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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I like OBP best as the name of the game on offense is not making outs. If you are not making an out you are contributing to the offense. You are putting pressure on the pitcher and give the next man up a chance to do the same. Doesn't matter if it is a walk, single or HR the bottom line is that it isn't an out. As this article points out slugging is important as well because doubles, triples and HR's either put runners in scoring position or score runs if anyone else is on base. OPS really is kind of king right now and as the OP pointed out it doesn't really matter how you get there OPS tells a more complete story where offensive contribution is concerned. Personally I like both the Arraez and Gallo approaches as teams have been built with high average and power strokes for ages. There is a reason why your teams HR king bats 4th. Both types of hitters are important IMO but I do feel the OP is correct that batting average doesn't give you a very complete picture of the true value a player has as it eliminates slugging completely. OPS is the only way to combine the three aspects to gain a more complete picture. Still not perfect but far, far better than batting average.
  2. Dman
    Amazing that that the Fort Meyers pitchers walked no one the entire game. I think that stands out to me more than anything. They only K'd 9 guys so the ball was in play a fair bit but Tampa couldn't buy a hit. Interesting that our hitters K'd 13 times but also walked 7 times so they were working counts but could not manage an extra base hit just singles. Hard fought game on both sides but a no hitter pretty much trumps everything in baseball unless you give up walks and or have a huge error there is no way to score runs. The top of that lineup with Ortega, Shuffiled and Cossetti has to be tough for opposing teams. Although they did leave a lot of men on base in clutch situations this time out. Some nice bats that need to move up the end of this month for sure.
  3. Dman
    I think you have a good point for top 10. You look at Wallners stats and Severino's and they appear to be similar players at the plate. Both pretty aggressive with K rates around 30% and walk rates around 10%. Both can hit home runs and hit the ball hard. Wallner is rated number 7 on the MLB site and Severino doesn't even make the list. Yet Severino had a better walk rate, K rate and similar OPS to Wallner and to top it off he is younger than Wallner and a switch hitter as well. I think he is under rated right now and will probably continue to be until he proves it for another half year at Double A. Still, given his stats have been pretty steady the past 3 years I don't think top 10 is out of the question right now. He doesn't stack up to Jullien quite as well from a plate discipline perspective but his power is equal to Julliens and his defense likely a little better although both are not real strong fielders IIRC. At any rate if he keeps this up I think the Twins will need to find room for him. A switch hitter with that kind of power is just too good to lose to Rule V. Not sure where he fits on the MLB team but they need to hang onto him.
  4. Dman
    Yeah I am hoping they somewhat repeat the 2021 draft by taking pitching high and low in the draft. Granted 1st round pick is likely a position player this year but then swap comp pick for pitcher throw in a position player that maybe has fallen and keep picking arms as the system needs more of them after trading away most the 2021 top end pitchers.
  5. Dman
    Larnach did it all last night. Hitting, walking, defense. That bump form AAA to MLB is a doozy so hopefully he just gets his confidence back and is ready when his next opportunity arrives. I think De Andrade is passing Miller for me. De Andrade's hit tool looks better and I believe he can be solid at short as well. Miller seems to be falling into the same funk as last year. Should be good competition between those two. Don't know much about Aria but hoping the Twins found another good arm.
  6. Dman
    Man Farmer has some guts. I just don't think I would be the same hitter after taking a pitch to the face. He just seems fearless in the box coming back. If I were him I would have taken more time but he is proving he is ready to go. He certainly has my admiration. I have liked everything about this guy.
  7. Dman
    Really happy to see Carlos come up with the big hit in a big spot. That hit was the game winner. Hopefully he gets hot and stays hot.
  8. Dman
    I'm not ready to give up on him just yet but it feels like a lot of hitters have been swinging outside the zone and struggling with just basic contact. You would like to think he should have some answers there. I would wait longer as the weather is warming up hopefully the bats do the same.
  9. Dman
    Man, Helman has started with a bang. If he keeps on getting those extra base hits the Twins are going to have to find room on the 40 man. With only a 13% K rate and 11% walk rate he is starting to look a bit like Spencer Steer, a very well rounded hitter. Like Steer he just needed to add a little more pop to the bat and I think he has shown that last year and so far this year but in a SSS. Just needs to keep it going and he should get his shot. Ortega with a really nice night as well. hard to go 4 for 4 and he is one of the few guys batting .300 in A ball. Cossetti has cooled down quite a bit but catchers have it tough especially as the season wears on. Happy to see Cruz back in A ball and hoping this year is better than last year for him. He has the tools just needs to up the contact. Lot's of good hitting and some solid pitching for a change. Here is hoping guys are starting to catch fire.,
  10. Dman
    I have been a big believer after last years numbers solidified he was a very good pitcher. You look at his number versus Varland's in the same league and there is not all that much difference. Not sure why he was so under the radar but he looks like he can be a good lefty arm that can help. I still think he can start but maybe the fastball just doesn't play up enough? Given the success he has had so far he seems like a lock for the pen. Hoping he is another piece of the piuzzle\solution for the Twins.
  11. Dman
    I really like the new format for the weekly summary. Very thorough and full of good information on the ups and downs of the players. To be honest there are quite a few guys I am disappointed in. Guys like Urbina and Cavaco who I thought would have a chance at redemption for past struggles are still struggling. Guys like Prato and Isola who haven't been as good as they were last year. There are several others that could be named but those are the main ones for me. Still time to catch fire but time is running out for some of these guys. Hard for me to argue with the picks of the week but I have been impressed with Ohl and Rosario. Both could be breakout candidates this year. Still a long way to go. Hoping for more success stories early on but the sometimes it takes until the second half of the season to see major improvement from some players. The system is pretty week on pitching especially at the AA level so not surprised they are having a down year.
  12. Dman
    We will have to wait and see how he does but I have Lewis taking Solano's spot as that would be a righty for a righty. With Kirilloff and Polanco back I think it does take an injury before we see Jullien back. Unless of course they maybe move Buck off of DH. Maybe if they end up moving MIranda down they could find a way to rotate in Jullien? It just looks tough to do without an Injury to me.
  13. Dman
    After a brutal start Rosario has his OPS back to .800. HIs walk rate has been really good which is good to see. Once that Home run power kicks in he could be a stud corner outfielder. Aguiar continues to surprise. K rate is still a bit high but he has an .800 OPS with good power. Walk rate is OK but could be just a bit better. Hopefully he can keep it going all year. Fajardo continues to hit and with a sub 20% K rate he is makes good contact. More of singles hitter but he does have a couple of Home Runs as well. If he ups his game just a bit more I see a promotion to AAA in his future. Lot's of bats with tough starts but the weather is warming so should be no excuses now. Hoping some guys go on hot streaks this month.
  14. Dman
    Hell of a game by Ober. If he and Varland are for real and the pen can stop giving up runs this team looks really tough to me.
  15. Dman
    Ohl doesn't like to walk anyone so you better be ready in the box. Really nice job by him tonight. The guys have to know strikes are coming and if they can't hit him that bodes well for Ohl's future. I know he doesn't have an elite fastball but he really knows how to pitch. Hoping he continues to dominate. A lot of walks (3) but Ross continues to look good at the plate. He might be a genius pick but the Twins scouting department. Still has a long ways to go and needs to work on power but he looks like he is going to continue to produce all the way up to me.
  16. Dman
    Really nice summary! Not much to add except I feel the pen is not as strong as hoped. Maybe Stewart is someone who can help a little there? Need the arms to stay healthy and this team looks pretty good.
  17. Dman
    Man I knew Varland was good but those peripheral numbers are downright dominant. If that translates to MLB then what a find he was. Really hard to know what to expect from pitchers drafted past the first 3 rounds or so. Still I didn't see Matthews being the best of those picked to start the season. Hopefully he can moce up fairly soon since his pitch mix seems so effective he looks like he could be a fast mover. There is always at least one surprise in a draft class and it looks like he might be one of them.
  18. Dman
    Bummed that Rodriguez had a very tough go of it this week. I still think he can be MLB relief pitcher but he needs to be more consistent if he wants to get there. Hoping for a rebound this coming week Farjardo sure is fun to watch hit. It might mainly be singles but he is a really tough out. He doesn't walk enough to have Arraez skills but his bat to ball skills look like they might be one of the best at AA with maybe Lee being the exception as he and Lee have similar walk and K rate numbers. Lee can hit for power so his OPS is better but right now their bat to ball skills look pretty much the same. Farjardo is the only one with a .300 average at Wichita will have to see if he stays this hot or not. I keep thinking that K rate is going to hurt Severino and he just keeps keeps getting extra base hits. 38% K rate is going to take over at some point though. Also BABIP of .400 so regression is coming just a matter of time at this point. Still he is a very interesting bat. Will be fun to see how he does this year. Ben Ross continues to look like a steal. Still a lot of levels to go but so far all the numbers look good. Would be nice to have more walks and few less K's but his range is still good especially for the first month in cold and windy weather. Could Reggie Grace finally be for real? The K rate, FIP and xFIP seem to be lining up. His WHIP and ERA are both sub 1. The only thing that looks a bit ugly is his strand rate is high so likely some regression there but with a WHIP and ERA that low it hardly matters right now IMO. Some good weeks and with the weather warming up in May there should be improvements made for lot's of other guys.
  19. Dman
    April can be a tough month for hitters especially up North with the wind and cold. I expect that as the weather warms more players will have better results. That being said the guys that start out well early generally continue to have good seasons and get moved up early. Nice to see a catcher leading the charge with a good month of hitting. I am sure we will see him move up around the end of May if he keeps this up. If the defense is there he should be a top 30 prospect soon. Severino can hit the ball hard. If he K'd less and walked more he could be an elite bat. Like Jullian he doesn't really have a position other than 2nd base and Jullien is ahead of him especially with the eye at the plate. It is gonna be interesting to see just how well Severino does. Wallner and Contreras both doing well at AAA. Doesn't look like much room for either player right now but it is a long season so it is nice to know the Twins have solid options if needed.
  20. Dman
    I wouldn't sleep on the Guardians just yet. They have had starting pitching injuries I believe Civale and McKensie also Pleasac and Quantrel are off to slow starts. They have had position player injuries as well. They are bringing up their young stud pitching though and I think they had two AAA pitcher in the top 100 so that could change things for them. Last year they started off slow and finished very strong. I suspect the same thing will happen this year. One more thing they haven't played any games against KC yet so they have a chance to catch up real quick once they play them. I don't understand why the White Sox are this bad. They have a good rotation and decent pen but with all the talented position players they have they are very inconsistent at the plate and generally play poor defense. Unless they kick in gear real quick the best scenario seems to be a .500 team. Twins have their flaws as well but hopefully the built in depth and keeping players healthy helps them win more games to build the division lead. and keeps them from falling off a cliff at the end of the season. Lot's of baseball left. Here's hoping the Twins bats are better in the month of May.
  21. Dman
    The board looks about right to me or at least what I see when out on various sites. Also stat wise hard to argue with it right now. Like last year though I expect some high school kids to rise up in the draft but it is gonna be hard to crack the top 5. Crews looks amazing and Langford not too far off his numbers. Skenes has been dominant. Clark possibly a five tool player and Jenkins is right there with him except he has power. I guess I like Wilson better than where he is on the list but Maybe that is the Arraez effect? Wilson might not have power but the ability to not strike out and have a good eye at the plate is very valuable as well. Not to mention it looks like he could stick at short. All I know is that there are going to great players at number 5 no matter how they fall on the board.
  22. Dman
    Glad to see Funderburk finally end up at AAA where IMO he should have started the year. His strand rate, WHIP and FIP are a little concerning but he has improved his K rate considerably so far this year and his ERA of 1.00 means he has been getting outs when he needs them. I think he has been a very under rated player throughout his time in the minors. IMO he works best as a pen arm but we will see. He has been fine as starter to this point as well. Congrats to Kody on the promotion and now he is just one step away from making the MLB club.
  23. Dman
    A couple of things I wondered about in the Yankee series is they are down two pretty top notch starters and if they were healthy that could have made a big difference in the outcome of the series and their lineup seems as inconsistent as ours to start the season. I think playing them early might have been the advantage the Twins needed to take the series. Otherwise I think the streak would have continued at least IMO. Still you have to play when you have to play regardless of who is hurt and I am happy the Twins came out on top. It was fun to come out on top after 20 years of seeing things go the other way. I agree with you that the other big difference in this series was the Twins starting pitching which for the most part held their lineup to very few runs (sans the Maeda start). I also agree that right now today as things stand the Twins look better than the Yankee's. That could easily change once they get Rodon back and their lineup heats up. Still I have hope that this Twins team can play with the big boys now..
  24. Dman
    No thanks for me on Nimalla at number 5. Better off going for bat first players when picking high. I have seen too many 4 tool players with all the physical skills except the bat never make it. Latest example would be Cavaco. Hitting the stuff pitchers throw today is hard enough that even bat first prospects can struggle. If they want to take a chance in latter rounds I could see it but I am hoping they go with more pitching in the higher rounds this year.
  25. Dman
    You look at that St Paul lineup and it looks good top to bottom. Almost a mini MLB lineup with Jullien, Kirilloff, Garlick and Wallner at the top and Helman, Contreras and Wolters followed by Bechtold and Williams. Gonna have to pitch well to keep all those bats down. By the way Contreras is having a heck of start hitting .314 with 907 OPS Hopefully he can keep it going. Also nice to see Balazovich continue to pitch well. Given how well he has pitched I assume they will start stretching him out soon? He looks like he might be back to his old self. Jones pitched really well last night. Hoping he keeps that up. The bats at High A continue to struggle but seem to be coming around. Awesome to get 4 wins and lot's of hits for the good guys. Lot's of players starting to look better as we get close to May.
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