Major League Ready

Oops! Sorry, I did not realize. However, fast forward a year and a lot of the media is still portraying them as a team about to fulfill their promise. At least that's how it seems to me. Regardless, they are the favorites. We need to fill a couple holes and hope the guys that had down years last year bounce back.

They are not as inexperienced as the media makes them out to be. They have Abreau / Grandal in terms of really experienced vets. Anderson / Moncada both have 4 years experience. Jimenez is on year 3. They traded one of their their inexperienced SPs for Lynn. Of course, they have Keuchel and Giolito has plenty experienced. I just don't see them as this young / inexperienced team they are made out to be.

I did not know of this rule. Got a feeling it's going to be 10,000 in the not to distant future. They probably agreed to raise capacity by a given date as part of the MLB Affiliation agreement.

I think you could make an argument the Twins had 5 in 2019. Garver / Polanco / Kepler / Sano and Berrios had his best season.

Her can state whatever he likes. The only way a team would go along with that venture is if he actually signed one years deals. Any team making a $150M investment is not going along with his statement. You However, you just might have the hook. Promise him a start ever 4 days if he signs for 1 year.

They might be inclined to move Polanco to 2B. I know they played Arreaz in OF but I don't really remember how well he faired there. I also am not so sure they need their utility player to play the OF given Rooker is ready and Kirilloff/Larnach are close behind. Our back-ups for anything more than 1 game might be in St. Paul instead of 4/5th OFers on the big club. Arraez might even be a trade asset if the return was right. He would be quite attractive this year to some teams given he is still on a rookie contract.

Rooker does not have to replicate Cruz's production. They need Rooker + whatever player(s) the acquire with the salary the would have used on Cruz to be greater than what Cruz produces in 2021. They definitely need to resign Cruz If the sum of Rooker and whoever they get with the Cruz money is not a net gain. I am not worried about replacing Rosario's production from the last couple years. He just has not been that impactful and he does not make a defensive contribution. His replacement very well might not be a given a player. It might a RH free agent + Cave and Kirilloff and/or Larnach as the season gets going. IMO, the relative success where offense is concerned will be most influenced by what happens with all the guys who had a down year in 2020 (Donaldson/Sano/Garver/Kepler/Polanco). If 3or 4 of those guys bounce back a combination of a good utility player / Rooker / Kirilloff and Larnach should be a very good hitting team. Ya know Buck looked gook last year before he was hurt too.

That statement is so misguided I don't know where to start. They didn't go far in the playoffs so the solution is to follow a practice that has been horribly ineffective? I would be inclined to evaluate performance/production of their investment. Players acquired as FAs produced quite nicely for us in 2019. The top 8 free Agent RPs in 2019 produced a total of 1.7 WAR. The cost per 1 WAR was $129M. Teams could have thrown darts at FAs for any other position and been much more effective. So, I am going to go ahead conclude that their failure in the playoffs had nothing to do with their failure to land one of the premium RPs in free agency. Actually, had they spent $25M on RPs as many here insisted was a no brainer, they might not have even made the playoffs.

I am coming around to this viewpoint. Partially because I think there could be some relative bargains this year. The big market teams are going to wait on the bumper crop next year. We also have an intriguing international posting. If nothing else a slick fielding SS is a lot of fun to watch.

This sounds like a repeat of the winters before the 2018 and 2019 seasons only there was a whole slew of guys who got paid $8M or more. Those players have collectively produced 1 WAR per $40M spent and I have posted the details here in the past. So, I have a hard time concluding the front office will have "failed mightily" if they decide to invest elsewhere.

I agree. That's why I doubt he is going to be a whole lot better than he has since the league adapted. However, he is really talented and I would not be shocked if he improved. I just would not bet it's going to be this year. Rooker really impressed me with his approach. While it was a SSS, I think the Twins will be comfortable with him and Cave to start the season especially given they have Kirilloff and Larnach on the door step.

What perplexes me about Rosario is that it sure seems like he picks up where the ball is going. In other words, he is not fooled but he swings anyway. At times it seems like he has made up his mind to swing before the pitch is delivered. At least that's what it looks like to me. He would be a 900 OPS guy or better If he made the opposition give him something to hit.

Industry estimates are roughly $3B for the 30 teams combined. The Phillies claim to have lost $145M. Twins were probably around league average.

Grading the trade at this point is pretty tough for me. Alcala is a ML pitcher. However, is he a 7th inning guy or a set-up guy or a closer? IDK. If he is a set-up guy by next year, I will take 4 years of a set-up guy for 1 year of a closer any day. I say one year because losing Pressley for the last couple months of 2018 had no consequence to the team. I really do not find his loss in 2019 all that consequential. The team won 101 games and Pressley would not have made a difference in terms of playoff results. Winning 103 vs 101 games with the same result in the playoff is not what I consider impactful. I am not sure what to think of Celestino. He was very good the 2nd half of 2019. He was one of the prospects I was most interested to follow in 2020. He might be a 5th outfielder or he could be solid starter. Where he lands in those extremes would significantly change the grading of this trade for me. If Alcala is a high leverage RP for 4 plus years and Celestino becomes an average CF, this was a great trade. If neither one of them pan out the opportunity cost was high but the impact is still quite modest.

You and the others you reference are focused on what they have been. The FO is far more interested in what they will be. I share that view. Those who can’t imagine why Kepler is an equivalent offensive player are basing this position on what happened over the entire course of their careers. In other words, the distant pass. That information is not the most indicative of what they will be going forward. Neither player has ever sustained a high level of productivity. Kepler has had one great year. Was that year a break-out year? IDK. Rosario’s career has three distinct periods. By far his most productive period was the last half of 2017 through the first half of 2018. He produced just shy of half of his career WAR during that period. Since the first half of 2018, Rosario’s wRC+ is 97/ Kepler’s is 114. Rosario’s OPS 760 / Kepler 811. Rosario has 51 HRs / Kepler 57. Kepler has also has trended up steadily improving his weakness which if LH pitching with the exception of 47 ABs in 2020. Perhaps this is wht Streamer projects a wRC+ of 105 for Rosario and 113 for Kepler. IMO, it is very clear the league adjusted and Rosario has been unable to adapt to how the league pitches him now. Kepler has been trending up. Both players have over 1,000 ABs in the comparison above so we are talking about a large sample size. Is it possible Rosario will adapt? Sure. That does not change the fact that Kepler has been the better offensive player since the middle of 2018 when the league reacted to Rosario’s dominant play. It's not so much Kepler has gotten better as Rosario has been below average since then. If you disagree the current performance is a product of the league adjusting, you are welcome to that opinion, we will just have to agree to disagree. I also believe that defense and cost has gotten lost in this debate. Consider the defensive contribution as well as cost and Kepler is a considerably more important asset than Rosario.

They had a phenomenal offense in 2019 when all three were starters. Kepler was 6th in WAR among RFers .2 WAR behind Bryce harper. Polanco had .4 less WAR than Lindor and made the all-star team. They were somewhat of a contender. Better pitching and they would have been a serious contender so your position does not make much sense IMO.

I think you were on an interesting path had you compared these players contributions to winning back to back Central titles. However, I don’t know how we can come to the conclusion Rosario lead the 2019 Twins to a division Championship? He was 11th in WAR, not for the entire team, just among position players. His OPS wRC+ was 103. Sano 137, Kepler 121, and Polanco 119. If we are talking about “leading” the Twins, Cruz and Garver were the offensive leaders. 2020 was an odd duck. The only offensive star was Nelson Cruz with a wRC+ of 164. Rosario was at 110 and Kepler 107. A 110 wRC+ and below average defense is not leading a team to a division Championship. I would say the pitching staff led the effort to win the Central in 2020. What if Sano/Kepler and Polanco were arbitration eligible? All three would have been hard calls. Sano the most likely to be non-tendered because that position is easiest to replace. Kepler is 1 year removed from a 4.4 WAR season and he provides back-up in CF. He is also 1 ½ younger than Rosario and had been trending up until this crazy year. He likely would have been tendered a contract. Polanco is probably the most likely to have been tendered a contract because he plays a premium position and he too was great before the Covid season.

Donaldson was not a Twin in 2019 but he was healthy and produced a 900 OPS over 659 AB. He could be a big boost. How about Sano? His OPS went from 923 in 2019 to 757. He was a beast in 2019. Not so much in 2020.

2 keys …. 1) Team spending is going to be a product of how each team assess the impact of Covid on revenue. Dateline did an hour special on Covid Vaccines a couple days ago. Dateline interviewed CEOs of the three companies closest to distributing vaccines. The FDA rules on Pfizer's drug in 2 weeks. IF APPROVED, distribution to font-line health workers and senior care facilities would start immediately. Mass distribution to the general public won’t happen until mid-year. Administering all of those shots will take months so the full impact won’t be felt until the end of the year. 2) Company budgets are a product of projected revenue. Based on Dateline’s report, I would guess the Best case scenario is gate receipts are down by 1/2 which is roughly $60M. Businesses NEVER spend the same when facing revenue reductions of this scale. Neither does any responsible adult when managing personal finances. We can dream but this dream is not coming true.

Above Hendricks and Hand? MLB trade rumors estimates were 4.3-5.7M which is about the same as what they had for Taylor Rogers. What do you think it would take to get him? I am thinking about reworking my plan with him in it.

Apparently not one of the 30 GMs in MLB have your unique understanding of player value. Yes, his enthusiasm has some benefit. It also promotes frequent defensive mistakes, poor base running and a lot of absolutely horrid ABs. They might interpret winners as players like Donaldson who's intensity results in consistent ABs, solid defense and most of all consistent/excellent results. Eddie has had one period (2nd 1/2 of 2017-1st half of 2018) where he has performed above average. The other 80% of his career he has been average of below average but let's not let hard facts distract for understanding not one GM understood Eddie's value. I guess we need to understand when we win 101 games as we did in 2019 that it was Eddie willing us to win even though he was 11th in WAR among position players. Here I thought all of those players that played better than him were the key.to winning.

For starters, I have made a pivotal assumption. Rosario was absolutely fantastic in the last half of 2017 and the first half of 2018. The last half of 18 he played at replacement level and has not been even remotely as good every since. The assumption is the league adjusted. I welcome any other theories if you care to reject my assumption. You are assuming my position is Rosario sucks and Kepler is great. My position is Kepler improved significantly on his weakness which was left hand pitching. Rosario has not adjusted and therefore Kepler has been better offensively. The number are crystal clear if you accept something significant changed after Rosario's exceptional performance from the 2nd half of 2017-1st half of 2018. Add to this Kepler is much better defensively. He can even play an important role in backing up CF and his cost was about half of the arbitration estimates for Rosario. It's not simply Rosario vs Kepler. It's Kepler + $5M to be used toward a SP or one of the better utility guys or a couple BP arms vs Rosario. For some reason this reality is be ignored by many.

We had a front office this resembled these remarks and most people here felt (correctly) the game had passed them by. It's just not nearly that simple and it never was that simple. Team's have become much better at evaluating potential and sustainability and I don't would like our team to among the most sophisticated in their analysis as opposed to the most simplistic.

Career BA is not only not a good comparison it's a very incomplete comparison. OPS or wRC+ are much better measures of productivity. Career numbers are also not the best measure. Eddie was better 3-5 years ago. Problem is the league adapts to players. Some can adjust and others are not able. More recent information is a better predictor. Since 7/1/18-present … Rosario has ABs 1082 ABs and HRs - 51 wRC+ 97 OPS 760 Kepler has 1097 ABs and HRs - 57 wRC+ 114 OPS 811 Perhaps that’s why Streamer’s projected wRC+ for the two players in 2021 is 105 / 113 in favor of Kepler. Let’s not forget defense matters as well which is why Kepler’s war since the last half of 2018 is 7.0 and Rosario’s is a meager 2.2.

I thought about the Simmons scenario and it makes sense. Would have no problem with it. I did not forget Kirilloff. Rooker is the most proven and had already been promoted. Yes, Kirilloff was added for a game but neither Kirilloff or Larnach have proven they are ready. I would add the team is not going to blow a year of control to have him for an extra 6 weeks this year. They could also play Schwaber in this plan until Kirilloff or Larnach proves ready. That would be incompetence and they are not incompetent.