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Dman

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Everything posted by Dman

  1. Dman
    I am pessimistic about their chances. I think putting up this pen against good to really good teams is going to be their downfall. They have a three game set coming up with the Dodgers and Yankee's where it will be tough to find wins and they face Cleveland a bunch in July as well. I don't like their odds of being all that close at the end of July, but yeah baseball is a strange sport in that teams can go on winning and losing streaks that defy the odds. So who knows. They are going to be getting some arms back so that could help things. They have been hitting pretty well lately so that bodes well for winning games. Still this team in general has been maddening in its ups and downs. Certainly not as bad as Detroit or KC,, but this team still seems to be trying to find themselves. It is pretty early to say what shape they will be in by the end of July, but I still think the odds are against them making the playoffs. I certainly wouldn't waste assets adding guys, but they could stand pat and take their chances if they are close to a wild card spot.
  2. Dman
    Raya for the month of June. 8 innings pitched, 0.0 Era, 7 K's and a WHIP of 0.50. It sure looks like he is angling for a callup. They will probably give him to the end of the month to see if he can keep this up, but if he does keep this going I bet we see him in July.
  3. Dman
    Totally agree with Doc. Happy he was willing to return. He was a big part of that St. Paul team. If I were him I would try and focus on getting to more power while at St. Paul. That might catch the Twins or another teams eye.
  4. Dman
    Yeah I am with you. The sample will be too small for a team to give up a Varland or Jax type haul and selling low on him makes little sense for the Twins. I feel pretty confident they will hang onto him. Although I said that about Varland as well. Also I mean what could a team offer you that would be much better than Gomez if this is the true Gomez? He has 5 to 6 years of cheap control and has proven he can get guys out in high leverage situations. I guess like a close to ready arm that profiles as a starter instead of a reliever? I just don't think teams will be willing to give "fair" value based on two months of good performance out of the pen. If Tom is correct and he turns into a pumpkin again then maybe we miss our window, but right now he looks just like the find we needed. Still a long ways to go to the deadline, but I don't see him getting traded this year.
  5. Dman
    That might be how the Twins feel as well. They really like him, but its been two years of diminished velocity and in season arm soreness. It feels like moving on might be best IMO, but not gonna say you are wrong just that I see it differently.
  6. Dman
    I'd just hate to see Jeffers in pinstripes, but a trade seems inevitable. If Jackson could find his way to a .750 OPS it would make losing Jeffers a little easier. It looks like Jackson is the future until the Twins find some other young guy that work out there. Despite the lack of production I like Bell, but agree it would be best for him to go, so younger players can get a chance. Probably makes sense to move on from Rogers as well so they give other guys a chance in the pen. He's been pretty much as advertised. Not gonna net much. Maybe some lottery tickets from the DSL or something. I like Larnach and wouldn't trade him unless they got a decent offer. He could be in the Bell roll next year if they can't find a return they like, but trading him makes sense as they have said they want better defenders in the outfield and they need to Keep Rodriguez on the 26 man next year as he is out of options and they have Roden who is pretty much ready as well. Moving on from Larnach would help make room there. I'm a bit torn on Banda. Twins have a hard time finding decent lefty arms and while he hasn't been lights out until recently I think with a pen this bad they should probably hang onto him. That being said they got him for international money so if someone wanted to give us something decent I could see the Twins moving him. I might be one those guys who values his own players too much, but I wouldn't trade Gomez at this time. He is only 26 with tons of service time left. If he is just average that's a win and right now he is much better than average. I am 50/50 on Clemens. Given his age it seems like selling high could make some sense. If he truly is a late bloomer he would be an asset for this teams future as well. So I don't know. I think it would take an overpay for me to move him and again I acknowledge I probably value him too highly. I don't see them trading Lewis. So far I have liked what I have seen from him at 1st base. Nice to have a tall, strong athletic target there. I am going to bet on him continuing to hit and stay a part of this team. I might regret saying this but if the Twins can get a haul for Ryan they probably should do it. With so much uncertainty going into 2027 and the Twins not known for extending pitchers much past age 30 they might as well get what they can and hope a couple of these young guys can somewhat fill his shoes. That's my two cents.
  7. Dman
    I said the same thing about Paddack last year and he netted Jimenez. Granted Paddack could throw over 90 mph. There very well might not be a market for him, but it would be addition by subtraction for the 26 man if they could trade him.
  8. Dman
    I am pretty sure they move Houston to AA at the end of this week as last year they moved Culpepper up to AA on June 21st. For those worried about Houston's bat Culpepper hit .293/.385/.479 for an OPS of .864 at High A in 2025 and Houston is currently hitting .329/.405/.468 for an OPS of .873. Culpepper had the better slugging, but Houston the better batting average. So at least at High A they look like pretty similar bats. We'll see how things look when he moves up to AA. At any rate He will be at AA soon.
  9. Dman
    I think this a good exercise to think about the future. Personally I think there are two ways this could go. It feels like Tom Pohlad wants this team to be a winner sooner rather than later so I am not so sure Ryan will be traded. If not traded the Twins could role out one of the better rotations in their division with Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Abel and Preilipp. I think that's a rotation that would give the team a great chance to win every game. It would be a one year all the chips in move as both Ryan and Lopez would likely get qualifying offers and be gone after 2027. Still if Tom wants to win right away that seems like the best way to do it IMO. The other way would be to trade Ryan for a close to ready arm and some other assets and move on with Lopez, Bradley, Abel, Preilipp, and Mathews or Rojas. That's still a good rotation and there is a chance Quick or Gallagher or someone they trade for might be able to be depth by mid 2027. In this scenario you sell high on Ryan and hopefully come away with good future assets without too much damage being done. You still lose Lopez at the end of 2027, but hopefully you have arms like Soto and Hill close to ready for 2028. I'd also see if they can trade Ober at this years deadline regardless of either scenario. The velocity is down and I just think they have better options for the 26 man moving forward. If they can get something decent I'd move him. I agree Paredes is a pen arm and if Festa can ever come back from the shoulder injury he would be a pen arm. I think Morris stays in the pen as well. I think the Twins will have decent depth when it comes to arms next year and into the future and if they are active at the trade deadline they can add to that depth. Given that guys like Paredes and Rojas seem like pen arms that can give you some long relief when needed adds to that depth. So in conclusion while we have ten arms that could be starters the reality is several of those are likely pen arms or can certainly be used in the pen as the Twins find the best starting five. The few left over provide depth that will be needed. There is no surplus here IMO.
  10. Dman
    I will say the Buxton deal has been a roller coaster ride for me. I was one of many who cheered that deal as fair for both sides and admired Byron for being willing to make such a deal. Then he was injured so much right after that I felt that I may have been wrong. That he could never be fixed and the money was wasted. Right now here today I hope he never leaves. He is the one indispensable player on this team. His kind of team loyalty just doesn't happen much anymore. I have great admiration for the man who loves my team as much as I do. My only wish is that the team that looked like it might be coming together after his deal could have realized its potential instead of falling apart. If he stays healthy it would be nice to see him make more money as well. I wish nothing but good things for the player I love to watch at the plate and in the field. I hope he stays a Twin for the rest of his career.
  11. Dman
    Since none of the affiliates are really in it for the first half I had Rosario and Amick moving from AA to AAA. I had Houston, Diaw, Thomason and maybe shakily Winokur from High A to AA. I had Jimenez, Fragoza and Sprock moving from A to high A. And finally from the FCL I had Carabello, Reyes and Almanzer moving to A ball. A bit surprised it was Pena instead of Carabello that got moved. Seemed to me most of those players deserved a chance to move up based on performance with capable replacements as others moved up. We'll see what happens the next few weeks. Happy to see Diaw get to AA. I thought they might have started him there this year, but getting just a few months later isn't that big of a deal either. Jimenez moving up is good to see as well. He seems to be a capable defender and has hit the ball well too. Happy to see him moving along.
  12. Dman
    Yeah I think there is prospect fatigue for all the reasons listed. Plus age has an impact when ranked in the upper 50. He is only 23 now but with most of this year wasted and being 24 next year he is getting up there in age. Another great point mentioned by @bean5302is his in Zone swing and miss is pretty high and the main thing offsetting it is walks which he won't get as much at the MLB level. There's some Wallner sized warts here, but he has strong exit velocities and a good eye so there is a chance he can overcome some of those weaknesses. This is two years in a row where he likely would have been called up, but can't because he is injured. Now being out of options he might be in sink or swim mode which is less than ideal for his development. Does anyone know if he would qualify for one more option year due to the amount of time missed to injury? So yeah he has been at a high level and a top prospect for a while, but hasn't moved much in the last three years and has warts in the profile. I'd say there is fatigue and I'd likely drop him down some as well. It doesn't mean much though as they did the same thing to Lewis and he performed well once he moved up. It is just out of site out of mind and a feeling that the player is less likely to reach their potential at the MLB level. Whether that will be true or not depends on Rodriguez.
  13. Dman
    Very happy for Kyler and well deserved IMO. It's really hard to break in to MLB so not expecting too much. Still it will be nice to get a look at him as he has really good power and decent speed and he's a right handed power bat which we are short on in the outfiled. He worked his butt off to get there against very long odds. Glad the Twins are giving hm a chance.
  14. Dman
    My question is if Lackey and Chowlowski are gone in the first two picks is it a given that the Twins take Emerson? There's a lot of Buzz that the Twins like Burress and his exit velocities. His defense is really good as well with 10 outfield assists. While being 5'9" is not ideal in the outfield the Twins drafted Ben Revere who was 5'9" so they have done it before. Revere never had the power that Burress has or the arm so Burress should be a much better version. You look at the tools in total and there's not much difference between him and Emerson. I still think Emerson has the potential higher ceiling, but will he reach it? The Twins need a plan beyond Buxton and Burress might be it. If the Twins want to get a bit more high risk high reward they could go do with a Bobby Witt type player in Lombard. The power grades as elite and could you imagine a world where Lombard and Young are at short and third? That would be quite the power combo. I've heard the hit tool is vastly improved this year, but like Lewis back in the day there are some questions about it. Still if he does reach his ceiling he's an All Star caliber player which are hard to find. If he was willing to deal I could see the Twins grabbing him at 3. And finally if they felt strongly about Flora and saved 1.5M or 2M on grabbing him at three. That might be tempting as well. I still think they go bat as there are so many good one's to choose from and if Cholowsky or Lackey are there at three I think they go with one of them as they have plus tools pretty much across the board. If it's Emerson though I'm not so sure.
  15. Dman
    I blamed the first month of wildness on the cold Cedar Rapids weather and we saw some improvements in May. Still he seems to be struggling at this level giving up 34 hits in 33 innings is a WHIP of 1.00 right there, add in the walks and it is nearly a WHIP of 2.00. So he's giving up hits\contact and walks which is not a good recipe for success. This kind of feels like Marco Raya part II. He starts out behind in the count has to put the ball down the middle and doesn't always get a good result. The other third of the time he just walks the guy and then onto the good part He also has a 32% K rate so he strikes a lot of guys out. Put it all together and you have a WHIP of 1.94 and ERA of 6.82. Not good and to top it off his walk rate is worse this year than last year too. So his command control is not improving at least not statistically. I don't know what the Twins work on with him in bullpens or what the plan is in games, but you'd like to think they could help him a little bit with tips to hit the edges of the plate or do a better of job of getting ahead in the count. I get he has long arms and a slim body that makes the release point just that much harder to repeat effectively, but as others have said if can't do it then he looks like a longer term project and likely reliever. Agree with others that he is only 20 years old. There is a lot of season left. I am still a believer in his high upside talent as he throws hard and gets his K's. Still given the actual regression in walk rate has me doubting him some right now. Nothing a few good games couldn't fix, but if it were me I'd have him focus on strike throwing and see what happens. Maybe he gets hit hard, but at least he is making them earn it. He needs to trust his stuff in the zone especially early in counts as that is what it is going to take to be successful. Easier said than done I know, but I think this kid can do it.
  16. Dman
    I just think the Twins have better options there in Roden, Rodriguez and ultimately Jenkins.
  17. Dman
    For the right deal I'd think about moving Clemens, Larnach and Gomez. Still, they all could easily be retained for next year as well. I don't know that I'd have Larnach in Left, but he could take on the Bell role if there were no palatable deals offered. The Twins have too many outfielders and Wallner and Larnach don't play good defense out there either. Time to look at Roden, Rodriguez and maybe Jenkins if he can ever stay healthy long enough. Clemens if he brings a return better than Castro did last year I could see moving him. He'll need to keep hitting into July to bring back something worthwhile though. If he drops to his typical low 700 OPS not sure the return would be worth moving him unless they don't plan on playing him much next year. I'd be hesitant to trade Gomez given the state of the pen, but if someone if going to offer an Abel, Rojas or Bradley type arm then I'm fine moving on from him. There's a lot of years of control and the Twins have a weak pen so it would take something significant to move him IMO. If a team has world series aspiration's I don't know why they would be adding Rogers. I'd think they would be aiming higher than that, but if they could get something for him then sure go ahead.
  18. Dman
    Duarte was not a name I was familiar with. I'll be adding him to my list with that 2 homer day. Small size and DSL numbers don't mean much but just having power that early is impressive.
  19. Dman
    He's a High School pick not college so 2027 until they have to add him.
  20. Dman
    It probably wouldn't be realistic, but I'd want more than what they got for one half year of Castro. Likely not a top 100 prospect, but maybe a guy somewhere just outside that with some other pieces. If he keeps hitting like this until the deadline with his position flexibility and years of control it would need to be significant to move him IMO. If that OPS drops into the low .700 range then you likely aren't going to get much. You could then decide to move him for a lessor return, but you could just as well keep him too. He needs to make another believe in him to get the value I'd like to see.
  21. Dman
    If the price is right I am on the trade bandwagon. Definitely not giving a versatile player with cheap years of control away for a marginal return even if he is 30. When looking at the 26 man it sure looks like there is room for Kody next year. Jeffers will be gone along with Bell, Gray and likely Arcia. I know they love Kriedler, but if he is back to not being able to get any hits he could be gone. So even if you add Culpepper, maybe Ben Ross and maybe Mendez if he keeps on hitting there is room for Clemens, Still for the right overpay in an effort to help this team get younger I'd be OK trading him. To everyone else's point about keeping him it is a good one. You look at qualified hitters with his OPS and he is in the top 60. You are one of the better hitters in baseball if you can OPS 800 or above. Clemens has been pretty streaky though and his high point in OPS was around mid June last year as well and he fell off considerably. We'll see how he looks as a trade candidate come the deadline.
  22. Dman
    I have my concerns as well and him doing "well" is a very small sample and I have fallen into that trap before. FWIW he only struck out 20% of the time in May it was the 40% in April that had me almost giving up on him. I'm not worried about the power as he has plenty. Contact is the problem and as noted by your ISO number quality contact even harder to come by. I'm still optimistic as he is still just 21 and if he moves up to AA mid season or end of season he is ahead of the average college bat and he has all tools if can get the bat to work for him. Right now it's just one hot month I'd need to see more to be more bullish.
  23. Dman
    Yeah I've been thinking about this as well. I'd think they likely compare to Michael Helman or Spencer Steer. Helman had a .745 OPS last year playing in Center field for Texas. Steer was a little under that in 24 and 25. Both those players showed power late and had good approaches so I think Fedko and Saboto could do something similar. Thing is every now and then you get a Merrifield or Rooker who exceed those expectations. Hard to say what they can be until given a shot. They aren't getting any younger. Maybe take a shot and see what you have and be willing to let them go if it doesn't work out. Can't keep them down there until their almost 30 and expect to get much value from them. I don't expect to see them until after the trade deadline so we'll see how they look until then, but I agree there isn't much more they can do to prove they deserve a shot. This team is getting younger and I'd kind of like to see them stay that way and try to develop the younger players, as it feels like they could have a strong core for a while if several of them work out. I also think the guys coming up will provide better defensive value than some of the older players they have. We'll see what they decide to do, but it might be hard to work in Sabato and Fedko.
  24. Dman
    Jamie you always know your board so I trust you. Still I think I'd prefer Spangler to Horn, but maybe you see what I don't which is that Spangler doesn't make it that far. I'm fine with any of the top three hitters and if it goes as planned right now I think we do get Lackey. Don't love the shorter pitchers, but if it's a needed save money move I'm down with that. I like Rabe at 79. That sounds right up the Twins ally. I think hitter, hitter makes a lot of sense especially if going high school hitter. Still I think I'd like to save pick 43 for an over slot high school pitcher. Preferably a good lefty. Maybe the best ones will all get eaten up in the comp rounds before us, but I'd like to get a potential elite arm to go with the elite bat picked at number 3. Logan Schmidt, Hirschkorn or Borthwick would be names I'd consider there if still on the board. maybe Contreras as well? I'd like the Twins to make this more of a pitcher draft early and late. I feel like they did well with Quick Ellwenger, Reitz and Barr along with their notable late round arms. I'd like to see them focus there as it feels like they have more success there. Also it's early but it seems like they have a good crop of FCL hitters that will likely hang out at A ball next year so might not need as many drafted bats and I'd guess that Beltre and Young will be repeating that level as is. I'd also think that if they are seller's at the deadline they could get some FCL or A ball throw in's if needed to fill out the roster. I just think high quality arms are so important and with so many of our young arms up in the big leagues I'd like to see them replenish the farm with more of them. Also so many arms get hurt you almost need double the amount you think to make it through a season. Every level seems short on arms right now. That might change with some guys coming back from injury but my reasoning still stands. They appear to be good at Identifying good arms early and late in the draft. They should embrace where they find value and find hitters in the margins. It seems like the track record is if they don't find their hitter in the first round they generally don't make it. Very few second round picks have made it as hitters and pretty much nothing after that. Arms they have hit on from almost everywhere in the draft. I'd focus on arms if I were them.
  25. Dman
    Yeah he can handle all six spots and I haven't looked, but I believe he is a plus defender at short. Haven't checked EV's or anything, but if you were going to add a guy he'd be the one with the most versatility so you could fit him in the lineup easier.
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