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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    Nice summary! Wish I could write like you. I always appreciate what you have to say.
  2. Dman
    I guess the best memories I have for Duffey were the 2019 season. He was a big part of a pretty good bullpen that year. He had stretches where he looked unhittable K'ing the side in order. He seemed fearless that year just going after hitters. I wish that was the same kind of pitcher he could have been this year.
  3. Dman
    I was little concerned about him last year but the optimist in me had him shaking that off and doing better this year. I never could have imagined my favorite arm would have 10.75 ERA. I thought he had decent velocity, decent movement but maybe I was wrong. I just don't understand how he could 10.75 bad. I could maybe have worked my way to 4.75 or 5.25 but even those numbers would have been disappointing. 10.75 just blows my mind.
  4. Dman
    All Drafts and prospect lists\acquisitions are crap shoots to some degree. So many things can happen from A ball to the major leagues and only a small percentage of guys drafted something like 5% even make it. So yeah you are not wrong a lot of them won't make it but looking at the talent that is there, it is a stronger list than the pitching side IMO. They also just drafted maybe the best college hitter in the draft and several other high contact bats. Odds are a couple of those guys work out. The Twins have a strong young hitting core at the MLB level and guys with good skills behind it. I think they are OK on that side of things.
  5. Dman
    You forgot a few big names like Rodriguez and Jullien and they just traded Steer, CES and two good left handed pitchers which would have changed this list considerably. To your point I don't think they have built a top 10 Farm since they have been here mainly because top picks like Rooker, Sabato and Cavaco didn't work out well and they missed on the international FA like Javier and others. I think the larger point to make is that they haven't really produced much for starting pitchers which is what they were brought in to do. Cleveland has continued to be far more successful than Falvine on the pitching side but then again they have taken risks taking pitchers early and late in several drafts. While the Twins drafts have been balanced they just haven't found enough viable arms. Things looked like maybe they were going to turn this year and with Ryan, Ober Winder set to play key roles things were looking better for the FO but Ober doesn't look like he will ever make it a full season as a starter and given Winders shoulder it doesn't look good for him either. Everyone else has pretty much imploded on the farm. Things could change next year for Balazovich, Henriquez, Canterino, Sands, Enlow but it doesn't look good at this point. Losing Povich and Hajjar leaves the only potential fast mover as Prielipp from this years draft and we don't really know how durable he will end up being either. This team is going to be in a tough spot if they can't draft and develop more guys like Joe Ryan. Constantly trading away your farm for 1.5 years of a pitcher is not a great strategy moving forward. Not sure how they are going to get out of this mess but hopefully this years draft is a really good one and they need to replenish the pitching pipeline next year or there won't be much of one. I still like this FO for the most part but if they want to keep their jobs long term I think they are going to have to do better than they have been.
  6. Dman
    Sands was better last year in AA than Varland this year though he was injured a few times and got extra rest. Still Sands hasn't shown much at the AAA level and I have him more as a reliever than starter as he has trouble staying healthy as a starter. Sands is a good two pitch pitcher I think the pen is the best place for him and it looks like he\we will get a chance to see how that works out as he was just called up to replace Duffy.
  7. Dman
    I think the hitting core looks pretty darn good. You have Miranda, Lewis, Larnach, Kirilloff, Celestino, technically Gordon and Arraez as well. With Wallner and Palacios at AAA close to ready as well. Down the line you have Martin, Jullien, Severino, Isola with maybe Williams and Camargo. Then Rodriguez, Urbina, Miller, Aguiar, Rosario at low A with Urbina and Rodriquez possibly fast movers. That is a lot of hitting talent at the MLB level and down the line and I am not even including the recently drafted guys or FSL or DSL guys. Top of the rotation pitching, however, looks pretty barren to me. Unless of course things change for Enlow, Sands, Balazovich, Henriquez etc. While Varland and SWR look OK they look more like 5th starters than mid rotation. I don't see a single pitcher that looks like a mid rotation arm until you get to Raya at low A. So once again I see pitching as a weakness in this system unless some magic happens with the players mentioned above. There are plenty of arms that look like strong candidates for the pen like Canterino, Sisk, Sands, Lawyerson, etc. however, I don't see a lot of high octane pen arms in the system. I guess Cruz would be one but his control has been horrible. Maybe Canterino can up the velo from the pen and he has 4 pitches he could use as well. So it is pretty much the same old same old. They need more pitching and IMO they should prioritize it earlier in the draft like Cleveland generally does. They did in 2021 and now teams have picked off the 1st three pitchers they took in the draft in rounds 1, 2, and 3. Hopefully they can work some trades in the offseason to replenish some of the lost MiLB pitching depth but they should have plenty of bats to trade if it comes down to needing to do that.
  8. Dman
    He has been the most consistent prospect arm at the upper levels this year. Still his FIP, xFIP and WHIP all say he is going to need to find another gear to make it to MLB. I do agree though that given the results this year he would be next in line for a callup from AAA next year unless SWR shows something in the second half. Really need a lot of guys to step up next year (Enlow, Sands, Henriquez, and Balazovich). There is not much for arms right behind them right now with the 2021 class pretty much wiped out.
  9. Dman
    Yeah I don't disagree that their strategy is to take arms later but other than Winder has there been much success there? Certainly no top of the order success. The interesting thing to me is the one year 2021 when they take a pitcher in rounds 1-3 they all became important pieces in the trades they made. While I get picking pitchers is risky they have enough bats that they should take more risk early on in the draft. If not to develop then to at least trade based on the greater potential those arms have. Not having that third round pick kind of hurt this draft IMO but I didn't see all these trades coming either. It is just hard not to see much mid to top rotation starters in the system right now.
  10. Dman
    Congrats to the under the radar Paredes. Quite a find at number 18 IMO. He has pretty much been this consistent all year and is worthy of a call up. I don't know how he does it as he doesn't K a ton of guys but he gets the job done with a low WHIP and low ERA. Not sure how long that pitch mix will play but he has been very effective at Low A.
  11. Dman
    I was hoping they were going to go a bit more pitcher heavy in the 2022 draft. Other than Prielipp I don't see anything that really pops out. Hopefully Morris is worth his 4th round slot money. Other than possibly Lewis it looks more like bullpen arms than starters so pitching could be a challenge in the future. I am betting they go pitcher heavy in 2023. For next year the Twins are really going to be banking on Sands, SWR, Canterino, Balazovich, Enlow and Henriquez to have bounce back seasons or they have nothing worth while at the top of the farm system. Varland has been solid but far from elite IMO and Headrick has yet to adjust to AA. Festa looks great against righties but he needs to find something more for lefties and while he has been a rock on the mound with his slight frame I wonder if he is better as a reliever. You have to drop down to A ball and below to get excited about Raya and maybe Nowlin. We haven't seen what MacCleod can do yet but hoping his arm comes back strong from TJ. Laras looks like he could be something but is still in the DSL. The Twins need the pitchers at the top to step up and start knocking on the big league door otherwise it looks like there will be a gap in the pitching pipeline. Hitting prospects still looks good me. I think you have Miller too high. Rodriquez is way better all the way around. Not even close IMO. I like Miller just not that high but could you imagine a future infield with three switch hitters in Miller, Severino and Lee? That could be pretty cool. I think some guys that could be on this list our Isola who has been forgotten due to injury but was having a really good year with the bat until then. Aquiar is similar to Rosario with power, almost no walks and ton of K's but better contact skills with an OPS of .884 at low A where average OPS is in the 700's. Rucker has been on fire although in SSS at high A but definitely someone to watch. Jose Rodriguez who currently has a 1.007 OPS in the DSL is another bat to watch not to mention a pretty bat heavy draft with 4 of the first 6 picks going to hitters. With two interesting hitting catchers at picks 11 and 12. We'll have to wait and see what the 2022 class can do but we could use some diamonds in the rough now that the top of the 2021 draft has been picked over.
  12. Dman
    Totally with you Doc. I like Duffy as a person and a player and have a ton of respect for the guy, but the harsh reality is a team needs to put their best collection of arms in the pen and I honestly don't think Duffy fits in that group anymore. MLB is very competitive and you can't afford to drop games because you hope someone might return to form and he has been getting hit hard when he is out there. Especially when there are guys that look as good or better right there behind him. Maybe they are keeping him around as a wait and see on a Maeda or Winder return as they see Moran as injury insurance? Not sure but unless something changes I still see him as the weakest link right now.
  13. Dman
    The Twins seem to be the only team in the division to not care that much about the pen. The White Sox are always trying to make their pen as strong as possible as a strong pen coupled with decent starting pitching leads to lot's of wins. If you have a pen that more often than not can hold one run leads that helps a lot. Detroit has a good pen. The Indians have a good pen. I think KC has a good pen can't remember. It seems like the Twins were the only team with hardly any high octane arms and lots of smoke and mirrors guys. I think what they did should help but they need to keep up with the competition when it comes to bullpen arms. I will echo USA Chief in that I think Moran (a Lefty) is a better choice ( makes the pen stronger) than Duffy. I can understand the reluctance as Duffy has been better recently but he still is the weakest link IMO. I hope the Twins find harder throwing bat missing guys for the pen as they are going to need them to keep up with a division that knows the value a lock down pen has.
  14. Dman
    Wow what a tough spot to put the the new callup in. Two outs in the top of the 9th with the game on the line and I think he was down to his last strike? That is one life story he will have in his back pocket forever. Baseball is one crazy storyline almost every night. Helman, Palacios and Severino keep their hot streaks going. Nowlin looks like he might have been a find in the later rounds as well. We still have good prospects even after all of the trades.
  15. Dman
    The Twins could really use him to start the year next year and shortstop depth in general. Even after the brutal start to the year he had his OPS at 823 which is not bad either. Really liking the extra base hits and power he seems to have now. He is a legit backup shortstop and if the bat is for real honestly he could be a legit shortstop. So yeah I hope he can keep it up as well. We need him to succeed.
  16. Dman
    Agreed but they haven't added the newly drafted players so it will look a little better soon.
  17. Dman
    Thanks! I haven't followed him much and could not remember what his speed was like. Might have gotten him mixed up with Michael Davis as I think they came in together in the same draft. Didn't even know they had him playing in center. I just started looking closer at him when they moved him to AAA and I think he had a good start there and then slumped a bit. After his 525 OPS in 2019 I kind of thought that might be it for Helman. He had a solid 2021 but was old for the level. He ticked the bat up another level this year and he has some power now. I like your comp with Gordon but do you think the Twins would add Helman to the 40 man after this year?
  18. Dman
    We think way too much a like. Every time I count Gordon out he does something really good. He is great in the club house, is an amazing Swiss army knife position player and the FO loves him. I think he is here for the long haul unless his bat completely disappears. Helman is not overly fast IIRC. Probably Steer speed or less I think. Certainly not Gordon type speed. Not even sure he will be added to the 40 man but if he pumps that OPS into the 900 range maybe things change.
  19. Dman
    Totally agree on Rucker. He didn't look all that great to me at Low A. Thought he might be a bust and now he and Severino are battling it out with 900 OPS's I still favor moving up Severino because he is a Switch hitter which is valuable and he is Rule V eligible so best to know if he is worthy of protection or not.
  20. Dman
    Helman with an amazing night. 5 for 5 is magically dialed in. His bat slumped in July but it looks like he wants to make up for it in August. Helman is interesting as he appears to be pretty close to a Spencer Steer clone only 2 years older. They both started at AA with Steer outperforming him there but in AAA their numbers are very, very close. At 26 he is probably not really considered a prospect anymore but he has a pretty balanced approach decent power and solid defense IIRC. Losing Steer hurt but Helman could probably fill that role equally well if given the chance.
  21. Dman
    Yeah they could bump Severino up to AA and then move Jullien to AAA. Maybe they could start Lee at High A? Or they could move Mikey Perez from Low A to high A as well. technically they have enough infielders at high A as it is with Javier, Rucker and Holland who also plays centerfield so they would be fine even if Severino moved up. Probably would balance the system more moving those two players.
  22. Dman
    For the Twins to have any chance down the stretch this was pretty much an absolute need. Steer was slightly blocked and CES has not shown much on defensive side of the ball. Hajjar has one elite pitch and the rest is to be determined.so really hard to say what was given up there just yet. All three prospects have really good potential to be good to very good MLB players. I am a prospect lover and hate losing them but giving up on the division in a year where the Twins have positioned themselves into 1st place doesn't make sense either. They needed to do something and Mahle was in the top tier of pitchers to get at the deadline and at least we didn't have to pay the price Seattle did. I followed Steer as he moved up each level and his balanced approach at the plate along with his power and good defense will be missed. I think he will be a very solid MLB player. With Polanco, Arraez, Gordon, and Miranda already in the way and with Jullien, Severino and his likely replacement the newly drafted Lee behind him, it was OK to let him go for something we needed. I hated the CES pick in the draft and thought it was a mistake pick. After watching him, I have absolutely loved what this guy brings to the plate. Yes he still needs some work on the K rate but he barrels a lot of balls and has never had an OPS lower than 900 in the system. He moved up two levels this year and technically could be moved up a third as he has had no trouble adjusting to AA. I think he is a star in the making at DH or 1st base. A Nelson Cruz type bat that will be good for a long time. I think it is tough to lose a bat like that for a year and a half of Mahle but the Twins needed to do something and credit the Reds for finding a top 100 bat before the pundits see it. In the end I think the Twins will regret losing him but for the right here, right now to get what they needed it had to be done. Hajjar hasn't pitched much this year and has been injured twice already. That change is elite and if he can stay healthy I believe he is a starter but with arm troubles this early in there seems like a fair bit a of reliever risk although with that change he could be an elite lefty reliever. I always hate losing prospects but there are others who can cover for losing some of the picks. We needed another starter for this year and next year. Let's hope a pitching pipeline develops in our lifetime and we don't have to make trades like this.
  23. Dman
    This is what you get forced to do when you don't make getting higher octane arms a priority and just role with what you have in the offseason. I hate losing Povich who had a decent chance to be a good lefty starter and most certainly a solid bullpen arm. Cano while not perfect could end being a very productive reliever for the O's and if they can make Cano work he could be a good get in and of himself. If not then they still have Povich. The last time a team dipped into our FSL pool I believe the Yankee's managed to get Luis Gil a hard throwing youngster with upside so those lottery tickets could turn into something as well. You just never know. That being said Cano wasn't going to help the Twins in the right here, right now and in the end might have been lost for nothing. So if he was something that moved the needle on this trade then at least that is something. The two lottery tickets are a looong ways a way and the odds they make it slim. If that is what it took then you just do it. It hurts to lose Povich but this team absolutely, positively needed some help on the back end and this guy looks like a good bet to help put the Twins over the hump right now. Ultimately I like this trade for the Twins. They get an asset they desperately need for this season and the next two. He is a hard thrower to compliment Duran and if Alcala ever returns then the Twins have three hard throwers to put out there a long with Jax and maybe Canterino next year as well. This is a solid move to help the pen long term and also give this team a chance at the division this year. Baring injury I am certain the O's will win this trade long term but when you make trades for the present you lose the future that is just the way this works. Kind of nice to be on this end of it for a change though.
  24. Dman
    This addition should help as he keeps the ball in yard. Not a great K rate but not bad either. Fullmer should be someone who is dependable as a rental to help shore up the pen. I have been a big Sawyer Gipson-Long backer and he has slowly moved up levels but given he was going to be Rule V eligible and not likely added to the 40 man with a decent chance to get picked this is a good way to use an asset. Twins must be banking on rebounds from SWR, Balazovich, Henriquez, Enlow and Canterino for next year as thing are thinned out for impact pitching with Petty, Hajjar and Povich being traded this year. I guess they are banking on Prielipp moving fast and replacing one of the two lefties lost and let's hope they found diamonds in the rough down the line to fill the gaps at various levels from the 2022 draft. Given all the controllable starters they have for next year in Gray, Maeda, Ryan and Mahle with Paddack back later in the year they should be in a good place for starting pitching for at least one more year. Let's hope that pipeline starts pumping out young arms sooner rather later.
  25. Dman
    Like all trades it is a bittersweet result. I was fine giving up Steer he was going to need to be added to the 40 man and there wasn't a ton of room to play him and there are guys coming up behind him. Hajjar is a nice arm but a ways a way and I think there is reliever risk there. Always hate losing good lefties of which the Twins now have virtually none left. The gut punch though is Strand. He doesn't need to be added for a while and he has those Miranda bat to ball skills that likely will make him an elite hitter. He could be the Reds next Joey Votto IMO. I really think he might be that good. If they hadn't included him I would right as rain with this trade but IMO they got hijacked on this one. I sure hope Mahle is as good as advertised because Cinci got a haul there. Can't say the Twins are not in it to win it with two very good pitchers added to the roster. I sure hope these moves pay off short and longer term. Man that must have been one heck of a draft in 2021 as other teams picked 4 of the 5 players off of it already.
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