember that happening. What I remember is them trading alot of premier talent away because they could not afford to keep them. The Twins could not have afforded to keep Mauer in the dome days. The St. Louis model or perhaps a modified form of the Rays model is what the Twins will need to follow. Has St. Louis signed a premier FA SP? I am asking in earnest. I really don't follow the NL much.

There are at least three four reasons they did not sign a top level reason FA SP. All of them have been discussed here in the past. As a matter of fact, Mackey just discussed this on the air. There are 12 or 14 teams with significantly more revenue than the Twins. Some of them have waaaay more money than the Twins. Somehow this very parochial concept gets ignored on a consistent basis as fans expect the Twins win a battle in which they are significantly out-gunned. When at least 10 teams with far more revenue, how is it a surprise other teams are able to bid more? The system, not the Twins create this situation. That’s why other team sports have salary caps. Point two follows point one. Historically, a high percentage of FA SPs turn out to be very poor deals. Some of them from the very start. The even higher probability is that they fail in the last couple of years of these long-term deals. Look back 5 years at the top FA SPs and see how those deals faired over the duration of the contract. Point three follows points 1&2. The Twins and teams like them in terms of revenue have to get much greater performance per dollar spent and any bad contracts can really limit a team’s options until they are off the books. The effect is even evident in now in teams like the Yankess, Angels, & Blue Jays. Obviously, the Yankees and Angels have a much larger margin of error and are still in trouble as a result of premier free agent acquisitions. Timing – Even if they were to take the chance, now is the worst possible timing. Premier free agent pitchers receive 5-6 year deals. If we were to take this kind of risk, it would make far more sense when the Twins young talent has been established at the MLB level. They are not going to contend the next couple years and the big name free agents are generally just past their peak. Do you want that contract on the books now so that in 4-6 years that pitcher is very likely nowhere near as effective as they are today? Would it make a lot more sense to acquire such a pitcher when he will likely make you an immediate contender for as long as they can maintain their performance level?

He looks like a pretty good value to me. I remember quite a few people advocating for Dempster & Blanton. Jackson got 4/52M. He is 7-15 w/4.91 ERA. Dempster got 2/26.5M. He is 8-9 w/4.79 ERA. Correia @ 2/10 is 9-10 w/4.18 ERA. We could also talk about the long list of guys that got contracts for 50-100% more annually who's numbers are worse, in some cases much worse, than Correia. It's easy to talk about FA in the abstract and say the Twins refuse to get it done. There a re a few problems with that position. First, there really were only a couple FA SPs that there were highly sought after. If there ever would be a correct time for the Twins to go out and sign a $25M/yr FA SP to a six-year deal, this phase of rebuilding is a s far away from the right time as possible. We also don't have the supporting cast, in other words, we have a bad team and that makes it even harder. Sanchez, the other prime taget stayed with his old team. Should we have significantly overpaid for 5 years. Again, not now, at least not on a long-term deal. The vast majority of the others have failed. Nobody expected Feldman and Colon to be great. So, what could they have realistically done? How about the top FA position players from last year. Josh Hamilton 5/125 - 236 .297 .422 .719 Michael Bourne 4/48 - 262 .315 .344 .659 BJ Upton 5/75 - 199 .281 .314 .595 Nick Swisher 4/48 - 237 .333 .392 .726 At least Doumit & Willingham were good in the first years of their contracts. Doumit 275 .320 .461 .781 Willingham 3/21 260 .366 .524 .890 As fans, we have the luxury of complaining when GMs don't go out on a limb and sign high dollar free agents and then also complain when they don't pan out and the team is stuck with their poor performance and anchor contracts.

No need to anything yet. The Twins should not rush Sano. Let Plouffe start at 3rd next year. Worst case, he plays against LHP and acts as a super utility player when Sano arrives. Best but not likely case, he finally puts it together and finds some consistency on both sides of the ball. He becomes a nice trade piece if that should happen. For me, Plouffe is one of the biggest disappointments of the 2013 season. The optimist in me was hoping that a sustainable form of the Plouffe that went on a rampage last year would show-up in 2013. The other is Parmelee but I still have some hope for him.

I don't have access to the article but the summary above does not mention "how much money do they spend". It looks to me like a pure revenue ranking. If that's the case the Twins are middle of the pack in revenue so the ranking of 10 or mid-point on the scale would seem to make sense. Is there additional information that suggests this ranking is based on something more than revenue?

With all due respect, anyone who has done a substantial amount of negotiation with multi-million dollar deals will tell you to presume to understand what went on, what the options were and how this played out from a distance is a real reach. This is a product of the zeal we have as fans. 16 pages of argument... How hard is it to understand we did not get much for a rental of a free agent 1st baseman near the bottom of the leauge statistically. And, the argument we should have traded him earlier because we would have gotten more does not fly either. Have some of you forgotten how poorly he was playing before Aug 1st. His play in July killed our opportunity to trade him before the 7/31 deadline. It's not that complicated!